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At least 55 records · Page 3

The role of driver head pose dynamics and instantaneous driving in safety critical events: Application of computer vision in naturalistic driving

This paper investigates the role of driver behavior especially head pose dynamics in safety–critical events (SCEs). Using a large dataset collected in a naturalistic driving study, this paper analyzes the head pose dynamics and driving behavior in moments leading up to crashes or near-crashes. The study uses advanced computer vision and mixed logit modeling techniques to identify patterns and relationships between drivers’ head pose dynamics and crash involvement. The results suggest that driver-head pose dynamics, especially poses that indicate distraction and movement volatility, are important factors that can contribute to undesirable safety outcomes. Marginal effects show that angular deviation for head pose dynamics indicated by yaw, pitch and roll increase the likelihood of crash intensity by 4.56%, 4.92% and 8.26% respectively. Furthermore, traffic flow and lane changing also contribute to increase in likelihood of crash intensity. These findings provide new insights into pre-crash factors, especially human factors and safety–critical events. The study highlights the importance of considering human factors in designing driver assistance systems and developing safer vehicles. This research contributes by examining naturalistic driving data at the microscopic level with early detection of behaviors that lead to SCEs and provides a basis for future research on automation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The drivers and predictability of wildfire re-burns in the western United States (US)

Evidence is mounting that the effectiveness of using prescribed burns as a management tactic may be diminishing due to the higher incidence of wildfire re-burns. The development of predictive models of re-burns is thus essential to better understand their primary drivers so that forest management practices can be updated to account for these events. First, we assess the potential for human activity as a driver of re-burns by evaluating re-burn trends both within and outside of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western US. Next, we investigate the predictability of re-burns through the application of both random forest and the explanatory machine learning non-negative matrix factorization using k-means clustering (NMFk) algorithms to predict re-burn occurrence over California based on a number of climate factors. Our findings indicate that while most states showed increasing trends within the WUI when trends were conducted over longer moving windows (e.g. 20 years), California was the only state where the rate of increase was consistently higher in the WUI, indicating a stronger potential for human activity as a driver in that location. Furthermore, we find model performance was found to be robust over most of California (Testing F1 scores = 0.688), although results were highly variable based on EPA level III Ecoregion (F1 scores = 0.0–0.778). Insights provided from this study will lead to a better understanding of climate and human activity drivers of re-burns and how these vary at broad spatial scales so that improvements in forest management practices can be tuned according to the level of change that is expected for a given region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pulsed-Power Innovations for Next-Generation, High-Current Drivers

There are proposals to build larger high-current drivers to be used for high-energy-density physics (HEDP), inertial confinement fusion (ICF), radiation effects testing, and basic science. Drivers significantly larger than the Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA, encounter increasing difficulties in water power flow, insulator performance, and vacuum power flow. The physics requirements of imploding loads limit a designer’s flexibility in choosing machine parameters, such as current rise time, driving impedance, and total inductance. This article enumerates these physics constraints and shows how they impact driver design. Here, we conclude that advances in pulsed-power capabilities are needed to control risk and to build a cost-effective driver at peak currents of ~60 MA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Driver Identification Dataset

The ORNL Driver Identification Dataset was created to collect and analyze driving behavior data from 50 different drivers. Each driver operated a 2014 Kenworth T270 Class 6 truck around Fort Collins, Colorado while various data sources recorded their driving behavior and vehicle performance. The dataset includes CANbus (Controller Area Network) data, GPS data, inertial measurement data, and biometric data from a heart rate monitor. A cyberattack was executed during each drive, which caused multiple dashboard warning lights to illuminate and set the tachometer and speedometer to zero, regardless of actual speed. The attack was stopped either after one minute or if the driver pulled over. By downloading the dataset, you agree to the following: 1) I will not use or disclose the data for any purpose other than Research as that term is defined in 10 CFR 745.102. 2) I will not, under any circumstances, request or accept private or linking identifiers for the data used. 3) I will not attempt to determine the identity of the individuals associated with the data. 4) I will use appropriate safeguards to prevent the use or disclose of the data for any purpose other than Research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Hydropower Value Drivers

Conventional hydro resources generate the majority of their value by providing energy under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing ancillary services and capacity increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. Pumped storage hydropower resources generate the majority of their value by providing capacity under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing energy increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. The total value of conventional hydropower generally decreases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs; this is largely due to the associated decrease in average energy prices. The total value of pumped storage generally increases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs, largely due to opportunities to operate in pumping mode when energy prices are low or even negative. Energy storage representation must be enhanced to ensure that models accurately capture system value streams for these resources. Current power system models have a limited ability to capture the price dynamics of ancillary services, and it is still challenging to assess the role and magnitude of ancillary service value streams in future systems. Power systems are currently in a state of rapid and dramatic evolution due to a number of different factors, including the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This evolution will change the way power systems are fundamentally planned and operated. Some of these changes may be incremental, while others may be more significant, but the result will likely be parallel evolution in the definition and requirement of different grid services and therefore a subsequent shift in their relative values. This report presents a framework developed to identify such system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources. This value drivers framework (VDF) encompasses five core analytical steps: 1. Identify potential drivers and develop scenarios, 2. Execute production cost models, 3. Calibrate prices, 4. Optimize hydropower operations, and 5. Quantify value drivers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Nuclear imaging to diagnose and correct target-driver registration at high-repetition-rate for improved reactor efficiency

