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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Projected long-term effects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic

The aftermath of the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the widening of disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes due to differential disruptions to CRC screening. This comparative microsimulation analysis uses two CISNET CRC models to simulate the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes. We evaluate three channels through which screening was disrupted: delays in screening, regimen switching, and screening discontinuation. The impact of these disruptions on long-term CRC outcomes was measured by the number of life-years lost due to CRC screening disruptions compared to a scenario without any disruptions. While short-term delays in screening of 3–18 months are predicted to result in minor life-years loss, discontinuing screening could result in much more significant reductions in the expected benefits of screening. These results demonstrate that unequal recovery of screening following the pandemic can widen disparities in CRC outcomes and emphasize the importance of ensuring equitable recovery to screening following the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards Interpretable Machine Learning-based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

In this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently missing for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. Thanks to the univariate analysis on the features used in such data-driven applications on both tokamaks, we are able to statistically highlight differences in the dominant disruption precursors: JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous MHD modes. Even though the analyzed datasets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show how data-driven algorithms trained on one device can be used to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios on the other. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tidal disruption discs formed and fed by stream–stream and stream–disc interactions in global GRHD simulations

When a star passes close to a supermassive black hole (BH), the BH’s tidal forces rip it apart into a thin stream, leading to a tidal disruption event (TDE). In this work, we study the post-disruption phase of TDEs in general relativistic hydrodynamics (GRHD) using our GPU-accelerated code h-amr. We carry out the first grid-based simulation of a deep-penetration TDE (β = 7) with realistic system parameters: a black hole-to-star mass ratio of 10 6 , a parabolic stellar trajectory, and a non-zero BH spin. We also carry out a simulation of a tilted TDE whose stellar orbit is inclined relative to the BH midplane. We show that for our aligned TDE, an accretion disc forms due to the dissipation of orbital energy with ~20 percent of the infalling material reaching the BH. The dissipation is initially dominated by violent self-intersections and later by stream–disc interactions near the pericentre. The self-intersections completely disrupt the incoming stream, resulting in five distinct self-intersection events separated by approximately 12 h and a flaring in the accretion rate. We also find that the disc is eccentric with mean eccentricity e ≈ 0.88. For our tilted TDE, we find only partial self-intersections due to nodal precession near pericentre. Although these partial intersections eject gas out of the orbital plane, an accretion disc still forms with a similar accreted fraction of the material to the aligned case. These results have important implications for disc formation in realistic tidal disruptions. For instance, the periodicity in accretion rate induced by the complete stream disruption may explain the flaring events from Swift J1644+57.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks (Final Technical Report)

The project "Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks" was a collaborative effort between ORNL, GA, and UCSD. The main goal of the project was to study the injection of shattered cryogenic pellets (SPI) as a method of reducing wall damage from global tokamak plasma instabilities called disruptions. This work was primarily carried out in the JET tokamak in the UK. The team already had extensive experience studying PSI in the medium sized DIII-D tokamak in the US, but adding data from the larger JET tokamak enabled more confident extrapolation to the even larger planned ITER tokamak in France. Each of the collaborating institutions focused on different aspects of SPI disruption mitigation. The UCSD collaboration focused on the volume recombination of post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beams by massive hydrogen injection. Disruptions can sometimes result in the formation of toroidal (ring shaped) beams of highly energetic (relativistic) electron beams, which can cause serious local wall damage, even in present-day tokamaks. A promising method to reduce wall damage from the RE beams is to inject massive amounts of H 2 or D 2 into the beams using SPI. although the precise method by which the injected H 2 reducses RE wall damage is still being investigated, it seems clear that a necessary and required step for the reduction to occur is for the H 2 injection to cause volume recombination (free electron density reduction) of the background cold plasma surrounding the fast electron beam. The UCSD collaboration focused on answering the question of if this recombination could be achievable in the future reactor-size tokamak ITER using realistic levels of H 2 injection. A model capturing the most essential physics was developed and was constrained using both DIII-D and JET data. This model was then used to extrapolate to ITER. It was predicted that RE beam recombination should be achievable in ITER, although in the worst-case scenari (a 10 MA Re beam in ITER), recombination is barely achieved within the maximum allowed levels of H 2 injection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

