Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “disruption prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

MST resistive wall tearing mode simulations

Here, the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) is a toroidal device that, when operated as a stan dard tokamak, does not have major disruptions. Unlike most tokamaks, the MST plasma is surrounded by a close fitting highly conducting wall, with a resistive wall penetration time two orders of magnitude longer than in JET or DIII-D, and three times longer than in ITER. The MST can operate with edge q a ⩽ 2, unlike standard tokamaks. Simulations presented here indicate that the MST is unstable to resistive wall tearing modes (RWTMs) and resistive wall modes (RWMs). They could in principle cause disruptions, but the predicted thermal quench time is much longer than the experimental pulse time. If the MST thermal quench time were comparable to measurements in JET and DIII-D, theory and simulations predict that disruptions would have been observed in MST. This is consistent with the modeling herein, predicting that disruptions are caused by RWTMs and RWMs. In the low q a ~ 2 regime of MST, the RWTM asymptotically satisfies the RWM dispersion relation. The transition from RWTM to RWM occurs smoothly at q a = m/n, where m, n are poloidal and toroidal mode numbers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prototype tests of the electromagnetic particle injector-2 for fast time response disruption mitigation in tokamaks

Predicting and controlling disruptions is an important and urgent issue for ITER. Some disruptions with a short warning time may be unavoidable. For these cases, a fast time response disruption mitigation method is essential. Experimental tests on a prototype system of a novel, rapid time-response disruption mitigation system being developed for tokamak-based reactors and as a backup option for ITER, referred to as the electromagnetic particle injector (EPI), have been able to verify the primary advantages of the concept. These are its ability to meet short warning time scales of <10 ms while attaining the projected high velocities for deep radiative payload penetration in reactor-scale plasmas. The EPI relies on an electromagnetic propulsion system. A metallic sabot is accelerated electromagnetically to the required velocities (>1 km s -1 ) within 2 ms, at which point it releases a radiative payload consisting of a shell pellet or well-defined microspheres. Initial experimental tests from the prototype system show attainment of over 600 m s -1 in about 1 ms. Finally, essential aspects of payload separation from the sabot and sabot capture have also been demonstrated at 200 m s -1 , and the method can be extended to over 2 km s -1 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics-Based Real-time Analysis and Control to Achieve Transient-Free Operations for the ITER Era (Final Report)

This is the final report for the early career award for Prof. Egemen Kolemen that aimed to develop the physics and technical basis of real-time transient – i.e. disruptions and Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) – avoidance and feedback control at the DIII-D nuclear fusion facility for the ITER era. During this project, we reconstructed high quality real-time DIII-D equilibria using kinetic information from the motional Stark effect (MSE), Thomson Scattering (TS), and Charge Exchange Recombination (CER) spectroscopy. These equilibria were analyzed in real-time to determine the low-n ideal MHD stability and the pedestal stability thresholds, and to obtain plasma response models. These calculations were used to understand which physical process evolves to lead to the onset of disruption in ITER-relevant scenarios at DIII-D, and how disruption can be predicted using stability analysis as opposed to the current methods of correlation of various signals, which are descriptive but lack predictive power. In the disruption studies, we focused on tearing modes, since these constitute the vast majority of disruptions in this regime. With this knowledge, real-time disruption avoidance algorithms were developed and tested. The enhanced situation awareness and physics insight were used in advanced real-time feedback control of pedestal and core profiles, which allowed the pursuit and sustainment of transient-free high-confinement regimes that cannot be achieved via feed-forward design based on in-between shot analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-device study of temporal characteristics of magnetohydrodynamic modes initiating disruptions

Disruptions in tokamaks are often preceded by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities that can rotate or become locked to the wall. Measurements from magnetic diagnostics in the presence of MHD mode precursors to disruptions can yield potentially valuable input to the plasma control system, with a view to disruption avoidance, prediction and mitigation. This report presents an exploratory analysis of the growth of MHD modes and corresponding time scales on the basis of magnetic measurements in multiple tokamaks. To this end, a database was compiled using disruptive discharges from COMPASS, ASDEX Upgrade, DIII-D and JET, manually classified according to disruption root cause, and characterized by a great diversity of operational conditions and mode dynamics. The typical time during which a mode can be detected using saddle coils and the duration of the locked mode phase in the database both extend over several orders of magnitude, but generally the time scales increase with plasma size. Several additional factors are discussed that can influence these durations, including the disruption root cause. A scaling law for the locked phase duration was estimated, yielding predictions toward ITER of the order of hundreds of milliseconds or even seconds. In addition, a scaling law for the mode amplitude at the disruption onset, proposed earlier by de Vries et al. (2016), is applied to the database, and its predictive capabilities are assessed. Despite significant uncertainty on the predictions from both scaling laws, encouraging trends are observed of the fraction of disruptions that may be detected with sufficient warning time to allow mitigation or even avoidance, based solely on observations of MHD mode dynamics. When combined with similar analysis of measurements from diagnostics that are sensitive to other disruption precursors, our analysis methods and results may contribute to the reliability, robustness and generalization of disruption warning schemes for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cometary Nuclei and Tidal Disruption: The Geologic Record of Crater Chains on Callisto and Ganymede

