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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Queue Prediction at Signalized Intersections with Fusing Sensory Information and Connected Vehicles

Queue length is one of the most essential metrics for indicating traffic conditions at signalized intersections. Most existing studies mainly focus on queue length estimation in a retrieving way which cannot effectively predict the future state of vehicle in queue. This paper proposes an innovative dynamic queue prediction model in a vehicle-infrastructure cooperative way. The proposed dynamic queue predictor can customize the queue prediction using the trajectories of preceding vehicles from radar detection with varying information from loop detectors and connected vehicles (CVs). The dynamic queue prediction accuracy can be further improved with at least one present CV in the same cycle. With the accurate dynamic queue prediction, we present a case study of Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure (QEAD) to provide an online optimal vehicle trajectory considering both the signal status and preceding vehicle's future status in queue. The proposed framework and algorithms are of pragmatic significance and one of its advanced features is the ability to work under low penetration rate of CVs. The test using Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) dataset and a case study in VISSIM microscopic simulation show promising results.

Ye, Fei↗
NASA NTRS1972

A model for predicting aortic dynamic response to -G sub z impact acceleration.

A steady state dynamic response model for the radial motion of the aorta is developed from in vivo pressure-displacement and nerve stimulation experiments on canines. The model represented by a modified Van der Pol wave motion oscillator closely predicts steady state and perturbed response results. The applicability of the steady state canine aortic model to tailward acting impact forces is studied by means of the perturbed phase plane of the oscillator. The backflow through the aortic arch resulting from a specified acceleration-time profile is computed and an analysis for predicting the forced motion aortic response is presented.

Advani, S. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cellular fluidics

The natural world provides many examples of multiphase transport and reaction processes that have been optimized by evolution. These phenomena take place at multiple length and time scales and typically include gas–liquid–solid interfaces and capillary phenomena in porous media. Many biological and living systems have evolved to optimize fluidic transport. However, living things are exceptionally complex and very difficult to replicate, and human-made microfluidic devices (which are typically planar and enclosed) are highly limited for multiphase process engineering. In this paper, we introduce the concept of cellular fluidics: a platform of unit-cell-based, three-dimensional structures—enabled by emerging 3D printing methods—for the deterministic control of multiphase flow, transport and reaction processes. We show that flow in these structures can be ‘programmed’ through architected design of cell type, size and relative density. We demonstrate gas–liquid transport processes such as transpiration and absorption, using evaporative cooling and CO 2 capture as examples. We design and demonstrate preferential liquid and gas transport pathways in three-dimensional cellular fluidic devices with capillary-driven and actively pumped liquid flow, and present examples of selective metallization of pre-programmed patterns. Our results show that the design and fabrication of architected cellular materials, coupled with analytical and numerical predictions of steady-state and dynamic behaviour of multiphase interfaces, provide deterministic control of fluidic transport in three dimensions. Cellular fluidics may transform the design space for spatial and temporal control of multiphase transport and reaction processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Event-Time Embeddings via RNN to Discern Novel Event Sequences in EHRs

In highly configurable health information technology (HIT) systems, such as VistA of the Veterans Health Administration, the variations in how the system is used among different healthcare facilities and how the data are recorded can be significant. Despite the successful standardization of care efforts, some of these variations can be indicative of HIT hazards and demand further investigation. In this work, we implemented a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture to learn clinical provider order sequences and their temporal dynamics while predicting the orders' terminal state. We demonstrate model performance and provide a use case for the model discerning novel event sequences. This model is proposed to find novel event sequences in an operational environment.

Ozmen, Ozgur↗
DOE OSTI2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

A model of the human in a cognitive prediction task.

The human decision maker's behavior when predicting future states of discrete linear dynamic systems driven by zero-mean Gaussian processes is modeled. The task is on a slow enough time scale that physiological constraints are insignificant compared with cognitive limitations. The model is basically a linear regression system identifier with a limited memory and noisy observations. Experimental data are presented and compared to the model.

Rouse, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

On-Orbit Model Refinement for Controller Redesign

High performance control design for a flexible space structure is challenging since high fidelity plant models are difficult to obtain a priori. Uncertainty in the control design models typically require a very robust, low performance control design which must be tuned on-orbit to achieve the required performance. A new procedure for refining a multivariable open loop plant model based on closed-loop response data is presented. Using a minimal representation of the state space dynamics, a least squares prediction error method is employed to estimate the plant parameters. This control-relevant system identification procedure stresses the joint nature of the system identification and control design problem by seeking to obtain a model that minimizes the difference between the predicted and actual closed-loop performance. This paper presents an algorithm for iterative closed-loop system identification and controller redesign along with illustrative examples.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning plasma dynamics and robust rampdown trajectories with predict-first experiments at TCV

