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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1990

Model test of CCN-cloud albedo climate forcing

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) influence cloud albedo through their effect on the cloud droplet size distribution. A number of studies have evaluated the climatic impact of the CCN-cloud albedo feedback, but all have assumed that cloud distributions, cloud thicknesses, and cloud liquid water contents would remain constant as the climate adjusted. This assumption has been tested using the Livermore version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. The results indicate that there are no significant compensating changes in cloud properties that would counteract the 1.7 percent global albedo increase resulting from a fourfold increase in marine CCN concentration. Furthermore, when ocean surface temperatures are decreased 4 C in a manner broadly consistent with the enhanced cloud albedos, an increase in cloud fraction of 3.5 percent and a reduction in cloud altitude are predicted, leading to a positive feedback from clouds that would imply a climate impact roughly double that calculated from cloud droplet size distribution change alone.

Ghan, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and the Intersection of Climate Forcing and Feedback

The goal of this project has been to understand at the process level how the interaction of aerosols and cloud microphysics may alter the cloud response to climate change from the scale of turbulence to the global scale. Atmospheric aerosols (suspended particulates) have a unique role to play in the climate system. Anthropogenic aerosols may be an air pollution hazard and degrade human health. Their presence also results in the direct scattering or absorption of sunlight, with small net impacts on climate. But aerosols are also a key part of cloud formation, as the locations on which cloud droplets and ice crystals form. Understanding these Aerosol Cloud Interactions (ACI) is a critical uncertainty for climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and affects how well models like E3SM can simulate the past and future. This work aims to understand cloud microphysics as well as the interaction of aerosol forcing and cloud feedback through improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) by looking at their uncertainty in critical environments at the process level. It will also contribute to the development of E3SM. Specific goals include: first, high level analysis of Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) simulations already available from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and E3SM. Second, detailed analysis of recent changes to temperature and the role of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainties in Isoprene Photochemistry and Emissions: Implications for the Oxidative Capacity of Past and Present Atmospheres and for Climate Forcing Agents

Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between -29 and +7, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between -8 and +17, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon first reported in Murray et al. (2014) does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.

methane↗

NASA NTRS2018

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Samset, B. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21stcentury and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions [Slides]

Human emitted GHGs (long lived, cumulative) that trap more heat (IR) and aerosols (short lived, steady) that reflect sunlight (Vis) have altered Earth’s radiation budget and warmed our climate measurably and predictably. Our complex dynamic climate system has trapped 400 ZettaJ (10 21 ) and has many positive feedbacks. Regions are changing at unprecedented rates and crossing thresholds as BAU will lock us into 8.5 W m -2 in 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗

NASA NTRS1994

Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty of climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

In this article, a research strategy for improving the estimates of the clear sky forcing is defined. The strategy encompasses five major, and necessarily coordinated, activities: surface-based observations of aerosol chemical and physical properties and their influence on the radiation field; aircraft-based observations of the same properties; process studies to refine model treatments; satellite observations of aerosol abundance and size distribution; and modeling studies to demonstrate consistency between the observations, to provide guidance for determination of the most important parameters, and to allow extension of the limited set of observations to the global scale. Such a strategy, if aggressively implemented, should allow these effects to be incorporated into climate models in the next several years. A similar strategy for defining the magnitude of the cloudy sky forcing should also be possible, but the less firm understanding of this forcing suggests that research of a more exploratory nature be carried out before undertaking a research strategy of the magnitude recommended for the clear sky forcing.

Penner, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements

Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Climatic forcing of carbon-oxygen isotopic covariance in temperate-region marl lakes

Carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions of lacustrine carbonate from a southeastern Michigan marl lake display linear covariance over a range of 4.0% Peedee belemnite (PDB) in oxygen and 3.9% (PDB) in carbon. Mechanisms of delta 13 C-delta 18 O coupling conventionally attributed to lake closure in arid-region basins are inapplicable to hydrologically open lake systems. Thus, an alternative explanation of isotopic covariance in temperate region dimictic marl lakes is required. We propose that isotopic covariance is a direct record of change in regional climate. In short-residence-time temperate-region lake basins, summer meteoric precipitation is enriched in 18O relative to winter values, and summer organic productivity enriches epilimnic dissolved inorganic carbon in 13C. Thus, climate change toward longer summers and/or shorter winters could result in greater proportions of warm-month meteoric precipitation, longer durations of warm-month productivity, and net long-term enrichment in carbonate 18O and 13C. Isotopic covariance observed in the Michigan marl lake cores is interpreted to reflect postglacial warming from 10 to 3 ka followed by cooler mean annual temperature, a shift toward greater proportions of seasonal summer precipitation, a shortening of the winter season, or some combination of these three factors.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere to Seasonal and Long-Term Climate Forcing

Since the pioneer works of Bjerknes (1966,1969) many studies have been conducted to understand the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These studies have led to a basic understanding of the dynamics of El Nino. Central to the couple dynamics of ENSO is the delayed action oscillator theory (Suarez and Schopf 1988), which successfully describes the cyclic feature of El Nino. While the oscillatory feature of El Nino is reasonably well understood, the irregularity of El Nino, the effect of monsoon on ENSO, and the response of coupled system to the global warming are still under debate. In the present study, we attempt to provide some theoretical understanding of possible impacts of seasonal cycle, monsoon, and climate changes on ENSO using intermediate coupled model.

Kim, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

Ghan, Steven J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides 3-hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2014. Using sub-daily temporal information from the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3), Daymet was further temporally downscaled to 3-hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each sub-daily time step from GSWP3 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2014 Daymet-GSWP3 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating the climate forcing of volcanic aerosols with a simplified interactive model

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Hollowed, Joseph Paul↗

NASA NTRS1993

Radiative climate forcing by the Mount Pinatubo eruption

Radiative flux anomalies derived from the NASA spaceborne Earth Radiation Budget Experiment were used to determine the volcanic radiative forcing that followed the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. They are the first unambiguous, direct measurements of large-scale volcanic forcing. The volcanic aerosols caused a strong cooling effect immediately; the amount of cooling increased through September 1991 as shortwave forcing increased relative to the longwave forcing. The primary effects of the aerosols were a direct increase in albedo over mostly clear areas and both direct and indirect increases in the albedo of cloudy areas.

Minnis, P.↗