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Cumulative Noise Metric Design Considerations for the Nasa Quesst Community Test Campaign With the X-59 Aircraft
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to collect X-59 aircraft dose-response data to inform international regulators in their efforts to establish acceptable noise standards to replace the current ban on overland supersonic commercial flight. For this upcoming community test campaign, the sound level from a supersonic overflight of the X-59 constitutes a single-event dose, and an end-of-day survey after multiple flight events constitutes a cumulative response. This study considers how X-59 community tests could be designed to explore the relationship between multiple single events and cumulative annoyance response. Presently, a day-night level summation of single-event doses formulates the cumulative dose; however, a generalization method may improve the understanding of the linkage between multiple single events and cumulative response. This work utilizes an analysis method that employs a parameter to vary the cumulative dose metric such that it can represent the loudest single event, remain as the day-night level summation, or be more responsive to the number of events. The analysis is demonstrated on simulated dose-response datasets derived from previous NASA field studies and from expectations of X-59 community tests. Results demonstrate that certain dose designs are more efficient than others in determining the analysis parameter.
Cumulative Noise Metric Design Considerations for the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign With the X-59 Aircraft
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to collect X-59 aircraft dose-response data to inform international regulators in their efforts to establish acceptable noise standards to replace the current ban on overland supersonic commercial flight. For this upcoming community test campaign, the sound level from a supersonic overflight of the X-59 constitutes a single-event dose, and an end-of-day survey after multiple flight events constitutes a cumulative response. This study considers how X-59 community tests could be designed to explore the relationship between multiple single events and cumulative annoyance response. Presently, a day-night level summation of single-event doses formulates the cumulative dose; however, a generalization method may improve the understanding of the linkage between multiple single events and cumulative response. This work utilizes an analysis method that employs a parameter to vary the cumulative dose metric such that it can represent the loudest single event, remain as the day-night level summation, or be more responsive to the number of events. The analysis is demonstrated on simulated dose-response datasets derived from previous NASA field studies and from expectations of X-59 community tests. Results demonstrate that certain dose designs are more efficient than others in determining the analysis parameter.
Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data
This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.
Statistical Modeling of Quiet Sonic Boom Community Response Survey Data
The existing ban on commercial supersonic flight overland is largely due to the effects of loud and startling sonic booms on communities. NASA is planning a nationwide campaign of community response surveys using the experimental X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (X-59 QueSST) aircraft to understand how communities perceive the sounds of quiet supersonic flight. The X-59 community response survey data will be presented to noise regulators, who are considering replacing the ban with a noise-based certification limit so quiet supersonic vehicles can fly over land. In this document, we use pilot community response survey data to explore and assess multiple approaches to statistically model the dose-response relationship between single-event sonic boom sound exposure and human annoyance. The models have two primary functions—estimating two types of quantities that support setting regulations and experimental design of future surveys.
Modeling Cell Survival Fraction and Other Dose-Response Relationships for Immunodeficient C.B-17 SCID Mice Exposed to 320-kV X Rays
US homeland security concerns related to potential misuse of γ-ray-emitting radiation sources employed in radiobiological research (eg, shielded cesium-137 irradiators) led to recommendations by the National Research Council to conduct studies into possibly replacing γ-ray irradiators used in research involving small rodent and other models with X-ray instruments. A limiting factor is suitability of the X-ray photon energy spectra. The objective of our research was to demonstrate the suitability of the radiation energy spectrum of 320-kV X rays after filtration (HVL = 4 mm Cu) for in-vivo cytotoxicity studies in immunodeficient C.B-17 SCID mice. By using a previously-published Hazard Function (HF) model to characterize dose-response relationships for in vivo bone marrow and spleen cell survival fractions and also to characterize the acute lethality risk (hematopoietic syndrome mode) we demonstrate that the filtered 320-kV X-ray beam appears suitable for such studies. A key finding for C.B-17 SCID mice when compared to results previously obtained for immunocompetent C.B-17 mice is that the immunodeficient mice appear to be more radioresistant, implicating a possible role of the immune system capacity in radiosensitivity of mammals.
