Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “continuous time system estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding activity engagement across weekdays and weekend days: A multivariate multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach

This paper is motivated by the increasing recognition that modeling activity-travel demand for a single day of the week, as is done in virtually all travel forecasting models, may be inadequate in capturing underlying processes that govern activity-travel scheduling behavior. The considerable variability in daily travel suggests that there are important complementary relationships and competing tradeoffs involved in scheduling and allocating time to various activities across days of the week. Both limited survey data availability and methodological challenges in modeling week-long activity-travel schedules have precluded the development of multi-day activity-travel demand models. With passive and technology-based data collection methods increasingly in vogue, the collection of multi-day travel data may become increasingly commonplace in the years ahead. This paper addresses the methodological challenge associated with modeling multi-day activity-travel demand by formulating a multivariate multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) model system. The comprehensive framework ties together two MDCP model components, one corresponding to weekday time allocation and the other to weekend activity-time allocation. By tying the two MDCP components together, the model system also captures relationships in activity-time allocation between weekdays on the one hand and weekend days on the other. Model estimation on a week-long travel diary data set from the United Kingdom shows that there are significant inter-relationships between weekdays and weekend days in activity-travel scheduling behavior. In conclusion, the model system presented in this paper may serve as a higher-level multi-day activity scheduler in conjunction with existing daily activity-based travel models.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Single-shot Quantum Signal Processing Interferometry

Quantum systems of infinite dimension, such as bosonic oscillators, provide vast resources for quantum sensing. Yet, a general theory on how to manipulate such bosonic modes for sensing beyond parameter estimation is unknown. We present a general algorithmic framework, quantum signal processing interferometry (QSPI), for quantum sensing at the fundamental limits of quantum mechanics by generalizing Ramsey-type interferometry. Our QSPI sensing protocol relies on performing nonlinear polynomial transformations on the oscillator's quadrature operators by generalizing quantum signal processing (QSP) from qubits to hybrid qubit-oscillator systems. We use our QSPI sensing framework to make efficient binary decisions on a displacement channel in the single-shot limit. Theoretical analysis suggests the sensing accuracy, given a single-shot qubit measurement, scales inversely with the sensing time or circuit depth of the algorithm. We further concatenate a series of such binary decisions to perform parameter estimation in a bit-by-bit fashion. Numerical simulations are performed to support these statements. Our QSPI protocol offers a unified framework for quantum sensing using continuous-variable bosonic systems beyond parameter estimation and establishes a promising avenue toward efficient and scalable quantum control and quantum sensing schemes beyond the NISQ era.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation through Machine-Learning Procedure

Traffic volume data is one of the most important metrics for accurate assessment of the performance of a transportation system. Quality volume data is required to effectively assess extent of delay and congestion, detect real-time perturbations to the network, and understand traffic patterns during major weather events. Traffic volume on freeways are typically collected through continuous count stations installed by state DOTs, while there is lack of traffic volume observability on off-freeway roads. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Collaboration with the I-95 Corridor Coalition and the University of Maryland, extended its research into estimating volumes anywhere anytime from industry probe based data for off-freeway roads. NREL combined vehicle probe count data with several other data sets (speed, whether, roadway geometry, time-of-day, day-of-week, etc.) to estimate hourly volumes as well as AADTs. The research validated and demonstrated the machine learning model, namely XGBoost, using data collected from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pulsar-Calibrated Timing Source for Synchronized Sampling

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is critical to the real-time synchronized sampling of phasor measurement units (PMUs). Unfortunately, GPS signals are occasionally unstable due to several factors such as weak satellite signal and GPS spoofing, thereby leaving the PMU with a degraded sampling performance. In this letter, a novel Pulsar-calibrated Timing Source (PTS) is proposed as the alternative timing source for synchronized sampling. Further, the PTS can generate the timing signal with a 1 μs drift error within 91 holdover minutes to ensure continuity of sampling accuracy. Experimental tests are conducted and the results reveal the reliability and accuracy of the PTS for PMU synchronization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Well-posedness of the Cauchy problem for the stochastic system for the Lorenz model for a baroclinic atmosphere

The paper is concerned with the Cauchy problem for a nonlinear system of partial differential equations with parameters. This system describes the two-layer quasi-solenoidal Lorenz model for a baroclinic atmosphere on a rotating two-dimensional sphere. The right-hand side of the system is perturbed by white noise, and random initial data is considered. This system is shown to be uniquely solvable, and an estimate for the continuous dependence of the solution on the set of random initial data and the right-hand side is established on a finite time interval. In passing, an estimate for the continuous dependence on the set of parameters, the initial data, and the right-hand side is obtained on a finite time interval for the solution of the Cauchy problem with deterministic initial data and deterministic right-hand side. Bibliography: 32 titles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Component Reliability in Photovoltaic Systems using Field Failure Statistics

Ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) are needed to ensure photovoltaic (PV) systems continue to operate and meet production targets over the lifecycle of the system. Although average costs to operate and maintain PV systems have been decreasing over time, reported costs can vary significantly at the plant level. Estimating O&M costs accurately is important for informing financial planning and tracking activities, and subsequently lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV systems. This report describes a methodology for improving O&M planning estimates by using empirically-derived failure statistics to capture component reliability in the field. The report also summarizes failure patterns observed for specific PV components and local environmental conditions observed in Sandia's PV Reliability, Operations & Maintenance (PVROM) database, a collection of field records across 800+ systems in the U.S. Where system-specific or fleet-specific data are lacking, PVROM-derived failure distribution values can be used to inform cost modeling and other reliability analyses to evaluate opportunities for performance improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conservation of Helium while Maintaining High System Purity

Recent helium shortages and helium price increases have lead to an increased emphasis being placed on conserving helium. The need to conserve helium must be balanced with need to maintain the high levels of purity necessary to prevent operational problems caused by contamination. Helium losses and contamination control are especially important for test stands that have cryogenic distribution systems operating continuously with frequent changeover of cryogenic temperature components that are being tested. This paper describes a mathematical model to estimate the quantity of helium lost and the purity of the helium after the pump and backfill procedure is complete. The process to determine the optimal time during pump down to cut off pumping and start backfilling is described. There is a tradeoff between trying to achieve the lowest possible pressure during pumping and the quantity of air leaking into the volume while pumping is occurring. An additional benefit of careful selection of pump and backfill parameters in conjunction with real-time pressure monitoring can reduce the labor and time required to complete a successful pump and backfill procedure. This paper is intended to be a tool for engineers to review their pump and backfill procedures and measured data to optimize helium losses, system purity, and labor required.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conservation of Helium while Maintaining High System Purity

Recent helium shortages and helium price increases have lead to an increased emphasis being placed on conserving helium. The need to conserve helium must be balanced with need to maintain the high levels of purity necessary to prevent operational problems caused by contamination. Helium losses and contamination control are especially important for test stands that have cryogenic distribution systems operating continuously with frequent changeover of cryogenic temperature components that are being tested. This paper describes a mathematical model to estimate the quantity of helium lost and the purity of the helium after the pump and backfill procedure is complete. The process to determine the optimal time during pump down to cut off pumping and start backfilling is described. There is a tradeoff between trying to achieve the lowest possible pressure during pumping and the quantity of air leaking into the volume while pumping is occurring. An additional benefit of careful sel ection of pump and backfill parameters in conjunction with real-time pressure monitoring can reduce the labor and time required to complete a successful pump and backfill procedure. This paper is intended to be a tool for engineers to review their pump and backfill procedures and measured data to optimize helium losses, system purity, and labor required.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A phase model approach for thermostatically controlled load demand response

A significant portion of electricity consumed worldwide is used to power thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and water heaters. Because the short-term timing of operation of such systems is inconsequential as long as their long-run average power consumption is maintained, they are increasingly used in demand response (DR) programs to balance supply and demand on the power grid. Here, we present an ab initio phase model for general TCLs, and use the concept to develop a continuous oscillator model of a TCL and compute its phase response to changes in temperature and applied power. This yields a simple control system model that can be used to evaluate control policies for modulating the power consumption of aggregated loads with parameter heterogeneity and stochastic drift. We demonstrate this concept by comparing simulations of ensembles of heterogeneous loads using the continuous state model and an established hybrid state model. The developed phase model approach is a novel means of evaluating DR provision using TCLs, and is instrumental in estimating the capacity of ancillary services or DR on different time scales. We further propose a novel phase response based open-loop control policy that effectively modulates the aggregate power of a heterogeneous TCL population while maintaining load diversity and minimizing power overshoots. This is demonstrated by low-error tracking of a regulation signal by filtering it into frequency bands and using TCL sub-ensembles with duty cycles in corresponding ranges. As a result, control policies that can maintain a uniform distribution of power consumption by aggregated heterogeneous loads will enable distribution system management (DSM) approaches that maintain stability as well as power quality, and further allow more integration of renewable energy sources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Relationship of Imaging Frequency and Planning Margin to Account for Intrafraction Prostate Motion: Analysis Based on Real-Time Monitoring Data

