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At least 55 records · Page 3

Development of a Drought and Yield Assessment System in Kenya

Dependence on rainfed agriculture in a highly variable climate, renders crop and livestock production vulnerable to impacts of drought in Kenya. Stakeholders in the region have highlighted the need for timely and actionable detailed early warning information on drought and its implication on crop productivity. Here we apply the Regional Hydrological Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) to estimate current and future drought conditions onset, severity, recovery, and duration) and expected productivity outlooks.

Ellenburg, Walter Lee, II↗

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated -EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

Monitoring Trends in Air Quality During a Drought: Case Study to Improve Public Health Response to Drought Threats

Drought has been an area of distinct concern in the Pacific Northwest since the mid-2010s. Recent studies have documented a correlation between air quality and drought in the United States, which is often observed in increased aerosols including airborne particulate matter (PM). This study partnered with the Oregon Health Authority and Washington State Department of Health to evaluate trends in air quality in the Pacific Northwest during the evolution of drought conditions using aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations collected by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. These satellite data were analyzed in conjunction with ground-based PM2.5 and PM10 data sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System’s network of ground-based monitors and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought index. Based on recommendations by local health departments, this study examined air quality trends between 2015 and 2022 in 12 counties within Oregon and Washington that reflected diversity in population density, drought exposure, rural and urban status, and data availability from EPA AQS monitors. The findings from this study provided supplemental information to the ongoing efforts by community health stakeholders to study the public health impacts of drought and support public health responses to future drought events.

Taylor West↗

The Impact of Surface Boundary Forcing on Simulation of the 1998 Summer Drought Over the US Midwest Using Factor Separation Technique

The factor separation (FS) technique has been utilized to evaluate quantitatively the impact of surface boundary forcings on simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the Midwestern part of the U.S. The four surface boundary forcings used are: (1)Sea Surface Temperature (SST), (2) soil moisture, (3) snow cover, and (4) sea ice. The Goddard Earth Observing System(GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to simulate the 1988 U.S. drought. A series of sixteen simulations are performed with climatological and real 1988 surface boundary conditions. The major single and mutual synergistic factors/impacts are analyzed. The results show that SST and soil moisture are the major single pro-drought factors. The couple synergistic effect of SST and soil moisture is the major anti-drought factor. The triple synergistic impact of SST, soil moisture, and snow cover is the strongest pro-drought impact and is, therefore, the main contributor to the generation of the drought. The impact of the snow cover and sea ice anomalies for June 1988 on the drought is significant only when combined with the SST and soil moisture anomalies.

Stein, Uri↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

The 2019-2020 Australian drought and bushfires altered the partitioning of hydrological fluxes

Though coarse in spatial resolution, the nearly all weather measurements from passive microwave sensors can help in improving the spatiotemporal coverage of optical and thermal infrared sensors for monitoring vegetation changes on the land surface. This study demonstrates the use of vegetation optical depth retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission for capturing the vegetation alterations from the recent 2019-2020 Australian bushfires and drought. The impact of vegetation disturbance s on terrestrial water budget is examined by assimilating the vegetation optical depth retrievals into a dynamic phenology model. The results demonstrate that assimilating vegetation optical depth observations lead to improved simulation of evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture states. The study also demonstrates that the vegetation changes from the 2019-2020 Australian drought and fires led to significant modifications in the partitioning of evaporative and runoff fluxes, resulting in increased bare soil evaporation, reduced transpiration, and higher runoff.

data assimilation↗

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage into a Land Surface Model: Evaluation 1 and Potential Value for Drought Monitoring in Western and Central Europe

A land surface model s ability to simulate states (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., runoff) is limited by uncertainties in meteorological forcing and parameter inputs as well as inadequacies in model physics. In this study, anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model in western and central Europe for a 7-year period, using a previously developed ensemble Kalman smoother. GRACE data assimilation led to improved runoff correlations with gauge data in 17 out of 18 hydrological basins, even in basins smaller than the effective resolution of GRACE. Improvements in root zone soil moisture were less conclusive, partly due to the shortness of the in situ data record. In addition to improving temporal correlations, GRACE data assimilation also reduced increasing trends in simulated monthly TWS and runoff associated with increasing rates of precipitation. GRACE assimilated root zone soil moisture and TWS fields exhibited significant changes in their dryness rankings relative to those without data assimilation, suggesting that GRACE data assimilation could have a substantial impact on drought monitoring. Signals of drought in GRACE TWS correlated well with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in most areas. Although they detected the same droughts during warm seasons, drought signatures in GRACE derived TWS exhibited greater persistence than those in NDVI throughout all seasons, in part due to limitations associated with the seasonality of vegetation.

