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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Cosmic Frontier Project at SMU

The SMU group led by Professor Robert Kehoe continued to work to constrain dark energy measurements of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). These constraints are obtained by measuring the expected peak in characteristic distance scale between galaxies, the ‘BAO peak’, as a function of redshift for four different types of galaxy. DESI will cover the redshift range to z<3.5 with approximately 40 million galaxy spectra. SMU’s primary emphasis during the funding period was on the early DESI data, including the development of software that would allow the measurement of the impact of incomplete targeting of galaxies in the survey. We provided software to calculate the weights that are critical to permit us to correctly compare data to the theoretical calculations of dark matter halos. SMU also began development of software that can be integrated into the analysis pipeline that uses alternate targeting to generate these weights. Baryonic physics has a critical impact on galaxy development and placement within dark matter halos. SMU also increased its efforts in the area of modeling this galaxy-halo connection in two areas. The primary emphasis was to work on a sub-halo abundance matching scheme using dark matter simulation with very fine mass resolution (‘Uchuu’). Our effort here is to produce models for use by DESI that more correctly account for the subhalo structure of dark matter distribution, and its manifestation in satellite galaxies. Our initial effort had been for emission line galaxies. In the funding period, we were able to produce first halo-occupation distribution models. This work is slated to contribute to DESI Key Project papers. We also furthered our ongoing effort to study galaxy placement in halos using semi-analytic methods. Kehoe’s group also continued to maintain its strong role in DESI Operations, with SMU postdoc serving as a Lead Observing Scientist.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 10: Controllability and Observability Analysis (Deliverable D7))

It is common to have less than full observability for distribution systems, as the number of available measurements are not sufficient. Considering increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), it is imperative to understand and control distribution systems better. Developed for the transmission system, the original numerical observability analysis methods were based on the canonical DC Power Flow (DC-PF) model. However, the DC-PF model is ill-suited for the distribution system in which line resistance to reactance (R/X) ratios can be near unity. In this report, we apply the non-iterative Observability Test (OT) and Observable Island Identification Procedure (OIIP) in to the gain matrix from the distribution system state estimator. Because sensors are few in distribution systems, pseudo-measurements based on historical load profiles and zero-injection virtual measurements are often employed to ensure observability. However, both the observability and the accuracy of the state estimates are uncertain when historical data is limited/unavailable.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Tree architecture: A strigolactone-deficient mutant reveals a connection between branching order and auxin gradient along the tree stem

Due to their long lifespan, trees and bushes develop higher order of branches in a perennial manner. In contrast to a tall tree, with a clearly defined main stem and branching order, a bush is shorter and has a less apparent main stem and branching pattern. To address the developmental basis of these two forms, we studied several naturally occurring architectural variants in silver birch (Betula pendula). Using a candidate gene approach, we identified a bushy kanttarelli variant with a loss-of-function mutation in the BpMAX1 gene required for strigolactone (SL) biosynthesis. While kanttarelli is shorter than the wild type (WT), it has the same number of primary branches, whereas the number of secondary branches is increased, contributing to its bush-like phenotype. To confirm that the identified mutation was responsible for the phenotype, we phenocopied kanttarelli in transgenic BpMAX1::RNAi birch lines. SL profiling confirmed that both kanttarelli and the transgenic lines produced very limited amounts of SL. Interestingly, the auxin (IAA) distribution along the main stem differed between WT and BpMAX1::RNAi. In the WT, the auxin concentration formed a gradient, being higher in the uppermost internodes and decreasing toward the basal part of the stem, whereas in the transgenic line, this gradient was not observed. Through modeling, we showed that the different IAA distribution patterns may result from the difference in the number of higher-order branches and plant height. Future studies will determine whether the IAA gradient itself regulates aspects of plant architecture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗

Use of Traveling Wave Signatures in Medium-Voltage Distribution Systems for Fault Detection and Location

