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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Mapping Florida Scrub Jay habitat for purposes of land-use management

Geographical information system (GIS) applications were used to map areas of primary and secondary Florida Scrub Jay habitat on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) using vegetation and soils maps. Data from field studies were used for accuracy assessment and evaluating the importance of mapping classes. Primary habitat accounts for 15 percent of the potential habitat and contained 57 percent of the Florida Scrub Jay population on KSC. Proximity analysis identified potential population centers, which were 44 percent of the potential habitat and contained 86 percent of the population. This study is an example of how remote sensing and GIS applications can provide information for land-use planning, habitat management, and the evaluation of cumulative impacts.

Breininger, David R.↗

Measuring dry plant residues in grasslands: A case study using AVIRIS

Grasslands, savannah, and hardwood rangelands are critical ecosystems and sensitive to disturbance. Approximately 20 percent of the Earth's surface are grasslands and represent 3 million ha. in California alone. Developing a methodology for estimating disturbance and the effects of cumulative impacts on grasslands and rangelands is needed to effectively monitor these ecosystems. Estimating the dry biomass residue remaining on rangelands at the end of the growing season provides a basis for evaluating the effectiveness of land management practices. The residual biomass is indicative of the grazing pressure and provides a measure of the system capacity for nutrient cycling since it represents the maximum organic matter available for decomposition, and finally, provides a measure of the erosion potential for the ecosystem. Remote sensing presents a possible method for measuring dry residue. However, current satellites have had limited application due to the coarse spatial scales (relative to the patch dynamics) and insensitivity of the spectral coverage to resolve dry plant material. Several hypotheses for measuring the biochemical constituents of dry plant material, particularly cellulose and lignin, using high spectral resolution sensors were proposed. The use of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometers (AVIRIS) to measure dry plant residues over an oak savannah on the eastern slopes of the Coast Range in central California was investigated and it was asked what spatial and spectral resolutions are needed to quantitatively measure dry plant biomass in this ecosystem.

Fitzgerald, Michael↗

Maneuver Design and Calibration for the Genesis Spacecraft

Genesis is the fifth mission selected as part of NASA's Discovery Program. The objective of Genesis is to collect solar wind samples for a period of approximately two years while in a halo orbit about the Earth-Sun L I point. At the end of this period, the samples are to be returned to a specific recovery point on the Earth for subsequent analysis. This goal has never been attempted before and presents a formidable challenge in terms of mission design and operations, particularly planning and execution of propulsive maneuvers. To achieve a level of cost-effectiveness consistent with a Discovery-class mission, the Genesis spacecraft design was adapted to the maximum extent possible from designs used on earlier missions, such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Stardust, another sample collection mission. The spacecraft design for Genesis is shown. Spin stabilization was chosen for attitude control, in lieu of three-axis stabilization, with neither reaction wheels nor accelerometers included. This precludes closed-loop control of propulsive maneuvers and implies that any attitude changes, including spin changes and precessions, will behave like translational propulsive maneuvers and affect the spacecraft trajectory. Moreover, to minimize contamination risk to the samples collected, all thrusters were placed on the side opposite the sample collection canister. The orientation and characteristics of thrusters are indicated. For large maneuvers (>2.5 m/s), two 5 lbf thrusters will be used for delta v, with precession to the burn attitude, followed by spin-up from 1.6 to 10 rpm before the burn and spin down to 1.6 rpm afterwards, then precession back to the original spin attitude. For small maneuvers (<2.5 m/s), no spin change is needed and four 0.2 lbf thrusters are used for Av. Single or double 360 deg. precession changes are required whenever the desired delta v falls inside the two-way turn circle (about 0.4 m/s) based on the mass properties, spin rate and lever arm lengths based on thruster locations. In such instances, delta v resulting from spacecraft precession cannot be used effectively as a component of the desired delta v, and must therefore be removed by precessing at least one complete revolution around the turn circle. To eliminate cross-track execution errors, a second revolution in the opposite direction would also be performed. This paper will address the design of propulsive maneuvers in light of the aforementioned challenges and other constraints. Maneuver design will be performed jointly by the Navigation Team at JPL and the Spacecraft Team at LMA, based on the process indicated . Typical maneuver timelines will be presented which address considerations introduced by attitude changes. These include nutation, which is introduced by precessing or spinning down and must be given sufficient time to damp out prior to execution of subsequent events, as well as sun and earth pointing constraints, which must be considered to ensure sufficient spacecraft power and to minimize telecommunications interruptions, respectively. The paper will include a description of how individual propulsive maneuvers are resolved into components to account for delta v from translational burns and spacecraft attitude changes required to carry out such maneuvers. Contributions to maneuver delta v arising from attitude changes, based on mass properties for the period just after launch, are indicated. Similar curves will be presented spanning all mission phases from launch through return. A set of closed-form equations for resolving maneuver components, base on a specific delta v required for correction or deterministic changes to the spacecraft trajectory will be presented, as well. In addition to nominal maneuvers, special calibration maneuvers are planned to improve open-loop modeling of maneuvers and to reduce execution errors. Uncalibrated execution errors are indicated. Such errors could be reduced by 50% or more over the course of the mission. Special calibrations are of particular importance for the return leg of the mission, since the sample canister must be returned to a specific location within the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) for mid-air retrieval. An entry angle tolerance of no less than +/- 0.08 deg. is required to achieve this objective. Biasing of the final return maneuvers coupled with a specific maneuver mode to use a series of well-characterized spin changes to effect these maneuvers is part of the current Genesis baseline mission plan. Another important objective of calibrations is to better characterize precession maneuvers. Such maneuvers are part of most propulsive maneuvers, but are also required periodically to maintain sun-pointing for power or daily during solar-wind pointing during collection periods. Although relatively small, such maneuvers will have a significant cumulative impact on orbit determination, particularly in the halo portion of the mission. The current mission design also calls for three stationkeeping maneuvers during each halo orbit of approximately six months duration. These stationkeeping maneuvers may be sufficiently small that single or double 360 deg. precession changes may be required. Because there are no accelerometers on board the spacecraft, calibration can only be performed with the aid of ground-based radiometric tracking. To establish a high degree of accuracy in characterizing the magnitude of burns, the spacecraft spin axis should be along the line of sight to the Earth, providing Doppler measurements with <1 mm/sec accuracy in S-Band. Emission constraints allow such alignment only during certain portions of the mission when the Earth-spacecraft-sun geometry is favorable. The impact of precessions, or burns at times when geometry is not favorable, can be assessed by reconstruction of the spacecraft trajectory using tracking arcs of several days before and after the event.

