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54 records · Page 3

Best Practices for NPT Transit Matching

Transit matching is the process for relating or matching reports of shipments and receipts submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Transit matching is a component used by the IAEA in drawing safeguards conclusions and performing investigative analysis. Transit matching is part of IAEA safeguards activities and the State evaluation process, and it is included in the annual Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR). Annually, the IAEA currently receives reports of ~900,000 nuclear material transactions, of which ~500,000 are for domestic and foreign transfers. Of these the IAEA software can automatically match (i.e., machine match) about 95% of the domestic transfers and 25% of the foreign transfers. Given the increasing demands upon IAEA resources, it is highly desirable for the machine-matching process to match as many transfers as possible. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have conducted an investigation funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration through the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative to identify opportunities to strengthen IAEA transit matching. Successful matching, and more specifically machine matching, is contingent on quality data from the reporting States. In February 2016, ORNL hosted representatives from three States, the IAEA, and Euratom to share results from past studies and to discuss the processes, policies, and procedures associated with State reporting for transit matching. Drawing on each entity's experience and knowledge, ORNL developed a best practices document to be shared with the international safeguards community to strengthen transit matching. This paper shares the recommendations that resulted from this strategic meeting and the next steps being taken to strengthen transit matching.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Variation in forest root image annotation by experts, novices, and AI

Abstract Background The manual study of root dynamics using images requires huge investments of time and resources and is prone to previously poorly quantified annotator bias. Artificial intelligence (AI) image-processing tools have been successful in overcoming limitations of manual annotation in homogeneous soils, but their efficiency and accuracy is yet to be widely tested on less homogenous, non-agricultural soil profiles, e.g., that of forests, from which data on root dynamics are key to understanding the carbon cycle. Here, we quantify variance in root length measured by human annotators with varying experience levels. We evaluate the application of a convolutional neural network (CNN) model, trained on a software accessible to researchers without a machine learning background, on a heterogeneous minirhizotron image dataset taken in a multispecies, mature, deciduous temperate forest. Results Less experienced annotators consistently identified more root length than experienced annotators. Root length annotation also varied between experienced annotators. The CNN root length results were neither precise nor accurate, taking ~ 10% of the time but significantly overestimating root length compared to expert manual annotation ( p = 0.01). The CNN net root length change results were closer to manual ( p = 0.08) but there remained substantial variation. Conclusions Manual root length annotation is contingent on the individual annotator. The only accessible CNN model cannot yet produce root data of sufficient accuracy and precision for ecological applications when applied to a complex, heterogeneous forest image dataset. A continuing evaluation and development of accessible CNNs for natural ecosystems is required.

Handy, Grace↗

Quantifying Contaminant Mass for the Feasibility Study of the DuPont Chambers Works FUSRAP Site - 13510

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) - Philadelphia District is conducting an environmental restoration at the DuPont Chambers Works in Deepwater, New Jersey under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Discrete locations are contaminated with natural uranium, thorium-230 and radium-226. The USACE is proposing a preferred remedial alternative consisting of excavation and offsite disposal to address soil contamination followed by monitored natural attenuation to address residual groundwater contamination. Methods were developed to quantify the error associated with contaminant volume estimates and use mass balance calculations of the uranium plume to estimate the removal efficiency of the proposed alternative. During the remedial investigation, the USACE collected approximately 500 soil samples at various depths. As the first step of contaminant mass estimation, soil analytical data was segmented into several depth intervals. Second, using contouring software, analytical data for each depth interval was contoured to determine lateral extent of contamination. Six different contouring algorithms were used to generate alternative interpretations of the lateral extent of the soil contamination. Finally, geographical information system software was used to produce a three dimensional model in order to present both lateral and vertical extent of the soil contamination and to estimate the volume of impacted soil for each depth interval. The average soil volume from all six contouring methods was used to determine the estimated volume of impacted soil. This method also allowed an estimate of a standard deviation of the waste volume estimate. It was determined that the margin of error for the method was plus or minus 17% of the waste volume, which is within the acceptable construction contingency for cost estimation. USACE collected approximately 190 groundwater samples from 40 monitor wells. It is expected that excavation and disposal of contaminated soil will remove the contaminant source zone and significantly reduce contaminant concentrations in groundwater. To test this assumption, a mass balance evaluation was performed to estimate the amount of dissolved uranium that would remain in the groundwater after completion of soil excavation. As part of this evaluation, average groundwater concentrations for the pre-excavation and post-excavation aquifer plume area were calculated to determine the percentage of plume removed during excavation activities. In addition, the volume of the plume removed during excavation dewatering was estimated. The results of the evaluation show that approximately 98% of the aqueous uranium would be removed during the excavation phase. The USACE expects that residual levels of contamination will remain in groundwater after excavation of soil but at levels well suited for the selection of excavation combined with monitored natural attenuation as a preferred alternative. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computer-aided diagnosis for classifying benign versus malignant thyroid nodules based on ultrasound images: A comparison with radiologist-based assessments

