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DOE OSTI2025

Celestial Topology, Symmetry Theories, and Evidence for a NonSUSY D3‐Brane CFT

Symmetry Theories (SymThs) provide a flexible framework for analyzing the global categorical symmetries of a D -dimensional QFT D in terms of a (D + 1)-dimensional bulk system SymTh D+1 . In QFTs realized via local string backgrounds, these SymThs naturally arise from dimensional reduction of the linking boundary geometry. To track possible time dependent effects we introduce a celestial generalization of the standard “boundary at infinity” of a SymTh. As an application of these considerations we revisit large N quiver gauge theories realized by spacetime filling D3-branes probing a non-supersymmetric orbifold $\mathbb{R}$ 6 /Γ. Comparing the imprint of symmetry breaking on the celestial geometry at small and large ‘t Hooft coupling we find evidence for an intermediate symmetry preserving conformal fixed point.

conformal field theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward memory-efficient melt pool monitoring: a classification framework using event-based imaging and sparse sensing technique

Vision sensors like CMOS and CCD cameras are often used for in-process monitoring of melt pools in laser-based additive and welding processes, but they require transferring large amounts of data and computational processing resources. Event-based neuromorphic imagery, on the other hand, detects only the change in pixel intensity, thus potentially reducing the data amount and latency. With an event imager, this study develops a framework for melt pool condition classification, including image construction, time scale selection, optimal pixel selection, and sparse classification, to achieve a highly memory-efficient scheme. These are based on sparse sensing techniques with singular value decomposition (SVD) and QR pivoting, the two fundamental matrix transformations for linear dimensionality reduction. The framework is then validated by classifying a controlled experiment by exciting various mode shapes of liquid gallium pools of varying depths (3, 6, and 8 mm). At 200 pixels, the classifier can reach overall accuracy of 75%, while at 2000 pixels (0.013% of the total possible pixels), the accuracy is nearly 90% (89.86%). At the same number of pixels, random selection can only achieve 46% and 67%, respectively. The memory savings of the sparsely sampled event data compared to a conventional imager is about 500 times. In addition to performance, implementation and limitations of the framework are also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Microstructure Variability in Laser Powder Bed Fusion 316 L Stainless Steel Microstructures with Spatial Statistics

Here, we have explored data-driven methods for material microstructure quantification that improve sensitivity to microstructural changes compared to traditional approaches. The methods integrate multiple microstructural properties, including grain morphology, crystallographic orientation, and material phase information. The simpler method employs maps of the Euclidean distance transformation metric to evaluate the morphology of grain boundary networks. The more intensive approach employs generalized spherical harmonic mapping for crystallographic orientations, per-pixel phase information, and a variational auto-encoder for dimensionality reduction and results in a multidimensional clustering of by microstructure similarity. Applied to an experimental dataset of additively manufactured steel, both methods detected slight variations in samples produced under nominally identical processing conditions. Both methods were able to distinguish between samples from multiple (nominally identical) builds, while the generalized spherical harmonics-based method could additionally cluster data samples rotated at two orientations on the build plate. The improved sensitivity of the methods, demonstrated through comparison with traditional microstructure characterization techniques, offers advantages for microstructure quantification and comparisons in advanced manufacturing applications.

SS316L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Online task-space motion control for positioner-coordinated multi-robot manufacturing systems

Incorporating multiple robotic manipulators into large-scale manufacturing systems enhances production efficiency and expands manufacturing capabilities beyond those of single-robot systems. Workpiece positioners in robotic manufacturing have demonstrated significant benefits for process optimization, but coordination strategies for multi-robot systems with shared positioners have received limited attention. This work presents a task-space coordinated trajectory-tracking control framework for multi-robot manufacturing systems, in which robots coordinate their motions within a shared, dynamic workpiece positioning frame. A workpiece positioner actively adjusts the pose of the manufactured component to enable greater operational concurrency and improve overall production efficiency. The proposed motion-coordination scheme employs a distributed and scalable architecture, supporting coordination across heterogeneous multi-robot systems. Two optimization methodologies are introduced to manage kinematic redundancies and maintain continuous, near-optimal operation throughout the manufacturing process. The first strategy exploits a task-space dimensionality reduction to achieve locally optimal configurations by leveraging symmetry-axis rotations of the tool. The second strategy utilizes the workpiece positioner to drive the coordinated robots toward stable and kinematically favorable configurations. For both optimization strategies, multiple objectives are defined to improve key performance metrics, including manipulability, configuration consistency, proximity to mechanical limits, and motion efficiency. Addressing a key limitation of existing coordination approaches, the framework is designed around online setpoint modification, allowing coordinated robots to respond effectively to in-situ process feedback. The proposed control framework is validated using the Robot Operating System (ROS) middleware on a combination of physical and simulated multi-robot system hardware.

