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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit- Miss or signal amplitude testing. Specifically, DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. Directed DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probability of detection of defects in coatings with electronic shearography

The goal of this research was to utilize statistical methods to evaluate the probability of detection (POD) of defects in coatings using electronic shearography. The coating system utilized in the POD studies was to be the paint system currently utilized on the external casings of the NASA Space Transportation System (STS) Revised Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) boosters. The population of samples was to be large enough to determine the minimum defect size for 90 percent probability of detection of 95 percent confidence POD on these coatings. Also, the best methods to excite coatings on aerospace components to induce deformations for measurement by electronic shearography were to be determined.

Maddux, Gary A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Terahertz Imaging and Backscatter Radiography Probability of Detection Study for Space Shuttle Foam Inspections

This slide presentation reviews the use of terahertz imaging and Backscatter Radiography in a probability of detection study of the foam on the external tank (ET) shedding and damaging the shuttle orbiter. Non-destructive Examination (NDE) is performed as one method of preventing critical foam debris during the launch. Conventional NDE methods for inspection of the foam are assessed and the deficiencies are reviewed. Two methods for NDE inspection are reviewed: Backscatter Radiography (BSX) and Terahertz (THZ) Imaging. The purpose of the Probability of Detection (POD) study was to assess performance and reliability of the use of BSX and or THZ as an appropriate NDE method. The study used a test article with inserted defects, and a sample of blanks included to test for false positives. The results of the POD study are reported.

Ussery, Warren↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1979

Pioneer Venus Star Sensor

The design predictions and orbital performance verification of the solid state star scanner used in the Onboard Attitude Control of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Multiprobe are presented. The star sensor extended the scanner use to active despin control, and it differs from previous sensors in solid state detection, redundant electronics for reliability, larger field of view, and large dynamic spin range. The star scanner hardware and design performance based on the ability to predict all noise sources, signal magnitudes, and expected detection probability are discussed. In-flight data collected to verify sensor ground calibration are tabulated and plotted in predicted accuracy curves. It is concluded that the Pioneer Venus Star Sensor has demonstrated predictable star calibration in the range of .1 magnitude uncertainties and usable star catalogs of 100 stars with very high probabilities of detection, which were much better than expected and well within the mission requirements.

Gutshall, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optimum detection of tones transmitted by a spacecraft

The performance of a scheme proposed for automated routine monitoring of deep-space missions is presented. The scheme uses four different tones (sinusoids) transmitted from the spacecraft (S/C) to a ground station with the positive identification of each of them used to indicate different states of the S/C. Performance is measured in terms of detection probability versus false alarm probability with detection signal-to-noise ratio as a parameter. The cases where the phase of the received tone is unknown and where both the phase and frequency of the received tone are unknown are treated separately. The decision rules proposed for detecting the tones are formulated from average-likelihood ratio and maximum-likelihood ratio tests, the former resulting in optimum receiver structures.

Simon, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Directed Design of Experiments (DOE) for Determining Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

This viewgraph presentation reviews some of the issues that people who specialize in Non destructive evaluation (NDE) have with determining the statistics of the probability of detection. There is discussion of the use of the binominal distribution, and the probability of hit. The presentation then reviews the concepts of Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection of Inspection Systems (DOEPOD). Several cases are reviewed, and discussed. The concept of false calls is also reviewed.

Generazio, Ed↗
NASA NTRS2021

Guidebook for Limited Sample Probability of Detection (LS-POD) Demonstration for Signal-Response Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Methods

This document provides guidance for performing limited sample probability of detection (LS-POD) demonstration testing with smaller numbers of flawed specimens than the 29 required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B. This document is specifically applicable to NASA programs and projects where NASA Special NDE methods are used to inspect fracture critical human spaceflight metallic hardware when the minimum number of flawed specimens required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B (2019) are not available.

