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NASA NTRS2015

An Updated Process for Automated Deepspace Conjunction Assessment

There is currently a high level of interest in the areas of conjunction assessment and collision avoidance from organizations conducting space operations. Current conjunction assessment activity is mainly focused on spacecraft and debris in the Earth orbital environment [1]. However, collisions are possible in other orbital environments as well [2]. This paper will focus on the current operations of and recent updates to the Multimission Automated Deep Space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP) used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA to perform conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon. Various space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon with additional future missions planned. The consequences of collisions are catastrophically high. Intuitive notions predict low probability of collisions in these sparsely populated environments, but may be inaccurate due to several factors. Orbits of scientific interest often tend to have similar characteristics as do the orbits of spacecraft that provide a communications relay for surface missions. The MADCAP process is controlled by an automated scheduler which initializes analysis based on a set timetable or the appearance of new ephemeris files either locally or on the Deep Space Network (DSN) Portal. The process then generates and communicates reports which are used to facilitate collision avoidance decisions. The paper also describes the operational experience and utilization of the automated tool during periods of high activity and interest such as: the close approaches of NASA's Lunar Atmosphere & Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) during the LADEE mission. In addition, special consideration was required for the treatment of missions with rapidly varying orbits and less reliable long term downtrack estimates; in particular this was necessitated by perturbations to MAVEN's orbit induced by the Martian atmosphere. The application of special techniques to non-operational spacecraft with large uncertainties is also studied. Areas for future work are also described. Although the applications discussed in this paper are in the Martian and Lunar environments, the techniques are not unique to these bodies and could be applied to other orbital environments.

collision↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Initial Analysis of Automating Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Planning in Space Traffic Management

We introduce a framework that automates the process of assessing potential satellite conjunctions in space, and generating collision avoidance maneuvers to support mitigation efforts within a novel space traffic management (STM) architecture. A software implementation of the framework was developed in a MATLAB-STK integrated environment, however, the concept and framework is agnostic to the language or environment. The software pulls from existing catalogs of spaceborne objects and ingests user-defined parameters to produce conjunction data, which could potentially aid collision avoidance planning in the STM architecture. The utility of the software in maneuver planning and exploring a performance-based tradespace of actions is demonstrated using three example cases: one-to-one conjunction, one-versus-four conjunctions, and a near head-on collision. The framework also provides a test-bed for the use of application programming interfaces (APIs) to demonstrate machine-to-machine communication between entities in our proposed STM architecture. Results from this software implementation are expected to aid distributed decision-making among various stakeholders, and inform efficient, autonomous, structured but flexible concept of operations within STM.

Space Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2019

Nasa Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Updated Requirements Architecture

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.

Newman, Lauri K.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Updated Requirements Architecture

Newman, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Communications with Curiosity during solar conjunction

This study examines the methodology for operating and communicating with NASA's Curiosity Rover (MSL) during the 2019 solar conjunction. For MSL, solar conjunction occurs when the viewing angle between the Sun and Mars from Earth's perspective falls below 3 degrees, which occurs roughly every two Earth years and lasts for about two weeks. This presents a challenge for engineers operating a vehicle on Mars because the degraded signal to noise ratio disrupts data flow between Earth and the spacecraft. As a result, operators designate a command moratorium in which no commands are sent to the rover and instead design long-term plans that are uplinked weeks in advance (rather than the nominal case of daily uplinks). Coordinating communications with the rover leading up to and following conjunction requires negotiations with several orbiters, another lander, and the Deep Space Network (DSN) each with their own set of constraints. It is the Strategic Comm Planning T coordination, which acts as a baseline for the conjunction Comm team faced additional complications such as the arrival of two new spacecraft at Mars - Roscosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO).

Laubach, Sharon↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Conjunction Assessment Organizational Approach and the Associated Determination of Screening Volume Sizes

NASA is committed to safety of flight for all of its operational assets Performed by CARA at NASA GSFC for robotic satellites Focus of this briefing Performed by TOPO at NASA JSC for human spaceflight he Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) was stood up to offer this service to all NASA robotic satellites Currently provides service to 70 operational satellites NASA unmanned operational assets Other USG assets (USGS, USAF, NOAA) International partner assets Conjunction Assessment (CA) is the process of identifying close approaches between two orbiting objects; sometimes called conjunction screening The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) a USAF unit at Vandenberg AFB, maintains the high accuracy catalog of space objects, screens CARA-supported assets against the catalog, performs OD tasking, and generates close approach data.

