Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “competing risks”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Hypervelocity Impact Performance of Open Cell Foam Core Sandwich Panel Structures

Open cell metallic foam core sandwich panel structures are of interest for application in spacecraft micrometeoroid and orbital debris shields due to their novel form and advantageous structural and thermal performance. Repeated shocking as a result of secondary impacts upon individual foam ligaments during the penetration process acts to raise the thermal state of impacting projectiles ; resulting in fragmentation, melting, and vaporization at lower velocities than with traditional shielding configurations (e.g. Whipple shield). In order to characterize the protective capability of these structures, an extensive experimental campaign was performed by the Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Technology Facility, the results of which are reported in this paper. Although not capable of competing against the protection levels achievable with leading heavy shields in use on modern high-risk vehicles (i.e. International Space Station modules), metallic foam core sandwich panels are shown to provide a substantial improvement over comparable structural panels and traditional low weight shielding alternatives such as honeycomb sandwich panels and metallic Whipple shields. A ballistic limit equation, generalized in terms of panel geometry, is derived and presented in a form suitable for application in risk assessment codes.

Ryan, S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗
NASA NTRS2007

TBCC Fan Stage Operability and Performance

NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program is investigating turbine-based propulsion systems for access to space because it provides the potential for aircraft-like, space-launch operations that may significantly reduce launch costs and improve safety. Studies performed under NASA s NGLT and the NASP High Speed Propulsion Assessment (HiSPA) program indicated a variable cycle turbofan/ramjet was the best configuration to satisfy access-to-space mission requirements because this configuration maximizes the engine thrust-to-weight ratio while minimizing frontal area. To this end, NASA and GE teamed to design a Mach 4 variable cycle turbofan/ramjet engine for access to space. To enable the wide operating range of a Mach 4+ variable cycle turbofan ramjet required the development of a unique fan stage design capable of multi-point operation to accommodate variations in bypass ratio (10X), fan speed (7X), inlet mass flow (3.5X), inlet pressure (8X), and inlet temperature (3X). The primary goal of the fan stage was to provide a high pressure ratio level with good efficiency at takeoff through the mid range of engine operation, while avoiding stall and losses at the higher flight Mach numbers, without the use of variable inlet guide vanes. Overall fan performance and operability therefore requires major consideration, as competing goals at different operating points and aeromechanical issues become major drivers in the design. To mitigate risk of meeting the unique design requirements for the fan stage, NASA and GE teamed to design and build a 57% engine scaled fan stage to be tested in NASA s transonic compressor facility. The objectives of this test are to assess the aerodynamic and aero mechanic performance and operability characteristics of the fan stage over the entire range of engine operation including: 1) sea level static take-off, 2) transition over large swings in fan bypass ratio, 3) transition from turbofan to ramjet, and 4) fan windmilling operation at high Mach flight conditions. In addition, the fan stage design was validated by performing pre-test CFD analysis using both GE proprietary and NASA s APNASA codes. Herein we will discuss 1) the fan stage design, 2) the experiment including the unique facility and instrumentation, and 3) the comparison of pre-test CFD analysis to initial aerodynamic test results for the baseline fan stage configuration. Measurements and pre-test analysis will be compared at 37%, 50%, 80%, 90%, and 100% of design speed to assess the ability of state-of-the-art design and analysis tools to meet the fan stage performance and operability requirements for turbine based propulsion for access to space.

Suder, Kenneth L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Second European Service Module (ESM-2) Evolutions, Production and Challenges

