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Results for “dynamic inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of strength and phase transition kinetics in dynamically-compressed tin

Dynamic compression experiments in condensed matter are of interest in part because they provide opportunities to examine material response under extreme conditions; however, the inference of material behavior from dynamic experiments is challenging in the presence of phase transitions exhibiting kinetic processes. Demonstrating an approach to quantitative interpretation of such dynamic experiments, here we present a Bayesian model calibration of strength and phase transformation parameters to data drawn from pulsed power and gas gun shot experiments. The posterior predictions of the Bayesian model capture the experimental measurements and account for the various uncertainties in the experimental configurations. This holistic approach to model calibration utilizing multiple types of experimental data identifies important cross correlations among kinetics, strength, and the phase boundary. Improved insight into potential sources of current model form error is provided by comparing the differences between calibrations against different subsets of the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Breakdown front dynamics of streamer-like discharge in electron-charged polymethyl methacrylate

We present the results of an experimental study of fast breakdown in electron-charged polymethyl methacrylate. We irradiate bulk polymethyl methacrylate disks with diameters up to one meter at different implanted charge densities and measure the discharge current during the forced electrical breakdown of the material. We infer the breakdown dynamics from these current waveforms, including the velocity and time dependence of the electric field driving the breakdown, and compare these results with the physical electrical tree patterns left behind in the material. We find that the dynamics and physical characteristics of the breakdown channels in electron-irradiated solids depart from typical expectations of electrical treeing behavior in solid materials. Thus, we interpret these results as an expression of streamer discharges in dense gases motivated by the existence of trapped gases in the solid due to radiation damage. We show that the dynamics of the breakdown channels in the electron-charged solid dielectric material is well described by applying standard streamer physics to this physical system. The results show that the dynamics of breakdown channels in solid dielectric material is a promising avenue to further understand streamer discharges in different media under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Koopman Operator Methods for Global Phase Space Exploration of Equivariant Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we develop the Koopman operator theory for dynamical systems with symmetry. In particular, we investigate how the Koopman operator and eigenfunctions behave under the action of the symmetry group of the underlying dynamical system. Further, exploring the underlying symmetry, we propose an algorithm to construct a global Koopman operator from local Koopman operators. In particular, we show, by exploiting the symmetry, data from all the invariant sets are not required for constructing the global Koopman operator; that is, local knowledge of the system is enough to infer the global dynamics.

Sinha, Subhrajit↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state

The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ~104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q < 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M ⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Onset of Nucleate Boiling Prediction in a Mini Channel with the Eulerian Multiphase Flow

The prediction of boiling incipience is a critical issue for a reactor. Vapor lock causes operating instability and undesirable temperature rise, especially for small channels. This study uses the Eulerian multiphase flow boiling model to predict the onset of nucleate boiling in a millimeter scale rectangular channel. Two wall boiling models, namely the RPI (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) and the non-equilibrium sub cooled model are applied. Computational fluid dynamics is employed for this study to investigate the impact of operating conditions like liquid flow rate, operating pressure, heat flux, velocity profile, turbulence model, and inlet liquid temperature. Here, the effect of fundamental boiling parameters on the surface wall temperature and vapor volume fraction is also studied. The parameters under consideration are the bubble departure diameter, bubble departure frequency, nucleate site density, quenching time period, and interface heat transfer coefficients. A series of CFD calculations is conducted by varying the considered variables systematically in a wide range of flow conditions covering laminar, transition, and turbulent flows. The sub-component heat fluxes like the liquid convective, the vapor convective, the evaporative, and the quenching terms are monitored to infer the boiling dynamics in the transition region from the single-phase flow to the nucleate boiling zone. It is found that the CFD approach to detecting the boiling incipience point agrees reasonably with available experimental data. However, its limitations, like inaccuracy for lower flow rates and early transition to boiling flow, are also noticed due to the nature of the considered RPI model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vapor-phase self-assembly for generating thermally stable single-atom catalysts

