Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “carbon inputs”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

On the Relationship Between Methane Production in Anaerobic Incubations of Peat Material and In Situ Methane Emissions

Anaerobic incubations of peat have been widely used to explore soil processes, but this in vitro technique raises many questions as to how well it reproduces in situ conditions. To investigate this, we conducted 60–100 days (+25 days pre‐incubation) anaerobic, temperature‐controlled incubation experiments across a temperature range of 1–26°C on samples from bog and fen habitats, at two different depths (9–19 and 25–35 cm). Here, we observed exponential increases in CO 2 and methane production with temperature in all conditions. We then compared field‐based measurements of methane emission with modeled expectations by extrapolating incubation‐determined methane production rates based on (a) soil temperature profiles, (b) the observed incubation temperature‐methane production relationship, and (c) seasonal thaw depth from each site. The resulting incubation‐extrapolated methane production agreed with measured emission rates within a factor of two at both sites and corresponded to 182 ± 54% and 59 ± 14% of the measured average yearly fluxes from the field for the bog and fen, respectively. The underestimation of fen methane fluxes may be due to the lack of living plant root‐derived dissolved organic carbon inputs in incubations, a key process in fens. Conversely, the overestimation in bogs could be attributed to methane oxidation in the field, which is absent in anaerobic incubation conditions. Nonetheless incubations predicted greenhouse gas emissions from a northern peatland within a factor of two.

Biological and medical sciences,Geosciences,Enviro↗
DOE OSTI2019

Where old meets new: An ecosystem study of methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland

Reflooding formerly drained peatlands has been proposed as a means to reduce losses of organic matter and sequester soil carbon for climate change mitigation, but a renewal of high methane emissions has been reported for these ecosystems, offsetting mitigation potential. Our ability to interpret observed methane fluxes in reflooded peatlands and make predictions about future flux trends is limited due to a lack of detailed studies of methanogenic processes. In this study we investigate methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland in the Sacramento Delta, California. Furthermore, we use the stable-and radio-carbon isotopic signatures of wetland sediment methane, ecosystem-scale eddy covariance flux observations, and laboratory incubation experiments, to identify which carbon sources and methanogenic production pathways fuel methanogenesis and how these processes are affected by vegetation and seasonality. We found that the old peat contribution to annual methane emissions was large (~30%) compared to intact wetlands, indicating a biogeochemical legacy of drainage. However, fresh carbon and the acetoclastic pathway still accounted for the majority of methanogenesis throughout the year. Although temperature sensitivities for bulk peat methanogenesis were similar between open-water (Q 10 = 2.1) and vegetated (Q 10 = 2.3) soils, methane production from both fresh and old carbon sources showed pronounced seasonality in vegetated zones. We conclude that high methane emissions in restored wetlands constitute a biogeochemical trade-off with contemporary carbon uptake, given that methane efflux is fueled primarily by fresh carbon inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intra‐ and inter‐annual variability of nitrification in the rhizosphere of field‐grown bioenergy sorghum

Abstract Biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) and plant–microbe competition for ammonium (NH 4 + ) by sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) have the potential to suppress nitrification, reducing nitrate (NO 3 − ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) production for more sustainable bioenergy feedstock production. However, it is unknown how variability in environmental factors, field management, and plant growth affect the suppression of nitrification. We conducted a field trial with four genotypes of energy sorghum and four fertilization rates in central Illinois, USA, and measured soil N pools, potential nitrification and denitrification rates, and microbial community composition in bulk and rhizosphere soils to assess nitrification suppression throughout the 2018 and 2019 growing seasons. Concentrations of NO 3 − and NH 4 + were very low in rhizosphere soil regardless of fertilization level, suggesting strong N demand by plants and microbes. Potential nitrification was lower in the rhizosphere soil than bulk soil, and this suppression was strongest mid‐season ~2 months after planting in both years (20% suppression in 2018 and 58% in 2019). Since precipitation was lower during the mid‐growing season of 2019 compared to 2018, we speculate that hydrophilic BNI root exudates accumulated in the rhizosphere and suppressed nitrification more than in 2018 when soil moisture was higher. Unfertilized plots had greater nitrification suppression than fertilized plots during the mid‐season in 2018, but otherwise nitrification suppression was insensitive to fertilizer treatment. Potential denitrification was stimulated in the rhizosphere compared to bulk soil in both study years, suggesting that heterotrophic activity was stimulated by plant carbon inputs, possibly further suppressing slower‐growing chemoautotrophic nitrifying microbes. Overall, we found inter‐ and intra‐annual variation in nitrification suppression in the rhizosphere of field‐grown biomass sorghum, suggesting that plant phenology and environmental conditions should be considered when devising strategies to improve the nitrogen sustainability of this annual bioenergy crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fine-root functional trait responses to experimental warming: a global meta-analysis