This paper presents an overview of the Second European Service Module (ESM-2), the second in a series of European Service Modules produced as part of the Barter agreement between NASA and ESA for the Orion Program. The European Industrial consortium is led by the ESA prime contractor Airbus Defence and Space in Bremen. ESA and Airbus signed the ESM-2 contract on 16 February 2017, for this key element of the Orion Exploration Mission 2 (EM-2). EM-2 is the first crewed mission for Orion and will take astronauts farther into the solar system than humanity has ever travelled. EM-2 will also be a historic mission for Europe, as the ESM-2 will be the first European spacecraft to be part of a human transportation system carrying humans beyond low Earth orbit. ESM-2 is mainly a recurring production following ESM-1. Nevertheless, there are a number of important changes being implemented, for example, to incorporate upgrades to further enhance safety and reliability. The challenging delivery schedule for ESM-2 has driven the need to commence manufacturing prior to completion of the qualification on ESM-1. In addition, some requirement deviations and non-compliances approved for ESM-1 have resulted in modifications for ESM-2. In order to manage the competing constraints effectively, the ESM-2 Team has put in place a number of novel approaches to manage schedule, risk, and technical changes. Airbus has set up multi-functional teams according to an approach known as "Major Spacecraft Deliveries" consisting of quality assurance, engineering and procurement. The risk of starting manufacturing prior to qualification is managed through a special risk share agreement. This agreement necessitates rigorous risk reviews across the board for all manufacturing, assembly, integration and test milestones. The ESM-2 changes are managed by Configuration Management, but Airbus has also introduced the Technical Baseline Matrix to provide a transparent top-level overview of the changes from ESM-1 to ESM-2. The tool provides the basis for ESM-2 design and development needs, decisions, as well as the input for the Orion EM-2 Critical Design Review (CDR). The main technical evolutions, status of the production and the novel management approaches for ESM-2 are presented and discussed in the paper.

Orion European Service Module Programme↗
NASA NTRS2006

Generalized Separation of an Object Jettisoned from the ISS

The International Space Station (ISS) Program faces unprecedented logistics challenges in both upmass and downmass. Some items employed on the ISS exterior present significant technical issues for a controlled de-orbit on either the shuttle or an expendable supply vehicle. Such manifest problems arise due to structural degradation, insufficient containment of hazardous pressures or contents, excessive size, or some combination of all of these factors. In addition, the mounting hardware and other flight service equipment to manifest the returned equipment must itself be launched, competing with other upmass. EVA techniques and equipment to successfully contain and secure such problematic equipment result in numerous significant risks to the spacewalking crews and cost and schedule risks to the program. The ISS Program office has therefore developed a policy that advises the jettison of the most problematic objects. Such jettisoned items join a small family of nearly co-planar orbital debris objects that threaten the ISS on several timescales, besides threatening all satellites with perigee below the ISS orbit and the general human population on Earth. This analysis addresses the governing physics and the ensuing risks when an object is jettisoned. It is shown that there are four time domains which must be considered, each with its own inherent problems, and that a ballistic solution is usually possible that satsfies all constraints in all domains.

Bacon, Jack↗
NASA NTRS2018

Potential Advantages of Conducting Short Duration Visits to the Martian Surface

Recent NASA concepts for human missions to Mars, including the Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on the conduct of missions with long duration stays on the Martian surface. The decision to focus on long duration missions (typically to a single site) is driven by a desire to increase the perceived sustainability of the human Mars campaign, predicated on the assumption that sustainability is best achieved by maximizing the level of activity on the surface, providing for continuous growth in operations, and promoting pioneering of Mars. However, executing a series of long duration missions to a single site is not the only option for human exploration of Mars that has been proposed. Other architectures have been evaluated that focus on missions with short duration surface stays, with each mission visiting a separate site on the surface. This type of architecture is less efficient in that elements are not typically reused from one mission to the next but requires a far less complex surface architecture. There are potentially valid arguments to be made that a short duration, multiple site approach could result in different types of advantages when compared to the long duration, single site approach to Mars exploration, particularly for initial human missions to Mars. These arguments revolve around four areas: Achieved Value, Risk Mitigation, Developmental Affordability, and Operational Affordability & Flexibility. The question of Achieved Value relates to the prioritization of goals for Martian exploration. As discussed, goals related to pioneering and expanding human presence are often referenced as justifications for the long duration approach. However, there are other competing goals, including science and exploration. While there is not a clear consensus among planetary scientists, many have argued that the value of being able to visit multiple sites could outweigh the value of continually visiting a single site. Risk Mitigation is a major concern for initial human missions to Mars. There are a number of hazards related to operating on the Martian surface that are not well characterized. It may be desirable to conduct a series of short duration missions to better understand the nature of these risks prior to committing to a long duration mission. Developmental Affordability relates to the ability of NASA and its partners to develop and deploy the proposed architecture. Any human missions to Mars will be among the most complex endeavors ever undertaken. The capabilities that must be developed to enable any human Mars missions are extremely challenging. The total design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) budget required to develop just the essential capabilities alone will be substantial. If additional surface capabilities are required to support long duration surface stays, the development effort could be unaffordable. Operational Affordability & Flexibility relates to the continued costs to execute the Mars campaign. Long duration missions, even with some amount of in-situ resource utilization, require a significant level of resupply for every mission. This requires additional launches and in-space transportation assets, increasing the operational complexity and total operational cost. This paper will explore each of the four potential advantages of short duration missions in detail. The authors will present comparisons between proposed long duration and short duration architectures through an evaluation of relevant performance, cost, and risk metrics.