Purpose: Correction for intrafraction prostate motion becomes important for hypofraction treatment of prostate cancer. The purpose of this study was to estimate an ideal planning margin to account for intrafraction prostate motion as a function of imaging and repositioning frequency in the absence of continuous prostate motion monitoring. Methods and Materials: For 31 patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment, prostate positions sampled at 10 Hz during treatment using the Calypso system were analyzed. Using these data, we simulated multiple, less frequent imaging protocols, including intervals of every 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 180, and 240 seconds. For each imaging protocol, the prostate displacement at the imaging time was corrected by subtracting prostate shifts from the subsequent displacements in that fraction. Furthermore, we conducted a principal component analysis to quantify the direction of prostate motion. Results: Averaging histograms of every 240 and 60 seconds for all patients, vector displacements of the prostate were, respectively, within 3 and 2 mm for 95% of the treatment time. A vector margin of 1 mm achieved 91.2% coverage of the prostate with 30 second imaging. The principal component analysis for all fractions showed the largest variance in prostate position in the midsagittal plane at 54° from the anterior direction, indicating that anterosuperior to inferoposterior is the direction of greatest motion. The smallest prostate motion is in the left-right direction. Conclusions: The magnitudes of intrafraction prostate motion along the superior-inferior and anterior-posterior directions are comparable, and the smallest motion is in the left-right direction. In the absence of continuous prostate motion monitoring, and under ideal circumstances, 1-, 2-, and 3-mm vector planning margins require a respective imaging frequency of every 15, 60, and 240 to account for intrafraction prostate motion while achieving adequate geometric target coverage for 95% of the time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Continuous-time Monte Carlo renormalization group

We implement the Monte Carlo renormalization group approach in the continuous-time Monte Carlo simulation of a quantum system. In this work, we demonstrate numerically the emergent isotropy between space and time at large distances for the systems that exhibit Lorentz invariance at quantum criticality. Here, this allows us to estimate accurately the sound velocity for these quantum systems. $\textit{Q}$-state Potts models in one and two space dimensions are used to illustrate the method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Observation and analysis of emergent coherent structures in a high-energy-density shock-driven planar mixing layer experiment

Coherent emergent structures have been observed in a high-energy-density supersonic mixing layer experiment. A millimeter-scale shock tube uses lasers to drive Mbar shocks into the tube volume. The shocks are driven into initially solid foam (60 mg/cm 3 ) hemicylinders separated by an Al or Ti metal tracer strip; the components are vaporized by the drive. Before the experiment disassembles, the shocks cross at the tube center, creating a very fast (ΔU > 200 km/s) shear-unstable zone. After several nanoseconds, an expanding mixing layer is measured, and after 10+ ns we observe the appearance of streamwise-periodic, spanwise-aligned rollers associated with the primary Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of mixing layers. We additionally image roller pairing and spanwise-periodic streamwise-aligned filaments associated with secondary instabilities. New closures are derived to connect length scales of these structures to estimates of fluctuating velocity data otherwise unobtainable in the high-energy-density environment. Finally, this analysis indicates shear-induced specific turbulent energies 10 3 – 10 4 times higher than the nearest conventional experiments. Because of difficulties in continuously driving systems under these conditions and the harshness of the experimental environment limiting the usable diagnostics, clear evidence of these developing structures has never before been observed in this regime.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-scale temperature-based strategy to map hydrologic exchange flows in highly dynamic systems

Mapping and quantifying hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) is critical to environmental monitoring and remediation at contaminated sites; however, these objectives are challenging in highly dynamic systems, e.g., along dam-regulated rivers, where HEFs vary rapidly. Direct seepage measurements are labor-intensive and difficult to automate, whereas indirect (e.g., thermal) and remote sensing methods have potential to allow continuous monitoring with limited field effort. We present a preliminary assessment of a multi-scale temperature-based strategy for monitoring HEFs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River, in eastern WA, United States. Five thermal methods were assessed. First, a vertical temperature profile (VTP) was installed into the streambed. The VTP data were analyzed using a data assimilation algorithm designed for automated real-time estimation in dynamic systems. Second, a thermal infrared (TIR) camera was used in roving surveys to identify seeps. Third, a TIR camera was stationed at the VTP site to collect images at 1-h intervals. Together, the two TIR datasets provided a basis to assess the potential for drone-based TIR. Fourth, temperature was measured at the sediment/water interface to assess fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. Fifth, imagery from the ECOSTRESS satellite mission was acquired to assess the potential of spaceborne thermal monitoring. Based on our preliminary assessment, VTP, TIR, and bed temperature measurements provide complementary spatial coverage, temporal sampling, and resolution; these methods have potential for long-term, automated monitoring of HEFs. The publicly available spaceborne imagery, however, proved inadequate because of insufficient spatial resolution and data gaps resulting from cloud cover and revisit frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and testing of a continuous maritime monitor for radionuclide aerosols

Monitoring airborne concentrations of radionuclide activity may provide a timely warning to sea-based assets to avoid contamination from a radioactive plume. The development and testing of an automated aerosol monitoring system that can capture and detect radioactive particulate from marine air is presented. A custom electrostatic precipitator (ESP) was designed to capture particulate onto a reusable collection media. The collection efficiency of the ESP system for radon progeny was determined to be ~23%. A conservative calculation of the minimum detectable concentration of 214 Bi was estimated as 0.3-8 Bq/m 3 . The system was demonstrated in continuous operation, without consumables and limited maintenance, in a marine environment at the PNNL campus in Sequim, Washington. In conclusion, a successful 2-month deployment indicates the feasibility of the approach for continuous maritime monitoring for radionuclide aerosols.

Moore, Michael E. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