A Stochastic Intracellular Model of Anthrax Infection With Spore Germination Heterogeneity
We present a stochastic mathematical model of the intracellular infection dynamics of Bacillus anthracis in macrophages. Following inhalation of B. anthracis spores, these are ingested by alveolar phagocytes. Ingested spores then begin to germinate and divide intracellularly. This can lead to the eventual death of the host cell and the extracellular release of bacterial progeny. Some macrophages successfully eliminate the intracellular bacteria and will recover. Here, a stochastic birth-and-death process with catastrophe is proposed, which includes the mechanism of spore germination and maturation of B. anthracis . The resulting model is used to explore the potential for heterogeneity in the spore germination rate, with the consideration of two extreme cases for the rate distribution: continuous Gaussian and discrete Bernoulli. We make use of approximate Bayesian computation to calibrate our model using experimental measurements from in vitro infection of murine peritoneal macrophages with spores of the Sterne 34F2 strain of B. anthracis . The calibrated stochastic model allows us to compute the probability of rupture, mean time to rupture, and rupture size distribution, of a macrophage that has been infected with one spore. We also obtain the mean spore and bacterial loads over time for a population of cells, each assumed to be initially infected with a single spore. Our results support the existence of significant heterogeneity in the germination rate, with a subset of spores expected to germinate much later than the majority. Furthermore, in agreement with experimental evidence, our results suggest that most of the spores taken up by macrophages are likely to be eliminated by the host cell, but a few germinated spores may survive phagocytosis and lead to the death of the infected cell. Finally, we discuss how this stochastic modelling approach, together with dose-response data, allows us to quantify and predict individual infection risk following exposure.
Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study
Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.
Erratum to: DR, Owen; PS, Boonstra; BL, Viglianti; J, Balter; MJ, Schipper; W, Jackson; I El, Naqa; S, Jolly; R Ten, Haken; FM, Kong; MM, Matuszak. Modeling Patient-Specific Dose-Function Response Using Perfusion SPECT/CT for Enhanced Characterization of Personalized Functional Changes. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2018;102(4):1265–1275
No abstract prepared.
Surrogate modeling for Z-Machine Shielding Dose Response
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PolyFit: A C++ code for Polynomial Curve Fit with Calculation of Error Bars
In radiobiology, many dose-response results are modeled using the so-called linear-quadratic (LQ)model, which means that results are modeled as a function of dose Das 𝑅(𝐷)=𝛽0+𝛽1𝐷+𝛽2𝐷2. The coefficients 𝛽0, 𝛽1and 𝛽2are obtained from fitting a series of data points (𝑥𝑖, 𝑦𝑖), which is usually done using a least-square method. The LQ and more generally the polynomial fit capability is implemented in many software that analyzes data. However, there are some instances where the fitting needs to be done programmatically. Furthermore, depending on the software used, some features may not be implemented. In this mini-review, I discuss the basis of polynomial fitting, including the calculation of errors on the coefficients and results, use of weighting and fixing the intercept value (the coefficient 𝛽0). A simple C++ code to perform the polynomial curve fitting is also provided. This code should be useful not only in radiobiology but in other fields of science as well.
PolyFit: A C++ code for Polynomial Curve Fit with Calculation of Error Bars
In radiobiology, many dose-response results are modeled using the so-called linear-quadratic(LQ)model, which means that results are modeled as a function of dose Das 𝑅(𝐷)=𝛽0+𝛽1𝐷+𝛽2𝐷2. The coefficients 𝛽0, 𝛽1and 𝛽2are obtained from fitting a series of data points (𝑥𝑖,𝑦𝑖), which is usually done using a least-square method. The LQ and more generally the polynomial fit capability is implemented in many software that analyzes data. However, it is often convenient to do the fitting programmatically, especially when a large number of datasets should be analyzed. Furthermore, depending on the software used, some features may not be implemented. In this mini-review, I discuss the basis of polynomial fitting, including the calculation of errors on the coefficients and results, use of weighting and fixing the intercept value (the coefficient 𝛽0). A simple C++ code to perform the polynomial curve fitting is also provided. This code should be useful not only in radiobiology but in other fields of science as well.
