External forcing explains recent decadal variability of the ocean carbon sink
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Galen McKinley↗
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Potential Carbon Negative Commercial Aviation through Land Management
Brazilian terra preta soil and char-enhanced soil agricultural systems have demonstrated both enhanced plant biomass and crop yield and functions as a carbon sink. Similar carbon sinking has been demonstrated for both glycophyte and halophyte plants and plant roots. Within the assumption of 3.7 t-C/ha/yr soils and plant root carbon sinking, it is possible to provide carbon neutral U.S. commercial aviation using about 8.5% of U.S. arable lands. The total airline CO2 release would be offset by carbon credits for properly managed soils and plant rooting, becoming carbon neutral for carbon sequestered synjet processing. If these lands were also used to produce biomass fuel crops such as soybeans at an increased yield of 60 bu/acre (225gal/ha), they would provide over 3.15 10(exp 9) gallons biodiesel fuel. If all this fuel were refined into biojet it would provide a 16% biojet-84% synjet blend. This allows the U.S. aviation industry to become carbon negative (carbon negative commercial aviation through carbon credits). Arid land recovery could yield even greater benefits.
Hendricks, Robert C.↗
Drought Rapidly Diminishes the Large Net CO2 Uptake in 2011 Over Semi-Arid Australia
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010-11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010-11 net CO2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010-11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011-12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012-13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000-01 large net CO2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle.
fluorescence↗
Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s
There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.
Potter, Christopher S.↗
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project
The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Warming and Increased Respiration Have Transformed an Alpine Steppe Ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau From a Carbon Dioxide Sink Into a Source
Cold region ecosystems store vast amounts of soil organic carbon (C), which upon warming and decomposition can affect the C balance and potentially change these ecosystems from C sinks to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources. We quantified the decadal year-round CO 2 flux from an alpine steppe-ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau using eddy covariance and automatic chamber approaches during a period of significant warming (0.13°C per 10 years; and 0.18°C in the non-growing season alone: 1st October to next 30th April). The results showed that ongoing climate change, mainly warming within the topsoil layers, is the main reason for the site’s change from a sink for to a source of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Non-growing-season ecosystem respiration accounted for 51% of the annual ecosystem respiration and has increased significantly. The growing seasons (1st May to 30th September) were consistent CO 2 sink periods without significant changes over the study period. Observations revealed high-emission events from the end of the non-growing season to early in the growing season (1st March to fifteenth May), which significantly (p < 0.01) increased at a rate of 22.6 g C m -2 decade -1 , ranging from 14.6 ± 10.7 g C m -2 yr -1 in 2012 to 35.3 ± 12.1 g C m -2 yr -1 in 2017. Further, structural equation modeling suggested that active layer warming was the key factor in explaining changes in ecosystem respiration, leading to significant changes in net ecosystem exchange over the period 2011–2020 and indicated that these changes have already transformed the ecosystem from a CO 2 sink into a source. These results can be used to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to increased warming during the non-growing period.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
ITreeForeCast: An integrated modeling software to simulate tree level growth and forest carbon storage
Healthy trees in forest act as a natural carbon sink, capturing carbon. As they grow, they store carbon in their trunks, leaves and roots. Not all trees store carbon at the same rate, or in the same quantities, as it depends on a variety of biophysical and climatic factors. Furthermore, although carbon estimation in trees can be complex, the precision of estimates is tightly linked to trees growth, both in diameter and height. However, the simulation of carbon uptake by forest and forest growth has each been modeled separately, and independently at differing levels of detail and spatial resolution. In this paper, we introduce ITreeForeCast, a simulation model combining the two types of modeling on a unified platform, enabling the investigation of impacts of management strategies on carbon sequestration and wood products. ITreeForeCast is a user-extendable framework that offers new opportunities to model, simulate, and visualize the dynamics of individual trees in a forest, simulate management strategies over time, and carbon uptake.