Whether and how warming alters functional traits of absorptive plant roots remains to be answered across the globe. Tackling this question is crucial to better understanding terrestrial responses to climate change as fine-root traits drive many ecosystem processes. In this work, we carried out a detailed synthesis of fine-root trait responses to experimental warming by performing a meta-analysis of 964 paired observations from 177 publications. Warming increased fine-root biomass, production, respiration and nitrogen concentration as well as decreased root carbon : nitrogen ratio and nonstructural carbohydrates. Warming effects on fine-root biomass decreased with greater warming magnitude, especially in short-term experiments. Furthermore, the positive effect of warming on fine-root biomass was strongest in deeper soil horizons and in colder and drier regions. Total fine-root length, morphology, mortality, life span and turnover were unresponsive to warming. Our results highlight the significant changes in fine-root traits in response to warming as well as the importance of warming magnitude and duration in understanding fine-root responses. These changes have strong implications for global soil carbon stocks in a warmer world associated with increased root-derived carbon inputs into deeper soil horizons and increases in fine-root respiration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divide and conquer: using RhizoVision Explorer to aggregate data from multiple root scans using image concatenation and statistical methods

Roots are important in agricultural and natural systems for determining plant productivity and soil carbon inputs. Sometimes, the amount of roots in a sample is too much to fit into a single scanned image, so the sample is divided among several scans, and there is no standard method to aggregate the data. Here, we describe and validate two methods for standardizing measurements across multiple scans: image concatenation and statistical aggregation. We developed a Python script that identifies which images belong to the same sample and returns a single, larger concatenated image. These concatenated images and the original images were processed with RhizoVision Explorer, a free and open-source software. An R script was developed, which identifies rows of data belonging to the same sample and applies correct statistical methods to return a single data row for each sample. These two methods were compared using example images from switchgrass, poplar, and various tree and ericaceous shrub species from a northern peatland and the Arctic. Most root measurements were nearly identical between the two methods except median diameter, which cannot be accurately computed by statistical aggregation. We believe the availability of these methods will be useful to the root biology community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microbiome Aggregated Traits and Assembly Are More Sensitive to Soil Management than Diversity

How soil is managed, particularly for agriculture, exerts stresses upon soil microbiomes, resulting in altered community structures and functional states. Understanding how soil microbiomes respond to combined stresses is important for predicting system performance under different land use scenarios, aids in identification of the most environmentally benign managements, and provides insight into how system function can be recovered in degraded soils. We use a long-established field experiment to study the effects of combined chronic (press) disturbance of the magnitude of organic carbon inputs with acute (pulse) effects of physical disturbance by tillage and chemical disturbance due to inorganic fertilization and pesticide application. We show that because of the variety of ways it can be assessed, biodiversity—here based on microbial small subunit rRNA gene phylotypes—does not provide a consistent view of community change. In contrast, aggregated traits associated with soil microbiomes indicate general loss of function, measured as a reduction of average genome lengths, associated with chronic reduction of organic inputs in arable or bare fallow soils and altered growth strategies associated with rRNA operon copy number in prokaryotes, as well as a switch to pathogenicity in fungal communities. In addition, pulse disturbance by soil tillage is associated with an increased influence of stochastic processes upon prokaryote community assembly, but fungicide used in arable soils results in niche assembly of fungal communities compared to untilled grassland. Overall, bacteria, archaea, and fungi do not share a common response to land management change, and estimates of biodiversity do not capture important facets of community adaptation to stresses adequately.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding soil organic carbon dynamics at larger scales

