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2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data for Determining Spatially Varying Profit-Maximizing Management Practices for Miscanthus and Switchgrass Production in the Rainfed United States

The compiled datasets include county-level variables used for simulating miscanthus and switchgrass production in 2287 counties across the rainfed US including 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season degree days (GDD), 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season cumulative precipitation, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, regional dummies (only for miscanthus), the regional-level random effect of the yield response function, N price, land cash rent, the first year fixed cost (only for switchgrass), and separate datasets for simulating an alternative model assuming a constant N rate. The GAMS codes are used to run the simulation to obtain the main results including the age-varying profit-maximizing N rate, biomass yields, and annual profits for miscanthus and switchgrass production across counties in the rainfed US. The STATA codes are used to merge and analyze simulation results and create summary statistics tables and key figures.

Age↗

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electric Grid Visualization: Hourly Generation, Load, Unserved Load, and Locational Marginal Prices during a 2018 Heatwave

Visualization of hourly generation, load, unserved load, and locational marginal energy prices in the western United States during a July 22-28 heatwave event in 2018. In addition to hourly time series data of each of the parameters, choropleth maps showing the hourly value for each balancing authority are provided as well as a county-level choropleth map of temperature.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Heat Wave Impacts on Western US Electricity System

Visualization of hourly generation, load, unserved load, and locational marginal energy prices in the western United States during a July 22-28 heatwave event in 2018 and 2058. In addition to hourly time series data of each of the parameters, choropleth maps showing the hourly value for each balancing authority are provided as well as a county-level choropleth map of temperature.

Mongird, Kendall↗

Cancer survival in the United States 2007–2016: Results from the National Program of Cancer Registries

Background Cancer survival has improved for the most common cancers. However, less improvement and lower survival has been observed in some groups perhaps due to differential access to cancer care including prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Methods To further understand contemporary relative cancer survival (one- and five- year), we used survival data from CDC’s National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) for cancers diagnosed during 2007–2016. We examined overall relative cancer survival by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and county-level metropolitan and non-metropolitan status. Relative cancer survival by metropolitan and non-metropolitan status was further examined by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and cancer type. Results Among persons with cancer diagnosed during 2007–2016 the overall one-year and five-year relative survival was 80.6% and 67.4%, respectively. One-year relative survival for persons living in metropolitan counties was 81.1% and 77.8% among persons living in non-metropolitan counties. We found that persons who lived in non-metropolitan counties had lower survival than those who lived in metropolitan counties, and this difference persisted across sex, race and ethnicity, age, and most cancer types. Conclusion Further examination of the differences in cancer survival by cancer type or other characteristics might be helpful for identifying potential interventions, such as programs that target screening and early detection or strategies to improve access to high quality cancer treatment and follow-up care, that could improve long-term outcomes. Impact This analysis provided a high-level overview of contemporary cancer survival in the United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The public health exposome and pregnancy-related mortality in the United States: a high-dimensional computational analysis

Racial inequities in maternal mortality in the U.S. continue to be stark. The 2015–2018, 4-year total population, county-level, pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRM; deaths per 100,000 live births; National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), restricted use mortality file) was linked with the Public Health Exposome (PHE). Using data reduction techniques, 1591 variables were extracted from over 62,000 variables for use in this analysis, providing information on the relationships between PRM and the social, health and health care, natural, and built environments. Graph theoretical algorithms and Bayesian analysis were applied to PHE/PRM linked data to identify latent networks. PHE variables most strongly correlated with total population PRM were years of potential life lost and overall life expectancy. Population-level indicators of PRM were overall poverty, smoking, lack of exercise, heat, and lack of adequate access to food. In this high-dimensional analysis, overall life expectancy, poverty indicators, and health behaviors were found to be the strongest predictors of pregnancy-related mortality. This provides strong evidence that maternal death is part of a broader constellation of both similar and unique health behaviors, social determinants and environmental exposures as other causes of death.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating county-level lung cancer incidence from environmental radiation exposure, PM 2.5 , and other exposures with regression and machine learning models

Characterizing the interplay between exposures shaping the human exposome is vital for uncovering the etiology of complex diseases. For example, cancer risk is modified by a range of multifactorial external environmental exposures. Environmental, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors all shape lung cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies of radon aimed at identifying populations at high risk for lung cancer often fail to consider multiple exposures simultaneously. For example, moderating factors, such as PM 2.5 , may affect the transport of radon progeny to lung tissue. This ecological analysis leveraged a population-level dataset from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data (2013–17) to simultaneously investigate the effect of multiple sources of low-dose radiation (gross γ activity and indoor radon) and PM 2.5 on lung cancer incidence rates in the USA. County-level factors (environmental, sociodemographic, lifestyle) were controlled for, and Poisson regression and random forest models were used to assess the association between radon exposure and lung and bronchus cancer incidence rates. Tree-based machine learning (ML) method perform better than traditional regression: Poisson regression: 6.29/7.13 (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE), 12.70/12.77 (root mean square error, RMSE); Poisson random forest regression: 1.22/1.16 (MAPE), 8.01/8.15 (RMSE). The effect of PM 2.5 increased with the concentration of environmental radon, thereby confirming findings from previous studies that investigated the possible synergistic effect of radon and PM 2.5 on health outcomes. In summary, the results demonstrated (1) a need to consider multiple environmental exposures when assessing radon exposure’s association with lung cancer risk, thereby highlighting (1) the importance of an exposomics framework and (2) that employing ML models may capture the complex interplay between environmental exposures and health, as in the case of indoor radon exposure and lung cancer incidence.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Field To Farm Aggregation For Agricultural Systems

