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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-assisted upscaling analysis of reservoir rock core properties based on micro-computed tomography imagery

Optimum solutions for geologic modeling and reservoir simulation in industries such as oil and gas recovery and carbon capture and storage require accurate characterization of reservoir properties, which are often heterogeneous. In this study, high-quality micro-computed tomography (CT) images (1.475-μm/pixel resolution) of a sandstone core acquired from the Bell Creek oil field, USA, were used to provide nondestructive analysis of pore- and core-scale heterogeneity across measurement scales of 94–566 μm. In addition to characterizing the as-received sample, the core sample was flooded with brine to evaluate the capacity of the core sample to receive injected fluids. The micro-CT images were systematically segmented into pore spaces and grains via machine learning (ML) steps including image preprocessing, label creation using a traditional ML method based on limited manual image annotation, and finally U-Net segmentation. The segmented image stacks were reconstructed into digital cubes of various scales of voxel lengths. The 3D porosity values were calculated for all the digital cubes, and the fractal dimensions of the cubes were estimated using a box-counting method. The results showed that smaller cubes had greater heterogeneity and that the porosity values could be accurately estimated by fractal dimension and voxel lengths using ML models. For the core sample with brine flooding, the ratio of pores filled by brine to the total pore space was related to the porosity and could also be accurately estimated by porosity, fractal dimension, and voxel lengths using ML models. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate that the concept of fractal dimension can be a useful vector to perform upscaling analysis of sandstone rock heterogeneity from the pore to core scale and that fractal dimensions can be used to estimate porosity values and pore space-filling capacity across those scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultra diffuse galaxies in the MATLAS low-to-moderate density fields

Recent advances in deep dedicated imaging surveys over the past decade have uncovered a surprisingly large number of extremely faint low surface brightness galaxies with large physical sizes called ultra diffuse galaxies (UDGs) in clusters and, more recently, in lower density environments. As part of the Mass Assembly of early-Type GaLAxies with their fine Structures (MATLAS) survey, a deep imaging large program at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), our team has identified 2210 dwarf galaxies, 59 (~3%) of which qualify as UDGs. Averaging over the survey area, we find ~0.4 UDG per square degree. They are found in a range of low to moderate density environments, although 61% of the sample fall within the virial radii of groups. Based on a detailed analysis of their photometric and structural properties, we find that the MATLAS UDGs do not show significant differences from the traditional dwarfs, except from the predefined size and surface brightness cut. Their median color is as red as the one measured in galaxy clusters, albeit with a narrower color range. The majority of the UDGs are visually classified as dwarf ellipticals with log stellar masses of ~6.5 – 8.7. The fraction of nucleated UDGs (~34%) is roughly the same as the nucleated fraction of the traditional dwarfs. Only five (~8%) UDGs show signs of tidal disruption and only two are tidal dwarf galaxy candidates. A study of globular cluster (GC) candidates selected in the CFHT images finds no evidence of a higher GC specific frequency S N for UDGs than for classical dwarfs, contrary to what is found in most clusters. The UDG halo-to-stellar mass ratio distribution, as estimated from the GC counts, peaks at roughly the same value as for the traditional dwarfs, but spans the smaller range of ~10 – 2000. Finally, we interpret these results to mean that the large majority of the field-to-group UDGs do not have a different formation scenario than traditional dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A System for Standardizing and Combining U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Emissions and Waste Inventory Data

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) provides databases that agglomerate data provided by companies or states reporting emissions, releases, wastes generated, and other activities to meet statutory requirements. These databases, often referred to as inventories, can be used for a wide variety of environmental reporting and modeling purposes to characterize conditions in the United States. Yet, users are often challenged to find, retrieve, and interpret these data due to the unique schemes employed for data management, which could result in erroneous estimations or double-counting of emissions. To address these challenges, a system called Standardized Emission and Waste Inventories (StEWI) has been created. The system consists of four python modules that provide rapid access to USEPA inventory data in standard formats and permit filtering and combination of these inventory data. When accessed through StEWI, reported emissions of carbon dioxide to air and ammonia to water are reduced approximately two- and four-fold, respectively, to avoid duplicate reporting. StEWI will greatly facilitate the use of USEPA inventory data in chemical release and exposure modeling and life cycle assessment tools, among other things. To date, StEWI has been used to build the recent USEEIO model and the baseline electricity life cycle inventory database for the Federal LCA Commons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Image Classification Accuracy on Dasymetric Population Estimation

Dasymetric mapping involves the disaggregation of count data, usually relating to population/demographics, from census enumeration areas to smaller target zones with the aid of an ancillary layer related to population density. The ancillary layer is often a binary classification such as developed versus undeveloped, building versus non-building, and residential versus non-residential, in which one class is treated as populated and the other as unpopulated. While dasymetric mapping relies heavily on ancillary data, little research has been done to address the error in ancillary data and its effects on dasymetric mapping accuracy. This chapter reports our research effort to investigate the effect of image classification accuracy on dasymetric population estimates by developing a binomial classification of buildings from high-resolution remote sensor imagery. The classifier was systematically and iteratively manipulated to generate a series of outputs with variegated accuracy characteristics. Lastly, we generated a corresponding series of population estimates based on the mapped building area from each iteration to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of classification and population estimation.

