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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle assessment of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage toward net-zero emissions

Co-firing biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) offers a technological option to decarbonize coal-fired power plants toward net-zero emissions. This study estimates the life cycle emissions of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with CCS and quantifies its variability and uncertainty. Deployment of co-firing BECCS at coal-fired power plants can significantly reduce the life cycle emissions toward the net-zero target but lower the power plant performance, which vary with numerous factors, including coal type, biomass type, co-firing level, and CO 2 capture rate. The breakeven co-firing levels required for biomass at coal-fired power plants with 90 % CO 2 capture to reach net-zero emissions fall with a range roughly from 15 % to 25 % on an energy basis, depending on coal and biomass types. Increasing the CO 2 capture rate from 90 % to 95 % can lower the breakeven co-firing levels by about 5 to 8 percentage points for the biomass resources of interest, which can lower reliance on biomass resources and facilitate large-scale deployment of co-firing BECCS in fossil-rich regions but with limited biomass resources. Furthermore, findings improve the understanding of the techno-environmental performance of co-firing BECCS and inform strategic planning decisions on net-zero emissions in the coal-fired power sector.

Breakeven co-firing level↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of nitrogen management in cultivation on the stability and microbial community of post-harvest Monoraphidium sp. algae biomass

Seasonal variation in algae biomass productivity is a significant obstacle to the economical production of fuels and chemicals from algae biomass. Long-term storage is necessary to guarantee a constant supply to a conversion facility and harvested microalgae biomass (20% solids) is subject to degradation immediately upon harvesting as a result of aerobic instability. Ensiling has been successfully used to preserve microalgal biomass, but biomass attributes that contribute to successful storage are poorly understood. Storage studies of Monoraphidium sp. biomass indicate a strong correlation between nitrogen management in algae cultivation and stability of post-harvest algae biomass in 30 days of anaerobic storage. Algae cultivated with periodic nitrogen addition stored poorly (> 20% loss, dry basis), while algae biomass from cultures that were allowed to continue growing after nitrogen depletion was more stable in storage (8% loss, dry basis). A follow-up study aimed at exploring the relationship between nitrogen management in cultivation and stability of post-harvest algae biomass stored Monoraphidium biomass cultivated in nitrogen deplete and nitrogen replete conditions, as well as with blends of each in varying ratios. Monoraphidium biomass from nitrogen replete cultivations experienced the largest degradation (24%, dry basis), while nitrogen deplete biomass experienced the least (10%, dry basis). Dry matter loss experienced during storage of blends was positively correlated with the amount of nitrogen replete biomass that a blend contained. Further, the composition of the post-storage algae microbial community was also strongly affected by cultivation conditions, with Clostridia species being more prevalent in stored biomass obtained from nitrogen replete cultivations. Nitrogen management has long been known to influence algae biomass productivity and biochemical composition; here, we demonstrate that it also strongly influences the stability of post-harvest algae biomass in anaerobic storage.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical and Structural Changes in Corn Stover After Ensiling: Influence on Bioconversion

Production of biofuels, bioproducts, and bioenergy requires a well-characterized, stable, and reasonably uniform biomass supply and well-established supply chains for shipping biomass from farm fields to biorefineries, while achieving year-round production targets. Preserving and stabilizing biomass feedstock during storage is a necessity for cost-effective and sustainable biofuel production. Ensiling is a common storage method used to preserve and even improve forage quality; however, the impact of ensiling on biomass physical and chemical properties that influence bioconversion processes has been variable. Our objective in this work was to determine the effects of ensiling on lignocellulosic feedstock physicochemical properties and how that influences bioconversion requirements. We observed statistically significant decreases (p < 0.05) in the content of two major structural carbohydrates (glucan and xylan) of 5 and 8%, respectively, between the ensiled and non-ensiled materials. We were unable to detect differences in sugar yields from structural carbohydrates after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis of the ensiled materials compared to non-ensiled controls. Based on this work, we conclude that ensiling the corn stover did not change the bioconversion requirements compared to the control samples and incurred losses of structural carbohydrates. At the light microscopy level, ensiled corn stover exhibited little structural change or relocation of cell wall components as detected by immunocytochemistry. However, more subtle structural changes were revealed by electron microscopy, as ensiled cell walls exhibit ultrastructural characteristics such as wall delimitation intermediate between non-ensiled and dilute-acid-pretreated cell walls. These findings suggest that alternative methods of conversion, such as deacetylation and mechanical refining, could take advantage of lamellar defects and may be more effective than dilute acid or hot water pretreatment for biomass conversion of ensiled materials.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preservation of Microalgae, Lignocellulosic Biomass Blends by Ensiling to Enable Consistent Year-Round Feedstock Supply for Thermochemical Conversion to Biofuels

