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Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Recovery Act:Rural Cooperative Geothermal development Electric & Agriculture

Surprise Valley Electric, a small rural electric cooperative serving northeast California and southern Oregon, developed a 3mw binary geothermal electric generating plant on a cooperative member's ranch. The geothermal resource had been discovered in 1980 when the ranch was developing supplemental irrigation water wells. The 240°F resource was used for irrigation until developed through this project for generation of electricity. A portion of the spent geothermal fluid is now used for irrigation in season and is available for other purposes, such as greenhouse agriculture, aquaculture and direct heating of community buildings. Surprise Valley Electric describes many of the challenges a small rural electric cooperative encountered and managed to develop a geothermal generating plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GEOTHERMAL / SOLAR HYBRID DESIGNS: USE OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FOR CSP FEEDWATER HEATING

This paper examines a hybrid geothermal / solar thermal plant design that uses geothermal energy to provide feedwater heating in a conventional steam-Rankine power cycle deployed by a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant. The geothermal energy represents slightly over 10% of the total thermal input to the hybrid plant. The geothermal energy allows power output from the hybrid plant to increase by about 8% relative to a stand-alone CSP plant with the same solar-thermal input. Geothermal energy is converted to electricity at an efficiency of 1.7 to 2.5 times greater than would occur in a stand-alone, binary-cycle geothermal plant using the same geothermal resource. While the design exhibits a clear advantage during hybrid plant operation, the annual advantage of the hybrid versus two stand-alone power plants depends on the total annual operating hours of the hybrid plant. The annual results in this draft paper are preliminary, and further results are expected prior to submission of a final paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design of synthetic bacterial communities for predictable plant phenotypes

Specific members of complex microbiota can influence host phenotypes, depending on both the abiotic environment and the presence of other microorganisms. Therefore, it is challenging to define bacterial combinations that have predictable host phenotypic outputs. We demonstrate that plant–bacterium binary-association assays inform the design of small synthetic communities with predictable phenotypes in the host. Specifically, we constructed synthetic communities that modified phosphate accumulation in the shoot and induced phosphate starvation–responsive genes in a predictable fashion. We found that bacterial colonization of the plant is not a predictor of the plant phenotypes we analyzed. In conclusion, we demonstrated that characterizing a subset of all possible bacterial synthetic communities is sufficient to predict the outcome of untested bacterial consortia. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to infer causal relationships between microbiota membership and host phenotypes and to use these inferences to rationally design novel communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Geothermal probabilistic cost study

A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model was used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents was analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance were examined.

Orren, L. H.↗

Systematic Review of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Geothermal Electricity

The primary goal of this work was to assess the magnitude and variability of published life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for three types of geothermal electricity generation technologies: enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) binary, hydrothermal (HT) flash, and HT binary. These technologies were chosen to align the results of this report with technologies modeled in National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDs) model. Although we did gather and screen life cycle assessment (LCA) literature on hybrid systems, dry steam, and two geothermal heating technologies, we did not analyze published GHG emission estimates for these technologies. In our systematic literature review of the LCA literature, we screened studies in two stages based on a variety of criteria adapted from NREL's Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Harmonization study (Heath and Mann 2012). Of the more than 180 geothermal studies identified, only 29 successfully passed both screening stages and only 26 of these included estimates of life cycle GHG emissions. We found that the median estimate of life cycle GHG emissions (in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour generated [g CO2eq/kWh]) reported by these studies are 32.0, 47.0, and 11.3 for EGS binary, HT flash, and HT binary, respectively (Figure ES-1). We also found that the total life cycle GHG emissions are dominated by different stages of the life cycle for different technologies. For example, the GHG emissions from HT flash plants are dominated by the operations phase owing to the flash cycle being open loop whereby carbon dioxide entrained in the geothermal fluids is released to the atmosphere. This is in contrast to binary plants (using either EGS or HT resources), whose GHG emissions predominantly originate in the construction phase, owing to its closed-loop process design. Finally, by comparing this review's literature-derived range of HT flash GHG emissions to data from currently operating geothermal plants, we found that emissions from operational plants exhibit more variability and the median of emissions from operational plants is twice the median of operational emissions reported by LCAs. Further investigation is warranted to better understand the cause of differences between published LCAs and estimates from operational plants and to develop LCA analytical approaches that can yield estimates closer to actual emissions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE-GTO Low Temperature Project Case Study