09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
Introduction to Carbon Sensing in Soil. A surface-level review of traditional and alternative methods of soil carbon measurement
Soil carbon can be divided into two categories: organic and inorganic. Soil inorganic carbon (SIC) is present in carbonate minerals in the soil and is often found in dry, arid regions. Examples of SIC include calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) and magnesium carbonate (MgCO 3 ), both of which play important roles in soil health. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is found in fresh plant matter (available SOC) and as humus or charcoal (inert SOC). Both types of carbon act as storage in the global carbon cycle. As a carbon sink, soil carbon has the potential to store carbon that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere as CO 2 , one of the primary greenhouse emissions. As such, soil is under increasing attention and research to be used as a sequestration (i.e., isolation) method to reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. This type of carbon sequestration is called biological sequestration. SOC typically stores carbon for several decades (depending on decomposition rates) while SIC can store carbon for more than 70,000 years. Common sequestration techniques for SOC usually fall under the category of land management: planting perennials, keeping plant residue and composting, reducing tilling, and other agricultural practices that vary by region. SIC sequestration through carbonates naturally takes thousands of years but there have been studies to increase SIC sequestration through the addition of silicates.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Environmental DNA Detection in Marine Macrophyte Ecosystems as a Potential Blue Carbon Source in Sediments
“Blue carbon” refers to the carbon sequestered by the world’s oceanic and coastal ecosystems, particularly through coastal vegetation such as mangroves, salt marshes, seagrasses, and marine macroalgae. These ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle by serving as significant carbon sinks, absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it in biomass and sediments over long periods. This study explores the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect marine macrophytes and microalgae assemblages contributing to blue carbon in sediments across various coastal ecosystems. The research addresses the challenges of traditional monitoring methods by utilizing high-throughput sequencing of the 18S-V9 region amplified using eDNA from sediment samples collected at eight locations in the United States and South Korea. The results reveal a diverse array of taxa, underscoring the variability in community composition across different conditions. Notably, sites with seagrass beds and Ulva blooms showed distinct patterns in microalgal community structure. This study underscores the potential of eDNA analysis in providing comprehensive insights into the biodiversity of marine macrophyte ecosystems, thus informing conservation efforts and enhancing the understanding of marine ecological dynamics.
Xing, Qikun (ORCID:0000000206179027)↗
Five Decades of Northern Land Carbon Uptake Revealed by the Interhemispheric CO2 Gradient
The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades. It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink.
Carbon cycle↗
Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments
Climate warming is accelerating the changes in the global terrestrial ecosystems and particularly those in the northern high latitudes (NHLs; poleward of 50° N) and rendering the land–atmosphere carbon exchange highly uncertain. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) employs the most updated climate models to estimate terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics driven by a new set of socioeconomic and climate change pathways. By analyzing the future (2015–2100) carbon fluxes estimated by 10 CMIP6 models, we quantitatively evaluated the projected magnitudes, trends, and uncertainties in the global and NHL carbon fluxes under four scenarios plus the role of NHLs in the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Overall, the models suggest that the global and NHL terrestrial ecosystems will be consistent carbon sinks in the future, and the magnitude of the carbon sinks is projected to be larger under scenarios with higher radiative forcing. By the end of this century, the models on average estimate the NHL net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as 0.54 ± 0.77, 1.01 ± 0.98, 0.97 ± 1.62, and 1.05 ± 1.83 Pg C yr –1 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. The uncertainties are not substantially reduced compared with earlier results, e.g., the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Although NHLs contribute a small fraction of the global carbon sink (~13 %), the relative uncertainties in NHL NEP are much larger than the global level. Our results provide insights into future carbon flux evolutions under future scenarios and highlight the urgent need to constrain the large uncertainties associated with model projections for making better climate mitigation strategies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Mixotrophic microbes create carbon tipping points under warming