Limited Sample Probability of Detection↗
DOE OSTI2018

Standardizing Acquisition Path Analysis: Quantifying a State’s Ability to Establish and Clandestinely Operate an Undeclared Nuclear Facility of a Given Type

Acquisition path analysis is an important tool for developing safeguards strategies as it allows for the determination and assessment of all technically plausible paths a state may pursue to obtain weapons usable nuclear material. A state may obtain such material either through diverting declared material, misusing a declared facility to produce undeclared material, producing undeclared material in a clandestine facility, illicitly importing undeclared material, or combinations of these actions. In states with a comprehensive safeguards agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has mechanisms in place to detect the diversion of declared material or the misuse of a declared facility for undeclared production, and it can adjust the frequency and intensity of those mechanisms to achieve specific detection probability and timeliness goals. The IAEA also has tools to look for and investigate indications of clandestine nuclear facilities or undeclared imports of nuclear material, but it only has limited control over the actual effectiveness of those measures. However, quantifying a state’s technical capability to establish and clandestinely operate an undeclared facility of a given type or to import nuclear material and quantifying the probability that it will evade detection are both much more difficult. By looking at a facility’s detection susceptibility as opposed to explicit detection probability, this research uses a new approach to score detection risks. Using these risks, along with a more structured approach to determine a state’s capability of establishing and operating a clandestine nuclear facility, this research develops a methodology to quantify a state’s ability to successfully construct and operate a clandestine facility without detection. This research considers the use of this methodology when evaluating each undeclared import path step.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals

Small sample size (e.g.6-30) poses risk in results of probability of detection (POD) analysis using tolerance intervals. This method is also called as the limited sample or LS POD. The analysis is performed either during NDE procedure qualification or for assessment of reliability of an NDE procedure. The risk is primarily due to sampling error. Smaller samples are not likely to be random to the population or representative of the population. The small samples are likely to be biased. Biased samples have smaller standard deviation compared to the population. POD analysis with small biased sample can lead to overestimation of POD. Many sampling schemes are available in statistics to mitigate sampling risk. Primary objective of POD analysis is to determine a decision threshold from signal response measurements of a sample such that it is less than or equal to population decision threshold for 90% POD. Sampling error implies that this NDE reliability condition is violated. One of sampling types is called a representative sample. Representative samples reduce variance in POD estimates but also reduce magnitude of the error. Sampling sensitivity analysis for some sampling types is performed here using repetitive random sampling or Monte Carlo method. Six sampling types are considered for comparison. Some of the sampling types are similar to drawing a representative sample. LS POD model assumes random sampling. Therefore, random sampling is used as a basis for comparison with each sampling type. The sampling types used in the analysis are, A. Nominal and worst-case sampling, B. Worst-case sampling, C. Nominal case sampling, D. Random sampling, E. Random target, and sub-target sampling. F. Nominal target and sub-target sampling. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicate that type F sampling can mitigate sampling risk and is also more practical to implement. Type A sampling may also mitigate the sampling risk, but it may be less practical to implement.

Ajay M Koshti↗
NASA NTRS2022

Guidebook for the Design and Analysis of a NASA Standard Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Study

Purpose: This document provides guidance on the design and analysis of a NASA Standard nondestructive evaluation (NDE) probability of detection (POD) study. A Standard NDE flaw size is considered to be conservative such that most inspectors, trained and certified in the specific NDE method, are expected to provide at least 90/95 POD for that flaw size to inspect fracture-critical hardware. Scope: This document is specifically applicable to NASA Technical Standards that establish the NDE requirements for any NASA system or component, flight or ground, where fracture control and a quantitative demonstration of POD is a requirement, including NASA-STD-5009B, Nondestructive Evaluation Requirements for Fracture-Critical Metallic Components, and NASA-STD-5019A,Fracture Control Requirements for Spaceflight Hardware.

Probability of Detection↗
NASA NTRS2008

Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability

The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.

