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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Factors Influencing Gas Evolution from High‐Nickel Layered Oxide Cathodes in Lithium‐Based Batteries

Abstract Gas evolution from high‐nickel layered oxide cathodes (>90% Ni) remains a major issue for their practical application. Gaseous species, such as CO 2 , O 2 , and CO, that are evolved at high states of charge (SOC) worsen the overall safety of batteries, as pressure build‐up within the cell may lead to cell rupture. Since these gasses are produced during cathode degradation, tracking the formation of gasses is also important in diagnosing cathode failure. Online electrochemical mass spectrometry (OEMS) is a powerful in situ technique to study gas evolution from the cathode during high‐voltage charge. However, the differences in the OEMS experimental setups between different groups make it challenging to compare results between groups. In this perspective, the various factors that influence gas evolution based on the OEMS results collected in this group are presented. The focus is on the conditions that lead to gas release, with a particular emphasis on reactive oxygen formation and subsequent chemical reactions with the electrolyte. Promising strategies, such as electrolytes, compositional tuning, and surface coatings that are effective at suppressing gas evolution from the cathode are highlighted. Critical insights into mitigating cathode degradation and gas evolution are provided to guide the development of safer, high‐energy batteries.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bias‐Dependent Quantum Efficiency Reveals Recombination Pathways in Thin Film Solar Cells

Identifying where recombination predominantly occurs—whether at the front interface, back interface, or throughout the bulk—is crucial for optimizing CdSeTe solar cells and many other photovoltaic device architectures. Here, a simple and effective diagnostic is demonstrated: measuring external quantum efficiency (QE) under varying forward biases. The drift–diffusion simulations reveal that each recombination pathway leaves a distinct bias-induced signature in the normalized QE: a progressive drop at long wavelengths for back-limited devices, a short-wavelength decline for front-limited devices, and a relatively uniform decrease across all wavelengths for bulk-limited devices. These predictions are validated with experiments on As-doped and Cu-doped CdSeTe devices, with and without passivation layers or different front buffers. In each case, the observed bias-dependent QE spectral changes align with the simulated recombination map. Because this method uses standard QE instrumentation, it offers a broadly accessible and cost-efficient means to diagnose recombination pathways—extending beyond CdSeTe to other thin-film and emerging solar cell technologies. By pinpointing recombination bottlenecks, researchers and manufacturers can strategically refine doping profiles, passivation schemes, and interface designs to further improve device performance.

CdTe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum AI Based Enhanced Detection of Dementia

Quantum computing has the potential to significantly improve the early detection of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD). Quantum-enhanced machine learning can be used to perform an early screening of Alzheimer's disease using brain imaging data based on dataset of MRI scans from both healthy individuals and those diagnosed with Alzheimer's. This study aims to demonstrate the potential of quantum transfer learning to enhance the performance of the classical deep learning model for dementia detection. Using the MRI sagittal images available in the OASIS-2 (64 demented and 72 non-demented subjects between 60 and 96 years), we show how quantum techniques can transform a suboptimal classical model into a more effective solution for dementia detection, highlighting their potential impact on advancing healthcare technology. We begin with a simple classical deep learning model with a significantly smaller number of parameters, which gives suboptimal performance on the problem. Then, we apply different configurations of quantum transfer learning based on the pre-trained weak classifier (Figure 1). We fix the weak classifier's initial convolutional layers at their fixed pre-trained parameters and replace the last set of dense layers with a dressed quantum circuit (DQN), which we train to enhance performance. We performed 4-fold cross-validation for both the classical and the hybrid quantum models and trained them using Pennylane's `default.qubit' simulator and IonQ's Aria-1 simulator (noisy simulation). We showed that with significantly fewer parameters, the quantum transfer learning-based hybrid models showed significant performance enhancement over the base weak classical deep learning model for dementia detection. To classify between a demented and non-demented subject, the accuracy of quantum-based AI methods improved by 6 to 14% compared to classical methods. The sensitivity of the models improved by 4 to 17%. This shows that there are fewer chances of misclassifying demented patients. Figure 2 compares the performance of the hybrid quantum models and their base classical model, and Table 1 summarizes the results. We illustrated that with assistance from quantum machine learning, it is possible to enhance detection for dementia based on brain images. This shows the potential for practical utility of quantum computing in ADRD research.

