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Statistical model for simulating radar echoes from tropical precipitation for ocean surface region using Nimbus 3 satellite infrared data
The goal of the project is to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of collaborators.
This dataset contains 10-minute wind statistics from the ground-based NLR profiling lidar (Windcube v2.1) deployed at FC Site 4.0.
Sample data and cumulative distributions of atmospheric noise temperature increase above the quiescent baseline for the calendar years 1977 and 1978 are presented. Comparison is made with the existing Deep Space Network noise temperature statistics.
We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.
We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.
The uniaxial and equibiaxial tensile strengths of a brittle material were measured in bending. Equibiaxial tension was attained by concentric ring loading of disks and uniaxial tension by four-point line loading of plates. The two specimen designs give equal volumes, surface areas, and stress gradients. Ground surfaces and lapped surfaces were tested. The equibiaxial tensile strength of a dense alumina was lower than the uniaxial tensile strengths for both ground and lapped surfaces, 8.5 and 8.1%, respectively. The Batdorf theory of flaw statistics, in which biaxial tensile strengths can be predicted from the statistical distribution of uniaxial tensile strength measurements, agreed with the data.
A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.
This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.
Computational methods for occurrences of combined environmental and pollution variables are compared. General statistical data and diurnal statistics on 24 environmental variables are treated. Combinations of variables dealt with include: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, total insolation; air temperature and weather event (rain, fog); air pollutant and weather event; wind speed, wind direction, and weather event; air temperature, total insolation, and weather event; air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, computed direct insolation levels; air temperature, relative humidity, air pollution.
The activity concentrated on identifying crop and irrigation data sources for the eight states within the High Plains Aquifer and making contacts concerning the nature of these data. A mail questionnaire was developed to gather specific data not routinely reported through standard data collection channels. Input/output routines were designed for High Plains crop and irrigation data and initial statistical data on crops were input to computer files.
Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.
A newly developed two-way time synchronization system is described in this paper. The system uses one voice channel at a SCPC satellite digital communication earth station, whose bandwidth is only 45 kHz, thus saving satellite resources greatly. The system is composed of one master station and one or several, up to sixty-two, secondary stations. The master and secondary stations are equipped with the same equipment, including a set of timing equipment, a synthetic data terminal for time synchronizing, and a interface unit between the data terminal and the satellite earth station. The synthetic data terminal for time synchronization also has an IRIG-B code generator and a translator. The data terminal of master station is the key part of whole system. The system synchronization process is full automatic, which is controlled by the master station. Employing an autoscanning technique and conversational mode, the system accomplishes the following tasks: linking up liaison with each secondary station in turn, establishing a coarse time synchronization, calibrating date (years, months, days) and time of day (hours, minutes, seconds), precisely measuring the time difference between local station and the opposite station, exchanging measurement data, statistically processing the data, rejecting error terms, printing the data, calculating the clock difference and correcting the phase, thus realizing real-time synchronization from one point to multiple points. We also designed an adaptive phase circuit to eliminate the phase ambiguity of the PSK demodulator. The experiments have shown that the time synchronization accuracy is better than 2 mu S. The system has been put into regular operation.
The scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) aboard the SEASAT satellite measured emitted radiation in both horizontal and vertical polarizations at microwave frequencies of 6.6, 10.69, 18.0, 21.0 and 37.0 GHz. Retrieval algorithms, for sea surface temperature (SST) determination, from subsets of one to three SMMR channels are obtained by a two step statistical technique. The technique first selects the best subsets of a given size defined by an R2 criterion (coefficient of determination), of a given size by the application of an efficient 'leaps and bounds' technique on a statistical data base. It then performs a regression analysis on the selected subsets. The statistical data base employed a large (600) set of seasonally and geographically diverse atmospheric and surface parameters for radiative transfer calculations. The results of the study of one to three channel subset retrieval algorithms indicate the possibility of using 6.6V, 6.6H and 18V channels for SST determination from SEASAT-SMMR data.
This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.
Basic statistical properties of the speckle effect and the associated spatial correlation of SAR image data are discussed. Statistics of SAR sensed measurement and their relationships to the surface mean power reflectivity are derived. The Rayleigh speckle model is reviewed. Applications of the derived statistics to SAR radiometric measures and image processing are considered.
Current deterministic structural methods are easily applied to substructures and components, and analysts have built great design insights and confidence in them over the years. However, deterministic methods cannot support systems risk analyses, and it was recently reported that deterministic treatment of statistical data is inconsistent with error propagation laws that can result in unevenly conservative structural predictions. Assuming non-nal distributions and using statistical data formats throughout prevailing stress deterministic processes lead to a safety factor in statistical format, which integrated into the safety index, provides a safety factor and first order reliability relationship. The embedded safety factor in the safety index expression allows a historically based risk to be determined and verified over a variety of quasi-static metallic substructures consistent with the traditional safety factor methods and NASA Std. 5001 criteria.
Retrievals of wind speed (WS) from Seasat Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) were performed using a two-step statistical technique. Nine subsets of two to five SMMR channels were examined for wind speed retrieval. These subsets were derived by using a leaps and bound procedure based on the coefficient of determination selection criteria to a statistical data base of brightness temperatures and geophysical parameters. Analysis of Monsoon Experiment and ocean station PAPA data showed a strong correlation between sea surface temperature and water vapor. This relation was used in generating the statistical data base. Global maps of WS were produced for one and three month periods.