Prominent crater chains on Ganymede and Callisto are most likely the impact scars of comets tidally disrupted by Jupiter and are not secondary crater chains. We have examined the morphology of these chains in detail in order to place constraints on the properties of the comets that formed them and the disruption process. In these chains, intercrater spacing varies by no more than a factor of 2 and the craters within a given chain show almost no deviation from linearity (although the chains themselves are on gently curved small circles). All of these crater chains occur on or very near the Jupiter-facing hemisphere. For a given chain, the estimated masses of the fragments that formed each crater vary by no more than an order of magnitude. The mean fragment masses for all the chains vary by over four orders of magnitude (W. B. McKinnon and P. M. Schenk 1995, Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1829-1832), however. The mass of the parent comet for each crater chain is not correlated with the number of fragments produced during disruption but is correlated with the mean mass of the fragments produced in a given disruption event. Also, the larger fragments are located near the center of each chain. All of these characteristics are consistent with those predicted by disruption simulations based on the rubble pile cometary nucleus model (in which nuclei are composed on numerous small fragments weakly bound by self-gravity), and with those observed in Comet D/Shoemaker-Levy 9. Similar crater chains have not been found on the other icy satellites, but the impact record of disrupted comets on Callisto and Ganymede indicates that disruption events occur within the Jupiter system roughly once every 200 to 400 years.

Schenk, Paul M.↗

ARC disruption physics and strategy

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans to operate a tokamak power plant called ARC in the early 2030s. Tokamak plasmas have stability limits that, if crossed, lead to a rapid termination of the plasma, referred to as a disruption. Disruptions pose a melt risk to the first wall resulting from thermal and non-thermal particle heat fluxes, and an electromagnetic loading risk on all metal components within the equilibrium coils. A comprehensive set of models is used herein to provide an assessment of both mitigated and unmitigated ARC disruption loads. A preliminary massive gas injection system is baselined and a runaway electron mitigation coil option is proposed to close possible gaps in the baseline. It is predicted that all ARC disruption loads are within a factor of 2 of the disruption loads in SPARC, a tokamak presently under construction by CFS, and therefore SPARC provides an opportunity to calibrate models, test solutions and inform the design of ARC. The goal for ARC is disruption-free operation, however, the pragmatic design target is to withstand one mitigated disruption per day, and to restart the plasma following mitigation in tens of seconds without interrupting the power output. Unmitigated disruptions must be rare, and experience with unmitigated disruption impacts in SPARC will better define what rare means. The implications of this strategy for plasma disruptivity and disruption prediction are discussed, and operating the ARC scenario on SPARC is expected to refine the ARC final design and operational plan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Magnetic-Confinement Fusion—Plasma Theory: Tokamak Magnetohydrodynamic Equilibrium and Stability

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) provides a useful model to describe the crucial plasma macroscopic equilibrium and stability behaviors in toroidal tokamak devices by considering the plasma as a conducting fluid interacting with a surrounding confining electromagnetic field. MHD is the most basic plasma model, incorporating most large-scale phenomena, including plasma equilibrium and all major instabilities. MHD equations are obtained by taking moments of the Boltzmann equations for different plasma species. They provide a set of comprehensive physics constrains to compute and optimize the equilibrium plasma shape and pressure and current profiles that are critical to its stability and performance. In the ideal case, the equations have special properties that lead to efficient numerical calculation schemes, the most important of which is the ideal MHD energy principle for linear stability against small departures from equilibrium. In a tokamak plasma, equilibrium pressure is mostly destabilizing for MHD modes, whereas equilibrium current is also often a major driving force. Plasma resistivity creates new freedom for a MHD instability to grow, but there are also cases where the plasma resistivity plays a stabilizing role. Equilibrium toroidal flow and/or flow shear can affect MHD instabilities. Principal MHD instabilities include the internal kink mode, sawtooth, fishbone, external kink, resistive wall mode, resistive interchange, tearing and neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs), locked modes, toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs), and edge localized modes (ELMs). Fast-growing MHD instabilities can lead to an abrupt plasma disruption and termination that can potentially damage the device plasma facing components (PFCs) and in-vessel structures. Furthermore, an important MHD application is to develop robust techniques to mitigate and control MHD instabilities.

