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NASA NTRS1991

The biogeochemistry of microbial mats, stromatolites and the ancient biosphere

Stromatolites offer an unparalleled geologic record of early life, because they constitute the oldest and most abundant recognizable remains of microbial ecosystems. Microbial mats are living homologs of stromatolites; thus, the physiology of the microbiota as well as the processes which create those features of mats (e.g., biomarker organic compounds, elemental and stable isotopic compositions) which are preserved in the ancient record. Observations of the carbon isotopic composition (delta C-13) of stromatolites and microbial mats were made and are consistent with the hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have declined by at least one to two orders of magnitude during the past 2.5 Ga. Whereas delta C-13 values of carbonate carbon average about 0 permil during both the early and mid-Proterozoic, the delta C-13 values of stromatolitic organic matter increase from an average of -35 between 2.0 and 2.6 Ga ago to an average of about -28 about 1.0 Ga ago. Modern microbial mats in hypersaline environments have delta C-13 values typically in the range of -5 to -9, relative to an inorganic bicarbonate source at 0 permil. Both microbial mats and pur cultures of cyanobacteria grown in waters in near equilibrium with current atmospheric CO2 levels exhibit minimal discrimination against C-13. In contrast, hot spring cyanobacterial mats or cyanobacterial cultures grown under higher CO2 levels exhibit substantially greater discrimination. If care is taken to compare modern mats with stromatolites from comparable environments, it might be possible to estimate ancient levels of atmospheric CO2. In modern microbial mats, a tight coupling exists between photosynthetic organic carbon production and subsequent carbon oxidation, mostly by sulfate reduction. The rate of one process fuels a high rate of the other, with much of the sulfate reduction occurring within the same depth interval as oxygenic photosynthesis. Other aspects of this study are presented.

Desmarais, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Optical Component Performance for the Ocean Radiometer for Carbon Assessment (ORCA)

The Ocean Radiometer for Carbon Assessment (ORCA) is a new design for the next generation remote sensing of ocean biology and biogeochemistry. ORCA is configured to meet all the measurement requirements of the Decadal Survey Aerosol, Cloud, and Ecology (ACE), the Ocean Ecosystem (OES) radiometer and the Pro-ACE climate data continuity mission (PACE). Under the auspices of a 2007 grant from NASA Research Opportunity in Space and Earth Science (ROSES) and the Instrument Incubator Program (IIP), a team at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has been working on a functional prototype with flight-like fore and aft optics and scan mechanisms. As part of the development efforts to bring ORCA closer to a flight configuration and in order to reduce cost, we have conducted component-level optical testing using standard spectrophotometers and system-level characterizations using non-flight commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) focal plane array detectors. Although these arrays would not be able to handle flight data rates, they are adequate for optical alignment and performance testing. The purpose of this presentation is to describe the results of this testing performed at GSFC and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) at the component and system level. Specifically, we show results for ORCA's spectral calibration ranging from the near UV, visible, and near-infrared spectral region.

Quijada, Manuel A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 12: The PACE Level 1C data format

NASA's Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will make global ocean color and atmospheric measurements to provide extended data records of ocean ecology and global biogeochemistry, along with polarimetric measurements for advanced observations of aerosols, clouds and the ocean. PACE will contain three instruments: the primary Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), and two multi-angle polarimeters (MAPs). The latter instruments are contributed under a ‘Do-No-Harm’ (to the rest of the PACE mission) principle, and the PACE Science Data Processing System (SDPS) is only required to produce Level-1b (geolocated radiances with calibration applied) data without performance requirements. However, there is a strong desire to produce data in a format that merges the disparate spatial resolutions, viewing geometry and sampling nature of the three instruments. Our terminology for this format is Level 1c (L1C). This format will be an input to Level 2 algorithms produced from standalone MAP instrument observations, or from algorithms employing multi-sensor fusion. Creating the L1C format has several components. This includes choice of projection method, the means by which multi-angle views are properly incorporated into that projection (‘aggregation’) the means to represent wavelength and light polarization state, the selection of data to be included within the L1C file, and the handling of ancillary data either required for L1C file generation or needed in that format for L2 processing.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Biogeochemical Processes in Microbial Ecosystems

The hierarchical organization of microbial ecosystems determines process rates that shape Earth's environment, create the biomarker sedimentary and atmospheric signatures of life and define the stage upon which major evolutionary events occurred. In order to understand how microorganisms have shaped the global environment of Earth and potentially, other worlds, we must develop an experimental paradigm that links biogeochemical processes with ever-changing temporal and spatial distributions of microbial population, and their metabolic properties. Photosynthetic microbial mats offer an opportunity to define holistic functionality at the millimeter scale. At the same time, their Biogeochemistry contributes to environmental processes on a planetary scale. These mats are possibly direct descendents of the most ancient biological communities; communities in which oxygenic photosynthesis might have been invented. Mats provide one of the best natural systems to study how microbial populations associate to control dynamic biogeochemical gradients. These are self-sustaining, complete ecosystems in which light energy absorbed over a diel (24 hour) cycle drives the synthesis of spatially-organized, diverse biomass. Tightly-coupled microorganisms in the mat have specialized metabolisms that catalyze transformations of carbon, nitrogen. sulfur, and a host of other elements.