Extrapolation of Efficacy from Adults to Pediatric Patients of Drugs for Treatment of Partial Onset Seizures: A Regulatory Perspective
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded that the efficacy of drugs approved for the treatment of partial onset seizures (POS) in adults can be extrapolated to pediatric patients 1 month of age and above and that independent efficacy trials in this pediatric population are no longer needed. This paper focuses on the dosing, pharmacokinetic (PK), exposure‐response, and clinical information that were leveraged from the approved drugs for the treatment of POS to conduct analyses that supported extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients. Clinical data from trials for eight drugs (levetiracetam, oxcarbazepine, topiramate, lamotrigine, gabapentin, perampanel, tiagabine, and vigabatrin) approved in both adults and pediatric patients for the treatment of POS were analyzed. Comparisons of exposures at approved doses, placebo response, and model‐based exposure‐response relationships were performed. Based on disease similarity, similar response to intervention, and similar exposure‐response relationships in adults and pediatric patients, it was concluded that extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric patients aged 1 month and above is acceptable. PK analysis to determine pediatric dose and regimens that provide drug exposure similar to that known to be effective in adult patients with POS will be required, along with long‐term open‐label safety data in pediatric patients.
Refinement of a limit cycle oscillator model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker
In 1990, Kronauer proposed a mathematical model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker. Although this model predicted many general features of the response of the human circadian pacemaker to light exposure, additional data now available enable us to refine the original model. We first refined the original model by incorporating the results of a dose response curve to light into the model's predicted relationship between light intensity and the strength of the drive onto the pacemaker. Data from three bright light phase resetting experiments were then used to refine the amplitude recovery characteristics of the model. Finally, the model was tested and further refined using data from an extensive phase resetting experiment in which a 3-cycle bright light stimulus was presented against a background of dim light. In order to describe the results of the four resetting experiments, the following major refinements to the original model were necessary: (i) the relationship between light intensity (I) and drive onto the pacemaker was reduced from I1/3 to I0.23 for light levels between 150 and 10,000 lux; (ii) the van der Pol oscillator from the original model was replaced with a higher-order limit cycle oscillator so that amplitude recovery is slower near the singularity and faster near the limit cycle; (iii) a direct effect of light on circadian period (tau x) was incorporated into the model such that as I increases, tau x decreases, which is in accordance with "Aschoff's rule". This refined model generates the following testable predictions: it should be difficult to enhance normal circadian amplitude via bright light; near the critical point of a type 0 phase response curve (PRC) the slope should be steeper than it is in a type 1 PRC; and circadian period measured during forced desynchrony should be directly affected by ambient light intensity.
Investigation of Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions and performance of a rapid diagnostic test for identifying asymptomatic malaria infection in northern Ethiopia, 2015
Background: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used for malaria diagnosis of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Although RDTs are a reliable and practical diagnostic tool, the sensitivity of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based RDTs can be reduced if pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 (pfhrp2/3) gene deletions exist in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite population. This study evaluated dried blood spot (DBS) samples collected from a national household survey to investigate the presence of pfhrp2/3 deletions and the performance of the RDT used in the cross-sectional survey in a low transmission setting. Methods: The 2015 Ethiopia Malaria Indicator Survey tested household members by RDT and collected DBS samples. DBS (n = 2648) from three regions in northern Ethiopia were tested by multiplex bead-based antigen detection assay after completion of the survey. The multiplex assay detected pan-Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), pAldolase, and HRP2 antigens in samples. Samples suspected for pfhrp2/3 gene deletions (pLDH and/or pAldolase positive but low or absent HRP2) were further investigated by molecular assays for gene deletions. Antigen results were also compared to each individual’s RDT results. Dose–response logistic regression models were fit to estimate RDT level of detection (LOD) antigen concentrations at which 50, 75, 90, and 95% of the RDTs returned a positive result during this survey. Results: Out of 2,648 samples assayed, 29 were positive for pLDH or pAldolase antigens but low or absent for HRP2 signal, and 15 of these samples (51.7%) were successfully genotyped for pfhrp2/3. Of these 15 P. falciparum infections, eight showed single deletions in pfhrp3, one showed a single pfhrp2 deletion, and six were pfhrp2/3 double-deletions. Six pfhrp2 deletions were observed in Tigray and one in Amhara. Twenty-five were positive for HRP2 by the survey RDT while the more sensitive bead assay detected 30 HRP2-positive samples. A lower concentration of HRP2 antigen generated a positive test result by RDT compared to pLDH (95% LOD: 16.9 ng/mL vs. 319.2 ng/mL, respectively). Conclusions: There is evidence of dual pfhrp2/3 gene deletions in the Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia in 2015. As the prevalence of malaria was very low (< 2%), it is difficult to make strong conclusions on RDT performance, but these results challenge the utility of biomarkers in household surveys in very low transmission settings.
