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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

ELM model simulations of Plum Island Ecosystems LTER low marsh site 2018-2020

Model simulations using the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) with improved capabilities to represent vegetation response to salinity and inundation. The simulations were conducted for a tidal salt marsh at Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site near Rowley, Massachusetts, USA; the site is a low marsh dominated by Spartina alterniflora. The model was forced with site-specific meteorology, salinity and tidal cycles from 2018-2020. Four sets of model simulations are included and described below:1. Parameterization of the salinity response function. These simulations tested different combinations of values for optimal salinity and salinity tolerance.2. Model evaluation. This comparison conducted simulations using the default model, the salinity function only, the submergence function only, and both the salinity and submergence functions. 3. Salinity scenarios. These simulations used the 2018 salinity input data varied by -5 to +10 ppt salinity.4. Water level scenarios. These simulations used the tide height varied by -10 to +50 cm. These simulations were used to demonstrate how the salinity and submergence functions better represent carbon uptake by tidal salt marshes.The data package includes netCDF files used as forcing files for tide height and salinity, one for each year 2018-2020 at observed salinity concentrations, and an additional three forcing files in which salinity concentrations were varied 5 ppt lower, 5 ppt higher, and 10 ppt higher than the measured 2018 time series. Also included are python scripts for creating forcing files, plain text parameter and command files for running simulations, model outputs in netCDF format, and python scripts for visualizing outputs. Code for the modified E3SM model is archived in Sulman et al 2023 at doi:10.15485/1991625. More detail about files is provided in the README.md file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

MULTI-FIDELITY MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF INVERTER BASED RESOURCES IN INTEGRATED T&D SYSTEMS

Uncertainty quantification plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy and reliability of inverter operation within modern power systems that are increasingly dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs). IBRs, especially those operating under grid forming (GFM) control, rely heavily on a complex set of control parameters and system measurements to maintain voltage, frequency, and power balance. Traditional deterministic modeling approaches often fail to capture these parameter deviations, potentially resulting in suboptimal control actions, reduced system stability, or even instability under high penetration of IBRs. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of model calibration and uncertainty quantification (UQ) principles to an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) model involving a GFM converter and provide a framework for prioritizing control improvements, guiding robust design, and informing adaptive strategies that can accommodate real-time variability in system conditions. The proposed approach could be valuable in enhancing the robustness of current and future power systems under increased IBR penetrations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transfer learning for analysis of collective and non-collective Thomson scattering spectra

Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostics provide reliable, minimally perturbative measurements of fundamental plasma parameters, such as electron density (⁠n e ) and electron temperature (⁠T e ⁠). Deep neural networks can provide accurate estimates of ⁠n e and T e when conventional fitting algorithms may fail, such as when TS spectra are dominated by noise, or when fast analysis is required for real-time operation. Although deep neural networks typically require large training sets, transfer learning can improve model performance on a target task with limited data by leveraging pre-trained models from related source tasks, where select hidden layers are further trained using target data. We present five architecturally diverse deep neural networks, pre-trained on synthetic TS data and adapted for experimentally measured TS data, to evaluate the efficacy of transfer learning in estimating n e and T e in both the collective and non-collective scattering regimes. We evaluate errors in n e and T e estimates as a function of training set size for models trained with and without transfer learning, and we observe decreases in model error from transfer learning when the training set contains ≲ 200 experimentally measured spectra.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino flavor instabilities in neutron star mergers with moment transport: Slow, fast, and collisional modes

Determining where, when, and how neutrino flavor oscillations must be included in large-scale simulations of hot and dense astrophysical environments is an enduring challenge that must be tackled to obtain accurate predictions. Here, using an angular moment-based linear stability analysis framework, we examine the different kinds of flavor instabilities that can take place in the context of the postprocessing of a neutron star merger simulation, with a particular focus on the collisional flavor instability and a careful assessment of several commonly used approximations. First, neglecting anisotropies of the neutrino field, we investigate the extent to which commonly used monoenergetic growth rates reproduce the results obtained from a full multienergy treatment. Contrary to the large discrepancies found in core-collapse supernova environments, we propose a simple combination of energy-averaged estimates that reproduces the multienergy growth rates in our representative simulation snapshot. We then quantify the impact of additional physical effects, including nuclear many-body corrections, scattering opacities, and the inclusion of the vacuum term in the neutrino Hamiltonian. Finally, we include the neutrino distribution anisotropies, which allows us to explore, for the first time in a multienergy setting, the interplay between collisional, fast, and slow modes in a moment-based neutron star merger simulation. We find that, despite a dominance of the fast instability in most of the simulation volume, certain regions exhibit only a collisional instability, while others, especially at large distances, exhibit a slow instability that is largely underestimated if anisotropic effects are neglected.

