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DOE OSTI2020

EMIS Agent Simulation Model (Electricity Markets Investment Suite) [SWR-19-56]

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model is an agent-based model developed at NREL for simulating annual investment and retirement decisions of heterogeneous investors in the electricity sector. EMIS-AS is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy and market designs. EMIS-AS not only allows end-users to customize market products and rules, but also to capture investors' heterogeneous financing parameters, technology preferences, beliefs about the future (forecasts), ability to update those forecasts, and risk preferences under uncertainty.

Anwar, Mahammad Bashar↗

NASA NTRS1990

On a production system using default reasoning for pattern classification

This paper addresses an unconventional application of a production system to a problem involving belief specialization. The production system reduces a large quantity of low-level descriptions into just a few higher-level descriptions that encompass the problem space in a more tractable fashion. This classification process utilizes a set of descriptions generated by combining the component hierarchy of a physical system with the semantics of the terminology employed in its operation. The paper describes an application of this process in a program, constructed in C and CLIPS, that classifies signatures of electromechanical system configurations. The program compares two independent classifications, describing the actual and expected system configurations, in order to generate a set of contradictions between the two.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Orientation reversal and the Chern-Simons natural boundary

We show that the fundamental property of preservation of relations, underlying resurgent analysis, provides a new perspective on crossing a natural boundary, an important general problem in theoretical and mathematical physics. This reveals a deeper rigidity aspect of resurgence in a quantum field theory path integral. The physical context here is the non-perturbative completion of complex Chern-Simons theory that associates to a 3-manifold a collection of q-series invariants labeled by Spinc structures, for which crossing the natural boundary corresponds to orientation reversal of the 3-manifold. Our new resurgent perspective leads to a practical numerical algorithm that generates q-series which are dual to unary q-series composed of false theta functions. Until recently, these duals were only known in a limited number of cases, essentially based on Ramanujan’s mock theta functions, and the common belief was that the duals might not even exist in the general case. Resurgence analysis identifies as primary objects Mordell integrals: up to changes of variables, they are Laplace transforms of resurgent functions. Their unique Borel summed transseries decomposition on either side of the Stokes line is simply the unique decomposition into real and imaginary parts. In turn, the latter are combinations of unary q-series in terms of q and its modular counterpart $\overset{\sim }{q}$ , and are resurgent by construction. The Mordell integral is analytic across the natural boundary of the q and $\overset{\sim }{q}$ series, and uniqueness of a similar decomposition which preserves algebraic relations on the other side of the boundary defines the unique boundary crossing of the q series. We demonstrate that this continuation can be efficiently implemented numerically. In the cases where unique mock modular identities are known, they are found by this numerical procedure, but the procedure can go well beyond the known list of identities. A particularly interesting feature of the resurgent approach is that it reveals new aspects, and is very different from other known approaches based on indefinite theta series, Appell-Lerch sums, and representation theory of logarithmic vertex operator algebras.

Chern-Simons theories↗

NASA NTRS2007

Human Activity Behavior and Gesture Generation in Virtual Worlds for Long- Duration Space Missions

A virtual worlds presentation technique with embodied, intelligent agents is being developed as an instructional medium suitable to present in situ training on long term space flight. The system combines a behavioral element based on finite state automata, a behavior based reactive architecture also described as subsumption architecture, and a belief-desire-intention agent structure. These three features are being integrated to describe a Brahms virtual environment model of extravehicular crew activity which could become a basis for procedure training during extended space flight.

Sierhuis, Maarten↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Geochemically Informed Leak Detection (GILD) Model to CO 2 Injection Sites on the United States Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast region possesses great potential for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO 2 storage. A geochemically informed leak detection (GILD) model has been applied to CO 2 injection sites on the Gulf Coast with considerations of measurement variability. The Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County, Texas, was chosen to demonstrate the method. Based on background data from wells in the area, combinations of mineral and fluid compositions were used to create 23 scenarios for the geochemical model. The output from the geochemical model was used to identify sensitive monitoring species, and response functions were generated for these as a function of the CO 2 leakage concentration. The sources of measurement variability for background conditions were characterized from the Jasper aquifer background data, and then normalized using the coefficient of variation of each species across the monitoring wells. Bayesian belief network (BBN) models were constructed, and measurement variability of different levels were added to compare leak detection probabilities. Increasing measurement variability decreased the power to detect a leak of a given size. For a moderately high CO 2 concentration of 0.2 mol/kg, the probability of detecting this leakage effect using pH as the monitoring variable in an aquifer with calcite decreases from 98% (no measurement variability) to 61% (medium variability) to 33% (high variability). The loss in power of the sampling protocol with increasing measurement variability is similar in magnitude when Ca 2+ or HCO 3 - is used as the monitoring parameter, but only for aquifers with calcite.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Public Good or Commercial Opportunity: Case Studies in Remote Sensing Commercialization