Purpose: To develop a semiautomated computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system for thyroid cancer using two-dimensional ultrasound images that can be used to yield a second opinion in the clinic to differentiate malignant and benign lesions. Methods: A total of 118 ultrasound images that included axial and longitudinal images from patients with biopsy-confirmed malignant (n = 30) and benign (n = 29) nodules were collected. Thyroid CAD software was developed to extract quantitative features from these images based on thyroid nodule segmentation in which adaptive diffusion flow for active contours was used. Various features, including histogram, intensity differences, elliptical fit, gray-level co-occurrence matrixes, and gray-level run-length matrixes, were evaluated for each region imaged. Based on these imaging features, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier was used to differentiate benign and malignant nodules. Leave-one-out cross-validation with sequential forward feature selection was performed to evaluate the overall accuracy of this method. Additionally, analyses with contingency tables and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to compare the performance of CAD with visual inspection by expert radiologists based on established gold standards. Results: Most univariate features for this proposed CAD system attained accuracies that ranged from 78.0% to 83.1%. When optimal SVM parameters that were established using a grid search method with features that radiologists use for visual inspection were employed, the authors could attain rates of accuracy that ranged from 72.9% to 84.7%. Using leave-one-out cross-validation results in a multivariate analysis of various features, the highest accuracy achieved using the proposed CAD system was 98.3%, whereas visual inspection by radiologists reached 94.9% accuracy. To obtain the highest accuracies, “axial ratio” and “max probability” in axial images were most frequently included in the optimal feature sets for the authors’ proposed CAD system, while “shape” and “calcification” in longitudinal images were most frequently included in the optimal feature sets for visual inspection by radiologists. The computed areas under curves in the ROC analysis were 0.986 and 0.979 for the proposed CAD system and visual inspection by radiologists, respectively; no significant difference was detected between these groups. Conclusions: The use of thyroid CAD to differentiate malignant from benign lesions shows accuracy similar to that obtained via visual inspection by radiologists. Thyroid CAD might be considered a viable way to generate a second opinion for radiologists in clinical practice.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Next-Generation Optimization under Uncertainty: Structure-Oriented Algorithms

With the advent of the smart grid, renewable technologies, and carbon emission programs, a key concern is the coordination of national infrastructures such as the electricity, natural gas, and water supply network systems. Anticipating and mitigating uncertainty of weather, demands, and contingencies in a more integrated environment is necessary to maximize resource efficiency and prevent cascading failures that can ultimately lead to catastrophic shortages of supplies. This project developed scalable algorithms for stochastic optimization capable of addressing extreme-scale problems (motivated by challenges in the design and operation of national infrastructures). Specifically, the project developed a new family of algorithms to solve continuous stochastic problems to local and global optimality as well as algorithms to solve mixed-integer convex and nonconvex stochastic programs. We developed supporting local and global convergence theory for these algorithms and implemented the algorithms in open-source software packages that can leverage high-performance computing architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Lyapunov Function Based Remedial Action Screening Tool Using Real-Time Data