McKee, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Automated Pipeline for Time-Resolved Link-Wise Vehicular Energy Consumption in the Chattanooga, TN Road Network

The Department of Energy (DOE) has shown strong interest in detecting energy inefficiencies in regional road networks, so as to derive energy consumed at a high spatial temporal resolution. We have developed a workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicular energy consumption over each link in a road network of interest. The road network used in the current work is centered around the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee and its bordering regions. Utilizing the most mature road network for the Chattanooga, TN region, vehicle speed & count data from TomTom in conjunction with machine learning methods, we have developed an automated pipeline to estimate energy consumption for every link in the network. The first step in the pipeline is ingesting vehicle probe counts and speed estimates from TomTom API. In the next step, the probe counts, speed profiles and other exogenous data (i.e. road types, weather data, ground-truth volume counts and more) were used as input to a supervised learning algorithm to estimate the number of vehicles throughout the entire region for each road segment. These volume estimates were then mapped to a unified road network that contained additional important information such as percentage change in gradient across a link, number of lanes and link lengths that are features in pre-trained single vehicle energy-consumption models available with the RouteE software developed at NREL. The per vehicle energy consumption on each road link predicted using appropriate RouteE vehicular models were multiplied by the volume estimate for the corresponding link over a given time period to predict energy consumed per link for the time interval of interest. Currently, work is underway to improve both the RouteE per vehicle energy estimate and the volume estimates derived from TomTom probe counts. We have also explored the correlation of the link-wise energy estimates with the features of the pre-trained RouteE machine learning model in order to gain insight into what factors contribute most to the link-wise energy consumption.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection efficiency of adult Pacific lamprey passage counts at Leaburg Dam and upstream distribution in the McKenzie River (Oregon, USA)

Abstract Adult Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) were counted using consistent methodology since 2005 with a video monitoring system as they passed Leaburg Dam (McKenzie River, Oregon, USA) en route to upstream spawning areas. In this study we evaluated the detection efficiency of the video system and upstream distribution of Pacific lamprey using the video counts of lamprey passage (herein, “dam counts”), passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and radio telemetry. In 2019–2020 we collected, tagged and tracked 32 adult lamprey (4 from the McKenzie River and 28 that were translocated from Willamette Falls). All fish were tagged and released into the tailrace of Leaburg Dam in June 2019. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife employees and volunteers from the local community conducted mobile radiotracking above and below the dam in drift boats (114 mainstem river kilometers) and on foot (several tributaries). The estimated detection efficiency for dam counts was 92% (95% confidence interval: 67%–99%). Fifty percent (16 of 32) of the tagged lamprey passed the dam, including 13 of 28 that were translocated. Thirty‐seven percent (6 of 16) of lamprey that passed Leaburg Dam were detected in a restored reach of the South Fork McKenzie, 32.6 river kilometers upstream of the dam.

Romer, Jeremy D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of natural gamma background radiation on portal monitor radioisotope unmixing

It is well known that national security relies on several layers of protection. One of the most important is the traffic control at borders and ports that exploits Radiation Portal Monitors (RPMs) to detect and deter potential smuggling attempts. Most portal monitors rely on plastic scintillators to detect gamma rays. Despite their poor energy resolution, their cost effectiveness and the possibility of growing them in large sizes make them the gamma-ray detector of choice in RPMs. Unmixing algorithms applied to organic scintillator spectra can be used to reliably identify the bare and unshielded radionuclides that triggered an alarm, even with fewer than 1000 detected counts and in the presence of two or three nuclides at the same time. In this work, we experimentally studied the robustness of a state-of-the-art unmixing algorithm to different radiation background spectra, due to varying atmospheric conditions, in the 16 °C to 28 °C temperature range. In the presence of background, the algorithm is able to identify the nuclides present in unknown radionuclide mixtures of three nuclides, when at least 1000 counts from the sources are detected. With fewer counts available, we found larger differences of approximately 35.9% between estimated nuclide fractions and actual ones. In these low count rate regimes, the uncertainty associated by our algorithm with the identified fractions could be an additional valuable tool to determine whether the identification is reliable or a longer measurement to increase the signal-to-noise ratio is needed. Moreover, the algorithm identification performances are consistent throughout different data sets, with negligible differences in the presence of background types of different intensity and spectral shape.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Effects of Vehicle Platoons on Crash Type and Severity

