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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Cost of Onshore CO2 Pipeline Transport and Onshore CO2 Saline Storage

This paper describes the FECM/NETL CO2 Transport Cost Model (CO2_T_COM), a technoeconomic model of CO2 transport by pipeline, and the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM), a technoeconomic model of storage of CO2 in a deep, subsurface saline formation. The results of applying CO2_T_COM to calculate break-even CO2 prices to transport CO2 at different mass flow rates and different distances are presented. Similarly, CO2_S_COM is used to calculate the break-even CO2 price for storing CO2 in 314 potential storage formations across the US. These break-even prices are used to construct cost-supply curves for CO2 storage which are presented on a national and regional basis. CO2_T_COM and CO2_S_COM are the most comprehensive open source technoeconomic models available for analyzing CO2 pipeline transport and CO2 saline storage. To be presented at the SPE?AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Morgan, David↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cost of Offshore Wind Energy in the United States From 2025 to 2050

This study presents estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy throughout major U.S. coastal regions between a time frame of 2025 - 2050. The LCOE modeling accounts for impacts of supply chain shocks, inflation, and rising interest rates on cost. Given the near-term uncertainty in these factors, we present three possible scenarios driven by how uncertainty in costs, technology, and deployment may evolve over time. The cost increases reported by industry in recent years will likely be felt over next several years, but we expect long-term cost reductions enabled by growing offshore wind deployment and industry learning. This study helps inform decision-makers about the potential role that offshore wind energy can play in future clean energy strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Life-Cycle Cost and Optimization of PV Systems Based on Power Duration Curve with Variable Performance Ratio and Availability

A new derivation of Power Duration Curve is presented and applied to analysis of photovoltaic system life cycle cost. The effect of non-unity Performance Ratio and non-unity Availability on the power duration curve are illustrated. The effect of these two key performance indicators on calculation of life cycle cost and PV system design optimization (optimal DC/AC ratio) are illustrated as example applications of the method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Availability Estimates of Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity (LDE)

This dataset accompanies the report "Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity", which provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) resource in the United States under scenarios with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetrations. The analysis also estimates supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. The estimated LDE resource could be used for various applications that value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors, including electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. The analysis accompanying this dataset was performed in 2018-2019 to support an analysis of "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States" ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77610.pdf ). This dataset includes the quantity of estimated LDE resource for each hour of the year in 2050, aggregated to both the national level and the ReEDS balancing area level. As described in the accompanying report, the ReEDS model was used to project the evolution of the power sector over time. Links to the mapping of ReEDS balancing areas to states and ReEDS balancing area shape files are provided. This dataset also includes the report figure data.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Melt Curves of Energetic Materials Using Molecular Models

Here, in this work, the solid–liquid coexistence curves of classical fully flexible atomistic models of α-RDX and β-HMX were calculated using thermodynamically rigorous methodologies that identify where the free energy difference between the phases is zero. The free energy difference between each phase at a given state point was computed using the pseudosupercritical path (PSCP) method, and Gibbs–Helmholtz integration was used to evaluate the solid–liquid free energy difference as a function of temperature. This procedure was repeated for several pressures to determine points along the coexistence curve, which were then fit to the Simon–Glatzel functional form. While effective, this method is computationally expensive. An alternative approach is to compute the melting point at a single pressure via the PSCP method, and then use the Gibbs–Duhem integration technique to trace out the coexistence curve in a more computationally economical manner. Both approaches were used to determine the coexistence curve of α-RDX. The Gibbs–Duhem integration method was shown to generate a melt curve that is in good agreement with the PSCP-derived melt curve, while only costing ~10 % of the computational resources used for the PSCP method. For α-RDX, the predicted melting temperature increases significantly more for a given increase in pressure when compared to available experimental data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Could on-site fuel storage economically reduce power plant-gas grid dependence in pipeline constrained areas like New England?

In the Northeastern United States, natural gas supply constraints have led to periods when gas shortages have caused up to a quarter of all unscheduled power plant outages. Dual fuel oil/gas generators or local gas storage might mitigate gas supply shortages. We use historical power plant operational and availability data to develop a supply curve of the costs required for generators to mitigate fuel shortage failures in New England. Based on 2012–2018 data, we find that the historical fuel shortages at approximately 2 GW worth of gas-fired capacity could be mitigated using on-site fuel storage. For comparison, New England’s average reserve margin was 1.7–2.8 GW over our sample period. Oil dual fuel plants would recoup their investment if compensated with a reliability adder of $\$ 3-7$/MWh during their normal operations, while $\$ 7-16$/MWh would incentivize using onsite, compressed natural gas storage. We estimate that the capital expenses associated with the fuel storage options would be less expensive than installing battery backup for resource adequacy at current battery prices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prototype Development for MBSE-Driven Digital Environment at Fermilab

Complex projects like Fermilab s accelerators and detectors involve thousands of interdependent components and requirements, making traditional documentation hard to keep consistent and often causing rework. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tackles this by representing the system as a digital, queryable model. While widely used in aerospace and safety-critical industries, MBSE adoption has been limited elsewhere due to steep learning curves and high costs. This project investigates how a web-first, low-code MBSE stack can reduce those barriers and offer an accessible, unified source of truth for engineers and physicists.