Seasonal variation in microalgae productivity is a significant barrier to economical production of algae biofuels and chemicals. Summer production can be 3–5 times higher than in the winter resulting in uneven feedstock supplies at algae biorefineries. A portion of the summer production must be preserved for conversion in the winter in order to maintain a biorefinery running at capacity. Ensiling, a preservation process that utilizes lactic acid fermentation to limit microbial degradation, has been demonstrated to successfully stabilize algae biomass (20% solids) and algae-lignocellulosic blends (40% algae-60% lignocellulosic biomass, dry basis) for over 6 months, resulting in fuel production cost savings with fewer emissions. Preservation of algae as blends could be beneficial to biorefineries that utilize thermochemical approaches to fuel production as co-processing of algae and lignocellulosic biomass has been observed to enhance biocrude yield and improve oil quality. This study conducts a resource assessment of biomass residues in the southern United States to identify materials available during peak algae productivity and in sufficient quantity to meet the algae storage needs of an algae biofuel industry. Eight feedstocks met the quantity threshold but only three, distillers grains, haylage, and yard waste, were also available in season. Storage experiments utilizing both freshwater and marine strains of microalgae – Scenedesmus acutus, Chlorella vulgaris, Chlorella zofingiensis, Nannochloropsis gaditana, and Porphyridium purpureum – and yard waste were conducted for 30 days. Storage losses were less than 10% in all but one case, and the pH of all but one blend was reduced to less than 4.7, indicating that yard waste is a suitable feedstock for blending with algae prior to storage. To better understand whether the benefits to conversion realized by processing blends might be affected by storage, elemental analysis and bomb calorimetry of pre- and post-storage algae-yard waste blends were conducted to characterize changes occurring during storage. Storing algae biomass as blends with lignocellulosic biomass could be an effective method of mitigating seasonal variability in algae biomass production while retaining the synergistic effect of co-processing algae blends in thermochemical conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of Structural Alloys in Bio-oil Production, Upgrading, and Storage Systems

Selection of corrosion-resistant, cost-effective structural materials for the process and containment vessels required for the production, upgrading, and storage of biomass-derived oils has been the subject of study in our laboratory for many years. The wide variety of biomass resources and the many liquefaction techniques and processing conditions result in products with a broad range of properties and compositions. Here, this paper will address the materials issues in three distinct areas. In production, materials are exposed to temperatures that range from 350 to 550 °C depending upon the process. Generally, austenitic stainless steels have performed reasonably well, although thicker oxide scales and intergranular attack have sometimes been observed. For storage and transport of the bio-oil products, temperatures experienced by the containment materials are not expected to exceed 50 °C. Our studies have shown that most raw bio-oils contain significant concentrations of organic acids, and low-molecular-weight organic acids were quite corrosive to carbon and low alloy steels. For some applications, subsequent processing is required, which includes hydrotreating or co-processing with a petroleum-derived liquid. These processes utilize a catalyst that requires periodic retreatment with a sulfidizing gas, and the exposure to this gas at elevated temperatures can cause appreciable corrosion to the more common austenitic stainless steels. The materials considered most cost-effective and sufficiently corrosion-resistant for each of these environments were identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual Basis and Techno-Economic Modeling for Integrated Algal Biorefinery Conversion of Microalgae to Fuels and Products (2019 NREL TEA Update: Highlighting Paths to Future Cost Goals via a New Pathway for Combined Algal Processing)