Williams, Kenneth E.↗

Possibilities of Using MARSES Instrument for Long-Term Monitoring and Subsurface Studies in Arctic and Arid Lands

The Mars Electromagnetic Sounding Experiment (MARSES) is the sounding instrument developed of searching for groundwater, water-ice or permafrost layers existing in some depth under the visible surface in the dry lands of Mars. One of the more important challenges facing natural resource managers today is how to identify, measure and monitoring the cumulative impacts of land use decisions across space and time. The secondary task is to measure the soil properties of Martian subsurface, which includes porosity, electrical resistance of the liquid phase, thermal conductivity, temperature dependence. A main task of the MARSES monitoring system is to examine changes in the subsurface properties of local areas regolith on the Martian surface on the base of the database of various soil slices in terrestrial conditions. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Ozorovich, Y. R.↗

Possibilities of Using MARSES Instrument for Long-Term Monitoring and Subsurface Studies in Arctic and Arid Lands

The MARSES is the sounding instrument developed of searching for groundwater, water-ice or permafrost layers existing in some depth under the visible surface in the dry lands of Mars. One of the more important challenges facing natural resource managers today is how to identify, measure and monitoring the cumulative impacts of land use decisions across space and time. The secondary task is to measure the soil properties of Martian subsurface, which includes porosity, electrical resistance of the liquid phase, thermal conductivity, temperature dependence. A main task of the MARSES monitoring system is to examine changes in the subsurface properties of local areas regolith on the Martian surface on the base of the database of various soil slices in terrestrial conditions

Ozorovich, Y. R.↗

Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

Imhoff, Marc L.↗

Navigation Algorithms for Formation Flying Missions

The objective of the investigations is to develop navigation algorithms to support formation flying missions. In particular, we examine the advantages and concerns associated with the use of combinations of inertial and relative measurements, as well as address observability issues. In our analysis we consider the interaction between measurement types, update frequencies, and trajectory geometry and their cumulative impact on observability. Furthermore, we investigate how relative measurements affect inertial navigation in terms of algorithm performance.