The U.S. Government is once again attempting to commercialize the Landsat program and is asking the private sector to develop a next generation mid-resolution remote sensing system that will provide continuity with the thirty-year data archive of Landsat data. Much of the case for commercializing the Landsat program rests on the apparently successful commercialization of high-resolution remote sensing activities coupled with the belief that conditions have changed since the failed attempt to commercialize Landsat in the 1980s. This paper analyzes the economic, political and technical conditions that prevailed in the 1980s as well as conditions that might account for the apparent success of the emerging high-resolution remote sensing industry today. Lessons are gleaned for the future of the Landsat program.

Johnston, Shaida↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modelling the Phanerozoic carbon cycle and climate: constraints from the 87Sr/86Sr isotopic ratio of seawater

A numerical model describing the coupled evolution of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, and strontium has been developed to describe the long-term changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during the Phanerozoic. The emphasis is on the effects of coupling the cycles of carbon and strontium. Various interpretations of the observed Phanerozoic history of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr ratio are investigated with the model. More specifically, the abilities of continental weathering, volcanism, and surface lithology in generating that signal are tested and compared. It is suggested that the observed fluctuations are mostly due to a changing weatherability over time. It is shown that such a conclusion is very important for the modelling of the carbon cycle. Indeed, it implies that the conventional belief that the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate on a long time scale is governed by the balance between the volcanic input of CO2 and the rate of silicate weathering is not true. Rather carbon exchanges between the mantle and the exogenic system are likely to have played a key role too. Further, the increase of the global weathering rates with increasing surface temperature and/or atmospheric CO2 pressure usually postulated in long-term carbon cycle and climate modelling is also inconsistent with the new model. Other factors appear to have modulated the weatherability of the continents through time, such as mountain building and the existence of glaciers and ice sheets. Based on these observations, a history of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during Phanerozoic time, consistent with the strontium isotopic data, is reconstructed with the model and is shown to be compatible with paleoclimatic indicators, such as the timing of glaciation and the estimates of Cretaceous paleotemperatures.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling the mechanism of the photocatalytic reduction of CO 2 to formate promoted by porphyrinic Zr-based metal–organic frameworks

A complete picture of the reaction mechanism responsible for the photocatalytic reduction of CO 2 into formate promoted by the Zr-based porphyrinic MOF-545 (PCN-222) in acetonitrile/triethanolamine (CH 3 CN/TEOA) solutions is provided for the first time by combining experimental and computational approaches. Firstly, we combined the metalation of the porphyrin linkers and the synthesis under microwave conditions of nano-sized materials (150–200 nm) to reach one of the highest CO 2 RR activities under visible light irradiation reported so far for a MOF-based catalyst in terms of formate production (identified in all cases as the sole product), i.e., 6000 μmol g –1 after 4 h for the NanoMOF-545(Fe). A thorough mechanistic study of CO 2 RR is provided afterwards, which elucidated the respective roles of TEOA, porphyrin linkers and Zr 6 -nodes. Photophysical measurements of both metalated and unmetalated MOFs excluded the prevailing belief of ligand-to-Zr 6 cluster charge-transfer state formation, while bulk photolysis proved that the porphyrinic linkers of the MOF promote the photooxidation of TEOA under catalytic conditions. DFT calculations allowed characterization with atomistic detail of a novel reaction mechanism whereby TEOA˙ radicals generated photochemically at the porphyrinic linkers play the crucial role of transferring a formal hydride to a CO 2 molecule activated on a Zr IV center, which acts as a Lewis acid. Notably, this mechanism backed by additional experimental assays explains the experimental activity trends observed upon metalation, on the basis of the ability of the materials to accomplish the photo-oxidation of TEOA. Here, while elucidating the reaction pathways at work in Zr 6 -based MOFs with chromophore linkers, the findings reported herein pinpoint new mechanistic features capable of rationalizing other light-driven reactions making use of TEOA (or structurally related donors) and ultimately, inspire the bottom-up design of new catalysts and catalytic routes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1984