Parker, Bradford H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Site-wide occupancy assessment using camera traps for seven mammalian species at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory) is committed to solving national security challenges through scientific excellence and has been serving the nation and northern New Mexico for over 70 years. Being located on the Pajarito Plateau in the eastern flanks of the Jemez Mountains, the Laboratory is surrounded by a rich diversity of plants and animals. It is common to see many different species of wildlife on Laboratory property; however, sometimes interactions with wildlife can be negative. Vehicle accidents with wildlife have become a common occurrence. With the current and ongoing expansion of the Laboratory on the Pajarito Plateau, it has the potential to further impact wildlife movement including large game species. Local agencies and tribal Pueblos rely on large game species and do not want these species to be restricted from moving across property boundaries. Temporal and spatial aspects of where wildlife occur on the site is a phenomena that is either not well understood in uncommon species or needs periodic reevaluation for common species. Estimating the distribution of multiple species across the landscape provides wildlife biologists with crucial information for monitoring and conserving animal populations in a particular area. Utilizing motion activated wildlife cameras, also known as camera traps, to monitor wildlife populations has become an essential tool for biologists. Camera traps are non-invasive and cost-effective and can document multiple elusive or uncommon wildlife species, such as carnivores, simultaneously. Occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework for the analysis of the distribution for multiple wildlife species. It explicitly recognizes whether a species is spatially common or rare (occupancy = ψ) and if that species is easy or hard to detect (detection probability = p ). Multispecies and multi-season occupancy models can detect trends in species occupancy because individual species may vary in seasonal movements, detection probability, and transition rates between habitats. In this study, we assessed the site as a whole to ascertain when and where medium and large mammal species are present. Understanding wildlife patterns at the Laboratory will better inform future management decisions regarding land use and development strategies. We placed motion activated wildlife cameras in a random systematic sampling design and used these data to create occupancy models. We tested for differences in single-species occupancy and detection probability by season of mammal species captured on 20 camera traps placed across the Laboratory in a 40 mi² (103 km²) area. We focus the interpretation of our findings on seven mammal species found during this study. They are Rocky Mountain elk ( Cervus canadensis nelsoni ; hereafter “elk”), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ; hereafter “deer”), mountain lion ( Puma concolor ; hereafter “lion”), American black bear ( Ursus americanus ; hereafter “bear”), coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), and gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ; hereafter “fox”).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Temperature compensated transfer function for probability of detection (POD) in high temperature ultrasonic NDE using low temperature signals - 249

Ultrasonic piezoelectric based transducers offer the potential for in-coolant NDT measurements and imaging required at high temperature for the safe operation of advanced small modular reactors (SMRs). Current work estimates a significant 97% reduction in the probability of detection (POD) for an artificial flaw size of 2{lambda} due to degradation of the transducer performance at elevated temperature. The source of variability for POD in the current work is the temperature dependence of material matrix of piezoelectric material PZT-5A used in the sensor. The physics based model developed using finite element method quantifies reduction in the scattering amplitude for the side drilled hole (SDH) from 15 C to 195 C. Using model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) approach, sensor temperature effect on the POD is demonstrated for SDHs in the low carbon steel specimen. Scattering amplitudes for the room temperature simulated data is validated with the experimental data. A temperature correction factor and transfer factors are reported to transform the simulated temperature effect from physics based model to the experimental data for estimation of high temperature POD using low temperature ultrasonic measurements. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection

The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of detection (POD) of cracks in various metals. NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants for NASA Standard Level inspections. This requirement is based on the fact that the data used to establish the reliably detectable flaw sizes penetrant inspection was from studies performed in the 1970s using penetrant deemed to be equivalent only to modern day sensitivity level 4 penetrants. However, many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process. We propose a study to compare the POD generated for two penetrant manufactures, Sherwin and Magnaflux, and for the two most common penetrant inspection methods, water washable and post emulsifiable, hydrophilic. NDE vendors local to GSFC will be employed. A total of six inspectors will inspect a set of crack panels with a broad range of fatigue crack sizes. Each inspector will perform eight inspections of the panel set using the combination of methods and sensitivity levels described above. At least one inspector will also perform multiple inspections using a fixed technique to investigate repeatability. The hit/miss data sets will be evaluated using both the NASA generated DOEPOD software and the MIL-STD-1823 software.

Parker, Bradford H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probability of detection of defects in coatings with electronic shearography

The goal of this research was to utilize statistical methods to evaluate the probability of detection (POD) of defects in coatings using electronic shearography. The coating system utilized in the POD studies was to be the paint system currently utilized on the external casings of the NASA space transportation system reusable solid rocket motor boosters. The population of samples was to be large enough to determine the minimum defect size for 90-percent POD of 95-percent confidence POD on these coatings. Also, the best methods to excite coatings on aerospace components to induce deformations for measurement by electronic shearography were to be determined.

Russell, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Directed Design of Experiments (DOE) for Determining Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

This viewgraph presentation reviews some of the problems that are encountered by designers of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) have in determining the probability of detection. According to the author "[the] NDE community should not blindly accept statistical results due to lack of knowledge." This is an attempt to bridge the gap between people doing NDE, and statisticians.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection

The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of crack detection (POD). NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants. This requirement is based on the fact that the data generated in the NTIAC Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Capabilities Data Book was produced using only sensitivity level 4 penetrants. Many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process.

Parker, Bradford H.↗