Stromgren, Chel↗
NASA NTRS1999

Chemoprevention of Radiation Induced Rat Mammary Neoplasms

Radiations encountered in space include protons and heavy ions such as iron as well as their secondaries. The relative biological effect (RBE) of these ions is not known, particularly at the doses and dose-rates expected for planetary missions. Neutrons, are not particularly relevant to space travel, but have been found experimentally to have an increase in their RBE with decreasing dose. If a similar trend of increasing RBE with decreasing dose is present for heavy ions and protons during irradiation in space, the small doses received during space travel could potentially have substantial carcinogenic risk. Clearly more investigation of the effects of heavy ions and protons is needed before accurate risk assessment for prolonged travel in space can be done. One means to mitigate the increased risk of cancer due to radiation exposure in space is by developing effective countermeasures that can reduce the incidence of tumor development. Tamoxifen has recently been shown to be an effective chemopreventive agent in both animal models and humans for the prevention of mammary tumors. Tamoxifen is a unique drug, with a highly specific mechanism of action affecting a specific radiation-sensitive population of epithelial cells in the mammary gland. In human studies, the annual incidence of a primary tumor in the contralateral breast of women with previous breast cancer is about 8 per 1000, making them an exceedingly high-risk group for the development of breast cancer. In this high risk group, treated with tamoxifen, daily, for 2 years, the incidence of a new primary tumor in the contralateral breast was approximately one third of that noted in the non-tamoxifen treatment group. Tamoxifen antagonizes the action of estrogen by competing for the nuclear receptor complex thereby altering the association of the receptor complex and nuclear binding sites. Its effects in reducing the development of breast cancer could be accomplished by controlling clinically undetectable microcancers, arresting preneoplastic lesions, or correcting abnormal environments which predispose to high risk of malignant transformation.

Huso, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Controlling Air Traffic (Simulated) in the Presence of Automation (CATS PAu) 1995: A Study of Measurement Techniques for Situation Awareness in Air Traffic Control

As automated systems proliferate in aviation systems, human operators are taking on less and less of an active role in the jobs they once performed, often reducing what should be important jobs to tasks barely more complex than monitoring machines. When operators are forced into these roles, they risk slipping into hazardous states of awareness, which can lead to reduced skills, lack of vigilance, and the inability to react quickly and competently when there is a machine failure. Using Air Traffic Control (ATC) as a model, the present study developed tools for conducting tests focusing on levels of automation as they relate to situation awareness. Subjects participated in a two-and-a-half hour experiment that consisted of a training period followed by a simulation of air traffic control similar to the system presently used by the FAA, then an additional simulation employing automated assistance. Through an iterative design process utilizing numerous revisions and three experimental sessions, several measures for situational awareness in a simulated Air Traffic Control System were developed and are prepared for use in future experiments.