neutrino oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of cross sections for mesonless charged-current muon neutrino interactions on argon with and without protons at MicroBooNE

urrent and upcoming neutrino experiments at Fermilab will rely on liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) as the primary detector technology. To reach the ambitious precision required for their physics goals, a detailed understanding of neutrino-argon scattering must be achieved. For the present Short-Baseline Neutrino program, the dominant reaction channel is charged-current muon neutrino interactions leading to mesonless final states with and without protons. Using a large data set of neutrino interactions recorded by the MicroBooNE LArTPC detector at Fermilab, we report progress towards new measurements of differential cross sections in this channel. The analysis leverages multiple event reconstruction paradigms and observables specifically chosen to maximize sensitivity to nuclear effects of interest for improving neutrino scattering models. Related previous cross-section results from MicroBooNE and a preview of what to expect from the new analysis will both be featured in this presentation.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Analysis and Systematic Uncertainties

We present the full Hubble diagram of photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey supernova program (DES-SN). DES-SN discovered more than 20,000 SN candidates and obtained spectroscopic redshifts of 7000 host galaxies. Based on the light-curve quality, we select 1635 photometrically identified SNe Ia with spectroscopic redshift 0.10 < z < 1.13, which is the largest sample of supernovae from any single survey and increases the number of known z > 0.5 supernovae by a factor of 5. In a companion paper, we present cosmological results of the DES-SN sample combined with 194 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia at low redshift as an anchor for cosmological fits. Here we present extensive modeling of this combined sample and validate the entire analysis pipeline used to derive distances. We show that the statistical and systematic uncertainties on cosmological parameters are ${\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M},\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{{\rm{\Lambda }}\mathrm{CDM}}=$ 0.017 in a flat ΛCDM model, and $({\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M}},{\sigma }_{w}{)}_{\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{w\mathrm{CDM}}$ = (0.082, 0.152) in a flat wCDM model. Combining the DES SN data with the highly complementary cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck Collaboration reduces by a factor of 4 uncertainties on cosmological parameters. In all cases, statistical uncertainties dominate over systematics. We show that uncertainties due to photometric classification make up less than 10% of the total systematic uncertainty budget. This result sets the stage for the next generation of SN cosmology surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Search for Neutral Current Coherent Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

This article presents the first search for neutrino-induced neutral current coherent single-photon production (NC coherent 1$\gamma$). The search makes use of data from the MicroBooNE 85-tonne active volume liquid argon time projection chamber detector, situated in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB), with an average neutrino energy of $\langle E_{\nu}\rangle \sim 0.8$ GeV. A targeted selection of candidate neutrino interactions with a single photon-like electromagnetic shower in the final state and no visible vertex activity was developed to search for the NC coherent 1$\gamma$ process, along with two auxiliary selections used to constrain the dominant background from NC$\pi^0$ production. With an integrated exposure of $6.87 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target delivered by the BNB, we set the world's first limit for this rare process, corresponding to an upper limit on the flux-averaged cross section of $\sigma<1.49 \times 10^{-41}\text{cm}^2$ at 90% C.L.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

One-sweep moment-based semi-implicit-explicit integration for gray thermal radiation transport

Thermal radiation transport (TRT) is a time dependent, high dimensional partial integro-differential equation. In practical applications such as inertial confinement fusion, TRT is coupled to other physics such as hydrodynamics, plasmas, etc., and the timescales one is interested in capturing are often much slower than the radiation timescale. As a result, TRT is treated implicitly, and due to its stiffness and high dimensionality, is often a dominant computational cost in multiphysics simulations. Here we develop a new approach for implicit-explicit (IMEX) integration of gray TRT in the deterministic SN setting, which requires only one sweep per stage, with the simplest first-order method requiring only one sweep per time step. The partitioning of equations is done via a moment-based high-order low-order formulation of TRT, where the streaming operator and first two moments are used to capture the asymptotic stiff regimes of the streaming limit and diffusion limit. Absorption-reemission is treated explicitly, and although stiff, is sufficiently damped by the implicit solve that we achieve stable accurate time integration without incorporating the coupling of the high order and low order equations implicitly. Due to nonlinear coupling of the high-order and low-order equations through temperature-dependent opacities, to facilitate IMEX partitioning and higher-order methods, we use a semi-implicit integration approach amenable to nonlinear partitions. In conclusion, results are demonstrated on thick Marshak and crooked pipe benchmark problems, demonstrating orders of magnitude improvement in accuracy and wallclock compared with the standard first-order implicit integration typically used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Continuum-based Redshift Measurement in the Roman’s High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey

