Suboptimal filtering. Part 2 - Compensation for modeling errors in orbit determination problems Final report
Compensation for dynamic and measurement model errors in real time orbit determination systems
Bailie, A. E.↗
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System design of the annular suspension and pointing system /ASPS/
This paper presents the control system design for the Annular Suspension and Pointing System. Actuator sizing and configuration of the system are explained, and the control laws developed for linearizing and compensating the magnetic bearings, roll induction motor and gimbal torquers are given. Decoupling, feedforward and error compensation for the vernier and gimbal controllers is developed. The algorithm for computing the strapdown attitude reference is derived, and the allowable sampling rates, time delays and quantization of control signals are specified.
Cunningham, D. C.↗
Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models
Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Harmonic drive gear error: Characterization and compensation for precision pointing and tracking
Imperfections and geometry effects in harmonic drive gear reducers cause a cyclic gear error, which at a systems level, results in high frequency torque fluctuations. To address this problem, gear error testing was performed on a wide variety of sizes and types of harmonic drives. It was found that although all harmonic drives exhibit a significant first harmonic, higher harmonics varied greatly with each unit. From life tests, small changes were found in harmonic content, phase shift, and error magnitude (on the order of .008 deg peak-to-peak maximum) occurred for drives with many millions of degrees of output travel. Temperature variations also influenced gear error. Over a spread of approximately 56 C (100 F), the error varied in magnitude approximately 20 percent but changes in a repeatable and predictable manner. Concentricity and parallelness tests of harmonic drive parts resulted in showing alignment influence gear error amplitude. Tests on dedoidaled harmonic drives showed little effect on gear error; surprisingly, in one case for a small drive, gear error actually improved. Electronic compensation of gear error in harmonic drives was shown to be substantially effective for units that are first harmonic dominant.
Nye, Ted W.↗
A FMCW Radar Ranging Device for the Teleoperator Maneuvering System
A frequency-modulated continuous wave radar system is under development in the Communications Systems Branch of the Information and Electronic Systems Laboratory at Marshall Space Flight Center. The radar unit is being designed for use on the teleoperator maneuvering system. Its function is to provide millimeter-level accuracy in range and range rate measurements out to a range of thirty meters. This will facilitate soft docking with accuracy. This report is an updating of previous developments reported on this system. An innovation in the system is the utilization of a standard reference signal generated by shunting a portion of the radar energy into a shorted coaxial delay line. The regular radar target return signal is constantly compared with the reference signal to provide internal error compensation. Within a five meter range, a limit imposed by present laboratory dimensions, the radar system exhibits reliable accuracy with range error less than 0.2%.
Mcdonald, M. W.↗
Flight Control System Design with Rate Saturating Actuators
Actuator rate saturation is an important factor adversely affecting the stability and performance of aircraft flight control systems. It has been identified as a catalyst in pilot-induced oscillations, some of which have been catastrophic. A simple design technique is described that utilizes software rate limiters to improve the performance of control systems operating in the presence of actuator rate saturation. As described, the technique requires control effectors to be ganged such that any effector is driven by only a single compensated error signal. Using an analysis of the steady-state behavior of the system, requirements are placed upon the type of the loop transmissions and compensators in the proposed technique. Application of the technique to the design of a multi-input/multi-output, lateral-directional control system for a simple model of a high-performance fighter is demonstrated as are the stability and performance improvements that can accrue with the technique.
Hess, R. A.↗
Twin-capacitive shaft angle encoder with analog output signal
A precision capacitive shaft encoder providing a dc signal corresponding to the angular position of a shaft is described. Two variable capacitances are coupled in tandem by a rotatable shaft. Each capacitor has a capacitance that varies linearly with a change in the angular position of the shaft. The sum of the two capacitances is always constant for any angular position of the shaft. Each capacitance is alternately coupled to a reference dc voltage and a discharge circuit. The capacitances are electrically coupled in series and the charge periodically acquired at the junction of the capacitance is a function of the position of the shaft. An error-compensating voltage is imposed on the junction when the capacitances are coupled to the reference voltages. The junction is coupled to sample-and-hold apparatus provided with a error-correcting circuit.