Workshop on Water on Mars

The opening session of the Workshop focused on one of the most debated areas of Mars volatiles research-the size of the planet's past and present bulk water content. Current estimates of the inventory of H2O on Mars range from an equivalent layer of liquid 10-1000 meters deep averaged over the planet's surface. The most recent of these estimates, presented at the Workshop, is based on the now popular belief that the SNC class of meteorites represent actual samples of the Martian crust. From a model of planetary accretion and degassing founded on this assumption, it was determined that the present inventory of H2O on Mars is equivalent to a global layer no more than 50 meters deep. During the discussion generated by this estimate, several investigators expressed reservations about an H2O inventory as small as a few tens of meters, for it appears to directly contradict the seemingly abundant morphologic evidence that Mars is (or has been) water rich. Others, however, argued that the interpretation of much of this morphologic evidence is at best equivocal and that the case for a wet Mars is far from established. Atmospheric water vapor measurements, compiled by Earth based telescopes and the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD), now span a period of over six Martian years. Analysis of this data suggests that the seasonal cycle is governed by both the sublimation and condensation of H2O at the poles and by its adsorption/desorption within the regolith. So far, efforts to simulate the seasonal vapor cycle have failed to reproduce the observed behavior.

Clifford, S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Inference with Sparse and Quantized Communication

Here, we consider the problem of distributed inference where agents in a network observe a stream of private signals generated by an unknown state, and aim to uniquely identify this state from a finite set of hypotheses. We focus on scenarios where communication between agents is costly, and takes place over channels with finite bandwidth. To reduce the frequency of communication, we develop a novel event-triggered distributed learning rule that is based on the principle of diffusing low beliefs on each false hypothesis. Building on this principle, we design a trigger condition under which an agent broadcasts only those components of its belief vector that have adequate innovation, to only those neighbors that require such information. We prove that our rule guarantees convergence to the true state exponentially fast almost surely despite sparse communication, and that it has the potential to significantly reduce information flow from uninformative agents to informative agents. Next, to deal with finite-precision communication channels, we propose a distributed learning rule that leverages the idea of adaptive quantization. We show that by sequentially refining the range of the quantizers, every agent can learn the truth exponentially fast almost surely, while using just 1 bit to encode its belief on each hypothesis. For both our proposed algorithms, we rigorously characterize the trade-offs between communication-efficiency and the learning rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2004

Combining Particle Filters and Consistency-Based Approaches for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

Fault detection and isolation are critical tasks to ensure correct operation of systems. When we consider stochastic hybrid systems, diagnosis algorithms need to track both the discrete mode and the continuous state of the system in the presence of noise. Deterministic techniques like Livingstone cannot deal with the stochasticity in the system and models. Conversely Bayesian belief update techniques such as particle filters may require many computational resources to get a good approximation of the true belief state. In this paper we propose a fault detection and isolation architecture for stochastic hybrid systems that combines look-ahead Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters (RBPF) with the Livingstone 3 (L3) diagnosis engine. In this approach RBPF is used to track the nominal behavior, a novel n-step prediction scheme is used for fault detection and L3 is used to generate a set of candidates that are consistent with the discrepant observations which then continue to be tracked by the RBPF scheme.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trust-Informed Large Language Models via Word Embedding-Knowledge Graph Alignment

A major weakness of a Large Language Model (LLM) is its tendency to accept information at face value, often leading to injection of erroneous information and inducing a greater probability of hallucinating non-existent information. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) uses external knowledge sources to bolster LLMs through grounded truth, this work seeks to explore methods to engender a LLM with an intrinsic capability to evaluate an input’s believability without relying on external knowledge sources. We investigate unifying a LLM with a Knowledge Graph (KG) and using the KG to reinforce the LLM’s internal word embedding while also maintaining belief metrics along the edge’s in the KG.