Arbogast, Alex [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000154740723)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Navigating Large Chemical Spaces Using Graph Theory and Integer Programming

Navigating and analyzing large chemical spaces are necessary to accelerate the design and discovery of new molecules and chemical processes. In this work, we introduce a computational framework that integrates graph theory and integer programming to enable the efficient navigation of large chemical spaces. Our framework represents the chemical space as a graph, wherein nodes represent molecules and edges represent the degree of similarity or connectivity based on domain-specific information. Using the graph representation, we identify representative molecules by computing the so-called minimum dominating set (MDS), which in our context is the minimum set of molecules that is connected to all other molecules. We present a suite of solution strategies for the MDS problem including heuristic and rigorous integer programming (IP) approaches. We show that these approaches allow us to capture physicochemical properties and domain-specific logic and constraints, facilitating the identification of molecules with the target properties. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by navigating the chemical space of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS); this comprises approximately 15,000 molecular structures. We compare our framework against traditional dimensionality reduction and clustering methods such as t-SNE and K-means clustering.

Chemical structure↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoding diffraction and spectroscopy data with machine learning: A tutorial

This Tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on how to apply supervised machine-learning techniques to analyze diffraction and spectroscopy data. This Tutorial details four models—a reconstruction-focused model, a regression-focused model, a hybrid reconstruction/regression model, and a multimodal model—that use x-ray diffraction profiles and vibrational density of states spectra to predict various microstructural descriptors. In this Tutorial, we cover data pre-processing steps, constructions of the models via dimensionality reduction and regression, training, and analysis of these models. Comparisons of the model’s performance are provided, highlighting the strength and weakness of the various approaches utilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Maximizing efficiency of dataset compression for machine learning potentials with information theory

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) balance high accuracy and lower costs compared to density functional theory calculations, but their performance often depends on the size and diversity of training datasets. Large datasets improve model accuracy and generalization but are computationally expensive to produce and train on, while smaller datasets risk discarding rare but important atomic environments and compromising MLIP accuracy/reliability. Here, we develop an information-theoretical framework to quantify the efficiency of dataset compression methods and propose an algorithm that maximizes this efficiency. By framing atomistic dataset compression as an instance of the minimum set cover (MSC) problem over atom-centered environments, our method identifies the smallest subset of structures that contains as much information as possible from the original dataset while pruning redundant information. The approach is extensively demonstrated on the GAP-20 and TM23 datasets and validated on 64 varied datasets from the ColabFit repository. Across all cases, MSC consistently retains outliers, preserves dataset diversity, and reproduces the long-tail distributions of forces even at high compression rates, outperforming other subsampling methods. Furthermore, MLIPs trained on MSC-compressed datasets exhibit reduced error for out-of-distribution data even in low-data regimes. We explain these results using an outlier analysis and show that such quantitative conclusions could not be achieved with conventional dimensionality reduction methods. The algorithm is implemented in the open-source QUESTS package and can be used for several tasks in atomistic modeling, from data subsampling, outlier detection, and training improved MLIPs at a lower cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the topology of neural manifolds across populations

Neural manifolds summarize the intrinsic structure of the information encoded by a population of neurons. Advances in experimental techniques have made simultaneous recordings from multiple brain regions increasingly commonplace, raising the possibility of studying how these manifolds relate across populations. However, when the manifolds are nonlinear and possibly code for multiple unknown variables, it is challenging to extract robust and falsifiable information about their relationships. We introduce a framework, called the method of analogous cycles, for matching topological features of neural manifolds using only observed dissimilarity matrices within and between neural populations. We demonstrate via analysis of simulations and in vivo experimental data that this method can be used to correctly identify multiple shared circular coordinate systems across both stimuli and inferred neural manifolds. Conversely, the method rejects matching features that are not intrinsic to one of the systems. Further, as this method is deterministic and does not rely on dimensionality reduction or optimization methods, it is amenable to direct mathematical investigation and interpretation in terms of the underlying neural activity. We thus propose the method of analogous cycles as a suitable foundation for a theory of cross-population analysis via neural manifolds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distance preserving machine learning for uncertainty aware accelerator capacitance predictions