MHD stability and disruptions in the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is being designed to operate with a normalized beta of $β_N$ = 1.0, a normalized density of $n_G$ = 0.37 and a safety factor of $q_{95}$ ≈ 3.4, providing a comfortable margin to their respective disruption limits. Further, a low beta poloidal $β_p$ = 0.19 at the safety factor $\textit{q}$ = 2 surface reduces the drive for neoclassical tearing modes, which together with a frozen-in classically stable current profile might allow access to a robustly tearing-free operating space. Although the inherent stability is expected to reduce the frequency of disruptions, the disruption loading is comparable to and in some cases higher than that of ITER. The machine is being designed to withstand the predicted unmitigated axisymmetric halo current forces up to 50 MN and similarly large loads from eddy currents forced to flow poloidally in the vacuum vessel. Runaway electron (RE) simulations using GO+CODE show high flattop-to-RE current conversions in the absence of seed losses, although NIMROD modelling predicts losses of ~80 %; self-consistent modelling is ongoing. A passive RE mitigation coil designed to drive stochastic RE losses is being considered and COMSOL modelling predicts peak normalized fields at the plasma of order 10 –2 that rises linearly with a change in the plasma current. Massive material injection is planned to reduce the disruption loading. A data-driven approach to predict an oncoming disruption and trigger mitigation is discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Directed evolution of and structural insights into antibody-mediated disruption of a stable receptor-ligand complex

Antibody drugs exert therapeutic effects via a range of mechanisms, including competitive inhibition, allosteric modulation, and immune effector mechanisms. Facilitated dissociation is an additional mechanism where antibody-mediated “disruption” of stable high-affinity macromolecular complexes can potentially enhance therapeutic efficacy. However, this mechanism is not well understood or utilized therapeutically. Here, we investigate and engineer the weak disruptive activity of an existing therapeutic antibody, omalizumab, which targets IgE antibodies to block the allergic response. We develop a yeast display approach to select for and engineer antibody disruptive efficiency and generate potent omalizumab variants that dissociate receptor-bound IgE. We determine a low resolution cryo-EM structure of a transient disruption intermediate containing the IgE-Fc, its partially dissociated receptor and an antibody inhibitor. Our results provide a conceptual framework for engineering disruptive inhibitors for other targets, insights into the failure in clinical trials of the previous high affinity omalizumab HAE variant and anti-IgE antibodies that safely and rapidly disarm allergic effector cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled 2D MHD and runaway electron fluid simulations of SPARC disruptions

Runaway electrons (REs) generated during disruption events in tokamaks can carry mega-Ampère level currents, potentially causing damage to plasma-facing components. Understanding RE evolution during disruption events is important for evaluating strategies to mitigate RE damage. Using two-dimensional toroidally symmetric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations in M3D-C1, which incorporates a fluid RE model evolved self-consistently with the bulk MHD fluid, we examine the seeding and avalanching of REs during disruptions in the SPARC tokamak – a compact, high-field, high-current device designed to achieve a fusion gain Q > 2 in deuterium–tritium plasmas. The M3D-C1 simulations of unmitigated disruptions demonstrate RE plateau formation and peaking of the final current density, which agree well with the results of lower-fidelity reduced RE fluid models. This work provides the first systematic comparison and benchmarking of different primary sources, including activated tritium beta decay and Compton scattering, in SPARC disruption simulations with self-consistent MHD and RE coupling.

Compton scattering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of different noble gas injections by massive gas injection on plasma disruption mitigation on Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

Massive gas injection (MGI) is a traditional plasma disruption mitigation method. This method directly injected massive gas into the pre-disruption plasma and had been developed on the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST). Different noble gas injection experiments, including He, Ne, and Ar, were performed to compare the mitigation effect of plasma disruption by evaluating the key parameters such as flight time, pre-thermal quench (pre-TQ), and current quench (CQ). The flight time was shorter for low atomic number ( Z ) gas, and the decrease in flight time by increasing the amount of gas was insignificant. However, both pre-TQ and CQ durations decreased considerably with the increase in gas injection amount. The effect of atomic mass on pre-TQ and CQ durations showed the opposite trend. The observed trend could help in controlling CQ duration in a reasonable area. Moreover, the analysis of radiation distribution with different impurity injections indicated that low Z impurity could reduce the asymmetry of radiation, which is valuable in mitigating plasma disruption. These results provided essential data support for plasma disruption mitigation on EAST and future fusion devices.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Disruption prevention using rotating resonant magnetic perturbation on J-TEXT

Major plasma disruption is one of the most critical issues to be solved for tokamak fusion reactors. Experiments to prevent mode locking and subsequent disruptions have been carried out on the J-TEXT tokamak using rotating resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). The tearing modes, which are locked and lead to disruptions without the application of RMPs, can be accelerated by rotating RMPs to the RMP frequency. As a result, mode locking and subsequent disruptions are delayed or prevented. The effects of RMP amplitude and frequency on disruption prevention have been investigated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSTXU Diagnostic Disruption Dynamic Loading Represented by Response Spectra