Large Language Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis testing via AI: Generating physically interpretable models of scientific data with machine learning (Full Technical Report)

Deep learning has demonstrated an exceptional ability to solve complex tasks (an engineering success); however, it has done so at the expense of the ability to generate new knowledge (a scientific failure). We propose an alternative framework—entitled Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR)—in which artificial neural networks (NNs) rapidly generate hypotheses about physical relationships among inputs. This framework bypasses the need to interpret an NN altogether, while still leveraging the representational power of deep learning. The resulting models are tractable mathematical expressions, which are inherently and readily human interpretable and can provide insights into underlying physical phenomena. Further, we fold this methodology into the scientific process by allowing the scientist to directly integrate a priori knowledge and beliefs to accelerate learning. We demonstrate this methodology on symbolic regression—the problem of rediscovering underlying expressions describing a dataset—and achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of symbolic regression problems. Further, we generalize our DSR framework to apply to the more general class of symbolic optimization problems, in which one seeks to optimize a sequence of symbols or “tokens” under a black-box reward function. Examples of other symbolic optimization problems include neural architecture search and computational antibody design. Our generalized tool, Deep Symbolic Optimization (DSO), has been demonstrated on the task of learning symbolic control policies for reinforcement learning environments, and has been adopted as an enabling capability for computational antibody design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Observations on the State of NASA's GN&C Engineering Discipline: Results of an Independent Non-Advocate Study

The NASA Technical Fellows periodically conduct State-of-the-Discipline assessments. The GN&C Technical Fellow contracted Harlan Brown & Company in 2007 and 2009 to conduct independent, third party studies to gain unbiased insight and understanding into the attitudes and beliefs of NASA's GN&C Community of Practice (CoP). The paper first outlines the background, objectives and methodology of the studies. The paper then summarizes key study results of the 2007 baseline study, as well as the 2009 update. The update was then used to track and monitor perceptions, identify performance trends, identify areas where further improvement needs to be made in NASA's GN&C discipline. It also generated feedback on the recently developed GN&C CoP online knowledge capture and learning site.

Pawlikowski, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Constructing LDPC Codes from Loop-Free Encoding Modules

A method of constructing certain low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes by use of relatively simple loop-free coding modules has been developed. The subclasses of LDPC codes to which the method applies includes accumulate-repeat-accumulate (ARA) codes, accumulate-repeat-check-accumulate codes, and the codes described in Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate-Accumulate Codes (NPO-41305), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 9 (September 2007), page 90. All of the affected codes can be characterized as serial/parallel (hybrid) concatenations of such relatively simple modules as accumulators, repetition codes, differentiators, and punctured single-parity check codes. These are error-correcting codes suitable for use in a variety of wireless data-communication systems that include noisy channels. These codes can also be characterized as hybrid turbolike codes that have projected graph or protograph representations (for example see figure); these characteristics make it possible to design high-speed iterative decoders that utilize belief-propagation algorithms. The present method comprises two related submethods for constructing LDPC codes from simple loop-free modules with circulant permutations. The first submethod is an iterative encoding method based on the erasure-decoding algorithm. The computations required by this method are well organized because they involve a parity-check matrix having a block-circulant structure. The second submethod involves the use of block-circulant generator matrices. The encoders of this method are very similar to those of recursive convolutional codes. Some encoders according to this second submethod have been implemented in a small field-programmable gate array that operates at a speed of 100 megasymbols per second. By use of density evolution (a computational- simulation technique for analyzing performances of LDPC codes), it has been shown through some examples that as the block size goes to infinity, low iterative decoding thresholds close to channel capacity limits can be achieved for the codes of the type in question having low maximum variable node degrees. The decoding thresholds in these examples are lower than those of the best-known unstructured irregular LDPC codes constrained to have the same maximum node degrees. Furthermore, the present method enables the construction of codes of any desired rate with thresholds that stay uniformly close to their respective channel capacity thresholds.

Divsalar, Dariush↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design Strategies of Spinel Oxide Frameworks Enabling Reversible Mg-Ion Intercalation

In this study, reversible Mg 2+ intercalation in metal oxides frameworks is a key enabler for an operational Mg ion battery with high energy density needed for the next generation of energy storage technologies. While functional Mg-ion batteries have been achieved in structures with soft anions (e.g., S 2- and Se 2- ), they do not meet energy density requirements to compete with the current rechargeable lithium-ion batteries due to their low insertion potentials, emphasizing the necessity of finding an oxide-based cathode that operates at high potentials. A leading hypothesis to explain the limited availability of oxide Mg-ion cathodes is the belief that Mg 2+ has sluggish diffusion kinetics in oxides due to strong electrostatic interactions between the Mg 2+ ions and oxide anions in the lattice. From this assessment, it can be hypothesized that such rate limiting kinetic shortcomings can be mitigated by tailoring an oxide framework through creating less stable Mg 2+ - O 2- coordination.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