SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
The Small Hydropower Interconnection Decision Support Tool is designed to provide specific information to small hydropower developers about the interconnection process. Developers follow this user guide to understand the general process; the Small Hydropower Interconnection Tool accompanies this user guide and provides specific knowledge of the processes and costs pertinent to specific locations.
This work represents the largest and most comprehensive dataset to-date of responses surveyed from U.S. residents regarding home modifications and energy-related decision-making, including both objective measures describing the occupants and their homes and subjective measures describing the more unpredictable human factors behind residential decision-making. First, to develop the survey, we interviewed 121 individual decision-makers within their households regarding planned or completed projects. We used the insights of these interviews to design a survey that was distributed to 10,000 households across the U.S. The overarching topics approached in the survey include descriptive information about the respondent, their household, their home, home modifications they have made, and the human cognition-based contextual factors involved in home projects and decision-making, such as preferences, motivations, barriers, and information sources. The processed data from the survey was compiled into a dataset entitled UPGRADE-E: Understanding Patterns Guiding Residential Adoption and Decisions about Energy Efficiency and represents the basis for the analyses included in this paper. The dataset represents a rich repository of home energy technology and modification decision-making results, the largest of its kind to-date. The abundance of contextual considerations within this dataset provides a robust resource for continual analysis, with possibilities for considering cross-cuts of data from a variety of perspectives.
Inertial confined fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have recently entered a new regime approaching ignition. Improved modeling and exploration of the experimental parameter space were essential to deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that degrade and amplify the neutron yield. The growing prevalence of machine learning in fusion studies opens a new avenue for investigation. Here in this paper, we have applied the Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree machine-learning architecture to further explore the parameter space and find correlations with the neutron yield, a key performance indicator. We find reasonable agreement between the measured and predicted yield, with a mean absolute percentage error on a randomly assigned test set of 35.5%. This model finds the characteristics of the laser pulse to be the most influential in prediction, as well as the hohlraum laser entrance hole diameter and an enhanced capsule fabrication technique. We used the trained model to scan over the design space of experiments from three different campaigns to evaluate the potential of this technique to provide design changes that could improve the resulting neutron yield. While these data-driven model cannot predict ignition without examples of ignited shots in the training set, it can be used to indicate that an unseen shot design will at least be in the upper range of previously observed neutron yields.
In Multi-Policy Decision-Making (MPDM), many computationally-expensive forward simulations are performed in order to predict the performance of a set of candidate policies. In risk-aware formulations of MPDM, only the worst outcomes affect the decision making process, and efficiently finding these influential outcomes becomes the core challenge. Recently, stochastic gradient optimization algorithms, using a heuristic function, were shown to be significantly superior to random sampling. In this disclosure, it was shown that accurate gradients can be computed-even through a complex forward simulation—using approaches similar to those in dep networks. The proposed approach finds influential outcomes more reliably, and is faster than earlier methods, allowing one to evaluate more policies while simultaneously eliminating the need to design an easily-differentiable heuristic function.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.
An in-flight smoke or fire event is an emergency unlike almost any other. The early cues for un-alerted conditions, such as air conditioning smoke or fire, are often ambiguous and elusive. The checklists crews use for these conditions must help them respond quickly and effectively and must guide their decisions. Ten years ago an industry committee developed a template to guide the content of Part 121 checklists for un-alerted smoke and fire events. This template is based upon a new philosophy about how crews should use the checklists and respond to the events. To determine the degree to which current un-alerted checklists of in-flight smoke or fire comply or are consistent with the guidance outlined in the template, I collected and analysed checklists from North American air carriers.