The Fields to Farms methodology illustrates the generation of farm parcels from the Crop Data Layer (CDL), a raster dataset containing 133 categories representing various crop types and land uses. This methodology involves two primary steps: Field Delineation and Farm Aggregation. The code specifically addresses the aggregation of pre-delineated fields within a county to form farms, adhering to predefined criteria for farm size categories. It is assumed that the field delineation process, which involves creating vector polygons from CDL raster, has been completed beforehand, possibly through external tools or methods. Upon initialization, the script processes county-level fields, preparing them for farm aggregation. In the Farm Aggregation phase, the code iteratively combines delineated fields into farms based on specified criteria, continuing until the aggregated farm size meets predefined thresholds derived from data from the 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) census. Throughout this iterative process, the script dynamically adjusts the aggregation to ensure alignment with the desired distribution reported by NASS. The resulting output of the script is a GeoDataFrame containing classified farms, which are subsequently saved as GeoPackage files. These files enable further analysis and visualization, facilitating comprehensive exploration of the farm landscape generated through the methodology.

Paudel, Rajiv [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers

Customer concerns over electric system resilience could drive early adoption of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage (BTM PVESS), especially as wildfire, hurricane, and other climate-driven risks to electric grids become more pronounced. However, the resilience benefits of BTM PVESS are poorly understood, especially for residential customers, owing to lack of data and methodological challenges, making it difficult to forecast adoption trends. In this paper, we develop a methodology to model the performance of BTM PVESS in providing backup power across a wide range of customer types, geography / climate conditions, and long duration power interruption scenarios, considering both whole-building backup and backup of specific critical loads. We combine novel, disaggregated end-use load profiles across the continental United States with temporally and geospatially aligned solar generation estimates. We then implement a PVESS dispatch algorithm to calculate the amount of load served during interruptions. We find that PVESS with 10 kWh of storage can meet a limited set of critical loads in most United States counties during any month of the year, though this capability drops to meeting only 86% of critical load, averaged across all counties and months, when heating and cooling are considered critical. Backup performance is lowest in winter months where electric heat is common (southeast and northwest U.S.) and in summer months in places with large cooling loads (southwest and southeast U.S.). Winter backup performance varies by roughly 20% depending on infiltration rates, while summer performance varies by close to 15% depending on the efficiency of the central air-conditioning system. Differences in temperature set-points in Harris County correspond to a 40% range in winter backup performance and a 20% range in summer performance. Economic calculations show that a customer’s resilience value of PVESS must be high to motivate adoption of these systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Capturing Infrastructure Interdependencies for Power Outages Prediction During Extreme Events

As extreme weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods grow in frequency and intensity, the disruption of power grid systems poses significant challenges, including widespread electrical outages, economic losses, and threats to public safety. This paper presents a forward-looking approach that leverages geographical graph-based machine learning models to predict county-level maximum power outages during such events. By capturing the intricate interdependencies within power system networks, our approach aims to provide precise and actionable predictions that can optimize emergency response efforts and enhance grid resilience. Through the integration of real-world data, including hurricane advisories and power outage records, we have trained and benchmarked multiple machine learning models, demonstrating the feasibility and potential of this method. While our initial results are promising, this paper also charts a course for advancing these models, addressing the remaining challenges, and ultimately transforming how we anticipate and respond to the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗

Updated U.S. Low-Temperature Heating and Cooling Demand by County and Sector

This dataset includes U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in major end-use sectors: residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data centers. Census division-level end-use energy consumption, expenditure, and commissioned power database were dis-aggregated to the county level. The county-level database was incorporated with climate zone, numbers of housing units and farms, farm size, and coefficient of performance (COP) for heating and cooling demand analysis. This dataset also includes a paper containing a full explanation of the methodologies used and maps. Residential data were updated from the latest Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) dataset (2015) using 2020 census data. Commercial data were baselined off the latest Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) dataset (2012). Manufacturing data were baselined off the latest Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) dataset (2021).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset

Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Residue Retention Requirement (Crop Residues)

County-level minimum residue (dry tons/acre/year) required to remain on fields to maintain soil carbon and limit erosion; defines the biophysical constraint on residue removal.

crop residue↗

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