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At least 55 records · Page 3

Machine learning assisted bayesian inference of mix and hot-spot conditions in NIF implosions

Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have provided clear evidence of ablator material mixing into the Hot-Spot, leading to degraded performance. However, inferring the amount of mix and Hot-Spot conditions from typical experimental observations (e.g. x-ray spectra and images) is highly challenging. Here, we have developed an analysis method that utilizes machine learning assisted Bayesian inference to find the probability distributions of the Hot-Spot and mix conditions. This approach uses a neural network, trained on an idealized 2-dimensional representation of the Hot-Spot and mix distribution, and Bayesian inference to find the statistical distributions of Hot-Spot conditions that provide a match with observations. We have tested this method with synthetic data from simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantitative characterization of gradient microstructures: A study on friction stir spot processing of pure cobalt

Heterogeneous microstructures in polycrystalline metals can enhance the strength and ductility, outperforming homogeneous structures of similar composition. This study investigates deformed cobalt via friction stir spot processing with varying dwell times to uncover the effects of plastic deformation and heat generation on the formation of morphological, phase, and grain boundary character gradients. A new approach to quantify the morphological gradients in materials, which describes grain morphology in terms of density followed by parametric regression, enables direct quantification of processing depth and gradient sharpness. Results show that longer processing times increase the steepness of morphological gradients and reduce the deformation depth for friction stir spot processing with low plunge depths and high tool rotational speeds. The amount of retained FCC is increased in the shorter processing conditions, primarily due to refined grain size, increased defect content, and reduced heat generation. Crystallographic texture analysis of the HCP phase indicated a dominant B-fiber described by (0001) ∥ shear plane normal in the extreme processing conditions and the formation of a P-fiber, shear direction ∥ ⟨11$\bar2$0⟩ for intermediate dwell times. The texture of the FCC phase for low processing times was a C texture {100}⟨011⟩ where longer processing times were dominated by a [001] fiber texture with a main {110}⟨100⟩ orientation and emergence of a slight [111] fiber in the longest processing condition. The approaches outlined in this work give insight into quantifying gradients and improve the understanding of highly deformed cobalt.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Robotics for Energy Infrastructure Construction on Earth and Beyond: Pilot Study Exploring Level 3-4 Semi-Autonomous Installation of a Reduced-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant Prototype: Preprint

There is a growing need to build energy infrastructure at massive scale on both Earth and in space. On Earth, increasing electricity demand from applications such as AI data centers is driving rapid expansion of power systems, while in space, long-duration missions such as lunar operations require reliable and resilient energy infrastructure that can be deployed quickly. These needs outpace the capabilities of conventional construction methods. Robotic construction offers a path to faster, lower-cost, and more consistent deployment, yet most existing approaches focus on automating individual tasks rather than end-to-end assembly. The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Colorado School of Mines, has been investigating robotics and automation strategies for rapid end-to-end energy infrastructure construction. This paper presents a pilot study demonstrating level 3-4 semi-autonomous, end-to-end robotic assembly of a reduced-scale photovoltaic power plant prototype under terrestrial conditions. The approach combines hardware redesign of photovoltaic components for robotic compatibility, discrete-event and physics-based robotic simulations in synthetic environments, and sim-to-real deployment to execute end-to-end robotic assembly of[NM1.1][NM1.2] tracking components, structural members, photovoltaic modules, and embedded electrical connections. The pilot identifies key limitations like tolerance management, perception and localization, end effector capability, fastening methods, and multi-physics simulation fidelity, that must be addressed to enable end-to-end robotic assembly of full-scale energy infrastructure. The study highlights how these insights inform scaling strategies for terrestrial energy infrastructure and adaptation to unstructured and extreme environments, including off-world scenarios such as robotic assembly of vertical tall lunar towers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Thin-film chemical expansion of ceria based solid solutions: laser vibrometry study