The rampdown phase of a tokamak pulse is difficult to simulate and often exacerbates multiple plasma instabilities. To reduce the risk of disrupting operations, we leverage advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) to combine physics with data-driven models, developing a neural state-space model (NSSM) that predicts plasma dynamics during Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV) rampdowns. The NSSM efficiently learns dynamics from a modest dataset of 311 pulses with only five pulses in a reactor-relevant high-performance regime. The NSSM is parallelized across uncertainties, and reinforcement learning (RL) is applied to design trajectories that avoid instability limits. High-performance experiments at TCV show statistically significant improvements in relevant metrics. A predict-first experiment, increasing plasma current by 20% from baseline, demonstrates the NSSM’s ability to make small extrapolations. The developed approach paves the way for designing tokamak controls with robustness to considerable uncertainty and demonstrates the relevance of SciML for fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Flowfield Comparisons from Three Navier-Stokes Solvers for an Axisymmetric Separate Flow Jet

To meet new noise reduction goals, many concepts to enhance mixing in the exhaust jets of turbofan engines are being studied. Accurate steady state flowfield predictions from state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers are needed as input to the latest noise prediction codes. The main intent of this paper was to ascertain that similar Navier-Stokes solvers run at different sites would yield comparable results for an axisymmetric two-stream nozzle case. Predictions from the WIND and the NPARC codes are compared to previously reported experimental data and results from the CRAFT Navier-Stokes solver. Similar k-epsilon turbulence models were employed in each solver, and identical computational grids were used. Agreement between experimental data and predictions from each code was generally good for mean values. All three codes underpredict the maximum value of turbulent kinetic energy. The predicted locations of the maximum turbulent kinetic energy were farther downstream than seen in the data. A grid study was conducted using the WIND code, and comments about convergence criteria and grid requirements for CFD solutions to be used as input for noise prediction computations are given. Additionally, noise predictions from the MGBK code, using the CFD results from the CRAFT code, NPARC, and WIND as input are compared to data.

Koch, L. Danielle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Matrix Completion Based State Estimation in Distribution Grids

The power distribution network is undergoing tremendous transformation due to an increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles. These changes have resulted in greater uncertainty and dynamics in the distribution grid states. Therefore, the ability to track and monitor system states has become a critical need for accurate and timely control actions. In this paper, we propose two dynamic sparsity-based state estimation approaches for distribution systems: (1) locally weighted matrix completion (LW-MC) and (2) Bayesian matrix completion with Kalman filter prediction (BMC-KF). The performance of the proposed dynamic state estimation strategies is compared with the classic/static matrix completion (static-MC) approach using the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems. Finally, results indicate that BMC-KF approach outperforms both LW-MC as well as static-MC even when 30% of the measurement data is available. Computational complexity associated with both approaches is quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploiting Machine Learning to Efficiently Predict Multidimensional Optical Spectra in Complex Environments

The excited-state dynamics of chromophores in complex environments determine a range of vital biological and energy capture processes. Time-resolved, multidimensional optical spectroscopies provide a key tool to investigate these processes. Although theory has the potential to decode these spectra in terms of the electronic and atomistic dynamics, the need for large numbers of excited-state electronic structure calculations severely limits first-principles predictions of multidimensional optical spectra for chromophores in the condensed phase. In this work, we leverage the locality of chromophore excitations to develop machine learning models to predict the excited-state energy gap of chromophores in complex environments for efficiently constructing linear and multidimensional optical spectra. By analyzing the performance of these models, which span a hierarchy of physical approximations, across a range of chromophore–environment interaction strengths, we provide strategies for the construction of machine learning models that greatly accelerate the calculation of multidimensional optical spectra from first principles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Thrust Augmentation with Mixer/Ejector Systems

Older commercial aircraft often exceed FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) sideline noise regulations. The major problem is the jet noise associated with the high exhaust velocities of the low bypass ratio engines on such aircraft. Mixer/ejector exhaust systems can provide a simple means of reducing the jet noise on these aircraft by mixing cool ambient air with the high velocity engine gases before they are exhausted to ambient. This paper presents new information on thrust performance predictions, and thrust augmentation capabilities of mixer/ejectors. Results are presented from the recent development program of the patented Alternating Lobe Mixer Ejector Concept (ALMEC) suppressor system for the Gulfstream GII, GIIB and GIII aircraft. Mixer/ejector performance procedures are presented which include classical control volume analyses, compound compressible flow theory, lobed nozzle loss correlations and state of the art computational fluid dynamic predictions. The mixer/ejector thrust predictions are compared to subscale wind tunnel test model data and actual aircraft flight test measurements. The results demonstrate that a properly designed mixer/ejector noise suppressor can increase effective engine bypass ratio and generate large thrust gains at takeoff conditions with little or no thrust loss at cruise conditions. The cruise performance obtained for such noise suppressor systems is shown to be a strong function of installation effects on the aircraft.