Bhowmik, Sounak [University of Tennessee, Knoxvill↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designer Fluorescent Redoxmer Self‐Reports Side Reactions in Nonaqueous Redox Flow Batteries

The state of health (SOH) is a critical measure for evaluating and predicting performance of redox flow batteries (RFBs). However, diagnosing SOH of RFBs is often challenging due to the overwhelming complexity of the electrolytes and associated electrochemical reactions. Designing active molecules or redoxmers that can autonomously exhibit property changes upon specific stimuli may provide a viable way for early diagnosis of SOH. Herein, a dimerized redoxmer, DGL-N-CH 3 , was designed and synthesized by linking blue-green fluorescent monomers through a diglycolamide linker. While DGL-N-CH 3 still maintains similar electrochemical behavior and strong fluorescence, we observe a unique side reaction when cycling DGL-N-CH 3 in H-cells, which leads to a side product, NHCH 3 -BzNSN via linker cleavage. Interestingly, NHCH 3 -BzNSN also emits fluorescence but at a longer wavelength. By taking advantage of this unique fluorescent change that corresponds to the growth of NHCH 3 -BzNSN, we successfully established the capacity decay of DGL-N-CH 3 H-cell cycling, exemplifying a proof-of-concept self-reporting redoxmer design towards in situ SOH monitoring.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

All the light we cannot see: Climate manipulations leave short and long‐term imprints in spectral reflectance of trees

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change, particularly changes in temperature and precipitation, affects plants in multiple ways. Because plants respond dynamically to stress and acclimate to changes in growing conditions, diagnosing quantitative plant‐environment relationships is a major challenge. One approach to this problem is to quantify leaf responses using spectral reflectance, which provides rapid, inexpensive, and nondestructive measurements that capture a wealth of information about genotype as well as phenotypic responses to the environment. However, it is unclear how warming and drought affect spectra. To address this gap, we used an open‐air field experiment that manipulates temperature and rainfall in 36 plots at two sites in the boreal‐temperate ecotone of northern Minnesota, USA. We collected leaf spectral reflectance (400–2400 nm) at the peak of the growing season for three consecutive years on juveniles (two to six years old) of five tree species planted within the experiment. We hypothesized that these mid‐season measurements of spectral reflectance capture a snapshot of the leaf phenotype encompassing a suite of physiological, structural, and biochemical responses to both long‐ and short‐time scale environmental conditions. We show that the imprint of environmental conditions experienced by plants hours to weeks before spectral measurements is linked to regions in the spectrum associated with stress, namely the water absorption regions of the near‐infrared and short‐wave infrared. In contrast, the environmental conditions plants experience during leaf development leave lasting imprints on the spectral profiles of leaves, attributable to leaf structure and chemistry (e.g., pigment content and associated ratios). Our analyses show that after accounting for baseline species spectral differences, spectral responses to the environment do not differ among the species. This suggests that building a general framework for understanding forest responses to climate change through spectral metrics may be possible, likely having broader implications if the common responses among species detected here represent a widespread phenomenon. Consequently, these results demonstrate that examining the entire spectrum of leaf reflectance for environmental imprints in contrast to single features (e.g., indices and traits) improves inferences about plant‐environment relationships, which is particularly important in times of unprecedented climate change.

Stefanski, Artur [Department of Forest Resources U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding ERE and iVOC Metrics for Graded CdSeTe Absorbers

PL-based external radiative efficiency (ERE) and implied open-circuit voltage (iVOC) metrics were introduced for thin-film solar absorbers to better understand the voltage deficit and diagnose losses in solar cells. Traditionally, elevated ERE and iVOC measurements are associated with diminished recombination within the solar device, a rationale heavily reliant on the assumption of a uniform bandgap and high carrier mobilities in the absorber. Recently, very low mobilities in CdSeTe absorbers (< 1 cm2/(V.s)) were measured using the light-induced transient grading technique. In this study, we use a detailed numerical model of iVOC to investigate the possible reasons of elevated iVOC in realistic CdSeTe absorbers with a graded Se profile. In particular, we examine how the bandgap nonuniformity and the reduced hole mobility in graded CdSeTe absorbers affect iVOC measurements. We show that high iVOC may result from inflated quasi-Fermi level splitting in the high-Se region in the front part of a CdSeTe absorber with slow hole transport. We reproduce the experimentally reported 360 mV increase in iVOC-VOC gap with reduced doping using a model with sub-1 cm2/(V.s) hole mobility in the high-Se region. Based on our results, we conclude that the iVOC metric (or ERE metric) should not be used as a sole metric of CdSeTe absorber quality. We discuss possible ways to extract useful information from the iVOC-VOC gap by supplementing the front-side illumination measurements with back-side illumination measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interfacial and Kinetic Origins of Voltage Loss in Neutral Zinc‐Air Batteries