We investigate the capability of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s (Roman) Wide-Field Instrument G150 slitless grism to detect red, quiescent galaxies based on the current reference survey. We simulate dispersed images for Roman reference High-Latitude Spectroscopic Survey (HLSS) and analyze two-dimensional spectroscopic data using the grism Redshift and Line Analysis (Grizli) software. This study focus on assessing Roman grism’s capability for continuum-level redshift measurement for a redshift range of 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 2.5. The redshift recovery is assessed by setting three requirements of: σ z = $\frac{|z–z_{true}|}{1+z}$ ≤ 0.01, signal-to-noise ratio≥ 5 and the presence of a single dominant peak in redshift likelihood function. We find that, for quiescent galaxies, the reference HLSS can reach a redshift recovery completeness of ≥50% for F158 magnitude brighter than 20.2 mag. We also explore how different survey parameters, such as exposure time and the number of exposures, influence the accuracy and completeness of redshift recovery, providing insights that could optimize future survey strategies and enhance the scientific yield of the Roman in cosmological research.

Astronomical simulations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Who will be making wave energy? A community-driven design approach toward just and sustainable energy futures in Alaska

Renewable energy transition, once thought of as a singular, large-scale switch in industrial energy generating technologies from fossil fuels to renewables, have gained a broader set of requirements, including the need for justice and environmental protection. While discourse around policy and process has grown to consider these requirements, the focus of design of new renewable energy projects and technologies remains dominantly fixed on maximizing energy production, and renewables are falling short of meeting the requirements of just energy transitions. Meanwhile, in design studies, participatory and co-design approaches which explicitly consider justice in both process and outcomes have long been theorized and applied. However, applications of these approaches to renewable energy project design are under-theorized. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of the adoption and adaptation of a co-design approach called Community-Driven Design (CDD) in enabling meaningful participation prior to technological maturity and bringing the attention of designers to a more diverse set of energy futures focused on justice and sustainability. Here, we do so by developing and testing the approach with community members in Sitka, AK, USA. We conclude that the approach has the potential to increase meaningful participation. Furthermore, we conclude that through diverse understandings of energy and the emergence of design narratives that engage with the complexity of vulnerability, accountability, and resilience, CDD led designers to consider justice, sustainability, and a diverse set of possible energy futures both within and beyond Sitka.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic analysis of magnetic equilibrium reconstruction with eddy currents on LTX- β

Magnetic equilibrium reconstruction in the Lithium Tokamak Experiment-Beta (LTX-β) is complicated by strong eddy currents and toroidal asymmetries arising from its segmented, close-fitting conducting shell. In the earlier experiment LTX, these three-dimensional (3D) conductor effects significantly distorted diagnostic signals and challenged conventional axisymmetric reconstruction methods. In this work, we demonstrate that accurate plasma equilibria can be recovered on LTX-β by incorporating a small number of dominant eddy current modes derived from realistic conductor models. Using the open-source $\tt{TokaMaker}$ Grad–Shafranov solver, we reconstruct equilibria across a systematically selected set of LTX-β discharges and validate them against the legacy $\tt{PSI-Tri}$ hybrid 2D-3D code. Our results show that fully 2D $\tt{TokaMaker}$ reconstructions achieve significantly improved agreement with flux loop and Mirnov probe measurements, reducing total chi-squared fitting errors, especially during startup. Finally, we develop new hybrid 2D-3D $\tt{TokaMaker}$ reconstructions by integrating the $\tt{ThinCurr}$ 3D eddy current model, which we optimize for significant further reduction of chi-squared in most scenarios. These findings underscore the importance of realistic wall-current modeling in short-pulse tokamaks, and establish a physics-based reconstruction framework that is extensible to devices with complex passive structures and 3D wall interactions.