This report summarizes the outcome of a research project that comprised the development of a Lyapunov function based remedial action screening tool using real-time data (L-RAS). The L-RAS is an advanced computational tool that is intended to assist system operators in making real-time redispatch decisions to preserve power grid stability. The tool relies on screening contingencies using a homotopy method based on Lyapunov functions to avoid, to the extent possible, the use of time domain simulations. This enables transient stability evaluation at real-time speed without the use of massively parallel computational resources. The project combined the following components. 1. Development of a methodology for contingency screening using a homotopy method based on Lyapunov functions and real-time data. 2. Development of a methodology for recommending remedial actions based on the screening results. 3. Development of a visualization and operator interaction interface. 4. Testing of screening tool, validation of control actions, and demonstration of project outcomes on a representative real system simulated on a Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) cluster. The project was led by Michigan State University (MSU), where the theoretical models including homotopy-based screening, trajectory correction using real-time data, and remedial action were developed and implemented in the form of research-grade software. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) contributed to the development of energy margin sensitivity dynamics, which constituted a part of the remedial action portfolio. Florida State University (FSU) and Southern California Edison (SCE) developed a model of the SCE system that was implemented on FSU's RTDS cluster to simulate real-time data that was streamed over the internet to MSU where the L-RAS tool was executed and remedial actions were communicated back to FSU to execute stabilizing controls on the simulated system. LCG Consulting developed the visualization and operator interaction interface, based on specifications provided by MSU. The project was performed from October 2012 to December 2016, at the end of which the L-RAS tool, as described above, was completed and demonstrated. The project resulted in the following innovations and contributions: (a) the L-RAS software prototype, tested on a simulated system, vetted by utility personnel, and potentially ready for wider testing and commercialization; (b) an RTDS-based test bed that can be used for future research in the field; (c) a suite of breakthrough theoretical contributions to the field of power system stability and control; and (d) a new tool for visualization of power system stability margins. While detailed descriptions of the development and implementation of the various project components have been provided in the quarterly reports, this final report provides an overview of the complete project, and is demonstrated using public domain test systems commonly used in the literature. The SCE system, and demonstrations thereon, are not included in this report due to Critical Energy Infrastructure Information (CEII) restrictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seismic Contingency Auto Generator

This code takes in premade earthquake scenario XML files from USGS, power grid data, and converts them into a contingency file (.con file) that can be used by power grid solvers. Within the .con file are a number (Specified by the user) of contingencies that have randomly failed power transformers based on their likelihood of failure and peak ground acceleration (PGA) value around the transformer. The transformers' likelihood of failure was calculated based on a variety of finite element modeling on various transformer designed for specific transformer voltage classes. Parameters from these FEM were used to create generic fragility curves for transformers within a specific voltage class, which correspond with earthquake PGA values to produced a probability of failure for a given earthquake scenario. More refined versions of this process, such as specifying specific transformer design categories within a voltage class, could also be applied in future iterations of the software.

Vaagensmith, Bjorn [Idaho National Laboratory (INL↗

Measuring and Simulating T1 and T2 for Qubits

Quantum computers perform computations exploiting quantum mechanics to a possible advantage, allowing us to prepare and manipulate states that do not have a classical equivalent. In particular, phenomena like superposition and entanglement may enable quantum computers to outperform their classical counterparts in certain applications. Implementing these useful quantum algorithms is contingent upon building accurate quantum hardware that is not affected by noise. Environmental noise decreases coherence time of qubits, meaning that qubits do not stay in a desired state long enough to carry out a complex computation. To that end, harnessing the full power of quantum computers necessitate characterization of noise sources and how they impact a given quantum system. Often times, T1and T2 are used to quantify noise. In this project, we provide an approach as to how T1 and T2 values are calculated and simulated for quantum systems. In addition, we compare simulated values of T1 and T2 with those of real quantum computer’s measurements. IBMQ Experience, an open source software allowing users to simulate and use real quantum hardware, is used. QuTip, a Python-based toolbox offering quantum simulation tools for open quantum systems, is also used.

