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NASA NTRS2022

Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS1981

Effect of cloud-radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation model

Experiments are described which show significant changes in the simulated large-scale dynamical circulation of a global model. Fixed clouds acting as zonally asymmetric radiative heat sources increase the generation of eddy available potential energy (EAPE) and the energy's conversion to eddy kinetic energy. Generation of EAPE by net radiative heating increases by 50% (0.11 W/sq m) for the fixed cloud experiment. The increase caused by the stationary component is much larger (approximately 100%), but it is partially compensated by a decrease caused by the transient component. A substantial increase is found in the variances of the planetary-scale stationary waves and the medium-scale waves of 2.7 day period. Although the sea surface temperatures are prescribed identically in both integrations, the changes in evaporation and precipitation are found to be much larger over the oceans than over the land.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem

A radiative-convective equilibrium model is developed and applied to study cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem. The basic hypothesis is that in the warmer and moister CO2-rich atmosphere, cloud liquid water content will generally be larger than at present, so that cloud optical thickness will be larger too. For clouds other than thin cirrus, the result is to increase the albedo more than to increase the greenhouse effect. Thus the sign of the feedback is negative: cloud optical properties alter in such a way as to reduce the surface and tropospheric warming caused by the addition of CO2. This negative feedback can be substantial. When observational estimates of the temperature dependence of cloud liquid water content are employed in the model, the surface temperature change due to doubling CO2 is reduced by about one half.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS2014

Millimeter- and Submillimeter-Wave Remote Sensing Using Small Satellites

Cloud ice properties and processes play fundamental roles in atmospheric radiation and precipitation. Limited knowledge and poor representation of clouds in global climate models have led to large uncertainties about cloud feedback processes under climate change. Ice clouds have been used as a tuning parameter in the models to force agreement with observations of the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere, and precipitation at the bottom. The lack of ice cloud measurements has left the cloud processes at intermediate altitudes unconstrained. Millimeter (mm) and submillimeter (submm)-wave radiometry is widely recognized for its potential to fill the cloud measurement gap in the middle and upper troposphere. Analyses have shown that channels from 183900 GHz offer good sensitivity to ice cloud scattering and can provide ice water path (IWP) products to an accuracy of 25 by simultaneously retrieving ice particle size (Dme) and IWP. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop a cost-effective, compact mm/submm-wave instrument for cloud observations that can be deployed on future small satellites.This paper presents a conceptual study for a mm/submm-wave instrument for multispectral measurements of ice clouds. It discusses previous work at these frequencies by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the current instrument study, as well as receiver architectures and their anticipated performance. And finally, it describes a microsatellite prototype intended for use with this mm/submm-wave instrument.

small satellites↗

NASA NTRS1989

Climate stability and cloud optical thickness feedbacks

An improved radiative-convective model (RCM) has been developed and used to examine the role of cirrus clouds in the optical thickness feedback mechanism. Low and middle clouds are approximately black bodies for infrared radiative transfer, and so any increase in their optical thickness primarily increases the cloud albedo. Thus, if a climate warming is accompanied by an increase in average atmospheric absolute humidity and hence in average cloud liquid water content, low and middle cloud optical thickness and albedo may increase. The result is a negative feedback on the climate change, tending to reduce the surface temperature increase. Recent research suggests that the optical thickness feedback can depend sensitively on aspects of cirrus which are not well observed or adequately incorporated in typical present-day climate models.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for a Cloud Phase Feedback in the Arctic Climate System

This project was motivated by a hypothesis involving the transition in lower troposphere temperatures across the freezing point of water. Specifically, at temperatures just below to about ten degrees below freezing, Arctic clouds should be in a mixed-phase, with strong influences from secondary ice production (e.g., the Hallett-Mossop process). At temperatures just above freezing, clouds should become entirely deglaciated. We hypothesized that, with multiple years of ARM data, a statistically significant change could be detected in cloud radiative properties and surface radiative fluxes that could be directly attributed to this phase change. Furthermore, in a gradually warming climate, these phase change-related responses in surface radiation would represent a cloud phase feedback as part of Arctic amplification. We designed this research project to coincide with a new ARM Arctic cloud radar product developed by Ed Luke and collaborators at BNL (Luke et al., 2021: PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.2021387118) that explicitly contains SIP cloud properties retrieved from radar data. This research project has successfully concluded after analysis of a much larger North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data sample than originally anticipated, and the results are quite different than originally hypothesized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Importance of Ice Nucleation and Precipitation on Climate With the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales Version 1 (PUMASv1)

Cloud microphysics is critical for weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the cloud microphysical scheme used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and other models. These updates include a new nomenclature for the scheme, now called Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), and the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs). The main science changes include refactoring an ice number limiter and associated changes to ice nucleation, adding vapor deposition onto snow, and introducing an implicit numerical treatment for sedimentation. We also detail the improvements in computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration. We then show the impact of these scheme changes on the (a) mean state climate, (b) cloud feedback response to warming, and (c) aerosol forcing. We find that corrections are needed to the immersion freezing parameterization and that ice nucleation has important impacts on climate. We also find that the revised scheme produces less cloud liquid and ice but that this can be adjusted by changing the loss process for cloud liquid (autoconversion). Furthermore, there are few discernible effects of the PUMAS changes on cloud feedbacks but some reductions in the magnitude of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Small cloud feedback changes appear to be related to the implicit sedimentation scheme, with a number of factors affecting ACIs.

