Deep Space Ops for Small Spacecraft; Lecture 2: Challenges of Deep Space
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Deep level defect introduction and carrier removal were characterized using steady-state photocapacitance (SSPC), deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) and lighted capacitance–voltage for proton irradiated n-type Al 0.70 Ga 0.30 N Schottky diodes grown by metal-organic vapor phase epitaxy on AlN-on-sapphire templates. SSPC observed deep levels in the as-grown diode with zero-phonon transition energies of 2.20, 2.65, 3.10, 3.40, and 4.65 eV relative to the conduction band minimum (E c ), and an additional deep level emerged at 1.20 eV with irradiation. Lighted capacitance–voltage measurements quantified the deep level concentration (N t ) of states detected by SSPC, and it was observed that N t increased with proton fluence only for the 1.2 and 4.65 eV levels. Carrier removal was much larger than the increase in N t of the 1.2 and 4.65 eV deep levels, suggesting that radiation-induced deep level compensators existed beyond what was detected with SSPC. DLTS detected additional, proton-induced deep acceptors at E c —0.55, 0.82, and 1.16 eV, the latter of which is likely the same 1.20 eV deep state observed by SSPC. The concentration of the E c —0.82 eV defect state was large enough to reconcile carrier removal with total deep level introduction. Comparing the E c —0.82 and 1.16 eV deep acceptor levels to previous experimental and theoretical reports suggests that their atomistic origins could be the nitrogen vacancy (V N ) and oxygen substituting on the nitrogen sub-lattice (O N ), respectively. This defect behavior contrasts starkly with GaN, where V N and O N are shallow donors, and demonstrates that the electronic properties of defects can evolve drastically within the AlGaN alloy system ranging from wide bandgap GaN to ultra-wide bandgap AlN.
Deep space exploration is concerned with the study of natural phenomena in the solar system with the aid of measurements made at spacecraft on deep space missions. Deep space communication refers to communication between earth and spacecraft in deep space. The Deep Space Network is an earth-based facility employed for deep space communication. It includes a network of large tracking antennas located at various positions around the earth. The goals and achievements of deep space exploration over the past 20 years are discussed along with the broad functional requirements of deep space missions. Attention is given to the differences in space loss between communication satellites and deep space vehicles, effects of the long round-trip light time on spacecraft autonomy, requirements for the use of massive nuclear power plants on spacecraft at large distances from the sun, and the kinds of scientific return provided by a deep space mission. Problems concerning a deep space link of one billion miles are also explored.
Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.
The authors analyze the influence of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and surface wind divergence on atmospheric thermodynamic structure and the resulting effects on the occurrence of deep convection using National Meteorological Center radiosonde data and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program data for July 1983-July 1985. The onset of deep convection requires not only the existence of positive convective available potential energy (CAPE), but also an unstable planetary boundary layer (PBL). A stable PBL is observed to suppress deep convection even when CAPE is positive. Variations of SST have a major effect on CAPE, but surface wind divergence can also affect deep convection by changing the lapse rate in the lower troposphere and humidity in the PBL. Specifically, when SST is greater than or equal to 28 C, CAPE is always positive, and surface wind divergence does not qualitatively change the buoyancy profile above the PBL. Strong surface wind divergence, however, stabilizes the PBL so as to suppress the initiation of deep convection. In warm SST regions, CAPE is greater than 0 regardless of assumptions about condensate loading, although the pseudoadiabatic limit is more consistent with the observed deep convection than the reversible moist-adiabatic limit under these circumstances. When SST is less than 27 C, CAPE is usually negative and inhibits convection, but strong surface wind convergence can destabilize the inversion layer and moisten the PBL enough to make the atmosphere neutrally stable in the mean. As a result, deep convection is generally enhanced either when SST is greater than or equal to 28 C in the absence of strong surface wind divergence or when strong surface wind convergence occurs even if SST is less than 27 C. The anomalous suppression of deep convection in the warm area of the equatorial west Pacific lying between the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and south Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is probably caused by dryness in the PBL and an inversion in that area. The seasonal cycles of deep convection and surface wind divergence are in phase with the maximum solar radiation and lead SST for one to three months in the central Pacific. The change of PBL relative humidity plays a critical role in the changeover to convective instability in this case. The seasonal change of deep convection and associated clouds seems not to have important effects on the seasonal change of local SST in the central Pacific.
Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable. We target this critical gap in understanding the vertical transport and removal of aerosols by deep convections. We proposed to analyze a multi-year, multi-site measurement record available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM program, including the observations from the 2014/15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, the 2017/18 Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, the 2018/19 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, the 2021/22 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign, and the long-term measurements collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, where deep convective clouds were frequently observed. This project is aimed at the following three objectives: (1) Gaining a detailed and quantitative understanding of the aerosols transported by a convective downdraft and their evolution in the atmosphere; (2) Examining the wet scavenging mechanisms and efficiencies of aerosols at altitudes of deep convective systems based on ground and aircraft measurements; (3) Evaluating the contribution of deep convective systems to CCN as both a source and a sink of atmospheric aerosols and its seasonal variabilities.