Inertial Confinement Fusion produces energy from a burning plasma lasting a fraction of a nanosecond. Power plant designs based on Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) will need to ignite targets 1-10 times a second, fired as projectiles into a chamber and delivering the driver to the target location. Driver asymmetry is known to impact ICF experiments at gain near unity and remains a candidate for primary yield degradation, and therefore fusion power plant energy output, for high-gain target designs. For a Fusion Power Plant (FPP), continuous and real-time monitoring of target performance provides an opportunity to stabilize or correct the target-driver registration. This requires x-ray and neutron imaging with a large field-of-view, sufficiently high resolution, fast analysis and to subtend a minimal solid angle. We introduce design criteria for such an imaging system that uses a coded aperture and time-gated, lens-coupled scintillators as a viable solution and outline the research steps required to field such a system. Integrating the imaging system into an IFE power plant as part of an active feedback loop could increase average power output by reducing the failure rate due to mis-aligned drivers with respect to the target.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Driver Identification Midyear Report

First, we create a profile for each authorized driver based on their existing driving data. We then train a machine learning model on the driving data from this profile, yielding an individualized model for each driver. Finally during a drive, we pass the Controller Area Network (CAN) data to the model and authen ticate the driver’s identity in real-time. This verification or lack thereof could be used to alert supervisors of threats to their drivers or transported materials. Deviations from their normal driving behavior could indicate high-risk situations, medical events, or even insider threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Assessing the Impact of Mirror Technology on Driver Perception and Safety: Traditional vs. Camera-Based Systems

Camera-based mirror systems (CBMS) are being adopted by commercial fleets based on the potential improvements to operational efficiency through improved aerodynamics, resulting in better fuel economy, improved maneuverability, and the potential improvement for overall safety. Until CBMS are widely adopted it will be expected that drivers will be required to adapt to both conventional glass mirrors and CBMS which could have potential impact on the safety and performance of the driver when moving between vehicles with and without CBMS. To understand the potential impact to driver perception and safety, along with other human factors related to CBMS, laboratory testing was performed to understand the impact of CBMS and conventional glass mirrors. Drivers were subjected to various, nominal driving scenarios using a truck equipped with conventional glass mirrors, CBMS, and both glass mirrors and CBMS, to observe the differences in metrics such as head and eye movement, reaction time, and perception of distance. The finds from this study will serve as the baseline measurements for future research regarding off-nominal driving scenarios and hardware failures of CBMS, as well as inform potential future policy regarding CBMS for the use in commercial vehicles in lieu of conventional glass mirrors.

Siekmann, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000284653935)↗

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of automobile-driver describing function from highway tests using the double steering wheel

The automobile-driver describing function for lateral position control was estimated for three subjects from frequency response analysis of straight road test results. The measurement procedure employed an instrumented full size sedan with known steering response characteristics, and equipped with a lateral lane position measuring device based on video detection of white stripe lane markings. Forcing functions were inserted through a servo driven double steering wheel coupling the driver to the steering system proper. Random appearing, Gaussian, and transient time functions were used. The quasi-linear models fitted to the random appearing input frequency response characterized the driver as compensating for lateral position error in a proportional, derivative, and integral manner. Similar parameters were fitted to the Gabor transformed frequency response of the driver to transient functions. A fourth term corresponding to response to lateral acceleration was determined by matching the time response histories of the model to the experimental results. The time histories show evidence of pulse-like nonlinear behavior during extended response to step transients which appear as high frequency remnant power.

Delp, P.↗

Development of an annular arc accelerator shock tube driver

An annular arc accelerator (ANAA) shock tube driver has been developed that deposits the energy of an arc discharge into a flowing gas, which then expands and cools without any delay for the opening of a diaphragm. A simplified one-dimensional flow analysis of the ANAA shock tube has been performed, which indicates that shock velocities greater than 40 km/sec may be obtained using a 300-kJ capacitor bank. The ANAA driver consists of a high-pressure driver, an expansion section, and an electrode section. In operation, the cold gas driver is pressurized until the diaphragm bursts, sending a pressure front down the expansion tube to the arc section. When the accelerated flow arrives at the electrode section, a 100-capacitor, 300-kJ capacitor bank is discharged either by breaking an insulating diaphragm between the electrodes or by the triggering of a series of external switches. Shock velocities of 28 km/sec have been obtained, and modifications are described that are expected to improve performance.