Clouds↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Miller, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Observation of Sea Ice Surface Thermal States Under Cloud Cover

Clouds interfere with the distribution of short-wave and long-wave radiations over sea ice, and thereby strongly affect the surface energy balance in polar regions. To evaluate the overall effects of clouds on climatic feedback processes in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, the challenge is to observe sea ice surface thermal states under both clear sky and cloudy conditions. From laboratory experiments, we show that C-band radar (transparent to clouds) backscatter is very sensitive to the surface temperature of first-year sea ice. The effect of sea ice surface temperature on the magnitude of backscatter change depends on the thermal regimes of sea ice thermodynamic states. For the temperature range above the mirabilite (Na2SO4.10H20) crystallization point (-8.2 C), C-band data show sea ice backscatter changes by 8-10 dB for incident angles from 20 to 35 deg at both horizontal and vertical polarizations. For temperatures below the mirabilite point but above the crystallization point of MgCl2.8H2O (-18.0 C), relatively strong backwater changes between 4-6 dB are observed. These backscatter changes correspond to approximately 8 C change in temperature for both cases. The backscattering mechanism is related to the temperature which determines the thermodynamic distribution of brine volume in the sea ice surface layer. The backscatter is positively correlated to temperature and the process is reversible with thermodynamic variations such as diurnal insolation effects. From two different dates in May 1993 with clear and overcast conditions determined by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), concurrent Earth Resources Satellite 1 (ERS-1) C-band ice observed with increases in backscatter over first-year sea ice, and verified by increases in in-situ sea ice surface temperatures measured at the Collaborative-Interdisciplinary Cryosphere Experiment (C-ICE) site.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The effect of brokenness on cloud-climate sensitivity

A study has been made of the effect of brokenness on the infrared and albedo feedback of clouds in climate models using a simplified treatment of broken cloudiness. It is shown that the individual feedback terms computed using the plane-parallel assumption differ markedly from the computations performed for a regular array of cuboidal clouds. If the cloudiness changes such that clear areas become cloudy but the nature of the broken cloud field remains unchanged, then both the feedbacks are magnified, the infrared more so than the albedo. However, if individual elements in the cloud field are increased horizontally in a constrained area, the feedbacks can be enhanced or diminished depending on the cloud fraction and aspect ratio of the elements. It is also shown that, in the global average, the ratio of the change in outgoing infrared flux to global albedo, as deduced from satellite measurements, will be larger than model simulations using planiform clouds.

Harshvardhan, MR.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Boundary Layer Remote Sensing with Combined Active and Passive Techniques: GPS Radio Occultation and High-Resolution Stereo Imaging (WindCam) Small Satellite Concept

Objective: significant progress in understanding low-cloud boundary layer processes. This is the Single largest uncertainty in climate projections. Radio occultation has unique features suited to boundary layer remote sensing (1) Cloud penetrating (2) Very high vertical resolution (approximately 50m-100m) (3) Sensitivity to thermodynamic variables

stereo camera↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Observations of Aerosols and Clouds from Combined Lidar and Passive Instruments to Improve Radiation Budget and Climate Studies

Current uncertainties in the effects of clouds and aerosols on the Earth radiation budget limit our understanding of the climate system and the potential for global climate change. Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations - Climatologie Etendue des Nuages et des Aerosols (PICASSO-CENA) is a recently approved satellite mission within NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program which will address these uncertainties with a unique suite of active and passive instruments. The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) demonstrated the potential benefits of space lidar for studies of clouds and aerosols. PICASSO-CENA builds on this experience with a payload consisting of a two-wavelength polarization-sensitive lidar, an oxygen A-band spectrometer (ABS), an imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and a wide field camera (WFC). Data from these instruments will be used to measure the vertical distributions of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, as well as optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds which influence the Earth radiation budget. PICASSO-CENA will be flown in formation with the PM satellite of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide a comprehensive suite of coincident measurements of atmospheric state, aerosol and cloud optical properties, and radiative fluxes. The mission will address critical uncertainties iin the direct radiative forcing of aerosols and clouds as well as aerosol influences on cloud radiative properties and cloud-climate radiation feedbacks. PICASSO-CENA is planned for a three year mission, with a launch in early 2003. PICASSO-CENA is being developed within the framework of a collaboration between NASA and CNES.

