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NASA NTRS1992

Event-driven simulation in SELMON: An overview of EDSE

EDSE (event-driven simulation engine), a model-based event-driven simulator implemented for SELMON, a tool for sensor selection and anomaly detection in real-time monitoring is described. The simulator is used in conjunction with a causal model to predict future behavior of the model from observed data. The behavior of the causal model is interpreted as equivalent to the behavior of the physical system being modeled. An overview of the functionality of the simulator and the model-based event-driven simulation paradigm on which it is based is provided. Included are high-level descriptions of the following key properties: event consumption and event creation, iterative simulation, synchronization and filtering of monitoring data from the physical system. Finally, how EDSE stands with respect to the relevant open issues of discrete-event and model-based simulation is discussed.

Rouquette, Nicolas F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Role of Instability Waves in Predicting Jet Noise

Debate over whether linear instability waves play a role in the prediction of jet noise has been going on for many years. Parallel mean flow models, such as the one proposed by Lilley, usually neglect these waves because they cause the solution to become infinite. The present paper solves the true non-parallel acoustic equations for a two-dimensional shear layer by using a vector Greens function and assuming small mean flow spread rate. The results show that linear instability waves must be accounted for in order to construct a proper causal solution to the problem.

Goldstein, Marvin E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Genetic Network Inference: From Co-Expression Clustering to Reverse Engineering

Advances in molecular biological, analytical, and computational technologies are enabling us to systematically investigate the complex molecular processes underlying biological systems. In particular, using high-throughput gene expression assays, we are able to measure the output of the gene regulatory network. We aim here to review datamining and modeling approaches for conceptualizing and unraveling the functional relationships implicit in these datasets. Clustering of co-expression profiles allows us to infer shared regulatory inputs and functional pathways. We discuss various aspects of clustering, ranging from distance measures to clustering algorithms and multiple-duster memberships. More advanced analysis aims to infer causal connections between genes directly, i.e., who is regulating whom and how. We discuss several approaches to the problem of reverse engineering of genetic networks, from discrete Boolean networks, to continuous linear and non-linear models. We conclude that the combination of predictive modeling with systematic experimental verification will be required to gain a deeper insight into living organisms, therapeutic targeting, and bioengineering.

Dhaeseleer, Patrik↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Resolving Wave-Particle Duality Could Accelerate the Mass Production of Quantum Computers

Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern. Quantum computers, hypothesized in 1980s, use concepts of superposition and entanglement phenomena. Although theoretical propositions and associated search algorithms for accurate measurements are being generated, the development of practical quantum computers themselves are advancing very slowly requiring enormous time and investments. The underlying concepts of a quantum computer are not new to the optical domain. However, the crucial enabling concepts of Entanglement and Superposition Principle are remaining clouded under the unresolved postulates, Wave-Particle Duality (WPD), and Wave Packet Reduction (WPR), implicating incompleteness in the interpretations of the mathematical formalism behind Quantum Mechanics. The WPD debate started during late1600 between Newton and Huygens. Young’s resolution of WPD through his double-slit experiment in 1802 was effectively overturned by Einstein’s interpretation of photoelectric effect as due to “indivisible light quanta”. However, Einstein disowned his “light quanta” postulate shortly before his death in1955, even though it had earned him the Nobel Prize. We resolve WPD by synthesizing Newton’s and Maxwell’s concepts and assume atoms do emit quanta but propagate as time-finite exponential pulses. This assumption also resolves WPR for light-matter interaction with the assumption that Schrodinger’s ψ represents atom’s internal dipolar amplitude stimulations. This over-turns Born’s interpretation that ψ only represents the abstract mathematical probability amplitude, rather than the physical “internal amplitude stimulation” of the quantum entity. However, our concept of atomic pulse emission forces us to re-derive the expression for the N-slit grating-spectrometer response since the classical derivation uses CW light, which does not exist. This pulsespectrometric response function strengthens our postulate since the grating response to the exponential pulse appears to be the convolution of a Lorentzian spectrum with the classical CW response function of the grating. The Fourier Transform of an exponential function is Lorentzian and QM predicts spontaneous emission line width to be Lorentzian. Then, conceptually one can extend the grating-expression (with N=2) to get the double-slit pattern. This approach preserves the classical causality that each of the two slits, like the N-signals out of a grating, are physically real and jointly stimulate the quantum detector array at the far field to generate the “Local” cosine fringes. The detector array executes the square modulus operation on its imposed dipolar amplitude stimulation and absorbs the necessary energy to fill up their quantum cups. Hence the double-slit pattern must also be “Local”, just as the N-slit grating spectrum is generated locally at the exit spectral-plane of the spectrometer. This removes the need to believe that “single photons” mysteriously generate the double slit pattern.