Leibowitz, L. P.↗

Dynamic Discharge Arc Driver

A computer program using nonlinear RLC circuit analysis was developed to accurately model the electrical discharge performance of the Ames 1-MJ energy storage and arc-driver system. Solutions of circuit parameters are compared with experimental circuit data and related to shock speed measurements. Computer analysis led to the concept of a Dynamic Discharge Arc Driver (DDAD) capable of increasing the range of operation of shock-driven facilities. Utilization of mass addition of the driver gas offers a unique means of improving driver performance. Mass addition acts to increase the arc resistance, which results in better electrical circuit damping with more efficient Joule heating, producing stronger shock waves. Preliminary tests resulted in an increase in shock Mach number from 34 to 39 in air at an initial pressure of 2.5 torr.

Dannenberg, R. E.↗

Incident shock-wave characteristics in air, argon, carbon dioxide, and helium in a shock tube with unheated helium driver

Incident shock-wave velocities were measured in the Langley 6-inch expansion tube, operated as a shock tube, with air, argon, carbon dioxide, and helium as test gases. Unheated helium was used as the driver gas and most data were obtained at pressures of approximately 34 and 54 MN/sq m. A range of pressure ratio across the diaphragm was obtained by varying the quiescent test-gas pressure, for a given driver pressure, from 0.0276 to 34.5 kN/sq m. Single- and double-diaphragm modes of operation were employed and diaphragms of various materials tested. Shock velocity was determined from microwave interferometer measurements, response of pressure transducers positioned along interferometer measurements, response of pressure transducers positioned along the driven section (time-of-arrival gages), and to a lesser extent, measured tube-wall pressure. Velocities obtained from these methods are compared and limitations of the methods discussed. The present results are compared with theory and the effects of diaphragm mode (single or double diaphragm), diaphragm material, heating of the driver gas upon pressurization of the driver section, diaphragm opening time, interface mixing, and two-dimensional (nonplanar) flow are discussed.

Miller, C. G., III↗

Mass driver retrievals of earth-approaching asteroids

Mass driver tugs can be designed to move Apollo and Amor asteroids at opportunities of low velocity increment to the vicinity of the earth. The cost of transferring asteroids through a velocity interval of 3 km/sec by mass driver is about 16 cents per kilogram amortized over 10 years, about ten times less than that required to retrieve lunar resources during the early phases of a program of space manufacturing. About 22 per cent of a 200-meter diameter asteroid could be transferred to high earth orbit by an automated 100 megawatt solar-powered mass driver in a period of five years for a cost of approximately $1 billion. Estimates of the total investment of a space manufacturing program could be reduced twofold by using asteroidal instead of lunar resources; such a program could begin several years sooner with minimal concurrent development if asteroidal search programs and mass driver development are immediately accelerated.

Oleary, B.↗

Mass drivers. 3: Engineering

This paper is the last of a series of three by the Mass-Driver Group of the 1977 Ames Summer Study. It develops the engineering principles required to implement the basic mass-driver design defined in paper I and as presented previously in the literature. Optimum component mass trade-offs are derived from a set of four input parameters, and the program used to design a lunar launcher. The mass optimization procedure is then incorporated into a more comprehensive mission optimization program called OPT-4, which evaluates an optimized mass-driver reaction engine and its performance in a range of specified missions. Finally, this paper discusses, to the extent that time permitted, certain peripheral problems: heating effects in buckets due to magnetic field ripple; an approximate derivation of guide force profiles; the mechanics of inserting and releasing payloads; the reaction mass orbits; and a proposed research and development plan for implementing mass drivers. This paper also considers further optimization that depends on advances in component technology beyond the present state. It is concluded that significant advantage can be gained in the case of small reaction engines with high emission velocity by developing lightweight packaging technology for silicon-controlled rectifiers (SCR's).

William H. Arnold↗

Construction and testing of the 2.5m mass driver

Presented are the designs used in the construction of the 2.5 m mass driver and the results of the initial testing program. The mass driver consists of equal length sections of acceleration and deceleration each containing 59 drive coils of 13.1 cm caliber. Intermediate energy storage is provided by sector capacitors which are recharged every half cycle by an external power source. The drive coils are individually energized through SCR's with timing supplied by position sensing optical detectors. The drive consists of two phases which operate in quadrature. The initial bucket to be propelled through the mass driver contains two coils of aluminum wire chilled to liquid nitrogen temperatures to momentarily sustain superconducting field intensities. Magnetic flight is generated by eddy current repulsion from six copper guide strips lining the mass driver. Nominal acceleration is 5000 m/sec per sec giving a maximum bucket velocity of 112 m/s.

Snow, W. R.↗