Hruby, R. J.↗
Technique for temperature compensation of eddy-current proximity probes
Eddy-current proximity probes are used in turbomachinery evaluation testing and operation to measure distances, primarily vibration, deflection, or displacment of shafts, bearings and seals. Measurements of steady-state conditions made with standard eddy-current proximity probes are susceptible to error caused by temperature variations during normal operation of the component under investigation. Errors resulting from temperature effects for the specific probes used in this study were approximately 1.016 x 10 to the -3 mm/deg C over the temperature range of -252 to 100 C. This report examines temperature caused changes on the eddy-current proximity probe measurement system, establishes their origin, and discusses what may be done to minimize their effect on the output signal. In addition, recommendations are made for the installation and operation of the electronic components associated with an eddy-current proximity probe. Several techniques are described that provide active on-line error compensation for over 95 percent of the temperature effects.
Masters, Robert M.↗
Evaluating the Conservation of Energy Variables in Simulations of Deep Moist Convection
Abstract It is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE − IB and MSE + KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy ( B ) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large-eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE − IB and MSE + KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE − IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE − IB and MSE + KE perform comparably in squall-line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE − IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE − IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE − IB or MSE + KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.
Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.
surface energy↗
Expert‐in‐the‐loop design of integral nuclear data experiments
Abstract Nuclear data are fundamental inputs to radiation transport codes used for reactor design and criticality safety. The design of experiments to reduce nuclear data uncertainty has been a challenge for many years, but advances in the sensitivity calculations of radiation transport codes within the last two decades have made optimal experimental design possible. The design of integral nuclear experiments poses numerous challenges not emphasized in classical optimal design, in particular, constrained design spaces (in both a statistical and engineering sense), severely under‐determined systems, and optimality uncertainty. We present a design pipeline to optimize critical experiments that uses constrained Bayesian optimization within an iterative expert‐in‐the‐loop framework. We show a successfully completed experiment campaign designed with this framework that involved two critical configurations and multiple measurements that targeted compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Preliminary verification of the MCNP perturbation and fixed-source tally sensitivity tools
Integral benchmark experiments are vital in the adjustment and validation of the nuclear data that govern predictive simulations across the nuclear community. The nuclear data sensitivity capabilities of the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ®) transport code are currently limited; however, expanding sensitivity capabilities will allow benchmark experiments to be designed to resolve compensating errors and adjust nuclear data where previously prohibitively difficult. This paper provides details of a preliminary verification for the use of (i.) the recently revised perturbation and (ii.) developmental fixed-source sensitivity tools within MCNP to calculate sensitivities of tallied responses (such as current integrated over a surface, F1, and flux averaged over a cell, F4) to nuclear data in fixed-source simulations. Energy-binned and energy-integrated sensitivities calculated with these tools are compared against sensitivities calculated using a central-difference approximation. Here, the verification is completed for four configurations of a benchmarked system using a 4.5-kg plutonium sphere surrounded by varying amounts of copper and/or polyethylene. The results show that sensitivities calculated with the perturbation and fixed-source sensitivity tools agree with the central-difference-based approach.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling
Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information
A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Habit–Dependent Vapor Growth Modulates Arctic Supercooled Water Occurrence
We present an analysis of long-term data collected at Utqiagvik, Alaska, to explore the impacts of cloud processes on the probability of finding supercooled water given cloud temperature, P(L|T), in the topmost unseeded liquid-bearing layers. P(L|T) has local minima at temperatures around –6°C and –15°C. Simulations using habit-evolving ice microphysics models suggest that these minima are the result of efficient vapor growth by non-isometric habits found at these temperatures. Here, we conclude that habit-dependent vapor growth of ice crystals modulates the macrophysical occurrence of supercooled water in polar clouds, the effect of which should be included in model parametrizations to avoid biases and/or error compensation. Our methodology is adaptable for spherical ice treatments implemented in models (example parametrizations provided), amenable for use with satellite measurements to give global impartial observational targets for model evaluations, and may allow empirical characterization of bulk responses to seeding and possibly secondary ice effects.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
How can a diverse set of integral and semi-integral measurements inform identification of discrepant nuclear data?
