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NASA NTRS2022

Landslide Likelihood Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

The supply of electricity via power plants is criticalto the operation of many critical infrastructure systems in mod-ern society. Natural hazards can disrupt the power supply, causepower outages that can halt economic growth, and impede emer-gency response until power is restored. The proposed work aimsto predict the landslides likelihood in these critical infrastructurelocations in the Northeastern USA using integrated databases ofexplanatory variables and machine learning algorithms. First,data related to landslides are obtained and merged, includingtopographic, soil moisture, and precipitation-related data. Fiveregression algorithms, namely: Random Forest, Extreme Gradi-ent Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor regression (KNN),Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Linear regression,are utilized to predict the landslide probability and evaluatedon the dataset. The accuracy of the models is assessed by usingstatistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), meansquared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).The study results show that Random Forest outperformed othermodels with the mutual information feature selection method.It achieved an MSE of 0.0011 with mutual information-basedfeature selection and an MSE of 0.00157 without feature selection.KNN regressor outperformed the other models with an MSEof 0.00139 with correlation-based information selection. Theproposed landslide identification model with Random Forestalgorithm shows outstanding robustness and great potential intackling the landslide likelihood prediction by employing MLalgorithms.

Vasundhara Acharya↗
NASA NTRS1985

Can cometary bombardment disrupt synchronous rotation of planetary satellites?

The distribution of craters on Jupiter's Galilean satellites Ganymede and Callisto and on Saturn's midsized airless moons is much more symmetric and uniform than theoretical analysis predicts. A number of explanations for this situation have been considered, taking into account also the possibility that impacts due to cometary bombardment might disrupt the synchronous rotation of the moons. The feasibility of such a disruption is explored in the present study. The results of this study are presented in a table. It is found that a disruption of the synchronous rotation of the considered moons by impacts is very unlikely.

Lissauer, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stationary occultations from low Earth orbit

The process of stationary lunar occultations is considered for observers in LEO. The orbit of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is used as a prototype. The noncoplanarity of the HST and lunar orbits disrupts many of the expected stationary events, and orbital drag complicates the prediction problem. In a typical year, the apparent speed of the lunar limb seen by the HST is slower than a typical ground-based event only about 0.7 percent of the time. The orbit prediction can be wrong by as much as 20 deg in 53 days, with most of the error lying in the plane of the orbit.

Percival, Jeffrey W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Validating and Verifying Biomathematical Models of Human Fatigue

Airline pilots experience acute and chronic sleep deprivation, sleep inertia, and circadian desynchrony due to the need to schedule flight operations around the clock. This sleep loss and circadian desynchrony gives rise to cognitive impairments, reduced vigilance and inconsistent performance. Several biomathematical models, based principally on patterns observed in circadian rhythms and homeostatic drive, have been developed to predict a pilots levels of fatigue or alertness. These models allow for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and commercial airlines to make decisions about pilot capabilities and flight schedules. Although these models have been validated in a laboratory setting, they have not been thoroughly tested in operational environments where uncontrolled factors, such as environmental sleep disrupters, caffeine use and napping, may impact actual pilot alertness and performance. We will compare the predictions of three prominent biomathematical fatigue models (McCauley Model, Harvard Model, and the privately-sold SAFTE-FAST Model) to actual measures of alertness and performance. We collected sleep logs, movement and light recordings, psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and urinary melatonin (a marker of circadian phase) from 44 pilots in a short-haul commercial airline over one month. We will statistically compare with the model predictions to lapses on the PVT and circadian phase. We will calculate the sensitivity and specificity of each model prediction under different scheduling conditions. Our findings will aid operational decision-makers in determining the reliability of each model under real-world scheduling situations.

fatigue↗
NASA NTRS2014

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functional tasks during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of a countermeasure comprised of a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Due to this inherent individual variability we need to develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to predict, before actual space flight, which crewmember will experience challenges in adaptive capacity. Thus, obtaining this information will allow us to design and implement better sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that will be customized for each crewmember's unique adaptive capabilities. Therefore the goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to design sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that are customized for each crewmember's individual sensorimotor adaptive characteristics. To achieve these goals we are currently pursuing the following specific aims: Aim 1: Determine whether behavioral metrics of individual sensory bias predict sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, subjects perform tests that delineate individual sensory biases in tests of visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive function. Aim 2: Determine if individual capability for strategic and plastic-adaptive responses predicts sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, each subject's strategic and plastic-adaptive motor learning abilities are assessed using a test of locomotor function designed specifically to delineate both mechanisms. Aim 3: Develop predictors of sensorimotor adaptability using brain structural and functional metrics. We will measure individual differences in regional brain volumes (structural MRI), white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging, or DTI), functional network integrity (resting state functional connectivity MRI), and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation (functional MRI). We decided to complete the data collection for Specific Aims 1, 2 and 3 simultaneously on the same subjects to increase data capture. By having the same subjects perform all three specific aims we can enhance our ability to detect how a wider range of factors can predict adaptability in a specific individual. This provides a much richer database and potentially a better understanding of the predictive power of the selected factors. In this presentation I will discuss preliminary data obtained to date.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cell prestress. II. Contribution of microtubules