Fire is a natural disturbance and fundamental to many ecosystems, but, across the United States and many areas globally, fires have become more common, larger and more likely to occur at the same time. This has the potential to challenge resource allocation and response and requires coordinated integration of technology and tools at the spatial and temporal scales required by practitioners who make wildland fire management decisions. In the US wildfire is currently managed across state, federal, and tribal agencies who leverage various datasets to guide management decisions. FireSense, a NASA Science Mission Directorate project, aims to develop and deliver trailblazing technology and tools for use before, during, and after wildland fires by working together with land managers and practitioners. FireSense is focused on turning information into solutions by expanding partnerships and collaborations with operational agencies to inform and deliver data and technology to support decisions for wildland fire management. Through implementation across the US and with campaign activities in a variety of landscapes, coordinated research and development work will build upon adaptive and use-inspired approaches that can be put into operation. By leveraging and complementing partner activities through coordinated investment, we support a more comprehensive and cohesive response that can advance fire science to better understand fire behavior and effects through integrated measurement, monitoring and modeling. We present updates from in-progress technology development and field campaigns within the US which include sampling and application across scales with information from multiple sensors collocated with field measurements and highlighting the importance of cross-scale observations during the fire lifecycle. Coordinated investment in new science and technology for the complete fire lifecycle supports a comprehensive and cohesive fire response that help to overcome barriers and anticipate and manage the new reality of extreme fires in a warming world.
Diminishing rates of subsurface volatile contaminant removal by soil vapor extraction (SVE) oftentimes warrants an in‐depth performance assessment to guide remedy decision‐making processes. Such a performance assessment must include quantitative approaches to better understand the impact of remaining vadose zone contamination on soil gas and groundwater concentrations. The spreadsheet‐based Soil Vapor Extraction Endstate Tool (SVEET) software functionality has recently been expanded to facilitate quantitative performance assessments. The updated version, referred to as SVEET2, includes expansion of the input parameter ranges for describing a site (site geometry, source characteristics, etc.), an expanded list of contaminants, and incorporation of elements of the Vapor Intrusion Estimation Tool for Unsaturated‐zone Sources software to provide soil gas concentration estimates for use in vapor intrusion evaluation. As part of the update, SVEET2 was used to estimate the impact of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) vadose zone source on groundwater concentrations, comparing SVEET2 results to field‐observed values at an undisclosed site where SVE was recently terminated. PCE concentrations from three separate monitoring wells were estimated by SVEET2 to be within the range of 6.0–6.7 μg/L, as compared to actual field concentrations that ranged from 3 to 11 μg/L PCE. These data demonstrate that SVEET2 can rapidly provide representative quantitative estimates of impacts from a vadose zone contaminant source at field sites. Finally, in the context of the SVE performance assessment, such quantitative estimates provide a basis to support remedial and/or regulatory decisions regarding the continued need for vadose zone volatile organic compound remediation or technical justification for SVE termination, which can significantly reduce the cost to complete for a site.
OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal, skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment, the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics. Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities. Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.
OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal,skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment,the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics.Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities.Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.
The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.
The International Space Station Medical Projects (ISSMP) Element provides planning, integration, and implementation services for HRP research studies for both spaceflight and flight analog research. Through the implementation of these two efforts, ISSMP offers an innovative way of guiding research decisions to meet the unique challenges of understanding the human risks to space exploration. Flight services provided by ISSMP include leading informed consent briefings, developing and validating in-flight crew procedures, providing ISS crew and ground-controller training, real-time experiment monitoring, on-orbit experiment and hardware operations and facilitating data transfer to investigators. For analog studies at the NASA Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA), the ISSMP team provides subject recruitment and screening, science requirements integration, data collection schedules, data sharing agreements, mission scenarios and facilities to support investigators. The ISSMP also serves as the HRP interface to external analog providers including the :envihab bed rest facility (Cologne, Germany), NEK isolation chamber (Moscow, Russia) and the Antarctica research stations. Investigators working in either spaceflight or analog environments requires a coordinated effort between NASA and the investigators. The interdisciplinary nature of both flight and analog research requires investigators to be aware of concurrent research studies and take into account potential confounding factors that may impact their research objectives. Investigators must define clear research requirements, participate in Investigator Working Group meetings, obtain human use approvals, and provide study-specific training, sample and data collection and procedures all while adhering to schedule deadlines. These science requirements define the technical, functional and performance operations to meet the research objectives. The ISSMP maintains an expert team of professionals with the knowledge and experience to guide investigators science through all aspects of mission planning, crew operations, and research integration. During this session, the ISSMP team will discuss best-practices approaches for successfully preparing and conducting studies in both the flight and analog environments. Critical tips and tricks will be shown to greatly improve your chances of successfully completing your research aboard the International Space Station and in Spaceflight Analogs.