Rechargeable zinc-air batteries are promising candidates for grid-scale energy storage; however, their practical deployment is limited by oxygen electrocatalysis inefficiencies and interfacial instabilities, particularly outside conventional alkaline electrolytes. Here, in this work, zinc-air batteries operating under neutral electrolyte conditions using ZnCl 2 soaked KC-PAA-PAM gel polymer electrolytes and electrochemically synthesized Ni/Fe layered double hydroxide electrocatalysts is investigated. Ni/Fe-LDH is intentionally employed as an OER-biased benchmark catalyst to diagnose electrolyte and interface driven limitations rather than as a bifunctional ORR/OER solution. Full cells exhibit highly stable cycling over hundreds of hours, yet operate at substantially suppressed charge and discharge voltages relative to the thermodynamic value. Electrochemical impedance analysis shows that ohmic losses contribute only minimally to this voltage suppression. Post-mortem X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy reveals metallic zinc accumulation on the air cathode and chloride-containing species on the anode, indicating parasitic interfacial processes. Synchrotron-based soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy confirms stable Ni 2+ and Fe 3+ oxidation states during cycling, consistent with OER-biased catalytic behavior, while neutral-electrolyte oxygen evolution measurements demonstrate strong electrolyte-induced suppression of oxygen kinetics. Together, these results show that electrolyte chemistry and cathode-side parasitic processes, rather than catalyst identity alone, dominate voltage losses in neutral zinc-air batteries, providing mechanistic insight into the fundamental challenges associated with neutral electrolyte operation.

Long duration energy storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

The structure of quantum singularities on a Cauchy horizon

Spacetime singularities pose a long-standing puzzle in quantum gravity. Unlike Schwarzschild, a generic family of black holes gives rise to a Cauchy horizon on which, even in the Hartle-Hawking state, quantum observables such as ⟨T μν ⟩ — the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor — can diverge, causing a breakdown of semiclassical gravity. Because they are diagnosed within quantum field theory (QFT) on a smooth background, these singularities may provide a better-controlled version of the spacetime singularity problem, and merit further study. Here, I highlight a mildness puzzle of Cauchy horizon singularities: the ⟨T μν ⟩ singularity is significantly milder than expected from symmetry and dimensional analysis. I address the puzzle in a simple spacetime ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, which arises universally near all black hole Cauchy horizons: the past of a codimension-two spacelike plane in flat spacetime. Specifically, I propose an extremely broad QFT construction in which, roughly speaking, Cauchy horizon singularities originate from operator insertions in the causal complement of the spacetime. The construction reproduces well-known outer horizon singularities (e.g., in the Boulware state), and remarkably, when applied to ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, gives rise to a universal mild singularity structure for robust singularities, ones whose leading singular behavior is state-independent. I make non-trivial predictions for all black hole Cauchy horizon singularities using this, and discuss extending the results beyond robust singularities and the strict near Cauchy horizon limit.

black holes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Out-of-time-ordered-correlators for the pure inverted quartic oscillator: classical chaos meets quantum stability

Out-of-time-ordered-correlators (OTOCs) have been suggested as a means to diagnose chaotic behavior in quantum mechanical systems. Recently, it was found that OTOCs display exponential growth for the inverted quantum harmonic oscillator, mirroring the fact that this system is classically and quantum mechanically unstable. In this work, I study OTOCs for the inverted anharmonic (pure quartic) oscillator in quantum mechanics, finding only oscillatory behavior despite the classically unstable nature of the system. For higher temperature, OTOCs seem to exhibit saturation consistent with a value of –2< x 2 > T < p 2 > T at late times. I provide analytic evidence from the spectral zeta-function and the WKB method as well as direct numerical solutions of the Schrödinger equation that the inverted quartic oscillator possesses a real and positive energy eigenspectrum, and normalizable wave-functions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection System for Online Data Quality Monitoring of the CMS Electromagnetic Calorimeter