The tensegrity model hypothesizes that cytoskeleton-based microtubules (MTs) carry compression as they balance a portion of cell contractile stress. To test this hypothesis, we used traction force microscopy to measure traction at the interface of adhering human airway smooth muscle cells and a flexible polyacrylamide gel substrate. The prediction is that if MTs balance a portion of contractile stress, then, upon their disruption, the portion of stress balanced by MTs would shift to the substrate, thereby causing an increase in traction. Measurements were done first in maximally activated cells (10 microM histamine) and then again after MTs had been disrupted (1 microM colchicine). We found that after disruption of MTs, traction increased on average by approximately 13%. Because in activated cells colchicine induced neither an increase in intracellular Ca(2+) nor an increase in myosin light chain phosphorylation as shown previously, we concluded that the observed increase in traction was a result of load shift from MTs to the substrate. In addition, energy stored in the flexible substrate was calculated as work done by traction on the deformation of the substrate. This result was then utilized in an energetic analysis. We assumed that cytoskeleton-based MTs are slender elastic rods supported laterally by intermediate filaments and that MTs buckle as the cell contracts. Using the post-buckling equilibrium theory of Euler struts, we found that energy stored during buckling of MTs was quantitatively consistent with the measured increase in substrate energy after disruption of MTs. This is further evidence supporting the idea that MTs are intracellular compression-bearing elements.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1994

The collision of Jupiter and Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9

A simple description of the disruption and deceleration of 100-m- to 5-km-diameter comets striking Jupiter is combined with numerical simulations of the subsequent explosions to predict the fate of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Detailed numerical simulations of the first 3 min of the explosion were performed. Our numerical simulations begin either with hot cylinders with dimensions suggested by the disruption and deceleration model or with an initial wake constructed from a moving line charge. In all cases, extensive plumes of hot gas are expelled from the atmosphere. The models with wakes evolve about twice as fast as the initially confined models. Models of both types generate similar pressure waves into the planet. Temperatures and negative hydrogen ion opacities were computed. For atmospheric entry, light curves were computed. On entry the largest bolides could be very bright, possibly as bright as Jupiter for observers placed to see them, although for kilometer-size impactors the luminosity peak is obscured by clouds. For the fireball, light curves were computed from the numerical simulations. Metals from the vaporized comet provide electrons that dramatically increase the opacity of Jovian air at low temperature. The fireball rises through and above the atmosphere, brightening at first as its surface area increases, but later fading to invisibility as its temperature drops and its opacity plummets.

Zahnle, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1998

Vestibulospinal adaptation to microgravity

Human balance control is known to be transiently disrupted after spaceflight; however, the mechanisms responsible for postflight postural ataxia are still under investigation. In this report, we propose a conceptual model of vestibulospinal adaptation based on theoretical adaptive control concepts and supported by the results from a comprehensive study of balance control recovery after spaceflight. The conceptual model predicts that immediately after spaceflight the balance control system of a returning astronaut does not expect to receive gravity-induced afferent inputs and that descending vestibulospinal control of balance is disrupted until the central nervous system is able to cope with the newly available vestibular otolith information. Predictions of the model are tested using data from a study of the neurosensory control of balance in astronauts immediately after landing. In that study, the mechanisms of sensorimotor balance control were assessed under normal, reduced, and/or altered (sway-referenced) visual and somatosensory input conditions. We conclude that the adaptive control model accurately describes the neurobehavioral responses to spaceflight and that similar models of altered sensory, motor, or environmental constraints are needed clinically to predict responses that patients with sensorimotor pathologies may have to various visual-vestibular or changing stimulus environments.

manned↗
NASA NTRS1981

Computation of inverse magnetic cascades

Inverse cascades of magnetic quantities for turbulent incompressible magnetohydrodynamics are reviewed, for two and three dimensions. The theory is extended to the Strauss equations, a description intermediate between two and three dimensions appropriate to Tokamak magnetofluids. Consideration of the absolute equilibrium Gibbs ensemble for the system leads to a prediction of an inverse cascade of magnetic helicity, which may manifest itself as a major disruption. An agenda for computational investigation of this conjecture is proposed.