How should life support for deep space be developed? The International Space Station (ISS) life support system is the operational result of many decades of research and development. Long duration deep space missions such as Mars have been expected to use matured and upgraded versions of ISS life support. Deep space life support must use the knowledge base incorporated in ISS but it must also meet much more difficult requirements. The primary new requirement is that life support in deep space must be considerably more reliable than on ISS or anywhere in the Earth-Moon system, where emergency resupply and a quick return are possible. Due to the great distance from Earth and the long duration of deep space missions, if life support systems fail, the traditional approaches for emergency supply of oxygen and water, emergency supply of parts, and crew return to Earth or escape to a safe haven are likely infeasible. The Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) maintenance approach used by ISS is unsuitable for deep space with ORU's as large and complex as those originally provided in ISS designs because it minimizes opportunities for commonality of spares, requires replacement of many functional parts with each failure, and results in substantial launch mass and volume penalties. It has become impractical even for ISS after the shuttle era, resulting in the need for ad hoc repair activity at lower assembly levels with consequent crew time penalties and extended repair timelines. Less complex, more robust technical approaches may be needed to meet the difficult deep space requirements for reliability, maintainability, and reparability. Developing an entirely new life support system would neglect what has been achieved. The suggested approach is use the ISS life support technologies as a platform to build on and to continue to improve ISS subsystems while also developing new subsystems where needed to meet deep space requirements.
The next generation of imaging surveys, including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, will provide unprecedented constraints on cosmology using weak gravitational lensing. To fully exploit this statistical power, shear measurement methods must achieve sub- per cent accuracy while mitigating systematic biases from noise, the point-spread function (PSF), blending, and shear-dependent detection. The analytical calibration framework (AnaCal) has demonstrated such accuracy but requires adding noise to images, reducing effective depth. We introduce Deep-Field Analytical Calibration (DEEP-FIELD AnaCal), an extension of AnaCal that uses deep-field images to compute shear responses while preserving the statistical power of wide-field data. We validate DEEP-FIELD AnaCal on isolated and blended galaxy image simulations with LSST-like conditions, finding it meets the stringent requirement of multiplicative bias $|m| < 3\times 10^{-3}$ at 99.7 per cent confidence. Compared to standard AnaCal applied to wide-field images, DEEP-FIELD AnaCal increases the effective galaxy number density from 17 to 30 arcmin$^{-2}$ for simulated 10-yr LSST data. With deep fields $10\times$ longer than the wide field, we find pixel noise variance in shear estimation is reduced by 30 per cent and overall uncertainty by $\sim 25~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. Finally, using the LSST Deep Drilling Fields strategy, we assess sample variance and find an equivalent calibration uncertainty of $\lesssim 0.3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. These results demonstrate that DEEP-FIELD AnaCal offers a promising path to achieve the required shear calibration for upcoming weak lensing surveys.
Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.
Understanding how terrestrial life perceives and tolerates deep space environments is essential to advancing human space exploration missions and searching for life beyond our solar system. Throughout evolution moss adapted to living in extreme environments from the edge of habitability. Moss inhabits areas with high UVB/UVC photon levels such as polar regions subject to ozone holes, high elevation mountain environments, and sites with elevated ionizing particle levels such as those found at nuclear plant accident sites, atomic bomb test sites or radioactive element-rich regions. We investigate if moss tolerance of ionizing radiation encounter terrestrially extends to resistance to deep space ionizing radiation. We exposed moss to high energy ion beams simulating Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCRSim) and Solar Particle Event (SPESim) (NSRL, BNL) that permeate deep space, and moss was unharmed. We also exposed moss to high doses of gamma rays as released in astrophysical events, and moss survived absorption of extremely high doses. Next, we ask if moss tolerance of deep space-like ionizing radiation observed terrestrially differs from that in other deep space environments. In the upcoming BRIC-27 spaceflight experiment we will sequentially expose Antarctic moss C.purpureus to GCRSim and SPESim followed by exposure to spaceflight microgravity and compare gene expression profiles in deep space-like ionizing radiation, singular or combined with spaceflight microgravity. Additionally, we will compare gene expression profiles in spaceflight microgravity, singular or combined with deep space-like ionizing radiation. Hence, BRIC-27 will advance our understanding of the combined effects of both deep space ionizing radiation and microgravity, which may have different and more profound effects on plant physiology and performance than each condition separately.