Grad–Shafranov solver↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of muon antineutrino charged current - 0 meson scattering, using the NOvA Near Detector

Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, poorly constrained, particularly regarding the role of multi-nucleon processes such as 2-particle 2-hole (2p2h) interactions. The associated crosssection systematic uncertainties represent a significant challenge for precision oscillation measurements, especially for the next generation of neutrino experiments such as DUNE. We present a new measurement of the muon antineutrino charged-current cross section without mesons in the final state, using the high-statistics data set of the NOvA Near Detector. The analysis employs a cut-based selection enhanced by machine learning techniques to isolate a high-purity sample dominated by quasielastic (QE) and 2p2h interactions. We present the cross section as a function of the kinetic energy and scattering angle of the outgoing muon. We also present measurements of more model-dependent kinematic variables such as the neutrino energy and momentum transfer, to better probe the underlying nuclear physics. The results are compared against various neutrino event generators to test the robustness of current interaction models.

Vockerodt, Kevin John [Ohio State U.; Queen Mary, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards Universal Non-Dimensional Characterization of the Oscillatory Dynamics of Wind Turbine Rotors of Multiple Sizes

One concern in the field of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWTs) is what control strategies are needed to handle gust pulses in the wind to prevent extreme oscillations of the blades to reduce fatigue stress, prevent blade rupture, and extend the turbine’s operational life. In order to design innovative control strategies to modify the blade’s oscillatory response, it is crucial to establish the fundamental vibrational behavior of the blades when excited by gust pulses of different frequencies and amplitudes present in the fluctuating wind inflow. In a series of previous works, the authors presented a novel Reduced-Order Characterization (ROC) technique that provided an energy-based characterization of the fundamental modes of oscillation of wind turbine rotors when excited by combinations of wind gust pulses of different frequencies and amplitudes. The main focus of the present work is to extend these original notions of energy-based ROC to a universal technique expressed in terms of non-dimensional quantities that could be applied to turbines of any size, operating in any set of wind conditions, as long as they share geometrical and material similarity. The ROC technique provides a simple formula that is capable of predicting the dominant vibrational modes of a blade with sufficient precision to be useful in the determination of a control decision that can be computed in real time, an aspect of fundamental importance in dealing with rapid fluctuations in wind conditions.

Yates, North (ORCID:000900052204261X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Macroscopic trends of neoclassical tearing stability in high-field H-mode tokamak pilot plants

The neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) stability metric—minimum marginally stable island width $w$$^{*}_{m}$—was compared across 14651 inductive high-field tokamak pilot plant equilibria. Larger devices with reduced elongation and/or increased minor radius demonstrated an order-of-magnitude increase in $w$$^{*}_{m}$, primarily due to a reduction in bootstrap drive. This work is part of an ongoing effort to ensure passive NTM-stability in the ARC tokamak, in which the technology to achieve active tearing-suppression with localised electron cyclotron current drive does not yet exist. The equilibrium scenarios in the database were Monte Carlo generated and normalised to the same >400MW fusion power, minimum pressure scenario at a range of plasma currents, before tearing analysis using the modified Rutherford equation was applied for all resonant poloidal and toroidal m, n modes up to n = 4. Single-helicity toroidal Δ' calculations in resistive DCON set the minimum marginally stable island width, and a simple modal scaling proportional to –m 2 n –1 was identified for high-m Δ' values. The dominant correlates of $w$$^{*}_{m}$ and Δ' across the database were analysed using interpretable machine learning techniques.

NTM seeding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visualizing the strong field–induced molecular breakup of C 60 via x-ray diffraction

Laser-driven dynamics in polyatomic molecules poses a complex many-body problem. Understanding intense light-matter interaction is crucial for steering intramolecular quantum dynamical processes. Here, we record time-resolved x-ray diffraction images of C 60 molecules during and after their interaction with intense near-infrared fields, giving direct access to structural changes of the molecules and their fragmentation in real time. Tuning the intensity of the excitation pulses, we uncover a transition from a weak-field regime of excited but stable molecules to a high-field regime dominated by Coulomb explosion. In the transition region, the molecules expand by up to 50% of their initial size within just 140 fs, with major fragmentation only setting in afterward. This work demonstrates that x-ray diffractive imaging is capable of retrieving time-resolved structural information of large molecules reshaped by intense laser fields. Laser-driven fragmentation is a first step toward observing molecular processes modified by laser fields of increasing intensity.

Schnorr, Kirsten [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villi↗