This chapter focuses on the effects of biotic and abiotic factors controlling soil organic carbon dynamics at continental to global scales. On the side of natural effects, it highlights processes that can control carbon inputs, turnover and stabilization in soils. On the side of anthropogenic effects, the chapter focuses on the role of climate change as well as historic and modern land conversion. The chapter also divides anthropogenic effects into direct and indirect disturbances done by humans. Both overarching sections close with a short synthesis.

Doetterl, Sebastian↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Comparison of Molten-Salt Electrolysis and Carbothermic Reduction for the Production of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon

Metallurgical-grade silicon (MG-Si) is an important source material for many industrial applications, including the manufacture of alloys, solar photovoltaics, and electronics. The process to refine raw materials into MG-Si is energy-intensive, with the predominant method of submerged-arc furnaces requiring energy consumption of approximately 11–13 kWh/kg Si. Recent research has discussed promising methods for reducing the energy required for the silicon production process, including the use of molten-salt electrolysis (MSE), a technique that offers potential savings in energy consumption without requiring carbon inputs for the process. This paper presents a techno-economic study of a potential industrial-scale MSE plant for MG-Si production to evaluate the trade-offs between capital and operating costs of the system. Capital costs are sourced from recent MG-Si plants and an existing cost model developed for MSE processes that includes the size of the plant and the operating temperature among its inputs. The results show that MSE technology has the potential to be an economically cost-competitive option for MG-Si production if the technology successfully scales to industrial production and matures enough to allow for financing costs similar to that of a comparably sized submerged-arc furnace plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

The overall goal of this study was to provide a quantitative understanding of the cycling of carbon in the soils associated with deep-rooting Amazon forests. In particular, we wished to apply the understanding gained by answering two questions: (1) what changes will accompany the major land use change in this region, the conversion of forest to pasture? and (2) what is the role of carbon stored deeper than one meter in depth in these soils? To construct carbon budgets for pasture and forest soils we combined the following: measurements of carbon stocks in above-ground vegetation, root biomass, detritus, and soil organic matter; rates of carbon inputs to soil and detrital layers using litterfall collection and sequential coring to estimate fine root turnover; C-14 analyses of fractionated SOM and soil CO2 to estimate residence times; C-13 analyses to estimate C inputs to pasture soils from C-4 grasses; soil pCO2, volumetric water content, and radon gradients to estimate CO2 production as a function of soil depth; soil respiration to estimate total C outputs; and a model of soil C dynamics that defines SOM fractions cycling on annual, decadal, and millennial time scales.

Trumbore, Susan E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

The objective of this grant was to complete below-ground carbon budgets for pastures and forest soils in the Amazon. Profiles of radon and carbon dioxide were used to estimate depth distribution of CO2 production in soil. This information is necessary for determining the importance of deep roots as sources of carbon inputs. Samples were collected for measuring root biomass from new research sites at Santana de Araguaia and Trombetas. Soil gases will be analyzed for CO2 and (14)CO2, and soil organic matter will be analyzed for C-14. Estimates of soil texture from the RADAMBRASIL database were merged with climate data to calculate soil water extraction by forest canopies during the dry season. In addition, a preliminary map of areas where deep roots are needed for deep soil water was produced. A list of manuscripts and papers prepared during the reporting periods is given.

Davidson, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Satellite-derived leaf-area-index and vegetation maps as input to global carbon cycle models - A hierarchical approach

A hierarchical procedure for developing a leaf area index (LAI) map of deciduous boreal forests is studied. The collection of spectral reflectance data from the Boundary Waters Canoe area in Minnesota using helicopter-, high-altitude aircraft-, and Landsat-mounted spectral sensors is described. The relationship between LAI and biomass and the reflectance ratio is analyzed. The sensitivity of canopy reflectance in the visible and infrared to the LAI of the canopy for various boreal forest species is evaluated. The data reveal that Landsat data are useful for producing LAI maps of deciduous forest areas and the maps provide data which clarifies the function of vegetation in the global carbon cycle models.