Huxel, Paul J.↗

Advantage of Animal Models with Metabolic Flexibility for Space Research Beyond Low Earth Orbit

As the world's space agencies and commercial entities continue to expand beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), novel approaches to carry out biomedical experiments with animals are required to address the challenge of adaptation to space flight and new planetary environments. The extended time and distance of space travel along with reduced involvement of Earth-based mission support increases the cumulative impact of the risks encountered in space. To respond to these challenges, it becomes increasingly important to develop the capability to manage an organism's self-regulatory control system, which would enable survival in extraterrestrial environments. To significantly reduce the risk to animals on future long duration space missions, we propose the use of metabolically flexible animal models as "pathfinders," which are capable of tolerating the environmental extremes exhibited in spaceflight, including altered gravity, exposure to space radiation, chemically reactive planetary environments and temperature extremes. In this report we survey several of the pivotal metabolic flexibility studies and discuss the importance of utilizing animal models with metabolic flexibility with particular attention given to the ability to suppress the organism's metabolism in spaceflight experiments beyond LEO. The presented analysis demonstrates the adjuvant benefits of these factors to minimize damage caused by exposure to spaceflight and extreme planetary environments. Examples of microorganisms and animal models with dormancy capabilities suitable for space research are considered in the context of their survivability under hostile or deadly environments outside of Earth. Potential steps toward implementation of metabolic control technology in spaceflight architecture and its benefits for animal experiments and manned space exploration missions are discussed.

metabilic flexibility↗

The Human Performance Envelope: Past Research, Present Activities and Future Directions

Air traffic controllers (ATCOs) must maintain a consistently high level of human performance in order to maintain flight safety and efficiency. In current control environments, performance-influencing factors such as workload, fatigue and situation awareness can co-occur, and interact, to effect performance. However, multifactor influences and the association with performance are under-researched. This study utilized a high fidelity human in the loop enroute air traffic control simulation to investigate the relationship between workload, situation awareness and ATCO performance. The study aimed to replicate and extend Edwards, Sharples, Wilson and Kirwans (2012) previous study and confirm multifactor interactions with a participant sample of ex-controllers. The study also aimed to extend Edwards et als previous research by comparing multifactor relationships across 4 automation conditions. Results suggest that workload and SA may interact to produce a cumulative impact on controller performance, although the effect of the interaction on performance may be dependent on the context and amount of automation present. Findings have implications for human-automation teaming in air traffic control, and the potential prediction and support of ATCO performance.

human performance envelope↗

Advantage of Animal Models with Metabolic Flexibility for Space Research Beyond Low Earth Orbit

As the worlds space agencies and commercial entities continue to expand beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), novel approaches to carry out biomedical experiments with animals are required to address the challenge of adaptation to space flight and new planetary environments. The extended time and distance of space travel along with reduced involvement of Earth-based mission support increases the cumulative impact of the risks encountered in space. To respond to these challenges, it becomes increasingly important to develop the capability to manage an organisms self-regulatory control system, which would enable survival in extraterrestrial environments. To significantly reduce the risk to animals on future long duration space missions, we propose the use of metabolically flexible animal models as pathfinders, which are capable of tolerating the environmental extremes exhibited in spaceflight, including altered gravity, exposure to space radiation, chemically reactive planetary environments and temperature extremes.In this report we survey several of the pivotal metabolic flexibility studies and discuss the importance of utilizing animal models with metabolic flexibility with particular attention given to the ability to suppress the organism's metabolism in spaceflight experiments beyond LEO. The presented analysis demonstrates the adjuvant benefits of these factors to minimize damage caused by exposure to spaceflight and extreme planetary environments. Examples of microorganisms and animal models with dormancy capabilities suitable for space research are considered in the context of their survivability under hostile or deadly environments outside of Earth. Potential steps toward implementation of metabolic control technology in spaceflight architecture and its benefits for animal experiments and manned space exploration missions are discussed.