Mixotrophs are ubiquitous and integral to microbial food webs, but their impacts on the dynamics and functioning of broader ecosystems are largely unresolved. Here, we show that mixotrophy produces a unique type of food web module that exhibits unusual ecological dynamics, with surprising consequences for carbon flux under warming. We develop a generalizable model of a mixotrophic food web module that incorporates dynamic switching between phototrophy and phagotrophy to assess ecological dynamics and total system CO 2 flux. We find that warming switches mixotrophic systems between alternative stable carbon states—including a phototrophy-dominant carbon sink state, a phagotrophy-dominant carbon source state and cycling between these two. Moreover, warming always shifts this mixotrophic system from a carbon sink state to a carbon source state, but a coordinated increase in nutrients can erase early warning signals of this transition and expand hysteresis. This suggests that mixotrophs can generate critical carbon tipping points under warming that will be more abrupt and less reversible when combined with increased nutrient levels, having widespread implications for ecosystem functioning in the face of rapid global change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Thermal adaptation of soil microbial growth traits in response to chronic warming
ABSTRACT Adaptation of soil microbes due to warming from climate change has been observed, but it remains unknown what microbial growth traits are adaptive to warming. We studied bacterial isolates from the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site, where field soils have been experimentally heated to 5°C above ambient temperature with unheated controls for 30 years. We hypothesized that Alphaproteobacteria from warmed plots have (i) less temperature-sensitive growth rates; (ii) higher optimum growth temperatures; and (iii) higher maximum growth temperatures compared to isolates from control plots. We made high-throughput measurements of bacterial growth in liquid cultures over time and across temperatures from 22°C to 37°C in 2–3°C increments. We estimated growth rates by fitting Gompertz models to the growth data. Temperature sensitivity of growth rate, optimum growth temperature, and maximum growth temperature were estimated by the Ratkowsky 1983 model and a modified Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) model. To determine evidence of adaptation, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares tests on isolates from warmed and control soils. Our results showed evidence of adaptation of higher optimum growth temperature of bacterial isolates from heated soils. However, we observed no evidence of adaptation of temperature sensitivity of growth and maximum growth temperature. Our project begins to capture the shape of the temperature response curves, but illustrates that the relationship between growth and temperature is complex and cannot be limited to a single point in the biokinetic range. IMPORTANCE Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon sink and the foundation of our food, fiber, and fuel systems. Healthy soils are carbon sinks, storing more carbon than they release. This reduces the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and buffers against climate change. Soil microbes drive biogeochemical cycling and contribute to soil health through organic matter breakdown, plant growth promotion, and nutrient distribution. In this study, we determined how soil microbial growth traits respond to long-term soil warming. We found that bacterial isolates from warmed plots showed evidence of adaptation of optimum growth temperature. This suggests that increased microbial biomass and growth in a warming world could result in greater carbon storage. As temperatures increase, greater microbial activity may help reduce the soil carbon feedback loop. Our results provide insight on how atmospheric carbon cycling and soil health may respond in a warming world.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century
Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements
Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing
Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850–2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Compartment-specific energy requirements of photosynthetic carbon metabolism in Camelina sativa leaves
Abstract Main conclusion The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway provides cytosolic NADPH yet reduces carbon and energy use efficiency. Repressing this pathway and introducing cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase may increase crop yields by ≈5%. Abstract Detailed knowledge about plant energy metabolism may aid crop improvements. Using published estimates of flux through central carbon metabolism, we phenotype energy metabolism in illuminated Camelina sativa leaves (grown at 22 °C, 500 µmol photons m −2 s −1 ) and report several findings. First, the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (OPPP) transfers 3.3% of the NADPH consumed in the Calvin–Benson cycle to the cytosol. NADPH supply proceeds at about 10% of the rate of net carbon assimilation. However, concomitantly respired CO 2 accounts for 4.8% of total rubisco activity. Hence, 4.8% of the flux through the Calvin–Benson cycle and photorespiration is spent on supplying cytosolic NADPH, a significant investment. Associated energy requirements exceed the energy output of the OPPP. Thus, autotrophic carbon metabolism is not simply optimised for flux into carbon sinks but sacrifices carbon and energy use efficiency to support cytosolic energy metabolism. To reduce these costs, we suggest bioengineering plants with a repressed cytosolic OPPP, and an inserted cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase tuned to compensate for the loss in OPPP activity (if required). Second, sucrose cycling is a minor investment in overall leaf energy metabolism but a significant investment in cytosolic energy metabolism. Third, leaf energy balancing strictly requires oxidative phosphorylation, cofactor export from chloroplasts, and peroxisomal NADH import. Fourth, mitochondria are energetically self-sufficient. Fifth, carbon metabolism has an ATP/NADPH demand ratio of 1.52 which is met if ≤ 21.7% of whole electron flux is cyclic. Sixth, electron transport has a photon use efficiency of ≥ 62%. Last, we discuss interactions between the OPPP and the cytosolic oxidation–reduction cycle in supplying leaf cytosolic NADPH.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century
A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