Nuclear data are used for a variety of applications, including criticality safety, reactor performance, and material safeguards. Despite the breadth of use-cases, the effective neutron multiplication factor, keff, of ICSBEP critical assemblies are primarily used for nuclear data validation; these are sensitive to specific energy regions and nuclides and are unable to uniquely constrain nuclear data. As a consequence, general-purpose nuclear data libraries, such as ENDF/B-VIII.0, may have deficiencies that, while not apparent in criticality applications, negatively impact other applications, such as non-destructive analysis of special nuclear material and neutron diagnosed subcritical experiments. Recent work by the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project developed a machine learning tool, RAFIEKI, which uses random forests and the SHAP metric to determine which nuclear data contribute most to predicted bias between measured and simulated responses (e.g. keff). This paper contrasts RAFIEKI analysis applied to keff only against RAFIEKI analysis with keff paired with either LLNL pulsed sphere measurements or subcritical benchmarks. Two examples show that a) including pulsed sphere measurements substantially increases 9Be nuclear data importance to bias between 2 and 15 MeV, and b) including subcritical benchmarks has the potential for disentangling compensating errors between 240Pu (n,el) and (n,il) cross-sections between 0.1 and 10 MeV. These results show that RAFIEKI analysis applied to response sets that include, but go beyond, keff can aid nuclear data evaluators in identifying issues in nuclear data.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters
Accurately predicting the criticality of an experiment before interacting with the experimental components is very important for criticality safety. Radiation transport software can be utilized to calculate the effective neutron multiplication factor of a nuclear system. Because of the integral nature of the effective neutron multiplication factor, the value calculated contains various sources of nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis and data assimilation technique presented in this paper exhibit one possible method of identifying and reducing the effective neutron multiplication factor nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The results presented in this work show that it is possible to use relative sensitivity coefficients of the prompt neutron decay constant and the effective delayed neutron fraction to 239 Pu nuclear data to reduce nuclear-data induced uncertainties in the effective neutron multiplication factor. This work has been utilized by members of the Los Alamos National Laboratory project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) for optimally designing a new experiment, which will be used to reduce compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Validation of Jezebel Reactivity Coefficients and Sensitivity Analysis
Nuclear data validation is often performed today using criticality measurements. The gold standard for criticality measurements is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP). The validation specifically focuses on the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$). $K_{eff}$ is a relatively easy parameter to infer and has reduced uncertainty due to being at or above critical. However, while $k_{eff}$ is the most documented parameter and its uncertainties and sensitivities have been evaluated in great detail, it cannot be used as a standalone metric to determine inaccuracies in nuclear data (e.g., cross section data, PFNS, nu), which is based on theory, physics, and differential measurements. The Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) project aims to identify compensating errors in specific isotope nuclear data by optimally designing experiments that are, or are not sensitive to a suite of measurement parameters beyond $k_{eff}$. By identifying parameters that are sensitive to each other, oppositely sensitive, or have substantial magnitude differences in sensitivity, experiments can be designed to constrain questionable nuclear data. One sensitivity that is of particular interest to this project includes the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients. Reactivity coefficients compare reactivity, which is related to $k_{eff}$ at two different states therefore being sensitive to small changes in the system. The most common type of reactivity coefficient measurements is comparison to void for a small sample within the assembly. It is key that the sample sizes are small enough to not affect the flux of the full system. Reactivity coefficients were evaluated for many early experiments to better understand transport corrected cross sections. In fact, ICSBEP includes reactivity coefficient results as “Supplemental Measurements” in appendices for a handful of older benchmarks. One of those benchmarks is Jezebel, the bare Pu critical assembly. This paper compares new simulations of reactivity coefficients for Jezebel, and explores the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients to small changes in nuclear data.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