Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system
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Bistline, John E. T.↗
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A Fast Flexibility-Driven Generation Portfolio Planning Method for Sustainable Power Systems
We are witnessing an acceleration in the uptake of renewable energy in power systems. Because of the associated variability and uncertainty of renewables, power systems need to have an adequate supply of flexibility to allow for suitable management of short-term operations. So far most of the work in this area has neglected how flexibility needs associated with renewables are fulfilled as part of dispatchable generation capital investments decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to plan the dispatchable generation mix of a power system as needed to counteract variability and uncertainty associated with significant shares of variable renewable generation. The approach exploits the linear time-invariant feature of variable generation variability using historical phase planes of capacity (in MW) and ramp (in MW/min) to bridge the gap between long-term capacity planning and short-term intra-hour flexibility needs. This approach is much more computationally tractable than other proposals, while also being able to capture adequately short-term operational features like ramping and net load variability. Numerical tests are performed on realistic datasets to substantiate the effectiveness of the approach.
bulk power system planning↗
Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems
Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Preparing Distribution Utilities for the Future - Unlocking Demand-Side Management Potential: A Novel Analytical Framework
The balance of supply and demand in the power systems has traditionally been served solely through generation and network capacity planning and operations. However, with increased requirements for flexibility due to the uptake in variable renewable generation sources such as wind and solar there is a need to increased demand-side flexibility. In addition, there are increased communications and flexibility capabilities emerging on the demand-side from the adoption of advanced metering infrastructures and smart meter deployment and intelligent loads such as smart thermostats and schedulable white goods (e.g. dishwashers and washing machines). Unlocking demand-side flexibility can bring system benefits from peak load reduction bringing about generation capacity and network upgrade deferral, to reducing demand and more efficient utilization of generation and network capacity. Unlocking demand-side flexibility is an evolving process for utilities and solutions must be tailored to each specific customer group. Demand-side management (DSM) is a broad set of tools that can include demand response (both dispatchable and non-dispatchable), energy efficiency and distributed energy resources and demand-side technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd. (BRPL) and Deloitte, examined the potential of DSM in BRPL’s service territory, developing detailed information on customer classes and willingness to participate in DSM. The study developed modeling frameworks for load analysis and the analysis tools to assess the potential of time-of-use tariffs in motivating customers to reduce their peak period energy consumption. The study shows that BRPL customers, specifically their domestic customers, are willing to participate in DSM programs and that time-of-use pricing can help BRPL reduce their peak demand and help unlock demand-side flexibility.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India
Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.
Biofuel Producers↗
Improving Resiliency in Planning MW-Scale Medium and Heavy Duty EV Charging Stations Considering TSCOTS Optimization
Electrification of heavy-duty (HD) vehicles marks an important milestone and technical challenge in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the public grid. However, implementing EV charging at this scale will necessitate that traditional truck stops be updated with EV charging infrastructure that could represent 10's of MW in electricity consumption. Furthermore, as the transportation sector is represented as critical infrastructure, supporting resiliency considerations in EV charging infrastructure will be critical. This paper proposes an optimization-based approach for optimally designing a MW-scale microgrid charging network. This approach transforms conventional designed truck stops into a reliable HDEV charging stations capable of overnight slow charging and 30-minute to 1 hour fast charging. Using a mixed-integer linear program formulation blending capacity planning and reliability constraints, an optimal network configuration can be solved for a proposed EV charging station that includes photovoltaic and battery energy storage capabilities.
Ponce, Moises [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
Hybrid Simulation Framework
HYBRID is a modeling toolset to assess the economic viability of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems (N-R IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL’s RAVEN, its CashFlow plugin and the Modelica language. The toolset includes sample RAVEN workflows performing economic assessments. These workflows consist of: generation of stochastic time series and application of probabilistic analysis and optimization algorithms (RAVEN); a library of Modelica models representing the physical behavior of N-R IES; and the CashFlow plugin mapping physical performance to economic performance. The toolset allows assembling existing and new models such as nuclear reactors, renewable energy sources, energy storage, gas turbines, industrial processes, etc. into an N-R IES. The toolset workflows evaluate the dynamics of the N-R IES responding to stochastic conditions (electricity demand, price, etc.) and optimize the dispatch economics as well as N-R IES capacity planning.
Epiney, Aaron↗
Improving Mathematical Exposition of an Industrial-Scale Linear Program
Industrial-scale models require considerable setup time; hence, once built, they are used in myriad ways to consider closely related cases. In practice, the code for these models frequently evolves without appropriate notational choices, largely as a result of the lengthy development time of, and the number of individuals contributing to, their formulation. This leads to inefficiencies and obfuscates model structures that might be leveraged to expedite solutions. In this paper, we advocate for an emerging literature on model formulation “best practices” and present the reformulation of a widely used industrial-scale linear program. The efficient mathematical expression of this linear program, used to plan capacity expansion in the energy sector, allows for greater transparency of model structures and enhanced ability to identify computational performance improvements, as well as a lucid interpretation of its solutions. This type of formulation is employed in several mathematical programming courses at our university as an example of the advantages of best practices; the model more broadly is used widely to inform policy in the U.S. energy sector.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The Role of Concentrating Solar-Thermal Technologies in a Decarbonized U.S. Grid
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Solar Futures Study explores the roles solar energy technologies could play in the future U.S. energy markets under different scenarios. This report discusses the role of concentrating solar-thermal (CST) technologies in those future scenarios with an emphasis on concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP), which refers to converting thermal energy to electricity. The report begins with an overview of the CSP resource and market status. Next we discuss the results from the grid-scale capacity planning modeling under future scenarios considered in the Solar Futures Study, focusing on the results for CSP and presenting several sensitivity model results not discussed in the main report. We then discuss likely CST research and industry directions over the next decade. Finally we discuss three potential future markets for CST beyond electricity generation -- industrial process heat, solar fuels production, and electric thermal energy storage.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage
Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
GradientGraph
Under this SBIR Phase II, Reservoir Labs has developed G2 Analytics, a new technology that allows network operators to analyze bottleneck and flow performance with high precision. G2 delivers a new analytical approach and framework to resolve a variety of key problems found in modern communication networks, including: traffic engineering, routing, flow scheduling, network design, capacity planning, resiliency analysis, network slicing, or service level agreement (SLA) management, among others. G2 leverages the bottleneck structure of congestion-controlled communication networks, a recent mathematical discovery by the Reservoir team [RL19b, RL20a, RL20b, RL21a]. Bottleneck structures reveal how perturbations on flows and links propagate through the network, providing an analytical framework to measure (qualitatively and quantitatively) the ripple effects induced as they traverse the network. Leveraging the mathematics of bottleneck structures, Reservoir Labs is developing the G2 technology to provide network operators with a framework to design, optimize and troubleshoot network performance. This delivery includes the G2 software stack.