Dispersive pellet injection↗

Exploration of Quantum Machine Learning and AI Accelerators for Fusion Science

The dawn of the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era sparked rapid development in variational quantum algorithms. These algorithms, utilizing parameterized quantum circuit optimized by classical computers with feedback, are practical under the constraints of the current hardware and can potentially show quantum advantage. In recent years, these variational circuit are applied to neural networks, hoping to boost the triumphant success of deep learning. We simulate various of quantum-classical hybrid neural networks applied to scientific tasks, and seek to understand their capabilities and limitations. Specifically, we devise quantum convolutional layers and apply them to deep neural networks used for predicting plasma disruption in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Passive deconfinement of runaway electrons using an in-vessel helical coil

A helical coil designed to passively generate non-axisymmetric fields during a plasma disruption is shown (via electromagnetic analysis, linear MHD modeling, and relativistic drift orbit tracing) to be effective at deconfining runaway electrons (REs) on a time scale significantly faster than the plasma current quench. Magnetic equilibria from DIII-D RE-producing scenarios are used to calculate the toroidal electric field generated during the current quench phase of a disruption, which in turn drives current in the proposed n = 1 in-vessel helical coil, without the need for any external power supplies or disruption detection or prediction techniques. Simulations of the plasma evolution using the TokSys GS Evolve code predict the inductive coupling of coil currents up to 12% of the pre-disruption plasma current into the helical coil. The coil geometry is parametrically varied to maximize both the non-resonant and resonant components of the 3D magnetic perturbation, resulting in δB/B ≈ 10 –2 and a vacuumisland overlapwidth of up to 0.7ψ N . The REORBIT module of the MARS-F code is used to model the full non-axisymmetric magnetic field and trace RE drift orbits to determine the effect on RE deconfinement, with up to 70% of the RE orbits lost after 0.2 ms. A two-stage evolution of the RE orbit loss fraction is observed to be caused by resonant trapping between multiple magnetic island chains. Finally, electromagnetic and thermal stresses on the coil are calculated to be within operational limits for installation in DIII-D, and scale favorably to a reactor-size device. Furthermore, these findings motivate future experimental study of the helical coil concept in DIII-D or other tokamaks.

3D coil↗

Models of resistive wall tearing mode disruptions

Disruptions are a serious issue in tokamaks. In a disruption, the thermal energy is lost by means of an instability which could be a resistive wall tearing mode (RWTM). During precursors to a disruption, the plasma edge region cools, causing the current to contract. Model sequences of contracted current equilibria are given, and their stability is calculated. A linear stability study shows that there is a maximum value of edge q a ≈ 3 for RWTMs to occur. Further, this also implies a minimum rational surface radius normalized to plasma radius from RWTMs to be unstable. Nonlinear simulations are performed using a similar model sequence derived from an equilibrium reconstruction. There is a striking difference in the results, depending on whether the wall is ideal or resistive. With an ideal wall, the perturbations saturate at moderate amplitude, causing a minor disruption without a thermal quench. With a resistive wall, there is a major disruption with a thermal quench, if the edge q a ≤ 3. There is a sharp transition in nonlinear behavior at q a = 3. This is consistent with the linear model and with experiments. If disruptions are caused by RWTMs, then devices with highly conducting walls, such as the International Tokamak Experimental Reactor will experience much milder, tolerable, disruptions than presently predicted.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fluctuations in Jupiter’s Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation

The equatorial stratospheres of the Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn all exhibit a remarkable periodic oscillation of their temperatures and winds with height. Earth’s Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Saturn’s Quasi-Periodic Equatorial Oscillation (QPO) have recently been observed to experience disruptions in their vertical structure as a consequence of atmospheric events occurring far from the equator. Here we reveal that Jupiter’s Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) can also be perturbed by strong tropospheric activity at the equatorial and off-equatorial latitudes. Observations of Jupiter’s stratospheric temperatures between 1980 and 2011 show two significantly different periods for the QQO, with a 5.7-year period between 1980 and 1990 and a 3.9-year period between 1996 and 2006. Major disruptions to the predicted QQO pattern in 1992 and 2007 coincided with dramatic planetary-scale disturbances in the equatorial and low-latitude troposphere, suggesting that they are connected to vertically propagating waves generated by meteorological sources in the deeper troposphere (i.e. 500-4000 mbar pressures). Disruptions in Jupiter’s periodic oscillations are thus inherently different than those at Saturn or the Earth. This interconnectivity between the troposphere and stratosphere that is likely common to all planetary atmospheres shows that seemingly regular cycles of variability can switch between different modes when subjected to extreme meteorological events

Arrate Antunano↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main-sequence Stars. IV. Relativistic Effects and Dependence on Black Hole Mass

