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NASA NTRS2011

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Abstract Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO 3 − ) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N‐rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha −1 yr −1 , the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO 3 − relative to the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha −1 yr −1 ). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N‐export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO 3 − export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO 3 − (δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO 3 − at the hillslope soil‐saprolite. By contrast, the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO 3 − , and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N‐cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO 3 − overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Integrating causal reasoning at different levels of abstraction

In this paper, a problem-solving system which uses a multilevel causal model of its domain is described. The system functions in the role of a pilot's assistant in the domain of commercial air transport emergencies. The model represents causal relationships among the aircraft subsystems, the effectors (engines, control surfaces), the forces that act on an aircraft in flight (thrust, lift), and the aircraft's flight profile (speed, altitude, etc.). The causal relationships are represented at three levels of abstraction: Boolean, qualitative, and quantitative, and reasoning about causes and effects can take place at each of these levels. Since processing at each level has different characteristics with respect to speed, the type of data required, and the specificity of the results, the problem-solving system can adapt to a wide variety of situations. The system is currently being implemented in the KEE(TM) development environment on a Symbolics Lisp machine.

Hudlicka, Eva↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head Down Tilted Bed Rest: Preliminary Results

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., 22 days or longer) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes are solely related to peripheral changes from reduced vestibular stimulation, body unloading, body fluid shifts or that they may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, a recent study reported associations between microgravity and flattening of the posterior eye globe and protrusion of the optic nerve [1] possibly as the result of increased intracranial pressure due to microgravity induced bodily fluid shifts [3]. Moreover, elevated intracranial pressure has been related to white matter microstructural damage [2]. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning. Long duration head down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system [4]. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on brain structure [5]. Here we present results of the first six subjects. Six subjects were assessed at 12 and 7 days before-, at 7, 30, and ~70 days in-, and at 8 and 12 days post 70 days of bed rest at the NASA bed rest facility in UTMB, Galveston, TX, USA. At each time point structural MRI scans (i.e., high resolution T1-weighted imaging and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)) were obtained using a 3T Siemens scanner. Focal changes over time in gray matter density were assessed using the voxel based morphometry 8 (VBM8) toolbox under SPM. Longitudinal processing in VBM8 includes linear registration of each scan to the mean of the subject and subsequently transforming all scans in to MNI space by applying the warp from the mean subject to MNI to the individual gray matter segmentations. Modulation was applied so that all images represented the volume of the original structure in native space. Voxel wise analysis was carried out on the gray matter images after smoothing, using a flexible factorial design with family wise error correction. Focal changes in white matter microstructural integrity were assessed using tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) as part of FMRIB software library (FSL). TBSS registers all DTI scans to standard space. It subsequently creates a study specific white matter skeleton of the major white matter tracts. For each subject, for each DTI metric (i.e. fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD), and radial diffusivity (RD)), the maximum value in a line perpendicular to the skeleton tract is projected to the skeleton. Non-parametric permutation based t-tests and ANOVA's were used for voxel-wise comparison of the skeletons. For both VBM and TBSS, comparison of pre bed rest measurements did not show significant differences. VBM analysis revealed decreased gray matter density in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate (see Figure) from 'pre to in bed rest'. Over the same time period, there was an increase in gray matter density in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus (see Figure). The majority of these changes did not recover from 'during to post bed rest'. TBSS analysis did not reveal significant changes in white matter microstructural integrity after correction for multiple comparisons. Uncorrected analyses (p<.015) revealed an increase in RD in the cerebellum and brainstem from pre bed rest to the first week in bed rest that did not recover post bed rest. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in gray matter changes and potentially in microstructural white matter changes in areas that are important for neuro motor behavior and cognition. These changes did not recover at two weeks post bed rest. Whether the effects of bed rest wear off at longer times post bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Hyde, David C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Koppelmans, Vincent↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., > or = 22 days) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, experimental studies revealed changes in the gray matter (GM) of the brain after simulated microgravity. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning and motor behavior. Long duration head-down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on the brain. VBM analysis revealed a progressive decrease from pre- to in- bed rest in GM volume in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate. Over the same time period, there was a progressive increase in GM volume in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus. The majority of these changes did not fully recover during the post-bed rest period. Analysis of lobular GM volumes obtained with BRAINS showed significantly increased volume from pre-bed rest to in-bed rest in GM of the parietal lobe and the third ventricle. Temporal GM volume at 70 days in bed rest was smaller than that at the first pre-bed rest measurement. Trend analysis showed significant positive linear and negative quadratic relationships between parietal GM and time, a positive linear relationship between third ventricle volume and time, and a negative linear relationship between cerebellar GM volume and time. FM performance improved from pre-bed rest session 1 to session 2. From the second pre-bed rest measure to the last-day-in-bed rest, there was a significant decrease in performance that only partially recovered post-bed rest. No significant association was observed between changes in brain volume and changes in functional mobility. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in local volumetric GM increase and decrease and adversely affect functional mobility. These changes in brain structure and performance were not related in this sample. Whether the effects of bed rest dissipate at longer times post-bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research including more subjects and longer follow-up times.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exercise Effects on the Course of Gray Matter Changes Over 70 Days of Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight affects posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes through direct effects on peripheral changes that result from reduced vestibular stimulation and body unloading. Effects of microgravity on sensorimotor function have been investigated on earth using bed rest studies. Long duration bed rest serves as a space-flight analogue because it mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. It has been hypothesized that the cephalad fluid shift that has been observed in microgravity could potentially affect central nervous system function and structure, and thereby indirectly affect sensorimotor or cognitive functioning. Preliminary results of one of our ongoing studies indeed showed that 70 days of long duration head down-tilt bed rest results in focal changes in gray matter volume from pre-bed rest to various time points during bed rest. These gray matter changes that could reflect fluid shifts as well as neuroplasticity were related to decrements in motor skills such as maintenance of equilibrium. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both inand post-flight we are currently conducting a study that investigates the potential preventive effects of exercise on gray matter and motor performance changes that we observed over the course of bed rest. Numerous studies have shown beneficial effects of aerobic exercise on brain structure and cognitive performance in healthy and demented subjects over a large age range. We therefore hypothesized that an exercise intervention in bed rest could potentially mitigate or prevent the effects of bed rest on the central nervous system. Here we present preliminary outcomes of our study.