The US Department of Energy (DOE), Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) has funded low temperature projects to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of power generation from geothermal resources at temperatures of 150°C and lower. To date three of the funded projects have completed their two year operation phase during which they supplied operating data to the GTO. This paper discusses the operation of two of these plants while they were providing data, including a review of facility performance, as well as an initial economic assessment of each.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Computerized procedure systems: procedure edition and maintenance challenges - 232

Very few nuclear power plants are using computerized procedures to guide the control room operation. A CPS implementation consists of two processes: digitalization and computerization. The former deals with the transformation of paper-based procedure into a digital data; the latter is referred to as the addition to that data of extra information that is meaningful for decision-making. This information may include real-time data (plant parameter values and binary process values to indicate equipment states), provide access to trends and historical data, etc. In order to be efficient and to optimize the digitalization and computerization processes, these set of aids should be implemented at the same time as operating procedures are digitalized There are references of plants having successfully implemented Computerized Procedures Systems (CPS) for emergency procedures, but when questioned about normal or abnormal operating procedures, operators and plant management seem reluctant to take that step. Given that a CPS is meant, by design concept, to increase operation crew efficiency by facilitating the procedures execution and reducing human error, why are we reluctant to enjoy CPS benefits in the most common plant status (i.e. normal operation)? Although there are many answers to this question, one is shared by most of the users: CPSs are not designed for editing and maintaining procedures easily and reliably. Normal operating procedures, in opposition to the emergency procedures, are often reviewed. Nowadays, these edition activities are performed easily with a word processor software and using paper, but what is required when dealing with a CPS? (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Experimental and Computational Investigation of High Entropy Alloys for Elevated-Temperature Applications

To create and design novel structural materials with enhanced creep-resistance, fundamental studies have been conducted on high-entropy alloys (HEAs), using (1) thermodynamic calculations, (2) mechanical tests, (3) neutron diffraction, (4) characterization techniques, and (5) crystal-plasticity finite-element modeling (CPFEM), to explore future candidates for next-generation power plants. All the constituent binary and ternary systems of the Al-Cr-Cu-Fe-Mn-Ni and Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems were thermodynamically modeled within the whole composition range. Comparisons between the calculated phase diagrams and literature data are in good agreement. Seven types of HEAs were fabricated from Al-Cr-Cu-Fe-Mn-Ni and Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems. The Al x CrCuFeMnNi HEAs have disordered [face-centered cubic (FCC) + body-centered cubic (BCC)] crystal structures, not FCC or BCC single structure. Excessive alloying of the Al element results in the change of both microstructural and mechanical properties in Al x CoCrFeNi HEAs. There are mainly three structural features in Al x CoCrFeNi: (1) the morphology, (2) the volume fractions of the constitute phases, and (3) existing temperatures of all six phases. After homogenization, the Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi material is a pure FCC solid solution. After aging at 700 °C for 500 hours, the optimal microstructure combinations, the FCC matrix, needle-like B2 phase within grains, and granular σ phase along grain boundary, is achieved for Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi. The cold-rolling process is utilized to reduce the grain size of Al 0.1 CoCrFeNi and Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi. The chemical elemental partitioning of FCC, BCC, B2, and σphases at different temperatures, before and after mechanical tests, in Al-Cr-Cu-Fe-Mn-Ni and Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems are quantitatively characterized by both synchrotron X-ray diffraction, neutron diffraction with levitation, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), advanced atom probe tomography (APT), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). In-situ neutron diffraction experiments were conducted to study the strengthening effect of B2 phase on tensile properties of Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi HEAs directly. The results shows the creep behavior of Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi is superior to conventional alloys, and the heat treatment introduces secondary B2 phase into the FCC matrix, which increase the yielding strength, decrease the ductility, diminish the serrated flow during compression tests at high temperatures. In summary, the outcomes of the development of the HEAs with creep resistance include: (1) Suitable candidates, for the application to boilers and steam and gas turbines at temperatures above 760 °C and a stress of 35 MPa. (2) Fundamental understanding on the precipitate stability and deformation mechanisms of both single-phase and precipitate-strengthened alloys at room and elevated temperatures, and (3) The demonstration of an integrated approach, coupling modeling [thermodynamic calculations and crystal-plasticity finite-element modeling (CPFEM)] and focused experiments, to identify HEAs that outperform conventional alloys for high-temperature applications, which will be applicable for the discovery and development of other high-temperature materials in the power-generating industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy 101 Geothermal [Slides]