The report documents the conceptual basis for a new potential Combined Algal Processing design strategy which may allow more flexibility in accommodating different algal biomass feedstock compositions, by enabling upgrading of both protein and carbohydrates in a single step, without a strict requirement for either component to be in soluble or monomeric form, while maintaining effective wet lipid extraction techniques to enable high lipid recoveries. In light of previously-established constraints around algal biomass costs (which are significantly higher than lignocellulosic terrestrial biomass), the present CAP processing strategy reflects an integrated biorefinery concept producing both fuels and value-added chemical coproducts as a means to improve profitability and generate coproduct revenues to help drive down the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) towards economically viable levels. Namely, this report highlights an integrated CAP biorefinery process and associated technical targets that would be required to achieve U.S. Department of Energy target MFSP goals of $2.5/gallon gasoline equivalent by 2030. This is accomplished by a process involving low-cost seasonal storage of algal biomass during high-growth seasons, rapid flash hydrolysis pretreatment of the biomass, solvent extraction of pretreated biomass, cleanup and fractionation of lipids into triglyceride and free fatty acid fractions, and a series of thermochemical conversion steps to upgrade carbohydrates and protein to hydrocarbon fuels. These steps include mild oxidative treatment (MOT), a process originally investigated at NREL for upgrading lignin, followed by catalytic ketonization and hydrotreating of MOT products to fuels. Isolated triglycerides are sent to a coproduct train, with the base case focused on upgrading to polyurethane foams as a high-value, high-market-volume coproduct.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass to bio-energy supply chain: Economic viability, case studies, challenges and policy implications in India

Biomass supply chain (BSC) management is an integral part of renewable energy projects, which include biomass-harvesting, collection, storage, processing and transportation to the bio-energy plants. The sustainability concept identifies economy, environment, and society as the three principal pillars of bioenergy. With an effective BSC implemented, all three dimensions of sustainability can be attained. Although, there’s been extensive research on the environmental sustainability of BSC, the economic aspects are under-represented in existing literature. So, an elaborate analysis on the economic viability of BSCs developed worldwide and those in India is critical, and needs to be studied. This review conducts a detailed accounting of the economic aspects of a BSC which includes the existing challenges in designing an environmental-cum-economically efficient BSC and strategies to address the issues. The Indian context has been studied on the BSC models, highlighting their shortcomings, while encapsulating the essential insights from global BSC models for a cost-effective BSC-to-bioenergy in India. Here, this review also emphasizes the policies supporting the BSC in India and forecasts the future biomass demand and supply. This review will provide stakeholders with critical insights on BSC and related challenges and assist them to investigate and devise strategies for successful implementation of BSCs in India.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of storage and blending of algae and forest product residue on fuel blendstock production

Seasonal impacts on the production of algae biomass require blending with other feedstocks such as wood to maintain consistent annual conversion capacity. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed a long-term storage strategy for algae biomass using ensiling, or anaerobic wet storage, that was tested for blends of algae and wood to stabilize the feedstock supply for processing to fuels. Additionally, blending biomass (algae and wood) leverages existing biomass storage approaches commonly used by the feed and forage industry. Earlier research also has demonstrated positive results that indicate ensiling is more effective and economical in normalizing biomass feedstock supply prior to conversions such as HTL (hydrothermal liquefaction) than preserving biomass by drying. By assessing impacts beginning with upstream logistic operations and proceeding through each conversion step, this work focuses on conversion of ensiled and blended biomass to fungible liquid transportation fuel blendstocks. This is accomplished by conversion of the blended biomass (62% Chlorella sp. blended with 38% loblolly pine forest product residues [FPR]) to bio-crude through HTL and subsequent upgrading through HT (hydrotreating) with a commercial refinery catalyst analogous to a refinery process to produce hydrocarbon fuel. In this work, results indicate that carbon retention and quality are preserved in both the bio-crude and upgraded fuel from the ensiled blend, indicating the potential of this approach for managing seasonal variations in algae biomass productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Community-Scale Solar Deployment in the Northwest Arctic