The US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project (ECP) has fostered and strengthened the use of modern software engineering practices for developing applications and libraries, and this effort has resulted in the coordinated and interoperable E4S1 and xSDK2 ecosystems. Although this approach is cost-effective, it relies on robust programming systems and tools (PST) as the underlying foundation for our HPC software. At present, our primary PST stack consists of traditional high-performance computing (HPC) languages, namely Fortran, C, C++, and the popular Python language for data analysis and AI workflows. These languages support various programming frameworks and run-time abstractions that enable parallelism and concurrency across multiple node architectures and thousands of nodes through a variety of interconnect systems. However, to accommodate users’ diverse needs, certain aspects of the HPC ecosystem are delegated to vendor-specific or third-party implementations that extend beyond a particular scientific domain. This broader scope results in a multitude of specifications and variations, which leads to a complex orchestration of many-ecosystems. Unfortunately, this complexity in the ecosystem imposes additional overhead costs on consumers during the latter stages of the development cycle. In addition to the software ecosystem challenge, the upcoming conclusion of the ECP by December 2023 has raised significant concerns within the HPC programming systems community, from both the economic and social perspectives. The ECP has implemented a management structure for software development and funding decisions across all ECP participants by following a conventional hierarchical and centralized approach. However, this structure has prompted certain considerations within the community, particularly in anticipation of the Software Sustainability initiative by the DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research Program (ASCR). For the success of this new initiative, it is of utmost importance to secure consistent funding and foster close engagement with researchers and core developers of existing programming-system products. This collaboration is vital to maintaining the critical capabilities of the current software during the transition phase while proactively adapting to future technology and workforce trends. The community recognizes the significance of adapting to emerging trends and is aware of the inherent fragility of the HPC software ecosystem, particularly in relation to programming systems that cater to all users. The ability to adapt and evolve is essential to staying relevant and effectively addressing these technical, economic, and social challenges. The S4PST team, which represents one of the six ASCR Software Sustainability seedling projects, is dedicated to tackling these challenges through community-based approaches that go beyond the scope of the DOE. This involves collaboration between national laboratories with academia, non-DOE institutions, hardware and system vendors, and international partners. By fostering these partnerships, we aim to create a robust and sustainable HPC software ecosystem that can effectively meet the needs of the community. This new community effort, driven by the eight DOE labs, will take on the responsibility of guiding funding decisions for programming-systems development and maintenance with transparency and consistency across all decisions. Additionally, the team will offer common technical services to the programming systems community, irrespective of their funding situations, and facilitate community-wide incubation to proactively nurture the software ecosystem. By actively engaging with stakeholders and employing a collaborative approach, we can collectively shape the future of programming systems and ensure a robust and thriving HPC software landscape. On May 11–12, 2023, the S4PST team conducted its inaugural kick-off workshop at the Innovative Computing Laboratory (ICL) in the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, hosted by Hartwig Anzt. The workshop encompassed various sessions dedicated to presentations and discussions, with the aim of comprehending the team members’ perspectives on the vision of software sustainability. Additionally, the workshop aimed to identify the technical, economic, and social requirements for sustaining the programming-systems community in the field of HPC. This report provides a summary of the S4PST effort by highlighting five major thrust areas discussed during the workshop: (i) community, (ii) technical support, (iii) training and diversity, (iv) verification, validation and correctness, and (v) emerging technologies. It also encompasses an overview of the presentations and discussions held throughout the event, our views and potential synergies with other seedling efforts, along with the outcomes and key takeaways from our initial discussions.