The Energy 101: Geothermal presentation, developed for the Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP), provides an overview of geothermal energy. It covers fundamental concepts, technologies, considerations, case studies, and additional resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovery and analysis of a blind geothermal system in southeastern Gabbs Valley, Western Nevada

This study assessed the potential for high-temperature (≥130°C) blind geothermal systems in southeastern Gabbs Valley by employing a geothermal play fairway analysis approach involving integration of geologic, geophysical, and geochemical datasets. Gabbs Valley is a complex, tectonically active basin within the Great Basin on the boundary between the transtensional central Walker Lane domain and extensional Basin and Range province. The termination of the Petrified Springs fault, a major dextral fault of the central Walker Lane, in an array of normal faults indicates that southeastern Gabbs Valley occupies a displacement transfer zone, which is a favorable structural setting for geothermal activity. The displacement transfer zone is a structurally complicated area with many faults of varying geometries, kinematics, and ages. A substantial northwest-trending gravity high within the south-central part of southeastern Gabbs Valley is produced from offsets along concealed northwest-striking dextral-normal faults that intersect strands of north-northeast-to east-northeast-striking normal faults. This area of tightly spaced faults and fault intersections is a particularly favorable structural setting within the broader-scale displacement transfer zone. Multiple lines of direct and indirect evidence suggest the presence of a relatively high-temperature (≥130°C) blind geothermal system in this area, including collocated intersecting gravity gradients, magnetic-low, low-resistivity, and 2-m temperature anomaly. Potentially related, water samples from agricultural wells ~7 km northwest of the 2-m anomaly yield geothermometers indicating subsurface fluid temperatures of 130-140°C. Six temperature-gradient holes were drilled to target the extent of the shallow-temperature and geophysical anomalies to define the geothermal system in southeastern Gabbs Valley. Two wells contained high temperatures exceeding boiling with bottom-hole temperatures ii of 114.5°C and 124.9°C, respectively, and the remaining wells displayed elevated to background temperatures ranging from 79.2°C to 28.7°C. The observed temperature gradients for the two hottest drill holes necessitate drill-hole intercepts of convecting hydrothermal fluids. The 2-m survey is spatially and thermally consistent with the temperature-gradient holes and constrains the core of upflow at a shallow depth interval (<250m) to an area <0.5-1 km west-southwest of the hottest drill hole. The zone of inferred upwelling occupies the area corresponding to the center of the magnetic-low. This project has several significant implications. The newly discovered blind geothermal system in southeastern Gabbs Valley may be capable of supporting a binary-type geothermal power plant. This detailed study provides an initial validation of the play fairway approach to geothermal exploration. It also demonstrates both the broad applicability of the play fairway exploration strategy and the large untapped potential for commercial-grade blind geothermal systems in many of the basins in the Great Basin region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Auxin-Producing Bacteria from Duckweeds Have Different Colonization Patterns and Effects on Plant Morphology

The role of auxin in plant–microbe interaction has primarily been studied using indole-3-acetic acid (IAA)-producing pathogenic or plant-growth-promoting bacteria. However, the IAA biosynthesis pathway in bacteria involves indole-related compounds (IRCs) and intermediates with less known functions. Here, we seek to understand changes in plant response to multiple plant-associated bacteria taxa and strains that differ in their ability to produce IRCs. We had previously studied 47 bacterial strains isolated from several duckweed species and determined that 79% of these strains produced IRCs in culture, such as IAA, indole lactic acid (ILA), and indole. Using Arabidopsis thaliana as our model plant with excellent genetic tools, we performed binary association assays on a subset of these strains to evaluate morphological responses in the plant host and the mode of bacterial colonization. Of the 21 tested strains, only four high-quantity IAA-producing Microbacterium strains caused an auxin root phenotype. Compared to the commonly used colorimetric Salkowski assay, auxin concentration determined by LC–MS was a superior indicator of a bacteria’s ability to cause an auxin root phenotype. Studies with the auxin response mutant axr1-3 provided further genetic support for the role of auxin signaling in mediating the root morphology response to IAA-producing bacteria strains. Interestingly, our microscopy results also revealed new evidence for the role of the conserved AXR1 gene in endophytic colonization of IAA-producing Azospirillum baldaniorum Sp245 via the guard cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Gene Stacking Method in Plant Transformation Utilizing Split Selectable Markers