Badhwar, G. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil Carbon Stocks Not Linked to Aboveground Litter Input and Chemistry of Old-Growth Forest and Adjacent Prairie

The long-standing assumption that aboveground plant litter inputs have a substantial influence on soil organic carbon storage (SOC) and dynamics has been challenged by a new paradigm for SOC formation and persistence. We tested the importance of plant litter chemistry on SOC storage, distribution, composition, and age by comparing two highly contrasting ecosystems: an old-growth coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest, with highly aromatic litter, and an adjacent coastal prairie, with more easily decomposed litter. We hypothesized that if plant litter chemistry was the primary driver, redwood would store more and older SOC that was less microbially processed than prairie. Total soil carbon stocks to 110 cm depth were higher in prairie (35 kg C m —2 ) than redwood (28 kg C m —2 ). Radiocarbon values indicated shorter SOC residence times in redwood than prairie throughout the profile. Higher amounts of pyrogenic carbon and a higher degree of microbial processing of SOC appear to be instrumental for soil carbon storage and persistence in prairie, while differences in fine-root carbon inputs likely contribute to younger SOC in redwood. We conclude that at these sites fire residues, root inputs, and soil properties influence soil carbon dynamics to a greater degree than the properties of aboveground litter.

13C-NMR spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biological mechanisms may contribute to soil carbon saturation patterns

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a key strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 , yet SOC pools often appear to saturate, or increase at a declining rate, as carbon (C) inputs increase. Soil C saturation is commonly hypothesized to result from the finite amount of reactive mineral surface area available for retaining SOC, and is accordingly represented in SOC models as a physicochemically determined SOC upper limit. However, mineral-associated SOC is largely microbially generated. In this perspective, we present the hypothesis that apparent SOC saturation patterns could emerge as a result of ecological constraints on microbial biomass—for example, via competition or predation—leading to reduced C flow through microbes and a reduced rate of mineral-associated SOC formation as soil C inputs increase. Microbially explicit SOC models offer an opportunity to explore this hypothesis, yet most of these models predict linear microbial biomass increases with C inputs and insensitivity of SOC to input rates. Synthesis of 54 C addition studies revealed constraints on microbial biomass as C inputs increase. Different hypotheses limiting microbial density were embedded in a three-pool SOC model without explicit limits on mineral surface area. As inputs increased, the model demonstrated either no change, linear, or apparently saturating increases in mineral-associated and particulate SOC pools. Taken together, our results suggest that microbial constraints are common and could lead to reduced mineral-associated SOC formation as input rates increase. We conclude that SOC responses to altered C inputs—or any environmental change—are influenced by the ecological factors that limit microbial populations, allowing for a wider range of potential SOC responses to stimuli. Understanding how biotic versus abiotic factors contribute to these patterns will better enable us to predict and manage soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Martian ocean: First acid, then alkaline

In Mars' distant past, carbon dioxide and water may have been plentiful. Values of total outgassed CO2 from several to about 10 bar are consistent with present knowledge, and this amount of CO2 implies an amount of water outgassed equal to an equivalent depth of 500 to 1000 m. It is quite reasonable, therefore, to envision an early Mars in which there was a body or bodies of liquid water, perhaps in the northern plains, and a dense carbon dioxide atmosphere. Under such conditions, the pH of the water will be low, due to the dissolution of carbon dioxide in the water to form carbonic acid. This acidic water is capable of weathering the available rock quite intensely, particularly because this rock is likely to be heavily fractured (from meteorite bombardment) or even consist of fine particles (such as pyroclastic deposits). As time goes on, however, the carbon dioxide atmosphere will rapidly pass through the ocean to form carbonate deposits. As the density of the atmosphere decreases, so will the flux of carbonic acid into the ocean. Without this input of carbonic acid, the effect of the dissolved weathering products will be to increase the pH of the water. The ocean will then become alkaline. To study this process, I have developed a geochemical cycle model for the atmosphere-hydrosphere-regolith system of Mars. The treatment of geochemical cycles as complex kinetic chemical reactions has been undertaken for terrestrial systems in recent years with much success. This method is capable of elegantly handling the interactions between the simultaneous chemical reactions needed to understand such a system.

