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DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Insider Risk Threat to the Internet of Things (IoT)

Recent technological advancement has created a growing convergence of innovation. From machine learning to ubiquitous computing to wireless networks and automation, the world is seeing new technology increasingly capable of connecting with each other. Devices and systems use open communications networks to interact, process information, and react. This is called the Internet of Things (IoT) and is comprised of physical devices that exchange data over networks, creating revolutionary possibilities. The most common way most people interact with an IoT is through ‘smart home’ products like Amazon’s Alexa, which use microphones, speakers, and phones to control a variety of devices, from lights and thermostats, to cameras, to appliances and vacuum cleaners. But the open nature of IoT networks—necessary for their ability to communicate and operate—also introduces privacy and security concerns. At a personal level, this might mean a hack into a home to steal private information, but when applied in broader industries like healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, or the military, this vulnerability can have serious consequences. As IoT usage and interconnectivity increases, so too does the susceptibility to malicious actors. And the entire system is only as secure as its least secure member. This creates particular risk and vulnerability to radiological material industries, as a competent insider adversary could utilize the IoT to potentially steal or access classified or sensitive information about employees, sites, or systems; or simply sabotage security or maintenance from a more remote—and less secure—device. The IoT relies on a secure network across the entire system, especially in transport which may lack the security of more permanent locations; if one device fails, it can create a ripple effect and an insider threat may seek to exploit that connectivity. While IoT benefits drive increased innovation and usage, there are also vulnerabilities an insider threat could exploit; this risk of an IoT to radiological material must be addressed in any mitigation effort.

Kinney, Justin↗

NASA NTRS2017

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

IV&V↗

NASA NTRS2017

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

Fault management↗

DOE OSTI2023

Finding middle ground: Flow regimes designed for salmon and energy value

In regulated rivers, shaping seasonal flows to recover species at risk depends on understanding when to expect conflicts with competing water users and when their interests are aligned. Multi-objective optimization can be used to reveal such conflicts and commonalities. When species are involved, multi-objective optimization is challenged by the need to simulate complex species responses to flow regimes. Previously, we addressed that challenge by developing a simplified salmon model (Quantus) that defines cohorts of salmon by the river section and time in which they were spawned. Salmon in these space-time cohorts are tracked from the time redds (nests) are constructed until the cohort exits the tributary en route to the ocean. In this study, we modeled seasonal patterns in energy value and developed a Pareto-optimal frontier of seasonal flow patterns to maximize in-river salmon survival and hydropower value. Candidate flow regimes were characterized by two pulse flows varying in magnitude, timing, and duration and constrained by a total annual flow near the historical median. Our analysis revealed times when economic and salmon objectives were aligned and times when they differed. Pulse flows that favored higher energy value were timed to meet demand during extreme temperatures. Both salmon and hydropower objectives produced optimal flow regimes with pulse flows in early summer, but only solutions favoring hydropower value included high flows in mid-winter. Solutions favoring higher age-0 salmon survival provided an extended pulse flow in late winter/early spring, which suggests that access to productive floodplain habitat allowed faster growth and earlier out-migration and reduced the need for higher temperature-moderating flows later in spring. Minimum flows were also higher among solutions favoring salmon over energy. The tools used to produce these results can help to design simplified seasonal flow regimes by revealing compromise solutions that satisfy both fish and energy producers and highlighting when potential conflicts are likely.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Systems Engineering Process for Human Support Technology Development