Yellamraju, Sruthi↗
Panel Session 36: Hot Topics in US Commercial Low-Level Waste Management
This panel focused on emerging issues in commercial LLW management in the US from the perspective of active members of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum, Inc. State, compact, federal and industry officials shared their views on a variety of timely and significant topics related to low-level radioactive waste management, disposal and related issues. Session no. 36 Co-Chairs, Patricia Holahan and Daniel Shrum, introduced the panelists and provided a summary of the purpose of the session. This Panel Session focused on several current and emerging issues impacting the commercial Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) management in the US from the perspective of active members of the Low-Level Waste Forum, Inc., States, Compact, as well as Federal and nuclear industries. The panelists provided different perspectives on number of key issues such as: LLW disposal facility status and updates (e.g.; in terms of disposal capacity, plans, and waste acceptance conditions). The panelists also addressed waste disposal rates and potential impacts of ongoing regulatory developments by the NRC and the concerned States. Other timely topics pertaining to the revision of 10CFR Part 61, the Greater-than-Class C (GTCC) and Transuranic (TRU) waste, and Very Low-Level Waste (VLLW) disposal issues were also addressed at this Session. Panelists with presentations: Hot Topics in US Commercial LLW Management (Joe Weismann); Texas LLRW Compact (David Carlson); Texas Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Compact Commission (John Salsman); Barnwell LLRW Disposal Facility (Benjamin Smith, Bill Carver)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector
To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Methods for Representing Flexible, Energy-Constrained Technologies in Utility Planning Tools
Capacity expansion models are widely used by power system researchers, planners, and policy analysts to evaluate alternative power system investment scenarios. With the increasing deployment of wind and solar in the US, there has been much focus on improving the representations of variable generation (VG) technologies within capacity expansion models. Models that capture the variable net-load profiles and larger reserve requirements associated with high penetration VG systems represent an improvement to classic capacity expansion models, but fall short of capturing the complexities associated with storage technologies, such as battery energy storage (BES) and concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP with TES). While difficult to model in a capacity expansion setting, these technologies are potentially competitive sources of flexibility with the intriguing characteristics of being able to absorb VG that would otherwise be curtailed and directly contribute to renewable energy goals, respectively. In this paper we present methods for accurately representing these technologies in a large-scale capacity expansion model with high electrical and geospatial resolution. VG modeling techniques, including novel methods for capturing curtailment due to unit commitment and other hourly dispatch phenomena, are also reviewed. Modeling for a region in the southwestern United States demonstrates the economic relevance of being able to explicitly trade off the costs and capabilities of energy-constrained technologies, especially BES, against other resources in the near-term, in time to make plans for the coming decade
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering Equitable PV Accommodation
Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) hosting capacity is widely used by distribution system operators to evaluate how much DPV the distribution networks can accommodate without violating operational constraints. If the proliferation of DPV deployment is appropriately managed, it offers an excellent opportunity to mitigate the energy inequity issue in electric grids. Hosting capacity improvement plans that neglect energy equity can exacerbate unequal DPV access. To consider energy equity in distribution network planning to enhance DPV accommodation, hosting capacity evaluations should be improved to consider equity constraints endogenously. This paper proposes a DPV hosting capacity evaluation method that considers equitable DPV access among sub-regions of a distribution feeder partitioned by socioeconomic indicators, such as income level. The results demonstrate that considering equity in DPV hosting capacity evaluations can provide a valuable reference in the equitable energy transition. This work provides guidance for future distribution network upgrade planning for equitable DPV deployment.
distributed PV↗
Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering Equitable PV Accommodation: Preprint
In distribution systems, distributed photovoltaic (DPV) hosting capacity is widely used by system operators to evaluate how much DPV the distribution networks can accommodate without violating operational constraints. With the proliferation of DPV deployment, if managed properly, it offers a great opportunity to mitigate the persistent energy inequity issue in electric grid. Otherwise, energy inequity can be exacerbated with unequal DPV access when hosting capacity improvement plans ignore the equity factor. To consider energy equity in distribution network planning for enhancing DPV accommodation, the hosting capacity evaluation should be improved to consider equity constraints endogenously. In this paper, a DPV hosting capacity evaluation method is proposed considering equitable DPV access among sub-regions of a distribution feeder partitioned by social-economic indicators such as the income levels. The results demonstrate that considering equity in DPV hosting capacity evaluation can provide valuable reference in the equitable energy transition. This work provides a valuable guidance for future distribution network upgrade planning for equitable DPV deployment.
distributed PV↗