Youssef, Rahaf↗

Using Eye-Tracking to Quantify Reverse Engineering Expertise

Software reverse engineering (RE) requires analysts to closely read and make decisions about code. Little is known about what makes an analyst successful, making it difficult to train new analysts or design tools to augment existing ones. The goal of this project was to quantify the eye movement behaviors supporting RE and code comprehension more generally. We applied eye-tracking methods from the language comprehension literature to understand where analysts direct their attention over time when completing tasks (e.g., function identification, bug detection). Across three studies, we manipulated aspects of code hypothesized to impact comprehension (e.g., variable name meaningfulness, code complexity) and presentation methods (e.g., line-by-line, free viewing, gaze-contingent moving window) to understand effects on accuracy and gaze patterns. Results showed clear benefits of meaningful variable names, and effects of expertise on global and line-specific viewing patterns. Findings could inspire empirically-supported tool or analytic adaptations that help to reduce analyst workload.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Implementation Aspects of Smart Grids Cyber-Security Cross-Layered Framework for Critical Infrastructure Operation

Communication networks in power systems are a major part of the smart grid paradigm. It enables and facilitates the automation of power grid operation as well as self-healing in contingencies. Such dependencies on communication networks, though, create a roam for cyber-threats. An adversary can launch an attack on the communication network, which in turn reflects on power grid operation. Attacks could be in the form of false data injection into system measurements, flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data, or intercepting messages. Using machine learning-based processing on data gathered from communication networks and the power grid is a promising solution for detecting cyber threats. In this paper, a co-simulation of cyber-security for cross-layer strategy is presented. The advantage of such a framework is the augmentation of valuable data that enhances the detection as well as identification of anomalies in the operation of the power grid. The framework is implemented on the IEEE 118-bus system. The system is constructed in Mininet to simulate a communication network and obtain data for analysis. A distributed three controller software-defined networking (SDN) framework is proposed that utilizes the Open Network Operating System (ONOS) cluster. According to the findings of our suggested architecture, it outperforms a single SDN controller framework by a factor of more than ten times the throughput. This provides for a higher flow of data throughout the network while decreasing congestion caused by a single controller’s processing restrictions. Furthermore, our CECD-AS approach outperforms state-of-the-art physics and machine learning-based techniques in terms of attack classification. The performance of the framework is investigated under various types of communication attacks.

cross-layered↗

Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool

The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) is an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power system planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. Outputs from the DCAT will help find mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. The current prototype DCAT implementation has been developed as a Python code that accesses the simulation functions of the Siemens PSS/E planning tool (PSS/E). It has the following features: It uses a hybrid dynamic and steady-state approach to simulating the cascading outage sequences that includes fast dynamic and slower steady-state events. It integrates dynamic models with protection scheme models for generation, transmission, and load. It models special protection systems (SPSs)/remedial action schemes (RASs) and automatic and manual corrective actions. Overall, the DCAT attempts to bridge multiple gaps in cascading-outage analysis in a single, unique prototype tool capable of automatically simulating and analyzing cascading sequences in real systems using multiprocessor computers. While the DCAT has been implemented using PSS/E in Phase I of the study, other commercial software packages with similar capabilities can be used within the DCAT framework.

Source record↗

The application of ICASPA to critical and safe mass calculations - 14586

ICASPA, an Improved Critical and Safe Parameters Algorithm, calculates the size of a fissile body for a given value of k-effective. ICASPA uses an iterative predictor/corrector algorithm in which the MONK9A code is used to derive a precise k-effective value for a given candidate body size; auxiliary equations are then used to adjust the body size. The process is repeated until MONK9A outputs the chosen target value of k-effective. EDF Energy operates eight nuclear power stations comprising one Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) and seven Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) stations. At these sites, the term 'fuel route' is used to encompass all of the ex-reactor arrangements for the handling and storage of fuel. The criticality safety cases for these fuel routes are based on the use of geometrically safe arrangements for the required quantities of fuel. The allowed quantities and arrangements of fuel are safely sub-critical, even under the contingency of accidental moderator ingress. The fuel route safety cases consider all credible potential fault conditions, including events such as dropped fuel. Any such events might change the geometry of the fuel elements, but it is difficult to calculate exact k-effective values for realistic models of dropped fuel. This difficulty is overcome by the use of an alternative approach in which limiting safe masses are calculated for bounding (worst-case) rearrangements of fuel rods and moderators, using geometries similar to those covered by criticality handbook data. Where required, the resulting safe masses are used to set safety case limits and conditions. For example, some fire extinguishants, such as water and ABC dry powder, are also effective moderators. Hence, in some fuel route areas, administrative criticality controls are used to either prohibit or limit the permitted quantities of these materials. This paper describes the work that has been carried out to adopt ICASPA as the approved calculation method for these safe mass calculations. The work has been carried out within the company quality assurance requirements for nuclear safety related software. It has involved the development of a configuration controlled version of ICASPA and the local verification and validation of the resulting code. The benefits from the adoption of ICASPA are also presented. These include accuracy improvements and, because the method uses the MONK9A code for k-effective calculations, the ability to use more sophisticated models for limiting case geometries. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DINGO: Digital assistant to grid operators for resilience management of power distribution system