French, Jennifer R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Managing Research in a Risk World

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

Anton, W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Crew collaboration in space: a naturalistic decision-making perspective

Successful long-duration space missions will depend on the ability of crewmembers to respond promptly and effectively to unanticipated problems that arise under highly stressful conditions. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) exploits the knowledge and experience of decision makers in meaningful work domains, especially complex sociotechnical systems, including aviation and space. Decision making in these ambiguous, dynamic, high-risk environments is a complex task that involves defining the nature of the problem and crafting a response to achieve one's goals. Goal conflicts, time pressures, and uncertain outcomes may further complicate the process. This paper reviews theory and research pertaining to the NDM model and traces some of the implications for space crews and other groups that perform meaningful work in extreme environments. It concludes with specific recommendations for preparing exploration crews to use NDM effectively.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2005

Enhancing the Design Process for Complex Space Systems through Early Integration of Risk and Variable-Fidelity Modeling

An important enabler of the new national Vision for Space Exploration is the ability to rapidly and efficiently develop optimized concepts for the manifold future space missions that this effort calls for. The design of such complex systems requires a tight integration of all the engineering disciplines involved, in an environment that fosters interaction and collaboration. The research performed under this grant explored areas where the space systems design process can be enhanced: by integrating risk models into the early stages of the design process, and by including rapid-turnaround variable-fidelity tools for key disciplines. Enabling early assessment of mission risk will allow designers to perform trades between risk and design performance during the initial design space exploration. Entry into planetary atmospheres will require an increased emphasis of the critical disciplines of aero- and thermodynamics. This necessitates the pulling forward of EDL disciplinary expertise into the early stage of the design process. Radiation can have a large potential impact on overall mission designs, in particular for the planned nuclear-powered robotic missions under Project Prometheus and for long-duration manned missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond under Project Constellation. This requires that radiation and associated risk and hazards be assessed and mitigated at the earliest stages of the design process. Hence, RPS is another discipline needed to enhance the engineering competencies of conceptual design teams. Researchers collaborated closely with NASA experts in those disciplines, and in overall space systems design, at Langley Research Center and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This report documents the results of this initial effort.

Mavris, Dimitri↗
NASA NTRS2011

Update - Concept of Operations for Integrated Model-Centric Engineering at JPL

The increasingly ambitious requirements levied on JPL's space science missions, and the development pace of such missions, challenge our current engineering practices. All the engineering disciplines face this growth in complexity to some degree, but the challenges are greatest in systems engineering where numerous competing interests must be reconciled and where complex system level interactions must be identified and managed. Undesired system-level interactions are increasingly a major risk factor that cannot be reliably exposed by testing, and natural-language single-viewpoint specifications areinadequate to capture and expose system level interactions and characteristics. Systems engineering practices must improve to meet these challenges, and the most promising approach today is the movement toward a more integrated and model-centric approach to mission conception, design, implementation and operations. This approach elevates engineering models to a principal role in systems engineering, gradually replacing traditional document centric engineering practices.