Systems engineering is designing and optimizing systems. This paper reviews the systems engineering process and indicates how it can be applied in the development of advanced human support systems. Systems engineering develops the performance requirements, subsystem specifications, and detailed designs needed to construct a desired system. Systems design is difficult, requiring both art and science and balancing human and technical considerations. The essential systems engineering activity is trading off and compromising between competing objectives such as performance and cost, schedule and risk. Systems engineering is not a complete independent process. It usually supports a system development project. This review emphasizes the NASA project management process as described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 7120.5B. The process is a top down phased approach that includes the most fundamental activities of systems engineering - requirements definition, systems analysis, and design. NPR 7120.5B also requires projects to perform the engineering analyses needed to ensure that the system will operate correctly with regard to reliability, safety, risk, cost, and human factors. We review the system development project process, the standard systems engineering design methodology, and some of the specialized systems analysis techniques. We will discuss how they could apply to advanced human support systems development. The purpose of advanced systems development is not directly to supply human space flight hardware, but rather to provide superior candidate systems that will be selected for implementation by future missions. The most direct application of systems engineering is in guiding the development of prototype and flight experiment hardware. However, anticipatory systems engineering of possible future flight systems would be useful in identifying the most promising development projects.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

Mahfouz, Amr↗

NASA NTRS2015

Directed Research in Bone Discipline: Refining Previous Research Observations for Space Medicine

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mass density, as a sole index, is an insufficient surrogate for fracture; Clinical Practice Guidelines using bone mass density (both World Health Organization and FRAX) are not specific for complicated subjects such as young, healthy persons following prolonged exposure to skeletal unloading (i.e. an attribute of spaceflight); Research data suggest that spaceflight induces changes to astronaut bones that could be profound, possibly irreversible and unlike age-related bone loss on Earth.; There is a need to objectively assess factors across human physiology that are also influenced by spaceflight (e.g., muscle) that contribute to fracture risk. Some of these objective assessments may require innovative technologies, analyses and modeling.; Astronauts are also exposed to novel situations that may overload their bones highlighting a need integrate biomechanics of physical activities into risk assessments.; As we accumulate data, which reflects the biomechanical competence of bone under specific mechanically-loaded scenarios (even activities of daily living), BONE expects Bone Fracture Module to be more sensitive and/or have less uncertainty in its assessments of fracture probability.; Fracture probability drives the requirement for countermeasures. Level of evidence will unlikely be obtained; hence, the Bone Research and Clinical Advisory Panel (like a Data Safety Monitoring Board) will provide the recommendations.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Contribution of carbon pricing to meeting a mid-century net zero target

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security

Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares Project Technology Assessment: Approach and Tools

Technology assessments provide a status of the development maturity of specific technologies. Along with benefit analysis, the risks the project assumes can be quantified. Normally due to budget constraints, the competing technologies are prioritized and decisions are made which ones to fund. A detailed technology development plan is produced for the selected technologies to provide a roadmap to reach the desired maturity by the project s critical design review. Technology assessments can be conducted for both technology only tasks or for product development programs. This paper is primarily biased toward the product development programs. The paper discusses the Ares Project s approach to technology assessment. System benefit analysis, risk assessment, technology prioritization, and technology readiness assessment are addressed. A description of the technology readiness level tool being used is provided.

Hueter, Uwe↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. The repository has a firm structure, initial collection of data, and an interface established for informational queries, with plans for integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV, enabling support and accessibility across the Agency. The development of an improved workflow process for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance is currently underway.

Software Verification & Validation↗

NASA NTRS2023

Intravenous Fluid Generation Mini (IVGEN Mini) Summary and Related Research

This paper assists the ongoing effort to support NASA Glenn’s mission and its Human Research Program (HRP) core competency by investigating a technology demonstration to mitigate human health and performance risks during space exploration. Crew health and performance are critical to successful human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Four hundred forty-two medical conditions have been identified and may present and require treatment during long-duration space exploration missions. One hundred fifteen out of four hundred forty-two identified medical conditions would require medical fluid treatment, generating a need for an on-demand or continuous supply of medical fluid. Intravenous Fluid Generation Mini (IVGEN Mini) is a technology demonstration designed to demonstrate a water purification and pharmaceutical mixing system that can make intravenous (IV) fluid in microgravity and builds on the success of the original Intravenous Fluid Generation for Exploration Missions (IVGEN) experiment, which flew on the ISS in March 2010. IVGEN Mini seeks to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and the overall function of the original IVGEN experiment to reduce the dependence of a needed medical consumable and streamline the size of the device and process to generate IV fluid IVGEN Mini is funded by the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) directorate via the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) as a part of their mission to advance exploration medical technologies to benefit the overall health and safety of crews for beyond low Earth orbit space missions. This paper discusses a collection of related research topics such as microgravity fluid mixing and studying past efforts of IV fluid usage in extreme environments to aid IVGEN Mini project scientists in developing the IVGEN Mini technology.