With increasing adverse weather events and disasters, enabling resiliency of the power distribution system (PDS) is becoming increasingly important. Here in this work, resiliency is defined as the systems ability to keep supplying critical loads even with multiple contingencies. Resiliency may depend on: (a) advanced tools to assist operators in situational awareness and decision making with the increasing volume of data generated by the PDS, (b) visualization and ease of interaction with system resources and information, especially during extreme events and resulting human operator stress, and (c) flexible resources and autonomous control. Operators and support engineers need to interact with the system for key information and take action under stress, given the requirement for decisions in a short time. Integrated technological solutions are prevailing steps to support the most appropriate decision during critical times to serve essential loads. In order to meet the required goals, a Real-time Resiliency Monitoring and Operational Decision Support (RT-RMOD) tool have been developed. It supports various functionalities, including real-time monitoring, resilience assessment, and proactive decision support. However, this work makes advanced feature additions to the tool by developing data-enabled resilience management algorithms for (i) outage detection and localization, (ii) Resiliency-metric driven restoration and reconfiguration, and (iii) NLP based digital assistant for operators called DINGO (DIgital assistaNt to Grid Operators) to interact with Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) and RT-RMOD. The developed algorithm was validated for multiple cases of weather events using a real-world, off-grid microgrid system modeled in a real-time simulator, sensor data, and software tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

sUAS Support for Mars 2020

The release of airborne radioactive material presents a health risk hazard to many individuals, including emergency responders and the public. Characterizing the unknown radioactive dangers produced during such incidents is essential. An advantage to utilizing unmanned aerial systems in this effort is the reduction of risk to personnel otherwise tasked with characterization, as well as more quickly obtaining data points during cloud immersion. By pairing a continuous air monitor (CAM) and detector with a drone, quantification of unknown material in the plume can be determined, and thus the extent of dose to people in the area can be estimated. A small, low-flow air sampler with a Geiger-Mueller counter may be characterized using experimental measurements of point sources representing a cloud of material and modelled using the Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code (MCNP), a software package for simulating nuclear processes, to find the usefulness and advantages of the system for detection of nuclides of concern in various nuclear plume scenarios. The flying time of small-unmanned aircraft systems (sUASs) is limited; thus, the minimum detectable activity and concentration rates possible must be determined over the system’s window of operation. While the activity concentrations corresponding to external and internal doses of concern can be detected with certainty for 90 Sr and 137 Cs in a plume, those corresponding to 238 Pu are more difficult to detect. The central principle of employing the sUAS is that the cockpit does not have an operator onboard the aircraft; therefore, control of the aircraft must take place by other means. With a sUAS, command and control can be separated into three distinct methods: (1) ground control or remote piloting, (2) semi-autonomous control, and (3) autonomous control. The isotope 238 Pu is used in the space industry, providing long-lived heat generation for fuel in outer space (NASA 2014). Due to the inherent risks with rocket launches to get objects into space, monitoring for release of these hazardous substances is a major undertaking. The current means is through employment of environmental CAMs. It is conceivable, however, that drone monitoring for release of 238 Pu in the event of a space launch mishap would give a greater chance of detection of plutonium particulate, because the particulate’s diffusion in air upon settling to the ground would make the probability of collecting a particle on a filter in a CAM very low.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