Protection systems are a critical feature for the proper operation of a power grid. Protection systems should be able to quickly detect, identify, locate, and isolate the faults within a time frame that prevents damage to grid components and reduces customer outages. As more inverter-based photovoltaics (PV) are integrated into the grid, phasor domain based protection schemes become more inaccurate due to low levels of fault current from inverters or respond too slowly to accurately identify fault conditions. This points to the need to identify and develop novel protection approaches for distribution systems with high penetration of inverter based PV. The main objective of the project is to develop new time domain-based protection schemes to enable more accurate and faster detection, identification and location of faults in distribution systems and/or microgrids with high penetration of inverter-based PV. Our approach aims to exploit the traveling waves that are generated during a fault or other disturbances in the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spectral solar irradiance on inclined surfaces: A fast Monte Carlo approach

Estimating spectral plane-of-array (POA) solar irradiance on inclined surfaces is an important step in the design and performance evaluation of both photovoltaic and concentrated solar plants. This work introduces a fast, line-by-line spectral, Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer model approach to simulate anisotropic distributions of shortwave radiation through the atmosphere as photon bundles impinge on inclined surfaces. This fast Monte Carlo approach reproduces the angular distribution of solar irradiance without the undesirable effects of spatial discretization and thus computes detailed POA irradiance values on surfaces at any orientation and also when surfaces are subjected to the anisotropic ground and atmospheric scattering. Polarization effects are also easily incorporated into this approach that can be considered as direct numerical simulation of the physics involved. Here, we compare our Monte Carlo radiative transfer model with the most widely used empirical transposition model, Perez4, under various conditions. The results show that the Perez4 model reproduces the more detailed Monte Carlo simulations with less than 10% deviation under clear skies for all relevant surface tilt and azimuth angles. When optically thin clouds are present, observed deviations are larger, especially when the receiving surface is strongly tilted. Deviations are also observed for large azimuth angle differences between the receiving surface and the solar position. When optically thick clouds are present, the two models agree within 15% deviation for nearly all surface orientation and tilt angles. The overall deviations are smaller when compared with cases for optically thin clouds. The Perez4 model performs very well (6.0% deviation) in comparison with the detailed MC simulations for all cases, thus validating its widespread use for practical solar applications. When detailed atmospheric profiles and cloud optical properties are available, the proposed fast Monte Carlo radiative model reproduces accurate spectral and angular POA irradiance levels for various atmospheric and cloud cover conditions, surface orientations, and different surface and ground properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Subglacial hydrology is a leading control on basal friction and the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. At low discharge, subglacial water flows through high-pressure, sheet-like systems that lead to low effective pressures. However, at high discharge, subglacial water melts the overlying ice into localized channels that efficiently remove water from the bed, thereby increasing effective pressure and basal friction. Recent observations suggest channelized subglacial flow exists beneath Thwaites Glacier, yet it remains unclear if stable channelization is feasible in West Antarctica, where surface melting is nonexistent and water at the bed is limited. Here, we use the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model to run a suite of over 130 subglacial hydrology simulations of Thwaites Glacier across a wide range of physical parameter choices to assess the likelihood of channelization. We then narrow our range of viable simulations by comparing modeled water thicknesses to previously observed radar specularity content, which indicates flat, spatially extensive water bodies at the bed. In all of our data-compatible simulations, stable channels reliably form within 100–200 km of the grounding line and reach individual discharge rates of 35–110 m3 s−1 at the ice–ocean boundary. While only one to two channels typically form across the 200 km width of the glacier in our simulations, their high efficiency drains water across the entire lateral extent of the glacier. We posit the large catchment size of Thwaites Glacier, its funnel-like geometry, and high basal melt rates together accumulate enough water to form stable channels. No simulations resembled observed specularity content when channelization was disabled. Our results suggest channelized subglacial hydrology has two consequences for Thwaites Glacier dynamics: (i) amplifying submarine melting of the terminus and ice shelf while (ii) simultaneously raising effective pressure within 100 km of the grounding line and increasing basal friction. The distribution of effective pressure implied from our modeling differs from parameterizations typically used in large-scale ice sheet models, suggesting the development of more process-based parameterizations may be necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments

Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling dislocation-related leakage currents in GaN p-n diodes

Finite element analysis software was used to model and visualize two p-n junction models: one with a single threading dislocation (TD) and a control model without a dislocation. TDs are modeled as a Gaussian distribution of trap states with an FWHM of 5 nm localized around the r=0 line in a cylindrical coordination such that the linear trap state density was 1 trap/c-translation; this model allows the cylindrical symmetry of the c-plane GaN crystal orientation to be utilized to avoid more computationally intensive 3D models. It was discovered that the interaction of the charged dislocation region with the p-n junction had many notable effects. At zero bias, it was observed that the depletion region width (using the Depletion Approximation) and the maximum electric field were markedly reduced near the dislocation line. More significantly, an asymmetric reduction in the diffusion barrier for electrons (Vbieff=3.03eV) and holes (Vbieff=0.81eV) was observed due to the asymmetric nature of the dislocation band bending related to the doping. The asymmetric reductions in diffusion barriers persisted into VA=2.4V leakage case where asymmetric current profiles for electrons and holes were also observed. Lastly, the diffusion barrier reduction resulted in an additional Shockley-Read-Hall nonradiative recombination leakage caused by a high np-product and trap state density near the intersection of the dislocation with the junction.

Robertson, C. A. (ORCID:0000000300122262)↗

Study on Conversion from an Existing Alternating Current Medium-Voltage Line to a Direct Current Line: A Case of Load or Source Expansion

Simultaneous increase of power generation through renewable systems and load due owing to the rapid growth in electrified road transportation systems, leads to new challenges in the design, operation, and protection of distribution-level electrical power systems. This paper addresses challenges related to the integration of new sources or loads to a distribution grid through long alternating current lines. The International Council on Large Electric Systems medium-voltage benchmark model developed for North America was used for simulation studies. Use cases were developed to illuminate the issues related to long alternating current lines and the usefulness of medium-voltage direct current lines in a distribution network.

Jaldanki, Sreenivasa↗

Optical galaxy cluster mock catalogs with realistic projection effects: Validations with the SDSS clusters

Galaxy clusters identified in optical imaging surveys suffer from projection effects: Physically unassociated galaxies along a cluster’s line of sight can be counted as its members and boost the observed richness (the number of cluster members). To model the impact of projection on cluster cosmology analyses, we apply a halo occupation distribution model to 𝑁-body simulations to simulate the red galaxies contributing to cluster members, and we use the number of galaxies in a cylinder along the line of sight (counts in cylinders) to model the impact of projection on cluster richness. We compare three projection models: uniform, quadratic, and Gaussian, and we convert between them by matching their effective cylinder volumes. We validate our mock catalogs using SDSS redMaPPer clusters’ data vectors, including counts vs richness, stacked lensing signal, spectroscopic redshift distribution of member galaxies, and richness remeasured on a redshift grid. We find the former two are insensitive to the projection model, while the latter two favor a quadratic projection model with a width of ≈180 ℎ −1 Mpc (equivalent to the volume of a uniform model with a width of 100 ℎ −1 Mpc and a Gaussian model with a width of 110 ℎ −1 Mpc, or a Gaussian redshift error of 0.04). Furthermore, our framework provides an efficient and flexible way to model optical cluster data vectors, paving the way for a simulation-based joint analysis for clusters, galaxies, and shear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Repair and Resource Scheduling in Unbalanced Distribution Systems Using Neighborhood Search

—This paper proposes an optimization strategy to assist utility operators to recover power distribution systems after large outages. Specifically, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed for co-optimizing crews, resources, and network operations. The MILP model coordinates damage isolation, network reconfiguration, distributed generator re-dispatch, and crew/resource logistics. In addition, a framework for integrating different types of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the restoration process is developed. We consider two different types of crews, namely, line crews for damage repair and tree crews for obstacle removal. We also model the repair resource logistic constraints. Furthermore, a new algorithm is developed for solving the distribution system repair and restoration problem (DSRRP). The algorithm starts by solving DSRRP using an assignmentbased method, then a neighborhood search method is designed to iteratively improve the solution. The proposed method is validated on modified IEEE 123- and 8500-bus distribution test systems.