The Concept of Operations (ConOps)↗
NASA NTRS2004

Teleoperation from Mars Orbit: A proposal for Human Exploration

For a human expedition to Mars, a case can be made that the best strategy for initial exploration is not to actually land the humans on Mars, but to put the humans into Mars orbit and operate on the surface by the technology of teleoperation. This will provide the results of human exploration, but at greatly reduced risk and cost. Teleoperation of Mars surface robots from a Mars-orbital habitat will operation near real time operation with minimum time delay, giving a virtual presence on the surface. By use of teleoperation, it is possible to vastly simplify the surface exploration mission. We now have no need to develop a human-rated Mars Lander and Mars Ascent Vehicle, and we can send geologists & biologists on the mission; not VTOL pilots. It is a cheaper, simpler, and safer way to explore, and hence it will be a faster way to explore. It has the excitement of being there, at a fraction of the price. Tele-exploration from Mars orbit also allows human (virtual) presence at a wide variety of locations. With an orbital base controlling surface telerobotics, human explorers are not stuck with one base location, but can explore all over Mars. They can explore the polar caps and also near-equatorial canyon regions, from the same orbiting base. This frees the mission from landing site constraints. With no need to select a "grab bag" site that contains a large number of geologically diverse features at or near a single location; it is now possible go to all the best sites-- paleolake sites, river beds, volcanic calderas, lava tube sites, layered terrain, canyons, possible shoreline features, the North and South poles. A near-polar inclination 24-hr 39-minute period Mars orbit, for example, will put the orbital station in line-of-sight of a given region for about 8 hours per day-- one teleoperation shift. Since present day life could exist on Mars, planetary protection is also needed to preserve the (possible) fragile Mars biosphere from competition from ferocious Earth life. Isolated biospheres on Earth have been devastated when they have been exposed to alien life forms introduced-accidentally or deliberately-- from another continent. If there is life on Mars, we will wish to protect it from having to compete with introduced Earth biota. Reverse planetary protection-protecting the Earth biosphere from exposure to Mars microorganisms-is also an important consideration. Exploring from orbit will reduce biological risk by keeping humans from exposure to possible Mars microbes. A telerobotic mission will need no quarantine on return to Earth, and avoids the difficult human question of how to isolate Mars mission astronauts infected by Martian microorganisms.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Systems Engineering to Develop an Integrated Crew Health and Performance System to Mitigate Risk for Human Exploration Missions

New space exploration missions are currently being designed to take humanity beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) to cis-lunar space, the lunar surface, and eventually to Mars. These missions carry increased risks due to a number of factors, including distance from Earth, exposure to deep space hazards, reduced capacity and ability to resupply and evacuate, and increased communication delays. As distance from Earth grows and mission length increases, a growing proportion of mission risk can be attributed to the “human system.” Almost twenty years ago, the Institute of Medicine in the United States recommended the early and complete integration of the human system into the spacecraft and mission design process to mitigate this increased risk inherent in exploration missions. Exploration missions will require increasing levels of crew self-sufficiency that will challenge the current operational paradigms established in LEO. Enabling progressive Earth independence requires management of the increasingly complex interactions among spacecraft systems and integration of all the data and functions that affect human health and performance into one coordinated system –the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. This system is a critical spacecraft system that is analogous to other systems such as propulsion, guidance and navigation, or avionics. Design and integration of the CHP system requires the evidence-based merger of typically disparate disciplines such as medicine, human factors, and life support system design, using systems engineering (SE) practices. SE provides traceability of spacecraft requirements and enables reliable and repeatable trade space analysis of the many competing options for hardware and software to be included in the mission architecture. The approach described here enables spacecraft and mission designers to align the scope of a CHP system with mission specific requirements, decrease risk to the crew, and increase the probability of mission success.

Kerry McGuire↗
NASA NTRS1993

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Schlater, Nelson J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA"s proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for the develpoment of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Schlater, Nelson J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of Convective Heat Transfer in a Water Shield for a Surface Power Reactor

As part of the Vision for Space Exploration, the end of the next decade will bring man back to the surface of the moon. A crucial issue for the establishment of human presence on the moon will be the availability of compact power sources. This presence could require greater than 10's of kWt's in follow on years. Nuclear reactors are well suited to meet the needs for power generation on the lunar or Martian surface. Radiation shielding is a key component of any surface power reactor system. Several competing concepts exist for lightweight, safe, robust shielding systems such as a water shield, lithium hydride (LiH), and boron carbide. Water offers several potential advantages, including reduced cost, reduced technical risk, and reduced mass. Water has not typically been considered for space reactor applications because of the need for gravity to fix the location of any vapor that could form radiation streaming paths. The water shield concept relies on the predictions of passive circulation of the shield water by natural convection to adequately cool the shield. This prediction needs to be experimentally evaluated, especially for shields with complex geometries. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed the experience and facilities necessary to do this evaluation in its Early Flight Fission - Test Facility (EFF-TF).

Pearson J. Boise↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

adaptive management↗