Valle, Diego Pedro (ORCID:0009000865900663)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Considerations for Large-Scale Carbon Removal in the United States

The Biden Administration has established a goal of removing 1 Gt carbon dioxide equivalents per year (CO 2e /yr) from the atmosphere and of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Our team of leading academic and DOE national laboratory experts is conducting the first economy-wide technical evaluation of the options for achieving this carbon dioxide removal (CDR) goal. The net zero goal includes targets of 100% clean electricity by 2035 with 40% GHG emissions reductions by 2030, which helps set primary scenario boundaries for our analysis of the CDR supply curve. Our analysis will evaluate feasibility, performance, and costs on a county level for the entire USA (including AK and HI where possible), considering all removal methods that are currently well-enough developed for us to estimate the likely costs in 2050. We anticipate that more than 1 Gt CO 2e of removal will be available to the Nation. We will identify how much of each CO 2 removal approach is available in specific regions of the Nation and provide cumulative costs and volumes (a supply curve) by region for 2050. We expect to complete this detailed analysis by late 2023.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bidding Curve Design for Hybrid Power Plants with Uncertain Solar Forecast

This paper presents a novel bidding curve design algorithm tailored for hybrid power plants (HPPs) to participate in the wholesale electricity market. Utilizing forecasts for photovoltaic (PV) generation and available battery power, our algorithm strategically computes the bidding curve to maximize HPP profit while adeptly managing the inherent uncertainty associated with PV power generation. In addition, the introduction of the penalty cost in HPP bidding curves provides the system operator a tool to effectively manage the system-level uncertainty that caused by HPPs. Numerical analysis through Monte Carlo simulations confirms that our bidding curve methodology outperforms the benchmark across various scenarios.

bidding curve↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bidding Curve Design for Hybrid Power Plants with Uncertain Solar Forecast: Preprint

This paper presents a novel bidding curve design algorithm tailored for hybrid power plants (HPPs) to participate in the wholesale electricity market. Utilizing forecasts for photovoltaic (PV) generation and available battery power, our algorithm strategically computes the bidding curve to maximize HPP profit while adeptly managing the inherent uncertainty associated with PV power generation. In addition, the introduction of the penalty cost in HPP bidding curves provides the system operator a tool to effectively manage the system-level uncertainty that caused by HPPs. Numerical analysis through Monte Carlo simulations confirms that our bidding curve methodology outperforms the benchmark across various scenarios.

bidding curve↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatially Accelerated Winding Numbers for Curved Geometry

The generalized winding number (GWN) is a scalar field that supports robust containment queries on curved geometry, including non-watertight, overlapping, and nested boundary representations. While queries can be easily parallelized over samples, direct evaluation on parametric curves and surfaces remains costly for large and complex models. Fast, state-of-the-art GWN approaches leverage a spatial index to approximate the GWN, typically coupled with a Taylor expansion which approximates the GWN contribution for far clusters of geometric primitives. However, such methods operate only on discrete inputs such as triangle meshes and point clouds, and would introduce containment errors near boundaries if applied to curved input. We extend support for fast GWN evaluation over arbitrary collections of NURBS curves in 2D and trimmed NURBS patches in 3D via a Bounding Volume Hierarchy that stores efficiently precomputed moment data in the hierarchy nodes. When querying the hierarchy, approximations for far clusters are used alongside direct evaluation for nearby NURBS primitives, achieving sub-linear complexity while preserving the geometric features in the vicinity of the query point. Central to our performance improvements is an adaptive subdivision strategy for NURBS primitives during a preprocessing phase, creating better spatial partitions while retaining the same accuracy for containment decisions as a direct evaluation. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy of our approach across a large collection of 2D and 3D datasets.

Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Do Mandates Deliver Cost Reductions for Energy Storage?

In 2013, California implemented a mandate directing the state’s investor-owned utilities to procure 1325 MW of energy storage, to help integrate nondispatchable renewable sources of energy and assist the state in meeting its environmental goals. This paper evaluates this policy’s impact of both battery deployment, and cost, finding that as of 2019, the state was effective in spurring nearly 500 MWh of battery storage deployment over what would have been installed in absence of the policy. This additive deployment would have the effect of reducing global battery cell costs by roughly $1.00/ kWh, based on learning by doing. To support these findings, we utilize both a difference in differences estimation, and a synthetic control analysis, both of which allow us to compare battery deployment in California, to deployment in other states. To pair deployment to cost reduction, we use a learning curve analysis, which links battery shipments to cell and storage block costs. For policymakers, these results provide evidence to the effectiveness of mandates in promoting storage deployment and help explain how these policies can induce downstream effects.

Boff, Daniel S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

MW-Class SOFC Pilot System Development

The overall objective of this project is to develop a low-cost, efficient, and reliable MWe-class Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) power system towards commercial deployment in natural-gas fueled distributed generation applications. This report details the successful completion of all project objectives. The main goals of the project were to develop the conceptual design of a MWe-class SOFC power system, and to complete a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to determine system costs at low-volume production levels of >100MW per year. The combination of the BoP equipment cost and SOFC stack module factory cost provided the net fabrication cost of the selected 1MW SOFC system configuration. The results of the study showed that the cost target of less than $6000/kW is achievable for a FOAK 1MW SOFC system, exclusive of the first-time engineering cost. Also, the project included an exploratory analysis of the factory cost of next generation stack technology based on the Compact Solid-oxide Architecture (CSA) design at a high annual manufacturing rate of one-GW produced in a giga-factory. The BoP capital cost for one giga-watt power production was estimated using learning-curve analysis based on the historical manufacturing cost data related to similar high temperature Molten Carbonate fuel cell systems built by FuelCell Energy (FCE). The giga-factory manufactured SOFC cost estimate combined with the BoP cost at high production rates led to the estimation of entire system capital cost. Ultimately, a Cost of Electricity (COE) analysis was performed including natural gas fuel prices, installation and O&M costs, and stack replacement cost. The results of the techno-economic analysis were summarized by parametric estimation of COE for 1MW SOFC NOAK (Nth-of-a-Kind) system with natural gas prices as a variable parameter.

08 HYDROGEN↗