Statistical algorithms and computer programs for analysis of multi-spectral observations Final report
Statistical algorithms and computer programs for remote sensor multispectral data analysis
Hand, C. G.↗
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Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification
Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.
active subspace↗
Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier: Modeling, statistics, simulations, and computing needs for direct dark matter detection
This paper summarizes the modeling, statistics, simulation, and computing needs of direct dark matter detection experiments in the next decade.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Monte Carlo Analysis of the Commissioning Phase Maneuvers of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will perform soil moisture content and freeze/thaw state observations from a low-Earth orbit. The observatory is scheduled to launch in October 2014 and will perform observations from a near-polar, frozen, and sun-synchronous Science Orbit for a 3-year data collection mission. At launch, the observatory is delivered to an Injection Orbit that is biased below the Science Orbit; the spacecraft will maneuver to the Science Orbit during the mission Commissioning Phase. The delta V needed to maneuver from the Injection Orbit to the Science Orbit is computed statistically via a Monte Carlo simulation; the 99th percentile delta V (delta V99) is carried as a line item in the mission delta V budget. This paper details the simulation and analysis performed to compute this figure and the delta V99 computed per current mission parameters.
Monte Carlo simulations↗
Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station
The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.
Bauman, William H., III↗
Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation
This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Quantum Simulations of Radiation Damage in a Molecular Polyethylene Analog
Abstract An atomic‐level understanding of radiation‐induced damage in simple polymers like polyethylene is essential for determining how these chemical changes can alter the physical and mechanical properties of important technological materials such as plastics. Ensembles of quantum simulations of radiation damage in a polyethylene analog are performed using the Density Functional Tight Binding method to help bind its radiolysis and subsequent degradation as a function of radiation dose. Chemical degradation products are categorized with a graph theory approach, and occurrence rates of unsaturated carbon bond formation, crosslinking, cycle formation, chain scission reactions, and out‐gassing products are computed. Statistical correlations between product pairs show significant correlations between chain scission reactions, unsaturated carbon bond formation, and out‐gassing products, though these correlations decrease with increasing atom recoil energy. The results present relatively simple chemical descriptors as possible indications of network rearrangements in the middle range of excitation energies. Ultimately, the work provides a computational framework for determining the coupling between nonequilibrium chemistry in polymers and potential changes to macro‐scale properties that can aid in the interpretation of future radiation damage experiments on plastic materials.
38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
A crossed molecular beams and computational study on the unusual reactivity of banana bonds of cyclopropane (c-C 3 H 6 ; X 1 A$^{'}_{1}$ ) through insertion by ground state carbon atoms (C( 3 P j ))
The mechanism and chemical dynamics of the reaction of ground electronic state atomic carbon C( 3 P j ) with cyclopropane c-C 3 H 6 (X 1 A$^{'}_{1}$) have been explored by combining crossed molecular beams experiments with electronic structure calculations of the pertinent triplet C 4 H 6 potential energy surface and statistical computations of product branching ratios under single-collision conditions. The experimental findings suggest that the reaction proceeds via indirect scattering dynamics through triplet C 4 H 6 reaction intermediate(s) leading to C 4 H 5 product(s) plus atomic hydrogen via a tight exit transition state, with the overall reaction exoergicity evaluated as 231 ± 52 kJ mol –1 . The calculations indicate that C( 3 P j ) can easily insert into one of the three equivalent C–C ‘banana’ bonds of cyclopropane overcoming a low barrier of only 2 kJ mol –1 following the formation of a van der Waals reactant complex stabilized by 15 kJ mol –1 . The carbon atom insertion into one of the six C–H bonds is also feasible via a slightly higher barrier of 5 kJ mol –1 . Here, these results highlight an unusual reactivity of cyclopropane's banana C–C bonds, which behave more like unsaturated C–C bonds with a π-character than saturated σ C–C bonds, which are known to be generally unreactive toward the ground electronic state atomic carbon such as in ethane (C 2 H 6 ). The statistical theory predicts the overall product branching ratios at the experimental collision energy as 50% for 1-butyn-4-yl, 33% for 1,3-butadien-2-yl, i-C 4 H 5 , and 11% for 1,3-butadien-1-yl, n-C 4 H 5 , with i-C 4 H 5 (230 kJ mol –1 below the reactants) favored by the C–C insertion providing the best match with the experimentally observed reaction exoergicity. The C( 3 P j ) + c-C 3 H 6 reaction is predicted to be a source of C 4 H 5 radicals under the conditions where its low entrance barriers can be overcome, such as in planetary atmospheres or in circumstellar envelopes but not in cold molecular clouds. Both i- and n-C 4 H 5 can further react with acetylene eventually producing the first aromatic ring and hence, the reaction of the atomic carbon with c-C 3 H 6 can be considered as an initial step toward the formation of benzene.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Computation of conventional and alternative jet fuel sensitivity to lean blowout
Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are performed to compute the sensitivity of a conventional (A-2) and an alternate bio-jet (C-1) fuel to Lean Blowout (LBO). A realistic aviation gas turbine engine combustor configuration is considered. Reliable experimental LBO data and OH* chemiluminescence data for the conventional and alternate jet fuel in the combustor configuration have recently become available. The present work utilizes a highly automated, on-the-fly meshing strategy, along with adaptive mesh refinement, to demonstrate the feasibility of capturing the realistic combustion processes. A Lagrangian framework, with initial conditions specified using measurements of spray statistics, is used to model the fuel spray. Newly developed compact reaction mechanisms based on fuel surrogates are validated for the A-2 and the C-1 fuels. The compact reaction mechanisms are implemented using a detailed finite rate chemistry solver. Spray statistics computed by the present LES simulations compare well with available measurements at stable flame conditions near the lean blowout limit. The computed shape of the stable flame as represented by line integrated OH concentrations compares well with the experimental OH* chemiluminescence data. Lean blowout is reached by gradually decreasing the fuel flow rate in the computations, similar to that in the experiments. The results of the LES simulations effectively capture the fuel composition effects and estimate the sensitivity of the LBO limits to the fuel type. The computed trends in LBO limits agree within engineering accuracy with the experimental results for conventional and alternative aviation fuels. The methodology for predicting the fuel composition effects on the lean blowout limits in a fully resolved realistic, complex combustor is established for the first time.
Adaptive mesh refinement↗
Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation
Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives
Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
gdess: A framework for evaluating simulated atmospheric CO 2 in Earth System Models
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and global warming. Climate-carbon feedbacks are often studied and estimated using Earth System Models (ESMs), which couple together multiple model components—including the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and cryosphere—to jointly simulate mass and energy exchanges within and between these components. Despite tremendous advances, model intercomparisons and benchmarking are aspects of ESMs that warrant further improvement (Fer et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2014). Such benchmarking is critical because comparing the value of state variables in these simulations against observed values provides evidence for appropriately refining model components; moreover, researchers can learn much about Earth system dynamics in the process (Randall et al., 2019). We introduce `gdess` (a.k.a., Greenhouse gas Diagnostics for Earth System Simulations), which parses observational datasets and ESM simulation output, combines them to be in a consistent structure, computes statistical metrics, and generates diagnostic visualizations. In its current incarnation, `gdess` facilitates evaluating a model's ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric CO 2 . The diagnostics implemented modularly in `gdess` support more rapid assessment and improvement of model-simulated global CO 2 sources and sinks associated with land and ocean ecosystem processes. We intend for this set of automated diagnostics to form an extensible, open source framework for future comparisons of simulated and observed concentrations of various greenhouse gases across Earth system models.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python
Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Fundamental limit of jet tagging
Identifying the origin of high-energy hadronic jets (jet tagging) has been a critical benchmark problem for machine learning in particle physics. Jets are ubiquitous at colliders and are complex objects that serve as prototypical examples of collections of particles to be categorized. Over the last decade, machine learning-based classifiers have replaced classical observables as the state of the art in jet tagging. Increasingly complex machine learning models are leading to increasingly more effective tagger performance. Our goal is to address the question of convergence—are we getting close to the fundamental limit on jet tagging or is there still potential for computational, statistical, and physical insights for further improvements? We address this question using state-of-the-art generative models to create a realistic, synthetic dataset with a known jet tagging optimum. Various state-of-the-art taggers are deployed on this dataset, showing that there is a significant gap between their performance and the optimum. Our dataset and software are made public to provide a benchmark task for future developments in jet tagging and other areas of particle physics.
Artificial intelligence↗
Wormholes with ends of the world
We study classical wormhole solutions in 3D gravity with end-of-the-world (EOW) branes, conical defects, kinks, and punctures. These solutions compute statistical averages of an ensemble of boundary conformal field theories (BCFTs) related to universal asymptotics of OPE data extracted from the 2D conformal bootstrap. Conical defects connect BCFT bulk operators; branes join BCFT boundary intervals with identical boundary conditions; kinks (1D defects along branes) link BCFT boundary operators; and punctures (0D defects) are endpoints where conical defects terminate on branes. We provide evidence for a correspondence between the gravity theory and the ensemble. In particular, the agreement of the g-function dependence results from an underlying topological aspect of the on-shell EOW brane action, from which a BCFT analog of the Schlenker-Witten theorem also follows.