Montgomery, D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Understanding and Counteracting Fatigue in Flight Crews

The materials included in the collection of documents describe the research of the NASA Ames Fatigue Countermeasures Group (FCG), which examines the extent to which fatigue, sleep loss, and circadian disruption affect flight-crew performance. The group was formed in 1980 in response to a Congressional request to examine a possible safety problem of uncertain magnitude due to transmeridian flying and a potential problem due to fatigue in association with various factors found in air-transport operations and was originally called the Fatigue/Jet Lag Program. The goals of the FCG are: (1) the development and evaluation of strategies for mitigating the effects of sleepiness and circadian disruption on pilot performance levels; (2) the identification and evaluation of objective approaches for the prediction of alertness changes in flight crews; and (3) the transfer and application of research results to the operational field via classes, workshops, and safety briefings. Some of the countermeasure approaches that have been identified to be scientifically valid and operationally relevant are brief naps (less than 40 min) in the cockpit seat and 7-min activity breaks, which include postural changes and ambulation. Although a video-based alertness monitor based on slow eyelid closure shows promise in other operational environments, research by the FCG has demonstrated that in its current form at the time of this reporting, it is not feasible to implement it in the cockpit. Efforts also focus on documenting the impact of untreated fatigue on various types of flight operations. For example, the FCG recently completed a major investigation into the effects of ultra-long-range flights (20 continuous hours in duration) on the alertness and performance of pilots in order to establish a baseline set of parameters against which the effectiveness of new ultra-long-range fatigue remedies can be judged.

Mallis, Melissa↗
NASA NTRS2016

Behavioral, Brain Imaging and Genomic Measures to Predict Functional Outcomes Post - Bed Rest and Spaceflight

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during their initial exposure to microgravity and during the re-adaptation phase following a return to an Earth-gravitational environment. These alterations may disrupt crewmembers' ability to perform mission critical functional tasks requiring ambulation, manual control and gaze stability. Interestingly, astronauts who return from spaceflight show substantial differences in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which individual astronauts would be affected would improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. For such an approach to succeed, we must develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to foresee, before actual spaceflight, which crewmembers are likely to experience the greatest challenges to their adaptive capacities. The goals of this project are to identify and characterize this set of predictive measures. Our approach includes: 1) behavioral tests to assess sensory bias and adaptability quantified using both strategic and plastic-adaptive responses; 2) imaging to determine individual brain morphological and functional features, using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging, resting state functional connectivity MRI, and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation; and 3) assessment of genotypic markers of genetic polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyl transferase, dopamine receptor D2, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor genes and genetic polymorphisms of alpha2-adrenergic receptors that play a role in the neural pathways underlying sensorimotor adaptation. We anticipate that these predictive measures will be significantly correlated with individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability after long-duration spaceflight and exposure to an analog bed rest environment. We will be conducting a retrospective study, leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing or completed bed rest and spaceflight studies. These data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively (as described for behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures) from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post-mission (bed rest - non-astronauts or space flight - astronauts) adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. To date we have completed a study on 15 normal subjects with all of the above measures. In this presentation we will discuss the optimized set of tests for predictive metrics to be used for evaluating post mission adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive capacity, brain structure and functional capacities, and genetic predispositions. The ability to customize adaptability training will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to ensure expected outcomes.

Mulavara, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Searching for Chips of Kuiper Belt Objects in Meteorites

The Nice model [1&2] describes a scenario whereby the Jovian planets experienced a violent reshuffling event approx.3:9 Ga the giant planets moved, existing small body reservoirs were depleted or eliminated, and new reservoirs were created in particular locations. The Nice model quantitatively explains the orbits of the Jovian planets and Neptune [1], the orbits of bodies in several different small body reservoirs in the outer solar system (e.g., Trojans of Jupiter [2], the Kuiper belt and scattered disk [3], the irregular satellites of the giant planets [4], and the late heavy bombardment on the terrestrial planets approx.3:9 Ga [5]. This model is unique in plausibly explaining all of these phenomena. One issue with the Nice model is that it predicts that transported Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) (things looking like D class asteroids) should predominate in the outer asteroid belt, but we know only about 10% of the objects in the outer main asteroid belt appear to be D-class objects [6]. However based upon collisional modeling, Bottke et al. [6] argue that more than 90% of the objects captured in the outer main belt could have been eliminated by impacts if they had been weakly-indurated objects. These disrupted objects should have left behind pieces in the ancient regoliths of other, presumably stronger asteroids. Thus, a derived prediction of the Nice model is that ancient regolith samples (regolith-bearing meteorites) should contain fragments of collisionally-destroyed Kuiper belt objects. In fact KBO pieces might be expected to be present in most ancient regolith- bearing meteorites [7&8].