Irradiation with molecular hydrogen as an accelerated total dose hardness assurance test method for bipolar linear circuits
High dose rate irradiation with hydrogen stress is proposed as an accelerated total dose test method for bipolar linear circuits. The method is validated across process and circuit technologies with five parts that are commonly used in space: a comparator (LM193 from National Semi-conductor), a voltage regulator (HSYE-117 RH from Intersil), a voltage reference (LT1019 from Linear Technology), a JFET input op amp (OP42 from Analog Devices) and a temperature transducer (AD590 from Analog Devices). The testing technique could rapidly establish an upper bound to the low dose rate response of parts in space and help with the part selection process in the design phase of a mission. The technology dependence and the viability of this technique are qualitatively explored using a physical model describing the dose rate response and the effect of hydrogen in bipolar technologies. The model uses four core processes: 1) space charge effects, 2) free electron/hole pair recombination, hole-hydrogen defect reactions in the oxides and 4) proton depassivation of dangling bonds at the Si/SiO2 interface. Radiation hardness assurance implications are discussed.
Modeling Respiratory Toxicity of Authentic Lunar Dust
The lunar expeditions of the Apollo operations from the 60 s and early 70 s have generated awareness about lunar dust exposures and their implication towards future lunar explorations. Critical analyses on the reports from the Apollo crew members suggest that lunar dust is a mild respiratory and ocular irritant. Currently, NASA s space toxicology group is functioning with the Lunar Airborne Dust Toxicity Assessment Group (LADTAG) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) to investigate and examine toxic effects to the respiratory system of rats in order to establish permissible exposure levels (PELs) for human exposure to lunar dust. In collaboration with the space toxicology group, LADTAG and NIOSH the goal of the present research is to analyze dose-response curves from rat exposures seven and twenty-eight days after intrapharyngeal instillations, and model the response using BenchMark Dose Software (BMDS) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Via this analysis, the relative toxicities of three types of Apollo 14 lunar dust samples and two control dust samples, titanium dioxide (TiO2) and quartz will be determined. This will be executed for several toxicity endpoints such as cell counts and biochemical markers in bronchoaveolar lavage fluid (BALF) harvested from the rats.
The calculation of radial dose from heavy ions: predictions of biological action cross sections
The track structure model of heavy ion cross sections was developed by Katz and co-workers in the 1960s. In this model the action cross section is evaluated by mapping the dose-response of a detector to gamma rays (modeled from biological target theory) onto the radial dose distribution from delta rays about the path of the ion. This is taken to yield the radial distribution of probability for a "hit" (an interaction leading to an observable end-point). Radial integration of the probability yields the cross section. When different response from ions of different Z having the same stopping power is observed this model may be indicated. Since the 1960s there have been several developments in the computation of the radial dose distribution, in the measurement of these distributions, and in new radiobiological data against which to test the model. The earliest model, by Butts and Katz made use of simplified delta ray distribution functions, of simplified electron range-energy relations, and neglected angular distributions. Nevertheless it made possible the calculation of cross sections for the inactivation of enzymes and viruses, and allowed extension to tracks in nuclear emulsions and other detectors and to biological cells. It set the pattern for models of observable effects in the matter through which the ion passed. Here we outline subsequent calculations of radial dose which make use of improved knowledge of the electron emission spectrum, the electron range-energy relation, the angular distribution, and some considerations of molecular excitation, of particular interest both close to the path of the ion and the outer limits of electron penetration. These are applied to the modeling of action cross sections for the inactivation of several strains of E-coli and B. subtilis spores where extensive measurements in the "thin-down" region have been made with heavy ion beams. Such calculations serve to test the radial dose calculations at the outer limit of electron penetration. We lack data from which to test these calculations in regions close to the path of the ion aside from our earliest work on latent tracks in plastics, though it appears that the criterion then suggested for the threshold of track formation, of a minimal dose at a minimal distance (of about 20 angstroms, in plastics), remains valid.