The chemical expansion of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ (PCO) and CeO 2-δ thin films is investigated in the temperature range between 600 °C and 800 °C by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). It enables non-contact determination of nanometer scale changes in film thickness at high temperatures. The present study is the first systematic and detailed investigation of chemical expansion of doped and undoped ceria thin films at temperatures above 650 °C. The thin films were deposited on yttria stabilized zirconia substrates (YSZ), operated as an electrochemical oxygen pump, to periodically adjust the oxygen activity in the films, leading to reversible expansion and contraction of the film. This further leads to stresses in the underlying YSZ substrates, accompanied by bending of the overall devices. Film thickness changes and sample bending are found to reach up to 10 and several hundred nanometers, respectively, at excitation frequencies from 0.1 to 10 Hz and applied voltages from 0–0.75 V for PCO and 0–1 V for ceria. At low frequencies, equilibrium conditions are approached. As a consequence maximum thin-film expansion of PCO is expected due to full reduction of the Pr ions. The lower detection limit for displacements is found to be in the subnanometer range. At 800 °C and an excitation frequency of 1 Hz, the LDV shows a remarkable resolution of 0.3 nm which allows, for example, the characterization of materials with small levels of expansion, such as undoped ceria at high oxygen partial pressure. As the correlation between film expansion and sample bending is obtained through this study, a dimensional change of a free body consisting of the same material can be calculated using the high resolution characteristics of this system. A minimum detectable dimensional change of 5 pm is estimated even under challenging high-temperature conditions at 800 °C opening up opportunities to investigate electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena heretofore impossible to investigate. The expansion data are correlated with previous results on the oxygen nonstoichiometry of PCO thin films, and a defect model for bulk ceria solid solutions is adopted to calculate the cation and anion radii changes in the constrained films during chemical expansion. The constrained films exhibit anisotropic volume expansion with displacements perpendicular to the substrate plane nearly double that of bulk samples. The PCO films used here generate high total displacements of several 100 nm’s with high reproducibility. Consequently, PCO films are identified to be a potential core component of high-temperature actuators. They benefit not only from high displacements at temperatures where most piezoelectric materials no longer operate while exhibiting, low voltage operation and low energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Rapid, Sustainable, One‐step Mechanochemical Strategy for Synthesizing Gold Nanoparticle‐Doped Covalent Organic Frameworks

Doping gold nanoparticles within covalent organic frameworks (AuNPs@COFs) has garnered enormous momentum due to their unique properties and broad applications. Nevertheless, prevailing multi-step synthesis is plagued with low time efficiency, eco-unfriendliness, and tedious protocols. Herein, we introduce a rapid, sustainable, scalable, one-step mechanochemical strategy for synthesizing up to four AuNPs-doped COFs via steel ball milling within an hour under ambient conditions. This approach overcomes the synthetic barriers of conventional multi-step solution-based methods, such as extended reaction times (5 days), milligram scale, the use of toxic solvents, elevated temperatures, and reliance on external reducing agents. One exemplary AuNPs@COF (AuNPs@DMTP-TPB) exhibits high crystallinity, porosity, small AuNP size, and uniform dispersion (5.4±0.6 nm), surpassing its counterpart synthesized via multi-step solution-based methods (6.4±1.1 nm). Notably, the gram-scale synthesis of AuNPs@DMTP-TPB can be successfully achieved. Control experiments suggest that the in situ formation of AuNPs is attributed to the galvanic reduction of gold precursor by stainless steel apparatus. As a proof-of-concept catalytic application, AuNPs@DMTP-TPB demonstrates remarkable catalytic activity and recyclability for the aqueous reduction of 4-nitrophenol under ambient conditions. This study provides an environmentally benign and fast pathway to synthesize AuNPs@COFs via mechanochemistry for the first time, opening tremendous possibilities for heterogeneous catalysis and beyond.