Abstract Accurate uncertainty estimations are essential for producing reliable machine learning models, especially in safety-critical applications such as accelerator systems. Gaussian process models are generally regarded as the gold standard for this task; however, they can struggle with large, high-dimensional datasets. Combining deep neural networks with Gaussian process approximation techniques has shown promising results, but dimensionality reduction through standard deep neural network layers is not guaranteed to maintain the distance information necessary for Gaussian process models. We build on previous work by comparing the use of the singular value decomposition against a spectral-normalized dense layer as a feature extractor for a deep neural Gaussian process approximation model and apply it to a capacitance prediction problem for the High Voltage Converter Modulators in the Oak Ridge Spallation Neutron Source. Our model shows improved distance preservation and predicts in-distribution capacitance values with less than 1% error.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced-basis method for few-body bound-state emulation

Recent advances in both theoretical and computational methods have enabled large-scale, precision calculations of the properties of atomic nuclei. With the growing complexity of modern nuclear theory, however, also comes the need for novel methods to perform systematic studies and quantify the uncertainties of models when confronted with experimental data. Here, this study presents an application of such an approach, the reduced basis method, to substantially lower computational costs by constructing a significantly smaller Hamiltonian subspace informed by previous solutions. Our method shows comparable efficiency and accuracy to other dimensionality reduction techniques on an artificial three-body bound system while providing a richer representation of physical information in its projection and training subspace. This methodological advancement can be applied in other contexts and has the potential to greatly improve our ability to systematically explore theoretical models and thus enhance our understanding of the fundamental properties of nuclear systems.

cluster models↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emergent quasi-one-dimensional antiferromagnetism in the distorted kagome magnet CePtPb

CePtPb hosts a distorted kagome lattice of Ce 3+ ions, providing a clean platform to investigate how reduced local symmetry and strong spin-orbit coupling reshape frustrated magnetism. Magnetization, specific heat, and magnetocaloric effect measurements, combined with a symmetry analysis of the single-ion anisotropy, demonstrate that the local 𝑚⁢2⁢𝑚 site symmetry selects a nearly Ising-like Kramers doublet with easy axes lying within the 𝑎⁢𝑏 plane. This results in three distinct in-plane Ising directions and an overall easy-plane anisotropy. The low-energy magnetic response is well captured by a three-sublattice Ising model, which quantitatively reproduces the saturation magnetization for arbitrary in-plane field orientations, including $[110]$ and $[1\bar{⁢1}⁢0]$, as well as the ratio of the field-induced critical fields. For 𝐵∥$[110]$, the phase diagram exhibits two quantum critical points at 𝐵 c⁢1 = 0.25T and 𝐵 c⁢2 = 0.55T, arising from the sequential polarization of the three Ising sublattices. In conclusion, these results reveal that the system develops quasi-one-dimensional spin chains along the 𝑐 axis, emerging from the nominally three-dimensional crystal structure composed of stacked kagome layers, and illustrate how reduced local symmetry can drive effective dimensional reduction in rare-earth Ising magnets.

Li, Fangli [Southern University of Science and Tec↗

DOE OSTI2025

BAGELS for simultaneous polarization, orbit, and optics control in electron storage rings

We present a new method for minimizing the effects of radiative depolarization in electron storage rings by use of a minimal number of special vertical orbit bumps. The bumps can be used to minimize the effects of radiative depolarization while simultaneously maintaining other common benefits of vertical orbits, e.g., transverse coupling and vertical dispersion control. Because simultaneously optimizing the large number of vertical correctors in a ring is operationally infeasible, we use dimensionality reduction to define a minimal number of the most effective groups of vertical correctors that can be optimized during operation, motivating the name “Best Adjustment Groups for ELectron Spin” (BAGELS). The method is streamlined by using suitable “basis bumps” instead of all individual vertical correctors. We define three types of basis bumps for different purposes: (i) generates no delocalized transverse coupling nor delocalized vertical dispersion, (ii) generates no delocalized vertical dispersion, and (iii) generates no delocalized transverse coupling. BAGELS has been essential in the design of the Electron Storage Ring (ESR) of the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) and will be beneficial for any polarized electron ring, including FCC-ee. HERA and LEP would have likely benefitted as well. We use BAGELS to significantly increase polarization in the 18 GeV EIC-ESR, beyond what is achievable with conventional methods; in the 1-IP lattice, we nearly double the asymptotic polarization, and in the 2-IP lattice, we more than triple the asymptotic polarization. We also use BAGELS to construct knobs that can be used for global coupling correction, and knobs that generate vertical emittance for beam size matching, all while having minimal impacts on the polarization and orbit/optics. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