Using a suite of fully relativistic hydrodynamic simulations applied to main-sequence stars with realistic internal density profiles, we examine full and partial tidal disruptions across a wide range of black hole mass (10(exp 5)≤M(BH)/M(ʘ)≤5 x 10(exp 7) and stellar mass (0.3≤M(*)/M(ʘ)≤3) as larger M(BH) leads to stronger relativistic effects. For fixed M( ), as M(BH) increases, the ratio of the maximum pericenter distance yielding full disruptions ( ) to its Newtonian prediction rises rapidly, becoming triple the Newtonian value for M(BH)=5 x 10(exp 7)M(ʘ), while the ratio of the energy width of the stellar debris for full disruptions to the Newtonian prediction decreases steeply, resulting in a factor of 2 correction at M(BH)=5 x 10(exp 7)M(ʘ). We provide approximate formulae that express the relativistic corrections of both R(t) and the energy width relative to their Newtonian approximate estimates. For partial disruptions, we find that the fractional remnant mass for a given ratio of the pericenter to R(t) is higher for larger M(BH). These results have several implications. As M(BH) increases above ~10(exp 7)M(ʘ), the cross section for complete disruptions is suppressed by competition with direct capture. However, the cross-section ratio for partial to complete disruptions depends only weakly on M(BH). The relativistic correction to the debris energy width delays the time of peak mass-return rate and diminishes the magnitude of the peak return rate. For M(BH)≳10(exp 7)M(ʘ), the M(BH)-dependence of the full disruption cross section and the peak mass-return rate and time is influenced more by relativistic effects than by Newtonian dynamics.

Taeho Ryu↗

Concept of Operations for Management by Trajectory

This document describes Management by Trajectory (MBT), a concept for future air traffic management (ATM) in which every flight operates in accordance with a four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) that is negotiated between the airspace user and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to respect the airspace user's goals while complying with National Airspace System (NAS) constraints. In the present-day NAS, the ATM system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the approved flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, once the aircraft starts to move, controllers tactically manage the aircraft to implement traffic management restrictions, separate otherwise conflicting aircraft, and address arising NAS constraints. Tactical controller actions are not directly communicated to the automation systems or other stakeholders. Furthermore, the initial trajectory prediction does not anticipate these disruptions or how they will impact the flight. Consequently, and compounded by gaps in required data and models, trajectory predictions are less accurate than possible, which affects Traffic Flow Management (TFM) performance. A cornerstone of the MBT concept is that all air vehicles have, at all times, an assigned 4DT from their current state to their destination. These assigned trajectories consist of trajectory constraints and descriptions. Pilots and air traffic controllers, with the aid of automation, operate the aircraft to comply with the assigned trajectory, unless first negotiating a revision. Equipped aircraft have substantial responsibility for complying with the assigned trajectory without controller intervention. To maximize the operational flexibility available to the airspace user, the assigned trajectory only imposes trajectory constraints as required to achieve the ATM goals of NAS constraint compliance and aircraft separation. Trajectory descriptions are added to the assigned trajectory to ensure sufficient predictability. To further improve trajectory prediction accuracy, airspace users supplement the assigned trajectory by broadcasting intent information and updating it as necessary. Air vehicle intent is a more detailed description of the airspace user's plan for how the flight will fly the assigned trajectory. Air vehicle intent can change freely, without negotiation, as long as it remains in compliance with the assigned trajectory. Aircraft assigned trajectories, air vehicle intent, and predicted trajectories are shared, creating a common view among stakeholders. A NAS Constraint Service gathers and publishes information about all known NAS constraints, enabling airspace users to be informed participants in trajectory negotiation. Trajectory constraints in the assigned trajectory are mapped to NAS constraints to facilitate identifying which aircraft are affected when NAS constraints change. To support efficient trajectory negotiation, all aircraft provide current information about air vehicle capabilities. Assigned trajectories are constructed to satisfy all known NAS constraints, improving trajectory stability and predictability. Uncertainty and disruptions are handled by modifying the assigned trajectory as far in advance as possible. By proactively negotiating changes to the assigned trajectory, rather than relying on controller-selected tactical actions such as vectors to resolve traffic conflicts or implement miles-in-trail restrictions, MBT keeps aircraft on closed trajectories that are fully known to all stakeholders. Since reactive air traffic control actions cannot be predicted in advance, the downstream trajectory cannot be accurately predicted until they happen. Reliable trajectory predictions allow the system to identify needed modifications to trajectories further in advance, where they can be negotiated and communicated as amendments (i.e., additional or altered trajectory constraints) to the assigned trajectory. Decision Support Tools (DSTs) aid controllers in rapidly defining and communicating closed trajectories to the aircraft and support all stakeholders in trajectory negotiation. Anticipated MBT benefit mechanisms include more accurate trajectory predictions, improved ATM performance and robustness to off-nominal conditions, increased flexibility and operational efficiency, reduced impediments to emerging classes of airspace users accessing NAS resources, reduced environmental impacts, and enhanced safety.

ConOps↗