Nailwal, Yogendra↗

Accelerating nuclear fuel development and qualification: Modeling and simulation integrated with separate-effects testing

In this work, an approach to transform and accelerate nuclear fuel development and qualification is outlined. The approach exploits advanced modeling and simulation at the outset to inform constituent and system selection and to enable integral fuel performance analyses. Analyses using these tools identify and prioritize the most important fuel performance parameters and phenomena for subsequent targeted characterization with separate-effects tests. Separate-effects testing spans out-of-pile and in-pile tests and is meant to iterate with and inform engineering-scale integral fuel performance analyses throughout the development process. Exercising this cycle in an agile fashion will increase confidence in the integral fuel performance predictions while reducing uncertainties. This process sets the stage for executing a much more limited set of well-defined integral irradiation tests designed to validate engineering-scale fuel performance codes and to confirm the performance and safety of the fuel system under prototypic conditions. This approach will reduce the time for development and qualification of a new fuel system, and it will also reduce associated costs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bilayer hybrid graphite anodes via freeze tape casting for extreme fast charging applications

Extreme fast charging (XFC) of lithium-ion batteries is critical for continuous market adoption of electric vehicles. However, mass transport limitations and sluggish kinetics lead to lithium plating in graphite anodes under fast charging conditions. One approach to address the mass transport limitation in graphite is to design low-tortuosity electrodes to enhance ionic transport. In this study, a bilayer hybrid structured electrode with directionally aligned channels was developed via freeze tape casting, which enables faster lithium ion diffusion through the graphite electrode. A scalable roll-to-roll process was designed in which slurry can be cast on any substrates for simple processing. Additionally, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements indicated that the bilayer hybrid coating had both low tortuosity and short diffusion pathways, enabling XFC charging. Rate testing for the bilayer hybrid electrode indicated superior performance over the other coatings, exhibiting a ~20% improvement in the charge capacity compared with the conventional coating at 5C and 10 min total charging time. The bilayer hybrid electrode also demonstrated a 10% improvement in capacity retention compared with the conventional electrode after 1000 cycles at XFC conditions. This study demonstrates freeze tape casting as a scalable way to fabricate low-tortuosity electrodes for XFC applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Iridescence from Total Internal Reflection at 3D Microscale Interfaces: Mechanistic Insights and Spectral Analysis

An experimental investigation and the optical modeling of the structural coloration produced from total internal reflection interference within 3D microstructures are described. Ray-tracing simulations coupled with color visualization and spectral analysis techniques are used to model, examine, and rationalize the iridescence generated for a range of microgeometries, including hemicylinders and truncated hemispheres, under varying illumination conditions. An approach to deconstruct the observed iridescence and complex far-field spectral features into its elementary components and systematically link them to ray trajectories that emanate from the illuminated microstructures is demonstrated. The results are compared with experiments, wherein microstructures are fabricated with methods such as chemical etching, multiphoton lithography, and grayscale lithography. Microstructure arrays patterned on surfaces with varying orientation and size lead to unique color-traveling optical effects and highlight opportunities for how total internal reflection interference can be used to create customizable reflective iridescence. The findings herein provide a robust conceptual framework for rationalizing this multibounce interference mechanism and establish approaches for characterizing and tailoring the optical and iridescent properties of microstructured surfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Graph Identification of Proteins in Tomograms (GRIP-Tomo) 2.0: Topologically aware classification for proteins

Cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET) enables structural characterization of biomolecules under near-native conditions. Existing approaches for interpreting the resulting three-dimensional volumes are computationally expensive and have difficulty interpreting density associated with small proteins/complexes. To explore alternate approaches for identifying proteins in cryo-ET data we pursued a Graph Network and topologically invariant approach. Here, we report on a fast algorithm that classifies particles by searching for nuances of evolutionarily conversed motifs and the geometrical characteristics of protein structure. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 is a machine-learning pipeline that extracts interpretable topological features of protein structures within noisy experimental backgrounds. Compared to version 1.0, the new pipeline includes three upgrades that significantly improve performance including synthetic tomogram generation simulating realistic noise, graph-based persistent feature extraction as protein fingerprints, and high-performance computing acceleration. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 achieves over 90% accuracy in classifying between proteins and noise using both real and synthetic datasets which represents a foundational step toward advancing cryo-ET workflows and empowering automated visual proteomics.