The CMS detector is a general-purpose apparatus that detects high-energy collisions produced at the LHC. Online data quality monitoring of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter is a vital operational tool that allows detector experts to quickly identify, localize, and diagnose a broad range of detector issues that could affect the quality of physics data. A real-time autoencoder-based anomaly detection system using semi-supervised machine learning is presented enabling the detection of anomalies in the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter data. A novel method is introduced which maximizes the anomaly detection performance by exploiting the time-dependent evolution of anomalies as well as spatial variations in the detector response. The autoencoder-based system is able to efficiently detect anomalies, while maintaining a very low false discovery rate. The performance of the system is validated with anomalies found in 2018 and 2022 LHC collision data. In addition, the first results from deploying the autoencoder-based system in the CMS online data quality monitoring workflow during the beginning of Run 3 of the LHC are presented, showing its ability to detect issues missed by the existing system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

NanoPSD: A software for automatic detection of Nano-Particle Shape Distribution in electron microscopy images

Accurate quantification of the size and morphology of nanoparticles from electron microscopy (EM) images is essential to understand growth mechanisms, surface reactivity, and functional behavior in nanoscale materials. Manual analysis remains slow, subjective, and difficult to reproduce in large datasets. We introduce NanoPSD (Nano-Particle Shape Distribution), an open-source and fully automated framework for quantitative particle detection and morphology analysis from EM images. NanoPSD integrates adaptive contrast enhancement, polarity-agnostic scale-bar detection, Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based calibration, and classical segmentation via Otsu thresholding with morphological refinement. Particle contours are used to extract geometric descriptors, including equivalent circular diameter, aspect ratio, circularity, and solidity, enabling automated classification into spherical, rod-like, and aggregate morphologies. The framework supports both single-image and batch processing, generating publication-quality visualizations, LaTeX-ready tables, and structured comma-separated values (CSV) datasets. As a demonstration, we applied NanoPSD to plasma-synthesized nanoparticle samples diagnosed via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The code produced statistically robust size and morphology distributions spanning a few to tens of nanometers with minimal user supervision. The pipeline demonstrates high reproducibility and scalability, processing large image collections with consistent calibration and output formatting. Its modular design enables seamless integration of future deep-learning-based segmentation models, providing a pathway toward intelligent, data-driven electron microscopy analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consistent performance of large language models in rare disease diagnosis across ten languages and 4917 cases

Background Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used medicine for diverse applications including differential diagnostic support. The training data used to create LLMs such as the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) predominantly consist of English-language texts, but LLMs could be used across the globe to support diagnostics if language barriers could be overcome. Initial pilot studies on the utility of LLMs for differential diagnosis in languages other than English have shown promise, but a large-scale assessment on the relative performance of these models in a variety of European and non-European languages on a comprehensive corpus of challenging rare-disease cases is lacking. Methods We created 4917 clinical vignettes using structured data captured with Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) terms with the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) Phenopacket Schema. These clinical vignettes span a total of 360 distinct genetic diseases with 2525 associated phenotypic features. We used translations of the Human Phenotype Ontology together with language-specific templates to generate prompts in English, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Spanish, and Turkish. We applied GPT-4o, version gpt-4o-2024-08-06, and the medically fine-tuned Meditron3-70B to the task of delivering a ranked differential diagnosis using a zero-shot prompt. An ontology-based approach with the Mondo disease ontology was used to map synonyms and to map disease subtypes to clinical diagnoses in order to automate evaluation of LLM responses. Findings For English, GPT-4o placed the correct diagnosis at the first rank 19.9% and within the top-3 ranks 27.0% of the time. In comparison, for the nine non-English languages tested here the correct diagnosis was placed at rank 1 between 16.9% and 20.6%, within top-3 between 25.4% and 28.6% of cases. The Meditron3 model placed the correct diagnosis within the first 3 ranks for 20.9% of cases in English and between 19.9% and 24.0% for the other nine languages. Interpretation The differential diagnostic performance of LLMs across a comprehensive corpus of rare-disease cases was largely consistent across the ten languages tested. This suggests that the utility of LLMs in clinical settings may extend to non-English clinical settings.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