Presz, Walter M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predicting Real-Time Safety of the National Airspace System

To gain the situational awareness necessary for informed decision making regarding avoidance of airspace hazards, each operator must consolidate operations-relevant information from disparate sources and apply extensive domain knowledge to correctly interpret not just the current state of the NAS but forecast its (combined) evolution over the duration of the operation. This time- and workload-intensive process is periodically repeated throughout the operation so that changes can be managed in a timely manner.The imprecision, inaccuracies, inconsistency, and incompleteness of the incoming data further challenges the process. To facilitate informed decision making, this paper presents a model-based framework for the textitautomated real-time monitoring and prediction of possible effects of airspace hazards on the safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). First, hazards to flight are identified and transformed into sms, that is, quantities of interest that could be evaluated based on available data and are predictive of an unsafe event. The sms and associated thresholds that specify when an event transitions from emphsafe to emphunsafe are combined with models of airspace operations and aircraft dynamics. The framework can include any hazard to flight that can be modeled quantitatively. Models can be detailed and complex, or they can be considerably simplifed, as appropriate to the application. Real-time NAS safety monitoring and prediction begins with an estimate of the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, we can then predict the evolution of the NAS - the future state - and the occurrence of hazards and unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace sms is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type andor parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach through a simulated scenario in which we predict the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress. Predictions accounting for common sources of uncertainty are included and it is shown how the predictions improve in time, become more confident, and change dynamically as new information is made available to the prediction algorithm.

safety↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subnetwork representation learning for discovering network biomarkers in predicting lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer

Cervical lymph node metastasis is the leading cause of poor prognosis in oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma and also occurs in the early stages. The current clinical diagnosis depends on a physical examination that is not enough to determine whether micrometastasis remains. The transcriptome profiling technique has shown great potential for predicting micrometastasis by capturing the dynamic activation state of genes. However, there are several technical challenges in using transcriptome data to model patient conditions: (1) An Insufficient number of samples compared to the number of genes, (2) Complex dependence between genes that govern the cancer phenotype, and (3) Heterogeneity between patients between cohorts that differ geographically and racially. We developed a computational framework to learn the subnetwork representation of the transcriptome to discover network biomarkers and determine the potential of metastasis in early oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. Our method achieved high accuracy in predicting the potential of metastasis in two geographically and racially different groups of patients. The robustness of the model and the reproducibility of the discovered network biomarkers show great potential as a tool to diagnose lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Performance Comparison and Prediction based on Distribution-level Phasor Measurement Units

This paper introduces a new distribution level Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) which adopts advanced hardware components and structure. The hardware parameters from the new PMU and the existing PMU are used to build a simulation model to predict the PMU performance. Therefore, a real-world testbench is built and four distribution level PMUs are tested under the steady-state and dynamic tests. The quantitative experiment result confirms the prediction model which could guide future PMU design, and also verifies the accuracy of the new PMU on the synchrophasor and frequency measurements in multiple scenarios.

Wu, Yuru↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio electron dynamics in high electric fields: Accurate prediction of velocity-field curves

Electron dynamics in external electric fields governs the behavior of solid-state electronic devices. First-principles calculations enable precise predictions of charge transport in low electric fields. However, studies of high-field electron dynamics remain elusive due to a lack of accurate and broadly applicable methods. In this work, we develop an efficient approach to solve the real-time Boltzmann transport equation with both the electric field term and ab initio electron-phonon collisions. These simulations provide field-dependent electronic distributions in the time domain, allowing us to investigate both transient and steady-state transport in electric fields ranging from low to high (> 10 kV/cm). The broad capabilities of our approach are shown by computing nonequilibrium electron occupations and velocity-field curves in Si, GaAs, and graphene, obtaining results in quantitative agreement with experiment. Our approach sheds light on microscopic details of transport in high electric fields, including the dominant scattering mechanisms and valley occupation dynamics. Our results demonstrate quantitatively accurate calculations of electron dynamics in low to high electric fields, with broad application to power and micro-electronics, optoelectronics, and sensing.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1986

Flight results from the gravity-gradient-controlled RAE-1 satellite

The in-orbit dynamics of a large, flexible spacecraft has been modeled with a computer simulation, which was used for designing the control system, developing a deployment and gravity-gradient capture procedure, predicting the steady-state behavior, and designing a series of dynamics experiments for the Radio Astronomy Explorer (RAE) satellite. This flexible body dynamics simulator permits three-dimensional, large-angle rotation of the total spacecraft and includes effects of orbit eccentricity, thermal bending, solar pressure, gravitational accelerations, and the damper system. Flight results are consistent with the simulator predictions and are presented for the deployment and capture phases, the steady-state mission, and the dynamics experiments.

Blanchard, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Models of man as a suboptimal predictor

Models of man making predictions of future states of discrete linear dynamic systems are considered. The task is forced-pace, but the pace is slow enough to eliminate the effects of reaction time and neuromuscular lag. The best of the several models considered includes the constraints of limited memory and observation noise.

Rouse, W. B.↗