Koppelmans, V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗

NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems - Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a 'truly' autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, Peter↗

NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems: Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a truly autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Integrating security in a group oriented distributed system

A distributed security architecture is proposed for incorporation into group oriented distributed systems, and in particular, into the Isis distributed programming toolkit. The primary goal of the architecture is to make common group oriented abstractions robust in hostile settings, in order to facilitate the construction of high performance distributed applications that can tolerate both component failures and malicious attacks. These abstractions include process groups and causal group multicast. Moreover, a delegation and access control scheme is proposed for use in group oriented systems. The focus is the security architecture; particular cryptosystems and key exchange protocols are not emphasized.

Reiter, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

accident investigation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Detection of Charge Jumps in Superconducting Qubits with a Convolutional Neural Network

Ionizing radiation from cosmic rays and gammas can induce discontinuous jumps in the environmental charge of superconducting qubits (charge jumps), causing correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant quantum computing while simultaneously providing a detection signature for quantum sensing applications. Current detection methods operate offline, introducing latency incompatible with in-the-loop qubit control. In this paper, an online detector of charge jumps for superconducting qubits, based on a dilated causal convolutional neural network (DCCNN) designed for in-the-loop deployment on the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK) platform, is presented. The network is trained on synthetic Ramsey tomography scans generated from qubit templates measured at the Northwestern Experimental Underground Site (NEXUS) at Fermilab, and translated to FPGA firmware via hls4ml with ap_fixed$\langle 16,6 \rangle$ quantization, reaching a per-inference latency of $6.19 μ$s on the Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC ZCU216. At this operating point the DCCNN matches the detection efficiency of the established offline $χ^2$ algorithm ($0.843 \pm 0.022$ vs. $0.866 \pm 0.020$ on $|Δq| \in [0.1, 0.5] e$ at matched false-positive rate), while requiring no per-qubit hyperparameter tuning. This shifts charge-jump detection from a post-hoc diagnostic to a control-loop primitive, enabling adaptive protocols that respond to radiation-induced events in situ, with applications to quantum-computing error mitigation and to the use of superconducting qubits as particle detectors.

Gaytan-Villarreal, Daniel [Carnegie Mellon U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (↗

DOE OSTI2020

fbWecCntrl

fbWecCntrl is set of MATLAB functions and scripts demonstrating a causal impedance matching approach to wave energy converter (WEC) control design. SAND2020-12219 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Coe, Ryan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Cognitive States Using Machine Learning Fusion Paradigms to Reduce Model Uncertainty

The development of a synergetic system between humans and technology is a challenge that the scientific community has been facing for many years. Our aeronautic research aims to enhance this synergy between humans and machines through predictive human performance modeling for systems to mitigate high-risk situations. By being able to predict and anticipate human states, the crew monitoring system should be able to adjust and support the pilot for aviation safety. Our work focusing on attention-related human performance-limiting states (AHPLS) that impact a pilot’s performance and introduce high-risk catastrophic situations [1]. For example, AHPLS has been cited as a causal factor in more than 50% of all loss control in flight and thus contributes significantly toward commercial aviation fatalities [1, 2]. Cognitive state and its physiological fingerprint can be valuable information for this detecting AHPLS, but human cognitive state detection is still a major limitation for these crew monitoring systems.

machine learning↗