This article presents the results of transient dynamic simulations of loads due to disruption eddy currents on the NSTXU vacuum vessel. Dynamic loading at diagnostic mounting locations is expressed as response spectra derived from the time history results of the dynamic structural simulations of a variety of disruption scenarios. The disruption simulations draw on a history of the project assessments of worst case disruptions for specific components. Major efforts to assess disruption loading have included the vacuum vessel which is the major structural support for the machine, as well as the passive plates (PPs), high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) antenna, and centerstack casing. Each one of these efforts included transient electromagnetic simulations producing time-dependent eddy current Lorentz loads (and in some cases halo loads) which then were applied to time-dependent structural dynamic analyses intended to obtain the proper dynamic amplification factors. In some instances, the EM model and structural model were identical allowing direct transfer of EM forces to the structural model. In other cases, the EM and structural model were not identical and the vector potential (VP) transfer method was used. The results files from these analyses were available (or re-run) to post process in ANSYS Classic time history postprocessor. In conclusion, the ANSYS command is used to create response spectra from time history data at desired points on the vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tokamak Disruption Simulation (Final Technical Report)

The Tokamak Disruption Simulation collaboration was a SciDAC (Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing) program led by Xianzhu Tang of the Los Alamos National Laboratory but with separate grants to each institution. I was the PI for Columbia University and the only person at Columbia directly funded by this SciDAC. Disruptions are a sudden loss of confinement in tokamaks, and a reliable method of preventing disruptions must be developed before tokamak fusion power plants become feasible. A related plasma confinement concept, the stellarator, is the only way known way of preventing disruptions with the required reliability. The largest devices, both existing and under construction, for confining plasmas for fusion using magnetic fields are tokamaks, so it is important to solve their disruption issues. The sudden loss of confinement in tokamaks can be from a bit of material falling into the plasma, which causes the plasma energy to be quickly lost by radiation, or by an instability causing a breakup of the confining surfaces formed by the magnetic field. This breakup can occur more than a million times faster than one would naively think possible. The sudden breakup of surfaces is called a fast magnetic reconnection and also results in a sudden cooling of the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disruption of Dark Matter Minihalos in the Milky Way Environment: Implications for Axion Miniclusters and Early Matter Domination

Many theories of dark matter beyond the weakly interacting massive particles paradigm feature an enhanced matter power spectrum on subparsec scales, leading to the formation of dense dark matter minihalos. Future local observations are promising to search for and constrain such substructures. The survival probability of these dense minihalos in the Milky Way environment is crucial for interpreting local observations. In this work, we investigate two environmental effects: stellar disruption and (smooth) tidal disruption. These two mechanisms are studied using semianalytic models and idealized N-body simulations. For stellar disruption, we perform a series of N-body simulations of isolated minihalo–star encounters to test and calibrate analytic models of stellar encounters before applying the model to the realistic Milky Way disk environment. For tidal disruption, we perform N-body simulations to confirm the effectiveness of the analytic treatment. Finally, we propose a framework to combine the hierarchical assembly and infall of minihalos to the Milky Way with the late-time disruption mechanisms. We make predictions for the mass functions of minihalos in the Milky Way. The mass survival fraction (at M$_{mh}$ ≥ 10$^{−12}$M$_{⊙}$) of dense dark matter minihalos, e.g., for axion miniclusters and minihalos from early matter domination, is ∼60% with the relatively low-mass, compact population surviving. The survival fraction is insensitive to the detailed model parameters. We discuss various implications of the framework and future direct detection prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alpha particle driven Alfvénic instabilities in ITER post-disruption plasmas

Fusion-born alpha particles in ITER disruption simulations are investigated as a possible drive of Alfvénic instabilities. The ability of these waves to expel runaway electron (RE) seed particles is explored in the pursuit of a passive, inherent RE mitigation scenario. The spatiotemporal evolution of the alpha particle distribution during the disruption is calculated using the linearized Fokker–Planck solver CODION coupled to a fluid disruption simulation. These simulations are done in the limit of no alpha particle transport during the thermal quench, which can be seen as a most pessimistic situation where there is also no RE seed transport. Under these assumptions, the radial anisotropy of the resulting alpha population provides free energy to drive Alfvénic modes during the quench phase of the disruption. We use the linear gyrokinetic magnetohydrodynamic code LIGKA to calculate the Alfvén spectrum and find that the equilibrium is capable of sustaining a wide range of modes. The self-consistent evolution of the mode amplitudes and the alpha distribution is calculated utilizing the wave-particle interaction tool HAGIS. Intermediate mode number (n = 7–15, 22–26) toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes are shown to saturate at an amplitude of up to δB/B ≈ 0.1% in the spatial regimes crucial for RE seed formation. We find that the mode amplitudes are predicted to be sufficiently large to permit the possibility of significant radial transport of REs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