Preparation of thermally stable metal single-atom catalysts (SACs) is a challenge in heterogeneous catalysis, especially on conventional supports that provide a weak metal-support interaction. In this work, we report that a modified support MgAl 2 O 4 can stabilize Pt single atoms by a mechanism of vapor-phase self-assembly in a high-temperature treatment (800°C, air). The experimental results on the formation mechanism and the structure are validated by DFT and ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. We infer that stable triangular K 3 O 3 structures help stabilize Pt single atoms at high temperatures in oxidizing conditions, exhibiting excellent reactivity for methane oxidation. The obtained Pt/K/MgAl 2 O 4 SAC presents excellent stability in methane oxidation after steam treatment at elevated temperatures, whereas the Pt/MgAl 2 O 4 nanocatalyst suffers from rapid deactivation due to Pt nanoparticle growth. Now this work paves the way for preparing thermally stable and highly active SACs using conventional high-surface-area supports, despite the weak metal-support interaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation

In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of Raman and pyrometry dynamic temperature measurements of shocked cyclohexane

Optical pyrometry is a well-developed, broadly applicable method to determine temperature in dynamic compression experiments. However, it measures radiation from only the skin depth of the radiant material, is highly susceptible to spurious backgrounds, and requires an often-unmeasurable free parameter—the sample dynamic emissivity. Raman spectroscopy offers a method to determine temperature directly from fundamental theory, but it is practically limited in applications to a small subset of shock experiments. In this work, we describe an experiment allowing simultaneous application of Raman and pyrometric temperature techniques to benchmark a specific instance of pyrometry. We attempted both measurements on multiple experiments and compare the successful temperature results between the separate but highly repeatable shots. Here, we find that dynamic shock temperatures inferred from Raman spectroscopy and pyrometry generally agree within the uncertainties of each measurement, although those uncertainties are larger than typical for a specially designed pyrometry experiment on a shocked metal sample.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-tailored machine learning reveals unexpected physics in dusty plasmas

Dusty plasma is a mixture of ions, electrons, and macroscopic charged particles that is commonly found in space and planetary environments. The particles interact through Coulomb forces mediated by the surrounding plasma, and as a result, the effective forces between particles can be nonconservative and nonreciprocal. Machine learning (ML) models are a promising route to learn these complex forces, yet their structure should match the underlying physical constraints to provide useful insight. Here, we demonstrate and experimentally validate an ML approach that incorporates physical intuition to infer force laws in a laboratory dusty plasma. Trained on 3D particle trajectories, the model accounts for inherent symmetries, nonidentical particles, and learns the effective nonreciprocal forces between particles with exquisite accuracy (R 2 > 0.99). We validate the model by inferring particle masses in two independent yet consistent ways. The model’s accuracy enables precise measurements of particle charge and screening length, identifying large deviations from common theoretical assumptions. Our ability to identify unknown physics from experimental data demonstrates how ML-powered approaches can guide new routes of scientific discovery in many-body systems. Furthermore, we anticipate our ML approach to be a starting point for inferring laws from dynamics in a wide range of many-body systems, from colloids to living organisms.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Omics Reveals Temporal Scales of Carbon Metabolism in Synechococcus Elongatus PCC 7942 Under Light Disturbance

Central carbon metabolism in model cyanobacteria involves multiple pathways to adapt to energy-light limitations across diel cycles. However, the success in mechanistic modeling for phenotypic prediction of the protein regulators in the metabolic state depends on capturing the vast possibilities emerging from multiple regulatory pathways in complex biological processes. Here, we developed a physics-informed machine learning approach based on energy-landscape concepts to predict regulatory proteins responding to cyclic circadian and unforeseen light perturbations in cyanobacterial metabolic networks. Our approach provides interpretable de novo models for inferring gene expression dynamics from Synechococcus elongatus over diel cycles and using redox proteome analysis to distinguish immediate light-responsive elements from circadian-regulated processes in carbon metabolism pathways. We identified distinct temporal signatures with the analysis of the redox proteome: there was an immediate shift in cysteine redox states accompanied by a limited change in protein abundance under constant illumination and after 2 hours of darkness. This discovery indicates that the generation of reductants coordinates photoinduced electron transport with redox metabolic pathways in two discernable molecular mechanisms: fast redox-based protein modifications occur immediately after the light disturbance, followed by slow transcriptional regulations across networks. This temporal regulation reveals how metabolic networks integrate rapid light responses with programmed circadian rhythms to maintain cellular homeostasis under the light-energy limitations over the diel cycle.

Biomolecular & subcellular processes↗