Outage management↗

Kinetic Landau-fluid closures of non-Maxwellian distributions

New kinetic Landau-fluid closures, based on the cutoff Maxwellian distribution, are derived. A special static case is considered (the frequency ω=0). In the strongly collisional regime, our model reduces to Braginskii's heat flux model, and the transport is local. In the weak collisional regime, our model indicates that the heat flux is non-local and recovers the Hammett–Perkins model while the value of the cutoff velocity approaches to infinity. We compare the thermal transport coefficient χ of Maxwellian, cutoff Maxwellian and super-Gaussian distribution. The results show that the reduction of the high-speed tail particles leads to the corresponding reduction of the thermal transport coefficient χ across the entire range of collisionality, more reduction of the free streaming transport toward the weak collisional regime. In the collisionless limit, χ approaches to zero for the cutoff Maxwellian and the super-Gaussian distribution but remains finite for Maxwellian distribution. χ is complex if the cutoff Maxwellian distribution is asymmetric. The Im(χ) approaches to different convergent values in both collisionless and strongly collisional limit, respectively. It yields an additional streaming heat flux in comparison with the symmetric cutoff Maxwellian distribution. Furthermore, due to the asymmetric distribution, there is a background heat flux q0 though there is no perturbation. Furthermore, the derived Landau-fluid closures are general for fluid moment models, and applicable for the cutoff Maxwellian distribution in an open magnetic field line region, such as the scape-off-layer of Tokamak plasmas, in the thermal quench plasmas during a tokamak disruption, and the super-Gaussian electron distribution function due to inverse bremsstrahlung heating in laser-plasma studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Genome-scale model development and genomic sequencing of the oleaginous clade Lipomyces

The Lipomyces clade contains oleaginous yeast species with advantageous metabolic features for biochemical and biofuel production. Limited knowledge about the metabolic networks of the species and limited tools for genetic engineering have led to a relatively small amount of research on the microbes. Here, a genome-scale metabolic model (GSM) of Lipomyces starkeyi NRRL Y-11557 was built using orthologous protein mappings to model yeast species. Phenotypic growth assays were used to validate the GSM (66% accuracy) and indicated that NRRL Y-11557 utilized diverse carbohydrates but had more limited catabolism of organic acids. The final GSM contained 2,193 reactions, 1,909 metabolites, and 996 genes and was thus named iLst996. The model contained 96 of the annotated carbohydrate-active enzymes. iLst996 predicted a flux distribution in line with oleaginous yeast measurements and was utilized to predict theoretical lipid yields. Twenty-five other yeasts in the Lipomyces clade were then genome sequenced and annotated. Sixteen of the Lipomyces species had orthologs for more than 97% of the iLst996 genes, demonstrating the usefulness of iLst996 as a broad GSM for Lipomyces metabolism. Pathways that diverged from iLst996 mainly revolved around alternate carbon metabolism, with ortholog groups excluding NRRL Y-11557 annotated to be involved in transport, glycerolipid, and starch metabolism, among others. Overall, this study provides a useful modeling tool and data for analyzing and understanding Lipomyces species metabolism and will assist further engineering efforts in Lipomyces .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The PAU Survey: an improved photo- z sample in the COSMOS field