Abstract The management of introduced fishes, including Walleye Sander vitreus, whether for control or enhancement, requires understanding of population dynamics at the invasion front. Walleye recently established in the Pend Oreille basin, Idaho, threaten the existing salmonid-based fish community and associated recreational fishery. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to describe population growth and associated life history characteristics. Walleye were sampled in October of 2011, 2014, and 2017 using a standardized gill netting survey protocol to describe trends in relative abundance and evaluate population dynamics. Relative abundance increased exponentially from 1.4 to 4.3 fish/net over the 6-year monitoring period. This population was characterized by fast somatic growth, robust body condition, and early age at maturity at or near the biological maxima for Walleye. Among the survey years, mean length at age 2 varied for female (359–441 mm) and male (358–426 mm) Walleye and relative weight varied from 91 to 98. The sampled Walleye matured at 1 to 4 years of age, and recruitment became more consistent as abundance increased. These density-dependent metrics suggest that the Walleye population is still at low density relative to carrying capacity. The information that was gained from this study was used to better understand potential risks and guide management decisions related to experimental population suppression that is now underway. Suppression under these conditions must overcome the recruitment capabilities of the population. We conclude that natural mortality is likely regulated by density-dependent processes. Therefore, at current (low) density, fishing mortality may be entirely additive and compensation is unlikely to further complicate management.
In geological CO 2 storage operations, wellbore deformations and leakage pathways formations can occur around injection and abandoned wells subjected to high rates and long-term CO 2 injection. To guide engineering design and prevent CO 2 leakage risks, a full understanding of the underlying physics and robust numerical models is necessary to evaluate the response of underground formations in the near wellbore region and in the reservoir. In this study, a multi-scale and multi-physics open-source simulator (GEOS) is used to simulate multiphase flow and poromechanical deformations over time in three dimensions. The governing equations for mechanical deformations of the rock body and multiphase compositional fluid flow within the rock matrix are solved with a fully coupled finite element and finite volume approach. The Drucker–Prager model with friction hardening is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformation and a multiphase fluid model with power-law correlations for relative permeability is used to model the migration of CO 2 plume, which are coupled with numerical implicit scheme. Simulation results are verified against multiple analytical solutions for multiphase flow and wellbore problems, thus demonstrating the accuracy of this advanced simulator. In two engineering applications, here we highlight the impact of elastoplastic deformation and coupled modeling for assessing induced displacements and stress perturbations, which are more pronounced in the near wellbore regions. This work focuses on short-term processes in the vicinity of injection wells where stress evolutions, rock deformations and multiphase compositional flow and transport are simulated jointly to ensure wellbore stability and prevent damage. This fully coupled geomechanical model can simulate multiphase flow and any associated poromechanical effects within the CO 2 storage site and in the surrounding formations. Such a large-scale, long-term, multi-physics simulation model is useful in many ways: it can guide operational decisions for CO 2 injection, assess the containment potential and risks of a site, and analyze the wellbore stability and integrity during and after CO 2 injection.
As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.
Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.
Winter weather events challenge the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of roadway networks, particularly road bridges vulnerable to climate impacts. Although effective, conventional de-icing methods incur high expenses and cause significant environmental contamination. To address these longstanding issues, a low-cost novel coal-derived carbon enabled smart pavement (CDC-SP) de-icing system was developed, aiming to alleviate traffic delays, severe corrosion, compromised safety, and environmental pollution. However, the economic performance of CDC-SP has not been quantified to guide decision-making. To this end, this paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to assess the economic feasibility of the CDC-SP de-icing system for road bridges in five representative urban and rural areas across cool humid and cold humid climate zones. Given the variations and uncertainties of several factors that determine the costs and benefits, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the system’s economic reliability. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to quantify the impacts of important factors and identify the most beneficial scenarios. Furthermore, the CDC-SP de-icing systems have demonstrated substantial economic benefits and short payback periods, showing great applicability for rural and urban road bridges with different service levels across multiple climate zones as compared to conventional de-icing methods.