NANA Regional Corporation (NRC, or NANA) was formed as an Alaska Native Corporation (ANC) pursuant to the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971. Our lands cover 39,000 square miles of the Northwest Arctic region of Alaska. We partner closely with the Northwest Arctic Borough (NAB) and our 11 remote communities on numerous projects and activities, especially around clean energy initiatives that improve quality of life and help to reduce extremely high energy costs experienced by the communities in our region. Collectively, the regional partnership has developed numerous successful solar, wind, biomass, and energy storage, distribution upgrade, and efficiency projects. To further progress, we created the Northwest Arctic Energy Steering Committee to share and replicate these benefits across the region. NANA’s mission is to provide economic opportunities for our more than 13,500 Iñupiat shareholders and to protect and enhance NANA lands.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed clean energy opportunities for US oil refinery operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce costs and emissions while improving resilience. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy resources that could be integrated to support oil and gas companies’ economic, environmental, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery energy storage, landfill gas, biomass, municipal solid waste-to-energy, solar steam for process heat, combined heat and power, and electrolyzers for hydrogen production at two hypothetical refineries, one located in Louisiana and the other in southern California. These technologies could reduce the sites’ consumption of grid electricity and/or natural gas and thus can help reduce emissions. This study employs the ReOPT tool and System Advisor Model to evaluate the techno-economic potential for clean energy technologies to support refineries in achieving energy goals, including energy cost savings, resiliency, and emissions reductions. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via several distributed clean energy technologies are competitive with other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, direct carbon capture and sequestration, and markets under certain conditions. There are also cost beneficial opportunities for the use of renewable energy for refining, especially for resilience, depending on local conditions such as resources and utility costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO 2 . This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10,000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO 2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology develo pers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does pelleting alter the enzymatic digestibility of corn stover?

Pelleting of lignocellulosic biomass facilitates its transportation, storage and handling and offers opportunities to improve the enzymatic digestibility of pelleted biomass. Here, we report the impact of pelleting on the enzymatic digestibility of corn stover prior to pretreatment and associated substrate characteristics. Pelleting almost doubles the digestibility of unpretreated corn stover, from 8.2 to 15.5% glucan conversion, at 5% solid loading using 1 FPU Cellic CTec2 per g solids. Compositional analysis indicates that loose and pelleted corn stover have similar non-dissolvable compositions, although their extractives are slightly different. Enzymatic hydrolysis of washed corn stover after size reduction to normalize particle sizes and removal of extractives confirms that pelleting improves corn stover digestibility. Such differences may be explained by the decreased particle size, increased specific surface area, improved cellulose accessibility, and reduction of the polymer length of cellulose induced by pelleting. These findings help to design processing schemes for sustainable and efficient use of lignocellulose.

Chen, Xueli↗
DOE OSTI2025

Porous carbon from lignocellulosic biomass with emphasis on corn plant waste residue for energy storage

The rising global demand for sustainable energy storage materials has driven the search for environmentally friendly and cost-effective electrode options. Hydrothermal conversion of lignocellulosic biomass has gained attention due to its low energy requirements and operation at relatively low temperatures, presenting a green alternative to traditional thermochemical methods. The resulting solid product, hydrochar, has been used as an adsorbent and soil amendment; however, chemical/thermal treatment significantly enhances its physical properties. These structural modifications transform hydrochar into an effective porous carbon electrode, offering abundant sites for electrolyte ion transport, critical for high-performance devices like supercapacitors and batteries. This review first discusses various waste biomass and sustainable feedstocks available globally. It compares two primary thermochemical conversion techniques, pyrolysis and hydrothermal carbonization/liquefaction, and examines their respective solid products, biochar and hydrochar, analyzing differences in their physical and chemical characteristics. The focus is placed on hydrochar, summarizing activation methods to produce porous carbon suitable for energy storage applications. Additionally, this review will include a dedicated section on the application of porous carbon derived from corn plant waste residue, considering that corn is one of the most abundant crops grown worldwide, which makes it an important and promising source for sustainable porous carbon production. The role of machine learning models in optimizing hydrothermal processes to produce high-quality hydrochar is also discussed, emphasizing how data-driven approaches can streamline process development. Finally, the review identifies the current challenges and prospects for lignocellulosic biomass-derived porous carbon as a sustainable electrode material in next-generation energy storage technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO2. This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10 000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long-lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology developers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO 2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO 2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO 2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO 2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO 2 , adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO 2 removal to be $\$$60 – $\$$675 per metric tCO 2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO 2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO 2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO 2 removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by human activities each year, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections. In this study we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO 2 in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