Gene stacking, the process of introducing multiple genes into a single plant to enhance desired traits, is essential for plant genetic improvement through both conventional breeding and genetic transformation. In general, transformation-based gene stacking can be achieved through either co-transformation to simultaneously introduce multiple genes or sequential multi-round transformation. While co-transformation is generally faster and more efficient than sequential multi-round transformation, it often requires two selectable marker genes, which confer resistance to antibiotics, for selecting transgenic events. However, in most cases, there is only one best selectable marker gene for a specific plant species or genotype. Also, it is harder to optimize the concentrations of two antibiotics for co-transformation than using one antibiotic for selecting transgenic events. To overcome this challenge, we recently developed an innovative split selectable marker system for plant co-transformation, allowing the use of one selectable marker gene to select transgenic events. This method involves constructing two binary vectors, each carrying a subset of genes of interest and a partial fragment of the selectable marker gene, which is connected to a partial intein fragment. Following Agrobacterium -mediated co-transformation, plants harboring both binary vectors are selected using a single antibiotic, such as kanamycin. This split-marker system can be used to co-transform multiple genes into both herbaceous and woody plants, accelerating genetic improvement of polygenic traits or integrative improvement of multiple traits to simultaneously increase crop yield and quality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An optimization model for collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal of infectious medical waste: Application to a Greek region

Highlights: • We developed an optimization model to minimize cost of infectious waste management. •Two different software were used for model solution. • Model optimizes locations and capacities of treatment plants and transfer stations. • The higher percentage of total cost was due to construction of the treatment plant. • Sensitivity analysis with respect to fuel cost and waste production was conducted. - Abstract: The objective of this work was to develop an optimization model to minimize the cost of a collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal system for infectious medical waste (IMW). The model calculates the optimum locations of the treatment facilities and transfer stations, their design capacities (t/d), the number and capacities of all waste collection, transport and transfer vehicles and their optimum transport path and the minimum IMW management system cost. Waste production nodes (hospitals, healthcare centers, peripheral health offices, private clinics and physicians in private practice) and their IMW production rates were specified and used as model inputs. The candidate locations of the treatment facilities, transfer stations and sanitary landfills were designated, using a GIS-based methodology. Specifically, Mapinfo software with exclusion criteria for non-appropriate areas was used for siting candidate locations for the construction of the treatment plant and calculating the distance and travel time of all possible vehicle routes. The objective function was a non-linear equation, which minimized the total collection, transport, treatment and disposal cost. Total cost comprised capital and operation costs for: (1) treatment plant, (2) waste transfer stations, (3) waste transport and transfer vehicles and (4) waste collection bins and hospital boxes. Binary variables were used to decide whether a treatment plant and/or a transfer station should be constructed and whether a collection route between two or more nodes should be followed. Microsoft excel software was used as installation platform of the optimization model. For the execution of the optimization routine, two completely different software were used and the results were compared, thus, resulting in higher reliability and validity of the results. The first software was Evolver, which is based on the use of genetic algorithms. The second one was Crystal Ball, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model was applied to the Region of East Macedonia – Thrace in Greece. The optimum solution resulted in one treatment plant located in the sanitary landfill area of Chrysoupolis, required no transfer stations and had a total management cost of 38,800 €/month or 809 €/t. If a treatment plant is sited in the most eastern part of the Region, i.e., the industrial area of Alexandroupolis, the optimum solution would result in a transfer station of 23 m{sup 3}, located near Kavala General Hospital, and a total cost of 39,800 €/month or 831 €/t. A sensitivity analysis was conducted and two alternative scenarios were optimized. In the first scenario, a 15% rise in fuel cost and in the second scenario a 25% rise in IMW production were considered. At the end, a cost calculation in €/t/km for every type of vehicle used for haul and transfer was conducted. Also, the cost of the whole system was itemized and calculated in €/t/km and €/t. The results showed that the higher percentage of the total cost was due to the construction of the treatment plant.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