Here we present – and make publicly available – accurate and precise photometric redshifts in the ACS footprint from the COSMOS field for objects with i AB ≤ 23. The redshifts are computed using a combination of narrow-band photometry from PAUS, a survey with 40 narrow bands spaced at $100\,\mathring{\rm A}$ intervals covering the range from 4500 to $8500\,\mathring{\rm A}$, and 26 broad, intermediate, and narrow bands covering the UV, visible and near-infrared spectrum from the COSMOS2015 catalogue. We introduce a new method that models the spectral energy distributions as a linear combination of continuum and emission-line templates and computes its Bayes evidence, integrating over the linear combinations. The correlation between the UV luminosity and the $\mathrm{O\,{\small II}}$ line is measured using the 66 available bands with the zCOSMOS spectroscopic sample, and used as a prior which constrains the relative flux between continuum and emission-line templates. The flux ratios between the $\mathrm{O\,{\small II}}$ line and H α , H β and $\mathrm{O\,{\small III}}$ are similarly measured and used to generate the emission-line templates. Comparing to public spectroscopic surveys via the quantity Δ z ≡ (z photo – z spec )/(1 + z spec ), we find the photometric redshifts to be more precise than previous estimates, with σ 68 (Δ z ) ≈ (0.003, 0.009) for galaxies at magnitude i AB ~ 18 and i AB ~ 23, respectively, which is three times and 1.66 times tighter than COSMOS2015. Additionally, we find the redshifts to be very accurate on average, yielding a median of the Δ z distribution compatible with |median(Δ z )| ≤ 0.001 at all redshifts and magnitudes considered. Both the added PAUS data and new methodology contribute significantly to the improved results. The catalogue produced with the technique presented here is expected to provide a robust redshift calibration for current and future lensing surveys, and allows one to probe galaxy formation physics in an unexplored luminosity-redshift regime, thanks to its combination of depth, completeness, and excellent redshift precision and accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable Active Galactic Nuclei in the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey

We searched the northern hemisphere fields of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey for galaxies with UV variability indicative of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We identified 48 high-probability candidate AGNs from a parent sample of 1819 galaxies in the NASA Sloan Atlas catalog. We further characterized these systems using optical spectroscopic diagnostics, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer IR color selection criteria, and spectral energy distribution modeling. Of the 48 candidates, eight were identified as AGNs from optical emission lines, two were identified by their IR colors, and 28 were identified through spectral energy decomposition. Observational biases of each selection method are discussed in connecting these AGN subsamples to another. By selecting AGNs based on UV variability, we also identified six low-mass AGN candidates, all of which would have been missed by spectroscopic selection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STRIDES: a 3.9 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant from the strong lens system DES J0408−5354

We present a blind time-delay cosmographic analysis for the lens system DES J0408−5354. This system is extraordinary for the presence of two sets of multiple images at different redshifts, which provide the opportunity to obtain more information at the cost of increased modelling complexity with respect to previously analysed systems. We perform detailed modelling of the mass distribution for this lens system using three band Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We combine the measured time delays, line-of-sight central velocity dispersion of the deflector, and statistically constrained external convergence with our lens models to estimate two cosmological distances. We measure the ‘effective’ time-delay distance corresponding to the redshifts of the deflector and the lensed quasar |$D_{\Delta t}^{\rm eff}=$||$3382_{-115}^{+146}$| Mpc and the angular diameter distance to the deflector D_d = |$1711_{-280}^{+376}$| Mpc, with covariance between the two distances. From these constraints on the cosmological distances, we infer the Hubble constant H_0= |$74.2_{-3.0}^{+2.7}$| km s^−1 Mpc^−^1 assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and a uniform prior for Ω_m as |$\Omega _{\rm m} \sim \mathcal {U}(0.05, 0.5)$|⁠. This measurement gives the most precise constraint on H_0 to date from a single lens. Our measurement is consistent with that obtained from the previous sample of six lenses analysed by the H_0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL’s Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration. It is also consistent with measurements of H_0 based on the local distance ladder, reinforcing the tension with the inference from early Universe probes, for example, with 2.2σ discrepancy from the cosmic microwave background measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