metabolic flexibility↗

Personalized Risk Assesment for Adverse Drug Reactions and Treatment Failures

As NASA and other space agencies prepare for future long-term space missions beyond the LEO, the cumulative impact of risk factors encountered in space increases substantially rising concerns about astronauts health. Application of on-board medications to mitigate clinical symptoms associated with certain medical conditions and illnesses is the first line of response to ensure sustainable health and performance of crew. Unfortunately, very limited research has been conducted to determine efficacy of the earth-based pharmaceuticals in a microgravity environment. In some instances, orally administered medications taken during flight were reported to be less effective than expected. Evaluation of series of experiments involving astronauts from shuttle flights shows notable individual variability to several pharmaceuticals during flight. These data provide reasonable assumption of perturbation in CYP450 enzymes during spaceflight, which contribute to the hepatic metabolism of the majority of drugs and therefore may have significant effects on therapeutic efficacy and increase treatment-related toxicity. The genes encoding the CYP450 enzymes are highly variable in humans. Inheritable variations of CYP450 hepatic metabolizer enzymes and transport proteins play a crucial role in the inter-individual variability of drug efficiency and risks of adverse drug reactions. Additionally, there are some reports that document changes in the levels of production of drug-metabolizing enzymes in microgravity. Therefore, in order to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical treatment in space, medications selection should be based not only on the specific efficacy of medications but also on the individual drug sensitivity and flight-induced changes in metabolism of astronauts chosen for a particular mission. To our knowledge, there was no pre-flight drug sensitivity testing on a genetic level for any of the previous manned NASA space missions. Therefore, technologies capable of predicting and managing medication efficacy, side effects, and toxicity of drugs based on individual genetic variability of crew members are increasingly needed. In this report, we present results of testing the market available Personalized Prescribing System (PPS), a comprehensive, non-invasive solution for safer, targeted medication management for every crew member. Statistical accuracy and simplicity of non-invasive sample analysis demonstrate the feasibility of drug sensitivity assessment and record-keeping tool for flight surgeons and astronauts in applying the recommended medications for situations arising in flight. The information on individual drug sensitivity will translate into personalized risk assessment for adverse drug reactions and treatment failures for each drug from the medication kit as well as predefined outcome. This will address the HHC’s raised “Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication” as recently updated.

medications↗

Multifactor Interactions and the Air Traffic Controller: The Interaction of Situation Awareness and Workload in Association with Automation

Air traffic controllers (ATCOs) must maintain a consistently high level of human performance in order to maintain flight safety and efficiency. In current control environments, performance-influencing factors such as workload, fatigue and situation awareness (SA) can co-occur, and interact, to affect performance. However, multifactor influences and the association with performance are under-researched. This study utilized a high fidelity human in the loop enroute air traffic control simulation to investigate the relationship between workload, situation awareness and ATCO performance. The study aimed to replicate and extend Edwards, Sharples, Wilson and Kirwan's (2012) previous study and confirm multifactor interactions with a participant sample of ex-controllers. The study also aimed to extend Edwards et al.'s previous research by comparing multifactor relationships across 4 automation conditions. Results suggest that workload and SA may interact to produce a cumulative impact on controller performance, although the effect of the interaction on performance may be dependent on the context and amount of automation present. Findings have implications for human-automation teaming in air traffic control, and the potential prediction and support of ATCO performance.

Workload↗

Panel Session 129: Perspectives (US and Non-US) on the Use of Risk and Dose Assessment Tools (R9.3)

This panel focused on various dose and risk assessment tools for assessments, Deactivation and Decommissioning, remediation, and closure of sites of chemical and radioactive wastes. Representatives from the US government agencies, non-US countries and their representative regulatory bodies or authorities, as well as performance/risk assessment practitioners compared and contrasted the various guidance from regulatory agencies and authorities on how tools such as the Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRG) calculator, the Dose Compliance Concentrations (DCC) calculator, and Residual Radioactivity (RESRAD) should be used in support of analyses and decisions for environmental cleanup activities. Panelists with presentations: Cumulative Impact Evaluation: Innovative Tools for Evaluation of Groundwater Protection (Alaa Aly); Superfund Evaluation Process for Alternative Risk and Dose Models (with Focus on EPA and DOE Tools) (Stuart Walker); NRC Staff Perspective on Risk-Informed Approach and Reasonable Safety Assurance in D and D and LLW (Rateb (Boby) Abu Eid)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