Winker, David M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and the Intersection of Climate Forcing and Feedback

The goal of this project has been to understand at the process level how the interaction of aerosols and cloud microphysics may alter the cloud response to climate change from the scale of turbulence to the global scale. Atmospheric aerosols (suspended particulates) have a unique role to play in the climate system. Anthropogenic aerosols may be an air pollution hazard and degrade human health. Their presence also results in the direct scattering or absorption of sunlight, with small net impacts on climate. But aerosols are also a key part of cloud formation, as the locations on which cloud droplets and ice crystals form. Understanding these Aerosol Cloud Interactions (ACI) is a critical uncertainty for climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and affects how well models like E3SM can simulate the past and future. This work aims to understand cloud microphysics as well as the interaction of aerosol forcing and cloud feedback through improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) by looking at their uncertainty in critical environments at the process level. It will also contribute to the development of E3SM. Specific goals include: first, high level analysis of Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) simulations already available from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and E3SM. Second, detailed analysis of recent changes to temperature and the role of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Climate Quality Broadband and Narrowband Solar Reflected Radiance Calibration Between Sensors in Orbit

vAs the potential impacts of global climate change become more clear [1], the need to determine the accuracy of climate prediction over decade-to-century time scales has become an urgent and critical challenge. The most critical tests of climate model predictions will occur using observations of decadal changes in climate forcing, response, and feedback variables. Many of these key climate variables are observed by remotely sensing the global distribution of reflected solar spectral and broadband radiance. These "reflected solar" variables include aerosols, clouds, radiative fluxes, snow, ice, vegetation, ocean color, and land cover. Achieving sufficient satellite instrument accuracy, stability, and overlap to rigorously observe decadal change signals has proven very difficult in most cases and has not yet been achieved in others [2]. One of the earliest efforts to make climate quality observations was for Earth Radiation Budget: Nimbus 6/7 in the late 1970s, ERBE in the 1980s/90s, and CERES in 2000s are examples of the most complete global records. The recent CERES data products have carried out the most extensive intercomparisons because if the need to merge data from up to 11 instruments (CERES, MODIS, geostationary imagers) on 7 spacecraft (Terra, Aqua, and 5 geostationary) for any given month. In order to achieve climate calibration for cloud feedbacks, the radiative effect of clear-sky, all-sky, and cloud radiative effect must all be made with very high stability and accuracy. For shortwave solar reflected flux, even the 1% CERES broadband absolute accuracy (1-sigma confidence bound) is not sufficient to allow gaps in the radiation record for decadal climate change. Typical absolute accuracy for the best narrowband sensors like SeaWiFS, MISR, and MODIS range from 2 to 4% (1-sigma). IPCC greenhouse gas radiative forcing is approx. 0.6 W/sq m per decade or 0.6% of the global mean shortwave reflected flux, so that a 50% cloud feedback would change the global reflected flux by approx. 0.3 W/sq m or 0.3% per decade in broadband SW calibration change. Recent results comparing CERES reflected flux changes with MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS narrowband changes concluded that only SeaWiFS and CERES were approaching sufficient stability in calibration for decadal climate change [3]. Results using deep convective clouds in the optically thick limit as a stability target may prove very effective for improving past data sets like ISCCP. Results for intercalibration of geostationary imagers to CERES using an entire month of regional nearly coincident data demonstrates new approaches to constraining the calibration of current geostationary imagers. The new Decadal Survey Mission CLARREO is examining future approaches to a "NIST-in-Orbit" approach of very high absolute accuracy reference radiometers that cover the full solar and infrared spectrum at high spectral resolution but at low spatial resolution. Sampling studies have shown that a precessing CLARREO mission could calibrate other geo and leo reflected solar radiation and thermal infrared sensors.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

Chen, Yonghua↗

NASA NTRS1990

Model test of CCN-cloud albedo climate forcing

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) influence cloud albedo through their effect on the cloud droplet size distribution. A number of studies have evaluated the climatic impact of the CCN-cloud albedo feedback, but all have assumed that cloud distributions, cloud thicknesses, and cloud liquid water contents would remain constant as the climate adjusted. This assumption has been tested using the Livermore version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. The results indicate that there are no significant compensating changes in cloud properties that would counteract the 1.7 percent global albedo increase resulting from a fourfold increase in marine CCN concentration. Furthermore, when ocean surface temperatures are decreased 4 C in a manner broadly consistent with the enhanced cloud albedos, an increase in cloud fraction of 3.5 percent and a reduction in cloud altitude are predicted, leading to a positive feedback from clouds that would imply a climate impact roughly double that calculated from cloud droplet size distribution change alone.

Ghan, S. J.↗