Zolensky, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Behavioral, Brain Imaging and Genomic Measures to Predict Functional Outcomes Post-Bed Rest and Space Flight

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during their initial exposure to microgravity and during the re-adaptation phase following a return to an Earth-gravitational environment. These alterations may disrupt crewmembers' ability to perform mission critical functional tasks requiring ambulation, manual control and gaze stability. Interestingly, astronauts who return from spaceflight show substantial differences in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which individual astronauts are affected will improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. For such an approach to succeed, we must develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to foresee, before actual spaceflight, which crewmembers are likely to experience greater challenges to their adaptive capacities. The goals of this project are to identify and characterize this set of predictive measures. Our approach includes: 1) behavioral tests to assess sensory bias and adaptability quantified using both strategic and plastic-adaptive responses; 2) imaging to determine individual brain morphological and functional features, using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging, resting state functional connectivity MRI, and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation; and 3) assessment of genetic polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyl transferase, dopamine receptor D2, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor genes and genetic polymorphisms of alpha2-adrenergic receptors that play a role in the neural pathways underlying sensorimotor adaptation. We anticipate that these predictive measures will be significantly correlated with individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability after long-duration spaceflight and exposure to an analog bed rest environment. We will be conducting a retrospective study, leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing or completed bed rest and spaceflight studies. This data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively (as described for behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures) from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post spaceflight and bed rest adaptive capability. In this presentation we will discuss the optimized set of tests for predictive metrics to be used for evaluating post mission adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive ability, brain structure, brain function, and genetic predispositions. The ability to customize adaptability training will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to mitigate the deleterious effects of spaceflight.

Mulavara, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The climatic effects of nuclear war

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Turco, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗
NASA NTRS1994

Large ejecta fragments from asteroids

The asteroid 4 Vesta, with its unique basaltic crust, remains a key mystery of planetary evolution. A localized olivine feature suggests excavation of subcrustal material in a crater or impact basin comparable in size to the planetary radius (R(sub vesta) is approximately = 280 km). Furthermore, a 'clan' of small asteroids associated with Vesta (by spectral and orbital similarities) may be ejecta from this impact 151 and direct parents of the basaltic achondrites. To escape, these smaller (about 4-7 km) asteroids had to be ejected at speeds greater than the escape velocity, v(sub esc) is approximately = 350 m/s. This evidence that large fragments were ejected at high speed from Vesta has not been reconciled with the present understanding of impact physics. Analytical spallation models predict that an impactor capable of ejecting these 'chips off Vesta' would be almost the size of Vesta! Such an impact would lead to the catastrophic disruption of both bodies. A simpler analysis is outlined, based on comparison with cratering on Mars, and it is shown that Vesta could survive an impact capable of ejecting kilometer-scale fragments at sufficient speed. To what extent does Vesta survive the formation of such a large crater? This is best addressed using a hydrocode such as SALE 2D with centroidal gravity to predict velocities subsequent to impact. The fragmentation outcome and velocity subsequent to the impact described to demonstrate that Vesta survives without large-scale disassembly or overturning of the crust. Vesta and its clan represent a valuable dataset for testing fragmentation hydrocodes such as SALE 2D and SPH 3D at planetary scales. Resolution required to directly model spallation 'chips' on a body 100 times as large is now marginally possible on modern workstations. These boundaries are important in near-surface ejection processes and in large-scale disruption leading to asteroid families and stripped cores.

Asphaug, E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

High energy neutrinos from primary cosmic rays accelerated in the cores of active galaxies

The spectra and high-energy neutrino fluxes are calculated from photomeson production in active galactic nuclei (AGN) such as quasars and Seyfert galaxies using recent UV and X-ray observations to define the photon fields and an accretion-disk shock-acceleration model for producing ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays in the AGN. Collectively AGN should produce the dominant isotropic neutrino background between 10 exp 4 and 10 exp 10 GeV. Measurement of this background could be critical in determining the energy-generation mechanism, evolution, and distribution of AGN. High-energy background spectra and spectra from bright AGN such as NGC4151 and 3C273 are predicted which should be observable with present detectors. High energy AGN nus should produce a sphere of stellar disruption around their cores which could explain their observed broad-line emission regions.

Stecker, F. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A novel mechanism for creating double pulsars

Simulations of encounters between pairs of hard binaries, each containing a neutron star and a main-sequence star, reveal a new formation mechanism for double pulsars in dense cores of globular clusters. In many cases, the two normal stars are disrupted to form a common envelope around the pair of neutron stars, both of which will be spun up to become millisecond pulsars. We predict that a new class of pulsars, double millisecond pulsars, will be discovered in the cores of dense globular clusters. The genesis proceeds through a short-lived double-core common envelope phase, with the envelope ejected in a fast wind. It is possible that the progenitor may also undergo a double X-ray binary phase. Any circular, short-period double pulsar found in the galaxy would necessarily come from disrupted disk clusters, unlike Hulse-Taylor class pulsars or low-mass X-ray binaries which may be ejected from clusters or formed in the galaxy.

Sigurdsson, Steinn↗