AdS-CFT Correspondence↗
Isomer-resolved unimolecular dynamics of the hydroperoxyalkyl intermediate (•QOOH) in cyclohexane oxidation
The oxidation of cycloalkanes is important in the combustion of transportation fuels and in atmospheric secondary organic aerosol formation. A transient carbon-centered radical intermediate (•QOOH) in the oxidation of cyclohexane is identified through its infrared fingerprint and time- and energy-resolved unimolecular dissociation dynamics to hydroxyl (OH) radical and bicyclic ether products. Although the cyclohexyl ring structure leads to three nearly degenerate •QOOH isomers (β-, γ-, and δ-QOOH), their transition state (TS) barriers to OH products are predicted to differ considerably. Selective characterization of the β-QOOH isomer is achieved at excitation energies associated with the lowest TS barrier, resulting in rapid unimolecular decay to OH products that are detected. A benchmarking approach is employed for the calculation of high-accuracy stationary point energies, in particular TS barriers, for cyclohexane oxidation (C 6 H 11 O 2 ), building on higher-level reference calculations for the smaller ethane oxidation (C 2 H 5 O 2 ) system. The isomer-specific characterization of β-QOOH is validated by comparison of experimental OH product appearance rates with computed statistical microcanonical rates, including significant heavy-atom tunneling, at energies in the vicinity of the TS barrier. Master-equation modeling is utilized to extend the results to thermal unimolecular decay rate constants at temperatures and pressures relevant to cyclohexane combustion.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Effects of renormalon scheme and perturbative scale choices on determinations of the strong coupling from e + e − event shapes
We study the role of renormalon cancellation schemes and perturbative scale choices in extractions of the strong coupling constant α s ( m Z ) and the leading nonperturbative shift parameter Ω 1 from resummed predictions of the e + e − event shape thrust. We calculate the thrust distribution to N L 3 L ′ resummed accuracy in soft-collinear effective theory (SCET) matched to the fixed-order O ( α s 2 ) prediction, and perform a new high-statistics computation of the O ( α s 3 ) matching in , although we do not include the latter in our final α s fits due to some observed systematics that require further investigation. We are primarily interested in testing the phenomenological impact sourced from varying amongst three renormalon cancellation schemes and two sets of perturbative scale profile choices. We then perform a global fit to available data spanning center-of-mass energies between 35–207 GeV in each scenario. Relevant subsets of our results are consistent with prior SCET-based extractions of α s ( m Z ) , but we are also led to a number of novel observations. Notably, we find that the combined effect of altering the renormalon cancellation scheme and profile parameters can lead to few-percent-level impacts on the extracted values in the α s − Ω 1 plane, indicating a potentially important systematic theory uncertainty that should be accounted for. We also observe that fits performed over windows dominated by dijet events are typically of a higher quality than those that extend into the far tails of the distributions, possibly motivating future fits focused more heavily in this region. Finally, we discuss how different estimates of the three-loop soft matching coefficient c S ˜ 3 can also lead to measurable changes in the fitted { α s , Ω 1 } values. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Bulk Properties of an Atomic Nucleus
We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the binding energy and the charge radius of the nucleus 16 O to identify the most influential low-energy constants in the next-to-next-to-leading order chiral Hamiltonian with two- and three-nucleon forces. For this purpose, we develop a subspace-projected coupled-cluster method using eigenvector continuation [Frame D. et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 032501 (2018)]. With this method, we compute the binding energy and charge radius of 16 O at more than 106 different values of the 16 low-energy constants in one hour on a standard laptop computer. For relatively small subspace projections, the root-mean-square error is about 1% compared to full-space coupled-cluster results. We find that 58(1)% of the variance in energy can be apportioned to a single contact term in the 3 S 1 wave, whereas the radius depends sensitively on several low-energy constants and their higher-order correlations. The results identify the most important parameters for describing nuclear saturation and help prioritize efforts for uncertainty reduction of theoretical predictions. The achieved acceleration opens up an array of computational statistics analyses of the underlying description of the strong nuclear interaction in nuclei across the Segrè chart.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