Quantum Computer↗

NASA NTRS2007

Accident/Mishap Investigation System

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

Keller, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exercise Effects on the Course of Gray Matter Changes Over 70 Days of Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight affects posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes through direct effects on peripheral changes that result from reduced vestibular stimulation and body unloading. Effects of microgravity on sensorimotor function have been investigated on earth using bed rest studies. Long duration bed rest serves as a space-flight analogue because it mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. It has been hypothesized that the cephalad fluid shift that has been observed in microgravity could potentially affect central nervous system function and structure, and thereby indirectly affect sensorimotor or cognitive functioning. Preliminary results of one of our ongoing studies indeed showed that 70 days of long duration head down-tilt bed rest results in focal changes in gray matter volume from pre-bed rest to various time points during bed rest. These gray matter changes that could reflect fluid shifts as well as neuroplasticity were related to decrements in motor skills such as maintenance of equilibrium. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both inand post-flight we are currently conducting a study that investigates the potential preventive effects of exercise on gray matter and motor performance changes that we observed over the course of bed rest. Numerous studies have shown beneficial effects of aerobic exercise on brain structure and cognitive performance in healthy and demented subjects over a large age range. We therefore hypothesized that an exercise intervention in bed rest could potentially mitigate or prevent the effects of bed rest on the central nervous system. Here we present preliminary outcomes of our study.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dynamic test input generation for multiple-fault isolation

Recent work is Causal Reasoning has provided practical techniques for multiple fault diagnosis. These techniques provide a hypothesis/measurement diagnosis cycle. Using probabilistic methods, they choose the best measurements to make, then update fault hypotheses in response. For many applications such as computers and spacecraft, few measurement points may be accessible, or values may change quickly as the system under diagnosis operates. In these cases, a hypothesis/measurement cycle is insufficient. A technique is presented for a hypothesis/test-input/measurement diagnosis cycle. In contrast to generating tests a priori for determining device functionality, it dynamically generates tests in response to current knowledge about fault probabilities. It is shown how the mathematics previously used for measurement specification can be applied to the test input generation process. An example from an efficient implementation called Multi-Purpose Causal (MPC) is presented.

Schaefer, Phil↗

NASA NTRS1990

Possible Martian brines - Radar observations and models

The 1971 and 1973 Goldstone 12.6-cm radar observations of Mars are separate data sets which include reflectivity as a function of latitude, longitude, and season. It has been argued that secular reflectivity variations of Mars' surface are indicated by the data and that shallow subsurface melting is the causal mechanism most compatible with the observations; however, the melting hypothesis conflicts with accepted notions of the state and distribution of water on Mars. The data are examined to identify temporal and spatial domains within which statistically significant changes in measured reflectivity are clustered. Brines which might satisfy the best supported reflectivity variations are out of equilibrium with the chemical megaenvironment. It is unclear whether such a brine, if emplaced in the Martian regolith at a depth shallow enough to affect the radar reflectivity, could survive even a single freeze-thaw cycle. Some combination of unique scattering properties or some as yet unidentified process other than melting is responsible for any genuine reflectivity variations.

Zent, Aaron P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Necessary conditions for optimization in multiparameter discrete systems

A general first-order dynamic representation for discrete systems with several independent variables is proposed, based on the Dieudonne-Rashevsky form for partial differential equations. This representation does not restrict consideration to causal systems. A minimum principle for such systems is proved, thus extending results known for discrete-time systems to the case of several independent variables. The proof requires only the classical implicit function theorem.