Crash type is an informative indicator to infer driving behaviors and conditions that cause a crash. For example, rear-end and side-swipe crashes are typically caused by improper vehicle interaction such as sudden lane-changing or speed control while hit-object crashes are likely the result of a single driver’s mistake. This study investigated the impact of vehicles travelling as a group (platoon) and its configuration (i.e., types of vehicles consisting of the platoon) on crash type and severity since the vehicles could affect each other when travelling in close proximity. This study applied Generalized Structure Equation Modeling (GSEM) to capture the complex relationships among the various crash factors such as traffic condition, driver characteristics, environmental conditions, and vehicle interaction to the crash attributes including type and severity. This study collected over 3 million individual vehicle data from 39 traffic count sites in California to estimate the vehicle interactions and driving behaviors. The microscopic traffic data are matched to 1417 crash reports. Results showed that vehicles traveling in platoons are associated with more rear-end and side-swipe crashes. Speed difference in the platoon had a positive effect on hit-object crashes if the platoon comprises vehicles of homogeneous type – either trucks or non-trucks. In addition, human factors such as age and gender were identified as significant influential factors in all type of crashes, however truck involvement particularly played an important role amongst side-swipe crashes. Crash severity was negatively affected by total flow, and rear-end crashes were more likely to be severe compared with hit-object crashes. Based on findings, this study suggests practical operational strategies to reduce traffic instability associated with platooned vehicle patterns. Understanding the high-risk factors for different crash types and severities would provide valuable insights for decision-makers and transportation engineers to develop targeted intervention strategies in consideration of road users and traffic conditions such as fleet mix and speed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cold neutron-deuteron capture and Wigner-SU(4) symmetry

We calculate the cold neutron-deuteron (nd) capture cross section,σ nd to next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO) using the model-independent approach of pionless effective-field theory [EFT(π)]. At leading order we find σ nd = 0.314 ± 0.217 mb, while the experimental result is 0.508(15) mb for a laboratory neutron velocity of 2200 m/s. At next-to-leading-order (NLO), we show that σnd is sensitive to the low-energy constant (LEC) $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ of the two-nucleon isovector current appearing at NLO. A fit of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ at NLO to the triton magnetic moment yields a NLO prediction of σ nd = 0.393 ± 0.164 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ fit. At NNLO, we find that a new three-nucleon magnetic moment counterterm is required for renormalization-group invariance of both σnd and the triton magnetic moment. Fitting the NNLO correction to $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ (denoted $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$) to cold neutron-proton capture (σnp) yields a NNLO prediction of σ nd = 0.447 ± 0.130 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ fit. We also study different fittings of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ and $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ to σ np , σ nd , and/or the triton magnetic moment. For example, fitting $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np , σ nd , and the triton magnetic moment at NLO, and fitting $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np and σnd at NNLO, yields σ nd = 0.480 ± 0.114 mb and 0.511 ± 0.042 mb, respectively, where errors are naively estimated from EFT(π) power counting. Additionally, we discuss how Wigner SU(4) symmetry may alter the naive EFT(π) expansion of σ nd .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generating traffic-based building occupancy schedules in Chattanooga, Tennessee from a grid of traffic sensors

Building occupancy significantly impacts energy use, timing for demand impacts, and is a significant source of uncertainty in building energy models. There are relatively few sources that define building occupancy schedules and number of occupants per building or space type. More importantly, these sources define traditional schedules that are likely not to reflect the true occupancy of a given building. We construct traffic-based occupancy schedules which are more responsive to changes in mobility patterns, and which can realistically estimate occupant arrivals, departures, and counts in individual buildings.

Berres, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2025

ORNLERASE - EPA COUNTS PER MINUTE CALCULATOR CONVERSION FACTORS

This database is used in the EPA's Superfund Counts Per Minute (CPM) Calculator (https://epa-cpm.ornl.gov/index.html). This database contains conversion factors used in the calculator that help users estimate the expected radiation detector reading, in counts per minute (CPM), corresponding to a measured radioactivity level reported in either pCi/cm² or pCi/g. Because surface contamination and volumetric contamination behave differently, the tool uses separate conversion processes, each based on Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP)–derived conversion factors. The CPM Calculator supports conversions for a range of common environmental media—including soil, steel, glass, drywall, concrete, and wood—to generate detector-ready CPM values. The primary goal of this tool is to enable more efficient, real-time field measurements, reducing reliance on laboratory analyses and ultimately saving both time and money during Superfund assessments.

Dolislager, Fred [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000325477921)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PRIME - A Software Toolkit for the Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics in a Bayesian Framework

PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the “real-time’” characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. We include examples using publicly available COVID-19 data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Method for Tensor Decompositions that Leverages Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method that uses stochastic and deterministic search to compute the maximum likelihood estimator of a low-rank count tensor with Poisson loss via state-of-theart local methods. Our approach is inspired by Simulated Annealing for global optimization and allows for fine-grain parameter tuning as well as adaptive updates to algorithm parameters. We present numerical results that indicate our hybrid approach can compute better approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator with less computation than the state-of-the-art methods by themselves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