iv generation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Parts Risk and Reliability User and Application Guide

All COTS parts are not created equal. Because they are not created equal, the notion that one can force the commercial industry to follow a set of military specifications and standards, along with the certifications, audits and qualification commitments that go with them, is unrealistic for the sale of a few parts. The part technologies that are Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) certified or Military Specification (MS) qualified, are several generations behind the state-of-the-art high-performance parts that are required for the compact, higher performing systems for the next generation of spacecraft and instruments. The majority of the part suppliers are focused on the portion of the market that is producing high-tech commercial products and systems. To that end, in order to compete in the high performance and leading edge advanced technological systems, an alternative approach to risk assessment and reliability prediction must be considered.

White, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

NASA NTRS2010

Progress in Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Using a Broadband LIDAR

Innovative active system using advanced source technology development will enable precise daytime or nighttime measurements of column CO2. Directly responds to NRC DS ASCENDS mission. Number of lasers is reduced compared to competing technologies which reduces the complexity of sensor and thus the cost and risk of failure. Knowledge gained from previously developed passive sensor decreases the risk and cost of the present lidar system development. The instrument can play a significant role as an intercomparison instrument for OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) if it is rebuilt and launched as well as other laser based instruments under development for participation in ASCENDS. It can play a role as an airborne instrument in its own right in addressing the problems of scale arising from differences between point observations by the existing ground based CO2 network and wider area measurements obtained by satellites. Developed 2.0 micron broadband system as well and will compare performance of both systems to choose optimal approach for ASCENDS. Have begun development of approach that uses array detectors instead of APD. This approach will have lower noise than APD and may simplify design of the detector optical train.

Heaps, William S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ablative TPS Sustainment to Enable NASA's Future Robotic Missions

Since 1960s NASA’s missions have spanned the entire solar system, from Apollo to Jupiter entry ~50 km/s. Ablative TPS has been critical to the success. NASA’s missions will continue to be innovative, one-of-a kind and at the same time, competed mission selection process requires technology readiness to be high to ensure cost and risks are better understood. If missions require new TPS technology, it takes a decade and significant resources to develop them. Competitive proposal tend to use existing ablative TPS. Sustainability of ablative TPS is then essential. This talk will focus on approaches to address the future challenges.

Ethiraj Venkatapathy↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing Compelling and Science-Focused Mission Concepts for NASA Competed Mission Proposals

Since the mid 1990s, NASA has used a competitive selection process to initiate new mission concepts. These competed missions are motivated by high-value science with low implementation and cost risks. Selectable mission concepts require highly focused science approaches—delivering high quality science “on a budget.” Prospective Principal Investigators (PIs) need to convince NASA that the science they are proposing is both compelling and has high programmatic value. Unfortunately, many of these PIs are not trained in the communication skills needed for “selling” a mission concept to stakeholders. This requires a proposal that presents an investigation in an accessible, relatable, authentic, and believable way. It is the onus of the proposing PI to convince NASA of the value of their particular science concept in a competitive environment, addressing any pre-conceived notions reviewers might have about the concept’s value, complexities, urgency, and other impediments to understanding.The importance of this can be seen in the NASA-sponsored PI Launchpad (Nov 2019 & Jun 2021)1 which was designed to help early career scientists understand the skills, methods, processes, and resources needed to develop compelling science mission concepts; as well as in JPL’s update to their concept maturity model (Jan 2020) which included the addition of Story and Strategy dimensions. This paper provides guidance to assist prospective PIs in developing compelling, science-focused mission concepts. It will provide direction for communicating concepts more clearly to make science objectives more relatable to both reviewers and a broader audience, improving the probability of selection.

Ziemer, John↗