Hegg, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Causal correlation of foliar biochemical concentrations with AVIRIS spectra using forced entry linear regression

A major goal of airborne imaging spectrometry is to estimate the biochemical composition of vegetation canopies from reflectance spectra. Remotely-sensed estimates of foliar biochemical concentrations of forests would provide valuable indicators of ecosystem function at regional and eventually global scales. Empirical research has shown a relationship exists between the amount of radiation reflected from absorption features and the concentration of given biochemicals in leaves and canopies (Matson et al., 1994, Johnson et al., 1994). A technique commonly used to determine which wavelengths have the strongest correlation with the biochemical of interest is unguided (stepwise) multiple regression. Wavelengths are entered into a multivariate regression equation, in their order of importance, each contributing to the reduction of the variance in the measured biochemical concentration. A significant problem with the use of stepwise regression for determining the correlation between biochemical concentration and spectra is that of 'overfitting' as there are significantly more wavebands than biochemical measurements. This could result in the selection of wavebands which may be more accurately attributable to noise or canopy effects. In addition, there is a real problem of collinearity in that the individual biochemical concentrations may covary. A strong correlation between the reflectance at a given wavelength and the concentration of a biochemical of interest, therefore, may be due to the effect of another biochemical which is closely related. Furthermore, it is not always possible to account for potentially suitable waveband omissions in the stepwise selection procedure. This concern about the suitability of stepwise regression has been identified and acknowledged in a number of recent studies (Wessman et al., 1988, Curran, 1989, Curran et al., 1992, Peterson and Hubbard, 1992, Martine and Aber, 1994, Kupiec, 1994). These studies have pointed to the lack of a physical link between wavelengths chosen by stepwise regression and the biochemical of interest, and this in turn has cast doubts on the use of imaging spectrometry for the estimation of foliar biochemical concentrations at sites distant from the training sites. To investigate this problem, an analysis was conducted on the variation in canopy biochemical concentrations and reflectance spectra using forced entry linear regression.

Dawson, Terence P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS1972

Regional variations in the magnitude of heiligenschein and causal connections, part O

A preliminary quantitative analysis was conducted of four frames exposed by the Apollo 15 metric camera. Two of the frames show the zero-phase surge on maria and the other two show the surge on terrae. It was found that the curves resulting from brightness plotted as a function of phase angle, differ markedly according to which terrain type is involved. The magnitude of the heiligenschein was found to be significantly greater for the maria than for the terrae.

Wildey, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On the proposed triggering of Jovian radio emissions

Calvert (1985) has proposed that a solar type III radio bursts can trigger the onset of certain Jovian hectometer wavelength emissions. It is shown, using the data obtained by the Voyager Planetary Radio Astronomy experiment, that this triggering hypothesis is not supported statistically. Furthermore, the causality of this proposed triggering is questioned because much of the Jovian hectometer emission is due to a quasi-continuous radio source rotating, in lighthouse fashion, with Jupiter. Thus, an observed 'onset' of emission is simply a function of the observer's position in local time around Jupiter.

Desch, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Charting Multidisciplinary Team External Dynamics Using a Systems Thinking Approach

Using the formalism provided by the Systems Thinking approach, the dynamics present when operating multidisciplinary teams are examined in the context of the NASA Langley Research and Technology Group, an R&D organization organized along functional lines. The paper focuses on external dynamics and examines how an organization creates and nurtures the teams and how it disseminates and retains the lessons and expertise created by the multidisciplinary activities. Key variables are selected and the causal relationships between the variables are identified. Five "stories" are told, each of which touches on a different aspect of the dynamics. The Systems Thinking Approach provides recommendations as to interventions that will facilitate the introduction of multidisciplinary teams and that therefore will increase the likelihood of performing successful multidisciplinary developments. These interventions can be carried out either by individual researchers, line management or program management.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois↗

NASA NTRS1988

Knowledge acquisition for autonomous systems

Knowledge-based capabilities for autonomous aerospace systems, such as the NASA Space Station, must encompass conflict-resolution functions comparable to those of human operators, with all elements of the system working toward system goals in a concurrent, asynchronous-but-coordinated fashion. Knowledge extracted from a design database will support robotic systems by furnishing geometric, structural, and causal descriptions required for repair, disassembly, and assembly. The factual knowledge for these databases will be obtained from a master database through a technical management information system, and it will in many cases have to be augmented by domain-specific heuristic knowledge acquired from domain experts.

Lum, Henry↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗

NASA NTRS2004

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