Conjunction↗

NASA NTRS2016

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

assessment↗

NASA NTRS2017

Conjunction Assessment Techniques and Operational Results from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

This paper will describe the results that have been obtained to date during the MMS mission concerning conjunction assessment. MMS navigation makes use of a weak-signal GPS-based system: this allows signals to be received even when MMS is flying above the GPS orbits, producing a highly accurate determination of the four MMS orbits. This data is downlinked to the MMS Mission Operations Center (MOC) and used by the Flight Dynamics Operations Area (FDOA) for both maneuver design and conjunction assessment. The MMS fly in tetrahedron formations around apogee, in order to collect simultaneous particles and fields science data. The original plan was to fly tetrahedra between 10 and 160 km in size; however, after Phase 1a of the mission, the science team requested that smaller sizes be flown if feasible. After analysis (to be detailed in a companion paper), a new minimum size of 7 km was decided upon. Flying at this reduced scale size makes conjunction assessment between the MMS spacecraft even more important: the methods that are used by the MMS FDOA to address this problem will be described in the paper, and a summary given of the previous analyses that went into the development of these techniques. Details will also be given of operational experiences to date. Finally, two CA mitigation maneuver types that have been designed (but never yet required to actually be performed) will also be outlined.

conjunction Assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft.

Collision Consequence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Ground Systems, Software and Operations Infrastructure Cloud Implementation

The growing number of large-scale constellations and the improvements made in the tracking and detection of resident space objects have contributed to the increase of satellite conjunction events. As a result of the increase of objects in Earth orbit, the timeline for risk analysis computations for satellite collision avoidance is more urgent when conjunctions occur. It is imperative NASA maintains a space environment safety functionality for the agency that allows CARA remote access to the ground system while maintaining redundancy. CARA’s On-premises (On-prem) ground system would no longer be able to meet these access and redundancy requirements, hence the investigation and eventual implementation of a Cloud-based ground station infrastructure as a viable solution. This paper will provide an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk analysis process used at CARA, summarize the key drivers towards the Cloud solution, and share key lessons learned that are significant for any operational entity considering a cloud solution for real-time satellite operations to ensure a sustainable space traffic environment for all.

Sustainability↗

NASA NTRS1978

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of elliptical contacts for materials of low elastic modulus. II - Starved conjunction

The study evaluates the effect of lubricant starvation on minimum film thickness in starved elliptical elastohydrodynamic conjunctions for materials of low elastic modulus. Lubricant starvation is studied simply by moving the inlet boundary closer to the center of the conjunction. A simple expression is presented for the dimensionless inlet boundary distance; this inlet boundary distance defines whether a fully flooded or a starved condition exists in the conjunction. A formula for the minimum film thickness under the starvation condition is derived. Contour plots of the pressure and film thickness in and around the contact are presented for both the fully flooded and starved lubrication conditions. It is shown that the inlet pressure contours become less circular and that the film thickness decreases substantially with increasing starvation severity.

Hamrock, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The coronal electron density distribution determined from dual-frequency ranging measurements during the 1991 solar conjunction of the Ulysses spacecraft

Dual-frequency ranging and Doppler measurements were conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) at and around the spacecraft's first solar conjunction in 1991 August. The differential group delay time between range codes on the two downlink carrier signals at the wavelengths 13.1 and 3.6 cm, a direct measure of the total electron content between spacecraft and ground station, was used to derive the electron density distribution in the solar corona. Linear power-law representations of the coronal electron density were derived for the range of solar distances from 4 solar radii to 40 solar radii on both sides of the Sun. The corona was found to be very nearly symmetric; the radial falloff exponent being 2.54 +/- 0.05 for occultation ingress (east solar limb) and 2.42 +/- 0.05 for egress (west limb), respectively. The departure of these exponents from the inverse equare relation implies that significant solar wind acceleration is occurring within the radial range of the observations. The electron density level was found to be considerably lower than that observed during the 1988 December solar occultation of Voyager 2. Although the smoothed sunspot number R(sub z) (a standard indicator of solar activity) was almost the same in 1988 December and 1991 August, the mean electron density at 20 solar radii was found to be 1.7 +/- 0.1 x 10(exp 3)/cu cm during the Ulysses conjunction, a decline by almost a factor of 4 from the value obtained during the Voyager conjunction.