Schaefer, M. W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fine root and soil carbon stocks are positively related in grasslands but not in forests

Increasing fine root carbon (FRC) inputs into soils has been proposed as a solution to increasing soil organic carbon (SOC). However, FRC inputs can also enhance SOC loss through priming. Here, we tested the broad-scale relationships between SOC and FRC at 43 sites across the US National Ecological Observatory Network. We found that SOC and FRC stocks were positively related with an across-ecosystem slope of 7 ± 3 kg SOC m −2 per kg FRC m −2 , but this relationship was driven by grasslands. Grasslands had double the across-ecosystem slope while forest FRC and SOC were unrelated. Furthermore, deep grassland soils primarily showed net SOC accrual relative to FRC input. Conversely, forests had high variability in whether FRC inputs were related to net SOC priming or accrual. We conclude that while FRC increases could lead to increased SOC in grasslands, especially at depth, the FRC-SOC relationship remains difficult to characterize in forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

NASA/GSFC Research Activities for the Global Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Prospectus for the 21st Century

There are increasing concerns that anthropogenic inputs of carbon dioxide into the Earth system have the potential for climate change. In response to these concerns, the GSFC Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes has formed the Ocean Carbon Science Team (OCST) to contribute to greater understanding of the global ocean carbon cycle. The overall goals of the OCST are to: 1) detect changes in biological components of the ocean carbon cycle through remote sensing of biooptical properties, 2) refine understanding of ocean carbon uptake and sequestration through application of basic research results, new satellite algorithms, and improved model parameterizations, 3) develop and implement new sensors providing critical missing environmental information related to the oceanic carbon cycle and the flux of CO2 across the air-sea interface. The specific objectives of the OCST are to: 1) establish a 20-year time series of ocean color, 2) develop new remote sensing technologies, 3) validate ocean remote sensing observations, 4) conduct ocean carbon cycle scientific investigations directly related to remote sensing data, emphasizing physiological, empirical and coupled physical/biological models, satellite algorithm development and improvement, and analysis of satellite data sets. These research and mission objectives are intended to improve our understanding of global ocean carbon cycling and contribute to national goals by maximizing the use of remote sensing data.

Gregg, W. W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Drought Reduces Formation, but Enhances Persistence, of Mineral‐Associated Organic Matter in a Grassland Soil

Drought effects are pervasive in terrestrial ecosystems, yet there is limited understanding of how drought impacts the transformation of plant carbon (C) inputs to mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM)—the largest and slowest-cycling pool of soil organic carbon (SOC). In a 12-week 13 C-CO 2 greenhouse labeling experiment, we tracked the formation of MAOM derived from the two dominant sources of plant C input to the mineral soil—living root inputs ( 13 C-rhizodeposits) and decaying root inputs ( 13 C-root detritus)—under normal moisture and droughted conditions in a semiarid grassland soil. At the end of the 12-week period, we also measured the persistence of 13 C-MAOM formed from rhizodeposits versus root detritus via a subsequent persistence assay. Drought reduced the formation of MAOM derived from living roots by decreasing rhizodeposits, reducing microbial growth rates, and altering the composition of organic matter, lipids, and metabolites. Drought initially delayed the formation of MAOM derived from root detritus by slowing the early stages of root litter decomposition (week 4–8), but did not decrease total MAOM formation by the end of the 12-week period. Notably, drought enhanced the persistence of MAOM derived from root detritus, but did not influence the persistence of MAOM derived from rhizodeposits. Our results provide some of the first direct evidence that drought can reduce the formation of MAOM in a grassland soil, but may enhance its persistence, based on the source of plant input from which MAOM is derived.

13C- labeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