The character of mass extinctions can be assessed by studying extinction patterns of organisms, the fabric of the extinction, and assessing the environmental niche and mode of life of survivors. Deep-sea benthic foraminifera have been listed as little affected by the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) mass extinction, but very few quantitative data are available. New data on deep-sea Late Maestrichtian-Eocene benthic foraminifera from Maud Rise (Antractica) indicate that about 10 percent of the species living at depths of 2000 to 2500 m had last appearances within 1 my of the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary, versus about 25 percent of species at 1000 to 1500 m. Many survivors from the Cretaceous became extinct in a period of global deep-sea benthic foraminiferal extinction at the end of the Paleocene, a time otherwise marked by very few extinctions. Preliminary conclusions suggest that the deep oceanic environment is essentially decoupled from the shallow marine and terrestrial environment, and that even major disturbances of one of these will not greatly affect the other. This gives deep-sea benthic faunas a good opportunity to recolonize shallow environments from greater depths and vice versa after massive extinctions. The decoupling means that data on deep-sea benthic boundary was caused by the environmental effects of asteriod impact or excessive volcanism. The benthic foraminiferal data strongly suggest, however, that the environmental results were strongest at the Earth's surface, and that there was no major disturbance of the deep ocean; this pattern might result both from excessive volcanism and from an impact on land.
Deforestation and logging degrade more forest in eastern and southern Amazonia than in any other region of the world. This forest alteration affects regional hydrology and the global carbon cycle, but our current understanding of these effects is limited by incomplete knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems. It is widely agreed that roots are concentrated near the soil surface in moist tropical forests, but this generalization incorrectly implies that deep roots are unimportant in water and C budgets. Our results indicate that half of the closed-canopy forests of Brazilian Amazonic occur where rainfall is highly seasonal, and these forests rely on deeply penetrating roots to extract soil water. Pasture vegetation extracts less water from deep soil than the forest it replaces, thus increasing rates of drainage and decreasing rates of evapotranspiration. Deep roots are also a source of modern carbon deep in the soil. The soils of the eastern Amazon contain more carbon below 1 m depth than is present in above-ground biomass. As much as 25 percent of this deep soil C could have annual to decadal turnover times and may be lost to the atmosphere following deforestation. We compared the importance of deep roots in a mature, evergreen forest with an adjacent man-made pasture, the most common type of vegetation on deforested land in Amazonia. The study site is near the town of Paragominas, in the Brazilian state of Para, with a seasonal rainfall pattern and deeply-weathered, kaolinitic soils that are typical for large portions of Amazonia. Root distribution, soil water extraction, and soil carbon dynamics were studied using deep auger holes and shafts in each ecosystem, and the phenology and water status of the leaf canopies were measured. We estimated the geographical distribution of deeply-rooting forests using satellite imagery, rainfall data, and field measurements.
We have recently reexamined more than 9000 United States previously unidentified seismic events catalogued during the Apollo landing missions and positively identified for the first time about 30 deep moonquake nests on the far side of the Moon. Although only a few of them are currently locatable, the relative arrival times among stations for the rest and presence or absence of seismic signals at particular stations suggest that either (a) the region within about $40\deg$ of the antipode is aseismic or (b) the deep interior of the Moon severely attenuates or deflects seismic waves. Aside from the obvious question of how to distinguish between such hypothetical models, this effort raised several more general questions concerning the use of deep moonquake signals to infer the structure and dynamics of the deep interior of the Moon. Among more important ones are: (1) How reliable are the seismic arrival picks from which to compute the seismic velocity variations in the Moon? (2) How do the possible lateral variations in seismic velocity affect the computed radial variation in seismic velocity at depth? (3) Can we tell more about the distribution and mechanism of deep moonquakes from the newly expanded database of identified deep moonquakes? Questions (1) and (2) are especially important because the inferred deep internal structure of the Moon depends critically on their answers. Answering these questions may demand additional data collected on future lunar missions, but some may be resolved with further examination of the existing data.
A xenon ion engine and power processor system, which was developed by the NASA Glenn Research Center in partnership with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Boeing Electron Dynamic Devices, completed nearly 3 years of operation aboard the Deep Space 1 spacecraft. The 2.3-kW ion engine, which provided primary propulsion and two-axis attitude control, thrusted for more than 16,000 hr and consumed more than 70 kg of xenon propellant. The Deep Space 1 spacecraft was launched on October 24, 1998, to validate 12 futuristic technologies, including the ion-propulsion system. After the technology validation process was successfully completed, the Deep Space 1 spacecraft flew by the small asteroid Braille on July 29, 1999. The final objective of this mission was to encounter the active comet Borrelly, which is about 6 miles long. The ion engine was on a thrusting schedule to navigate the Deep Space 1 spacecraft to within 1400 miles of the comet. Since the hydrazine used for spacecraft attitude control was in short supply, the ion engine also provided two-axis attitude control to conserve the hydrazine supply for the Borrelly encounter. The comet encounter took place on September 22, 2001. Dr. Marc Rayman, project manager of Deep Space 1 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory said, "Deep Space 1 plunged into the heart of the comet Borrelly and has lived to tell every detail of its spinetingling adventure! The images are even better than the impressive images of comet Halley taken by Europe's Giotto spacecraft in 1986." The Deep Space 1 mission, which successfully tested the 12 high-risk, advanced technologies and captured the best images ever taken of a comet, was voluntarily terminated on December 18, 2001. The successful demonstration of the 2-kW-class ion propulsion system technology is now providing mission planners with off-the-shelf flight hardware. Higher power, next generation ion propulsion systems are being developed for large flagship missions, such as outer planet explorers and sample-return missions.