Bird, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ka-band and X-band observations of the solar corona acquired during the Cassini 2001 superior conjunction

Simultaneous dual-frequency Ka-band (32 GHz) and X-band (8.4 GHz) carrier signal data have been acquired during the superior conjunction of the Cassini spacecraft June 2001, using the NASA Deep Space Network's facilities located in Goldstone, California. The solar elongation angle of the observations varied from -4.1 degrees (-16 solar radii) to -0.6 degrees (-2.3 solar radii). The observed coronal and solar effects on the signals include spectral broadening, amplitude scintillation, phase scintillation, and increased noise. The measurements were generally consistent with existing solar models, except during solar transient events when the signatures of the measurements were observed to increase significantly above the quiet background levels. This is the second solar conjunction of Cassini for which simultaneous X/Ka data were acquired. Both solar conjunctions, conducted in May 2000 and June 2001, occurred near the peak of the current 11 year solar cycle.

propagation scintillation spectral broadening↗

NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Process: Overview and Operational Experiences

Orbital debris poses a significant threat to spacecraft health and safety. Recent events such as China's anti-satellite test and the Breeze-M rocket explosion have led to an even greater awareness and concern in the satellite community. Therefore, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established requirements that routine conjunction assessment screening shall be performed for all maneuverable spacecraft having perigees less than 2000 km or within 200 km of geosynchronous altitude. NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed an operational collision risk assessment process to protect NASA s high-value unmanned (robotic) assets that has been in use since January 2005. This paper provides an overview of the NASA robotic conjunction assessment process, including descriptions of the new tools developed to analyze close approach data and of the risk mitigation strategies employed. In addition, statistical data describing the number of conjunctions experienced are presented. A debris avoidance maneuver performed by Aura in June of 2008 is described in detail to illustrate the process.

Newman, Lauri Kraft↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Spaceflight Recent Conjunctions of Interest

I. During each nine-hour shift (or upon request), the Orbital Safety Analyst (OSA) at JSpOC updates the entire tracked catalog with the latest tracking data from the SSN and screens this catalog against NASA s assets. a) For ISS operations, a 72-hour advance screening is performed. b) For Shuttle orbit operations, a 36-hour advance screening is performed. c) If a vehicle is performing a maneuver during the screening period, OSA uses post-reboost-trajectory data supplied by Mission Control Center-Houston (MCC-H) for screening. II. An automated process is used to detect any conjunctions within 10 x 40 x 40 km box (centered on the vehicle) using Special Perturbation (SP) processing: a) Box dimensions are Radial x Downtrack x Crosstrack. b) Any object found within this box has the tracking tasking level increased to improve (hopefully) its uncertainty in its current and predicted orbital trajectory. c) OSA informs NASA if any object is found inside a 2 x 25 x 25 km box then creates and sends an Orbital Conjunction Message (OCM) to NASA which contains detailed information about the conjunction. d) For Shuttle, the box size used for screening and reporting is altered for special operations (day of rendezvous, launch screening, etc.).

Browns, Ansley C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Automated Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment at Mars and the Moon

Conjunction assessment and collision avoidance are areas of current high interest in space operations. Most current conjunction assessment activity focuses on the Earth orbital environment. Several of the world's space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon, and avoiding collisions there is important too. Smaller number of assets than Earth, and smaller number of organizations involved, but consequences similar to Earth scenarios.This presentation will examine conjunction assessment processes implemented at JPL for spacecraft in orbit at Mars and the Moon.

assessment processes↗