The importance of cycle-by-cycle data in performing rapid battery technology development and validation

Lithium-ion battery (LiB) technology is playing a crucial role in transforming the predominantly fossil fuel-based transportation and stationary storage sectors to achieve a low-carbon economy. Rapid innovation in the LiB materials to electrode to cell design is happening to satisfy the performance, life, and safety metrics required by those myriads of applications. Lately, advanced analytics, such as machine-learning or artificial intelligence (ML/AI) techniques, are being used more frequently to aid in expedited LiB technology development, performance validation, and life prediction. The success of these techniques often relies on a large volume of well-defined and high-quality battery test data. On the other hand, most battery developers and research and development (R&D) communities are still following a classical approach to develop batteries, which is running calendar- and/or cycle-aging tests, performing reference performance tests (RPTs), and conducting post-mortem analyses periodically without paying attention to the wealth of data often not collected during the calendar or cycle life aging tests. This sparse data collection approach is time- and resource-intensive, requiring data capture and evaluation of months to years of RPT data to diagnose accurate battery state of performance, health, and safety. Even so, the underlying aging modes and mechanisms can be missed. If collected properly, battery test data during cycling or calendaring can be efficiently combined with ML/AI techniques to create powerful tools in the rapid diagnosis of battery state of performance, health, and safety along with insights into underlying aging modes and mechanisms. In this report, we discuss the importance of effective cycle-by-cycle (CBC) data collection with example case studies. Within a reasonable timeframe, RPT data are often inadequate in capturing many of the crucial battery aging dynamics, which often predominantly show up in CBC test data. Finally, we also show examples of ML/AI techniques that use CBC data in rapid diagnosis and projection of LiB state of health (SOH) to motivate the scientific community in collecting and using CBC data to facilitate expeditious technology development and validation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part I: Implementation and multi-fidelity hierarchies for the single-particle model

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. Here, this study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models - such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model - with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/PINNSTRIPES). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of drug repurposing candidates for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using electronic health records: a retrospective cohort study

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a life expectancy of only 3–5 years and few approved treatments. To identify drug repurposing candidates for the treatment of ALS, we analysed the electronic health records (EHRs) of a large cohort of military veterans with ALS. We analysed the EHRs of individuals in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) database who were diagnosed with ALS between Jan 1, 2009 and Dec 31, 2019 to assess medication effects. Individuals without recorded prescriptions after the date of diagnosis were excluded. Two sets of criteria were applied to ascertain exposure. Exposure criteria A were met if the dispense date or the end date of the medication was within 12 months of ALS diagnosis and the end date was at least 6 months after the dispense date. Exposure criteria B were met if there were at least two dispenses within 6 months before diagnosis and 12 months after diagnosis. Propensity score-matched control groups were generated on the basis of confounders included in the EHR, with methodology of potential outcomes used to infer treatment effects. The primary outcome was death. A standard Cox proportional hazards analysis was done to assess association with survival. Survival was defined as the time from diagnosis date recorded in the EHR to death reported in the Department for Veterans Affairs Vital Status File. Follow-up survival time was censored on Dec 31, 2020, for those alive on this date. Downstream protein targets of drugs with clinically significant effects were analysed using the protein–protein interaction networks-based algorithm PathFX. The EHRs of 11 003 individuals with ALS in the VHA database were appropriate for analysis. 162 medications with treatment groups of 30 or more individuals were identified. Among these 162 medications, 27 were associated with statistically significant changes (≥0·1) in the hazard ratio (HR) for death. 18 of the medications were associated with a reduced HR for death (prolonged survival), and nine were associated with an increased HR for death (reduced survival). Drugs associated with reduced HR included HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (simvastatin, pravastatin, lovastatin, and atorvastatin), PDE5 inhibitors (vardenafil and sildenafil), and α-adrenergic antagonists (tamsulosin and terazosin). The medications associated with an increased HR were drugs used either in the management of clinical features of ALS associated with poor outcomes or in end-of-life care. PathFx analysis identified a complex of proteins interacting with several of the identified drugs. To our knowledge, this analysis is the largest EHR-based study for identifying drug repurposing candidates for ALS. We identified several drugs that warrant further assessment as therapeutic options in ALS, as well as a protein network complex that might serve as a therapeutic target for ALS.

Reimer, Richard J. [Stanford Univ., CA (United Sta↗