actuated signal control↗

James Webb Space Telescope Navigation Optimization Challenges

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a NASA flagship mission launched on December 25, 2021. The early orbit phase was highlighted by three midcourse correction burns that were performed to maneuver the vehicle into a libration orbit at the second Sun-Earth-Moon (SEM) libration point (L2). During the coast to L2, the vehicle’s primary observatory and sunshield were deployed. Once the tennis-court-sized sunshield was unfurled and tensioned into place, the large area exposed to solar radiation pressure (SRP) dictated that the SRP force model would need to account for the vehicle’s geometry, reflective properties, and orientation relative to the Sun. Following the insertion of JWST into its L2 libration orbit on January 24, 2022, the commissioning phase for the vehicle’s observatory commenced along with the first cycle of routine station-keeping maneuvers. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) provides navigation services for the JWST mission. The FDF serves as the prime or backup navigation operations center for more than 30 active missions spanning a wide array of flight regimes performing orbit determination, maneuver planning, trajectory optimization, and tracking data evaluation. Definitive orbit determination for JWST is performed by the FDF using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the vehicle’s trajectory and reflective properties using Deep Space Network (DSN) TRK-2-34 tracking data and spacecraft attitude telemetry. For the purposes of orbit prediction and station-keeping maneuver targeting, the sensitivity of the SRP force to the vehicle’s orientation requires that predictive attitude information must be incorporated to generate accurate orbit predictions and maneuver plans. Predictive attitude plans are provided to the FDF by the JWST Spacecraft Operations Center (SOC). Short-term (28 day) orbit predictions are propagated using a Short Range Attitude Plan (SRAP) to model the vehicle’s future attitude states for up to a week. SRAP attitude data is highly reliable, as it reflects finalized planned attitude states that the vehicle will be commanded to attain during the ensuing week. A Long Range Attitude Plan (LRAP) can be implemented to model predicted attitude states beyond one week, but these predictions are tentative and subject to revision due to changes in science operations plans. Instead, a conservative approach of applying a Sun-Pointing Neutral (SPN) attitude configuration is utilized for long-term (2 year) orbit predictions where reliable planned attitude data is not available. SPN attitude mode aligns the net SRP force along the JWST-to-Sun vector where it becomes independent of the vehicle’s angle of rotation about this vector, defined as the Sun yaw. Given the dynamic instability of the libration orbit, station-keeping thrust must be applied in either the sunward or anti-sunward direction to balance the resulting orbit. The attitude constraints of the vehicle also impose limits on the available pointing directions for station-keeping thrusters. The thrusters cannot be aligned with the optimal pointing direction for sunward maneuvers, rendering sunward maneuvers to be significantly less fuel efficient than anti-sunward maneuvers. Consequently, station-keeping maneuvers must be targeted to balance the orbit while ensuring that the next maneuver will also be performed in the anti-sunward direction to optimize propellant usage. When targeting a station-keeping maneuver, the attitude and SRP modeling configuration which is applied to the predicted post-maneuver trajectory will dictate the direction of the subsequent station-keeping maneuver, assuming nominal propulsion system performance. If the predicted post-maneuver attitude states result in an SRP model which under-predicts the cumulative SRP impact on the post-maneuver orbit, a targeted anti-sunward maneuver will be larger than necessary and the next maneuver will need to be executed sunward in order to compensate. In contrast, an anti-sunward maneuver which is targeted using an SRP model which over-predicts the cumulative SRP impact will achieve station-keeping while ensuring that the next maneuver will likewise be performed anti-sunward. For this reason, station-keeping maneuvers are targeted while applying the SPN attitude mode, as this mode entails the largest possible SRP area cross-section and therefore a larger modeled cumulative SRP impact. This paper documents the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s FDF support for JWST on-orbit operations and the analysis projects undertaken utilizing the experiences and data accumulated throughout the first full year of routine science operations. The results of these analysis efforts have been used to implement improvements to orbit prediction accuracy and maneuver efficiency which have the potential to prolong the lifespan of JWST to continue to conduct ground-breaking infrared astronomy for decades to come.

Flight Dynamics↗

Cumulative Distribution of Ballistic Impact Failures of Common Twisted-Pair Data Cables at Orbital Speeds

Data wire cable runs are a significant presence on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS), and continued ISS mission support requires detailed assessment of cables due to micrometeoroid and orbit debris (MMOD) impact. These data wire cables are twisted-pair cables consisting of two 22AWG stranded conductors and fillers inside a tight fitting braided copper shield. The copper shield and its contents are covered with a jacket that has a nominal outer diameter of 3.76 mm and beta-cloth tape. The ISS engineering community has identified two loss-of-function mechanisms for these cables: open circuits due to severed conductors within the cable, and short circuits due to contact between conductors or grounded components. As these data cables are low power systems, short circuits are not expected to burn away the contact, so both open and short circuits are considered permanent loss-of-function for the cable. A total of ninety-seven impact experiments have been performed into these cables to develop a statistical model for the failure of these cables to be used in reliability studies. The experimental work has yielded cumulative distribution functions for these cables for steel and aluminum components of the orbital debris environment at representative speeds and impact obliquities.

Miller, Joshua E.↗

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R 2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