Li, Chengxuan↗

Probing eddy size and its effective mixing length in stably stratified roughness sublayer flows

Stably stratified roughness sublayer flows are ubiquitous yet remain difficult to represent in models and to interpret using field experiments. Here, continuous high-frequency potential temperature profiles from the forest floor up to 6.5 times the canopy height observed with distributed temperature sensing (DTS) are used to link eddy topology to roughness sublayer stability correction functions and coupling between air layers within and above the canopy. The experiments are conducted at two forest stands classified as hydrodynamically sparse and dense. Near-continuous profiles of eddy sizes (length scales) and effective mixing lengths for heat are derived from the observed profiles using a novel conditional sampling approach. The approach utilizes potential temperature isoline fluctuations from a statically stable background state. The transport of potential temperature by an observed eddy is assumed to be conserved (adiabatic movement) and we assume that irreversible heat exchange between the eddy and the surrounding background occurs along the (vertical) periphery of the eddy. This assumption is analogous to Prandtl's mixing-length concept, where momentum is transported rapidly vertically and then equilibrated with the local mean velocity gradient. A distinct dependence of the derived length scales on background stratification, height above ground, and canopy characteristics emerges from the observed profiles. Implications of these findings for (1) the failure of Monin–Obukhov similarity in the roughness sublayer and (2) above-canopy flow coupling to the forest floor are examined. The findings have practical applications in terms of analysing similar DTS data sets with the proposed approach, modelling roughness sublayer flows, and interpreting nocturnal eddy covariance measurements above tall forested canopies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uniform Subspace Correction Preconditioners for Discontinuous Galerkin Methods with hp-Refinement

In this paper, we develop subspace correction preconditioners for discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretizations of elliptic problems with hp-refinement. These preconditioners are based on the decomposition of the DG finite element space into a conforming subspace, and a set of small nonconforming edge spaces. The conforming subspace is preconditioned using a matrix-free low-order refined technique, which in this work, we extend to the hp-refinement context using a variational restriction approach. The condition number of the resulting linear system is independent of the granularity of the mesh h, and the degree of the polynomial approximation p. The method is amenable to use with meshes of any degree of irregularity and arbitrary distribution of polynomial degrees. Furthermore, numerical examples are shown on several test cases involving adaptively and randomly refined meshes, using both the symmetric interior penalty method and the second method of Bassi and Rebay (BR2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of inconel 600 oxidized under loss-of-coolant accident conditions: A multi-modal approach

Understanding the performance of cladding materials during a loss-of-coolant accident scenario is crucial for developing next-generation accident tolerant nuclear fuel rod claddings. We describe a multi-modal approach combining synchrotron-based diffraction, and Raman spectroscopy with nano-scale electron microscopy techniques for investigating oxidation of Inconel 600 (A600) in steam and air environments at 1200 °C for 2 h. We report that A600 exposed to steam develops a Cr 2 O 3 -enriched surface layer while a mixed phase oxide layer containing NiFe 2 O 4 , Cr 2 O 3 , Fe 3 O 4 and Fe (3–x) CrxO 4 is formed in air. Mechanism of oxidation for A600 in air and steam environments is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study↗

Estimation of distributions via multilevel Monte Carlo with stratified sampling

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a vector-valued quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters and initial conditions. Our approach combines MLMC with stratified sampling of the input sample space by replacing standard Monte Carlo at each level with stratified Monte Carlo initialized with proportionally allocated samples. We show that the resulting stratified MLMC (sMLMC) algorithm is more efficient than its standard MLMC counterpart due to the additional variance reduction provided by the stratification of the random parameter's domain, especially at the coarsest levels. Additional computational cost savings are obtained by smoothing the indicator function with a Gaussian kernel, which proves to be an efficient and robust alternative to recently developed polynomial-based techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