Li, Bailing↗

Modeling Global Indices for Estimating Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation Cover

Non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) includes plant litter, senesced leaves, and crop residues. NPV plays an essential role in terrestrial ecosystem processes, and is an important indicator of drought severity, ecosystem disturbance, agricultural resilience, and wildfire danger. Current moderate spatial resolution multispectral satellite systems (e.g., Landsat and Sentinel-2) have only a single band in the 2000–2500 nm shortwave infrared “SWIR2” range where non-pigment biochemical constituents of NPV, including cellulose and lignin, have important spectral absorption features. Thus, these current systems have suboptimal capabilities for characterizing NPV cover. This research used simulated spectral mixtures accounting for variability among NPV and soils to evaluate globally-appropriate hyperspectral and multispectral indices for estimation of fractional NPV cover. The Continuum Interpolated NPV Depth Index (CINDI), a weighted ratio index measuring lignocellulose absorption near 2100 nm, was found to produce the lowest error in estimating NPV cover. CINDI was less sensitive to variability in soil spectra and green vegetation cover than competing indices. While CINDI was sensitive to the relative water content of soil and NPV, this sensitivity allowed for correcting error in estimated NPV cover as water content increased. CINDI bands were less capable than Dual Absorption NPV Index (DANI) bands for maintaining continuity with the heritage Landsat SWIR2 band, but combining multiple CINDI bands demonstrated adequate continuity. Three SWIR2 bands with band centers at 2038, 2108, and 2211 nm can provide superior capabilities for future moderate resolution multispectral/superspectral systems targeting NPV monitoring, including the next generation Landsat mission (Landsat Next). These bands and the associated CINDI index provide potential for global NPV monitoring using a constellation of future superspectral sensors and imaging spectrometers, with applications including improving soil management, preventing land degradation, evaluating impacts of drought, mapping ecosystem disturbance, and assessing wildfire danger.

Index optimization↗

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

Groundwater↗

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

water cycle↗

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F(M1)(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F(M2)(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F(M2)(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human influence↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction and prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted land cover maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands. These maps addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning.

Bill Curtiss↗

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction/prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted landcover change maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning. Forecasted landcover maps indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands.

William Curtiss↗

Diagnostic classification of flash drought events reveals distinct classes of forcings and impacts

Recent years have seen growing appreciation that rapidly intensifying flash droughts are significant climate hazards with major economic and ecological impacts. This has motivated efforts to inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. Here we consider the question of whether the term “flash drought” comprises multiple distinct classes of event, which would imply that understanding and forecasting flash droughts might require more than one framework. To do this, we first extend and evaluate a soil moisture volatility–based flash drought definition that we introduced in previous work and use it to inventory the onset dates and severity of flash droughts across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1979–2018. Using this inventory, we examine meteorological and land surface conditions associated with flash drought onset and recovery. These same meteorological and land surface conditions are then used to classify the flash droughts based on precursor conditions that may represent predictable drivers of the event. We find that distinct classes of flash drought can be diagnosed in the event inventory. Specifically, we describe three classes of flash drought: “dry and demanding” events for which antecedent evaporative demand is high and soil moisture is low, “evaporative” events with more modest antecedent evaporative demand and soil moisture anomalies, but positive antecedent evaporative anomalies, and “stealth” flash droughts, which are different from the other two classes in that precursor meteorological anomalies are modest relative to the other classes. The three classes exhibit somewhat different geographic and seasonal distributions. We conclude that soil moisture flash droughts are indeed a composite of distinct types of rapidly intensifying droughts, and that flash drought analyses and forecasts would benefit from approaches that recognize the existence of multiple phenomenological pathways.

Mahmoud Osman↗

Global Flash Droughts Characteristics: Onset, Duration and Extent at Watershed Scales

Addressing impacts of flash droughts (FDs) on the water-food nexus requires a understanding of FD mechanisms and drivers at the watershed level. Examining climatic drivers, dry and wet spell lengths from 1980 to 2019, we analyzed FD spatial and temporal characteristics, emphasizing areal extent, onset time, and duration. Our findings reveal substantial variations in FDs among different watersheds. Notably, watersheds in the Southern Hemisphere are witnessing expanding, faster-developing, and longer-lasting FDs, aligning with climate variations in precipitation and temperature. Additionally, at the watershed scale, the onset and duration of FDs are more influenced by the intensity (magnitude and variability) of climatic drivers than the average length of wet and dry periods. FD-extents, however, correlate with both climatic conditions and wet and dry periods, underscoring watershed connectivity. Ultimately, our results underscore the necessity for research to comprehend the interplay between FDs and watershed characteristics and how it manifests in overall water resource management.

Maheshwari Neelam↗