DesMarais, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The United States' Next Generation of Atmospheric Composition and Coastal Ecosystem Measurements: NASA's Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Mission

The Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission was recommended by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Earth Science Decadal Survey to measure tropospheric trace gases and aerosols and coastal ocean phytoplankton, water quality, and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit, providing continuous observations within the field of view. To fulfill the mandate and address the challenge put forth by the NRC, two GEO-CAPE Science Working Groups (SWGs), representing the atmospheric composition and ocean color disciplines, have developed realistic science objectives using input drawn from several community workshops. The GEO-CAPE mission will take advantage of this revolutionary advance in temporal frequency for both of these disciplines. Multiple observations per day are required to explore the physical, chemical, and dynamical processes that determine tropospheric composition and air quality over spatial scales ranging from urban to continental, and over temporal scales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. Likewise, high-frequency satellite observations are critical to studying and quantifying biological, chemical, and physical processes within the coastal ocean. These observations are to be achieved from a vantage point near 95deg-100degW, providing a complete view of North America as well as the adjacent oceans. The SWGs have also endorsed the concept of phased implementation using commercial satellites to reduce mission risk and cost. GEO-CAPE will join the global constellation of geostationary atmospheric chemistry and coastal ocean color sensors planned to be in orbit in the 2020 time frame.

Atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2018

Satellite Radiation Products for Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry: Needs, State-Of-The-Art, Gaps, Development Priorities, and Opportunities

Knowing the spatial and temporal distribution of the underwater light field, i.e., the spectral and angular structure of the radiant intensity at any point in the water column, is essential to understanding the biogeochemical processes that control the composition and evolution of aquatic ecosystems and their impact on climate and reaction to climate change. At present, only a few properties are reliably retrieved from space, either directly or via water-leaving radiance. Existing satellite products are limited to planar photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance above the surface and diffuse attenuation coefficient. Examples of operational products are provided, and their advantages and drawbacks are examined. The usefulness and convenience of these products notwithstanding, there is a need, as expressed by the user community, for other products, i.e., sub-surface planar and scalar fluxes, average cosine, spectral fluxes (UV to visible), diurnal fluxes, absorbed fraction of PAR by live algae (APAR), surface albedo, vertical attenuation, and heating rate, and for associating uncertainties to any product on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Methodologies to obtain the new products are qualitatively discussed in view of most recent scientific knowledge and current and future satellite missions, and specific algorithms are presented for some new products, namely sub-surface fluxes and average cosine. A strategy and roadmap (short, medium, and long term) for usage and development priorities is provided, taking into account needs and readiness level. Combining observations from satellites overpassing at different times and geostationary satellites should be pursued to improve the quality of daily-integrated radiation fields, and products should be generated without gaps to provide boundary conditions for general circulation and biogeochemical models. Examples of new products, i.e., daily scalar PAR below the surface, daily average cosine for PAR, and sub-surface spectral scalar fluxes are presented. A procedure to estimate algorithm uncertainties in the total uncertainty budget for above-surface daily PAR, based on radiative simulations for expected situations, is described. In the future, space-borne lidars with ocean profiling capability offer the best hope for improving our knowledge of sub-surface fields. To maximize temporal coverage, space agencies should consider placing ocean-color instruments in L1 orbit, where the sunlit part of the Earth can be frequently observed.

Frouin, Robert↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Hyperspectral Data for Global Water Quality Algorithm Development

Eutrophication and increasing prevalence of potentially toxic algal blooms (cyanoHABs) among global inland water bodies have become a major ecological concern and require direct attention. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local aquatic processes, to spatially resolved global products. Planned aquatic biogeochemistry remote sensing data products from hyperspectral imagers such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission and relevant aquatic sensor sensitivity precursor airborne imaging spectrometer data provide unprecedented radiometric resolution and sensor sensitivity for characterizing complex aquatic ecosystems. However, scarcity of high-quality freshwater in-situ optical data hinders our capability to develop and validate robust retrieval algorithms. A state-of-the-art synthetic dataset of paired top-of-atmosphere, bottom-of-atmosphere, and optical and biogeophysical data was developed through radiative transfer modeling to simulate natural freshwater ecosystems. A synthetic or precursor dataset for SBG is being used to train robust machine learning models to derive water quality products pertinent to SBG mission objectives. The dataset is also used to show the potential of performing vigorous aquatic sensitivity studies and explored pathways for how best to optimize hyperspectral data for machine learning development. A processing pipeline and resultant global synthetic/precursor dataset for inland waters is presented to establish the innovation for water quality studies of inland waters globally. Optical Society of America Imaging and Applied Optics Congress, Hyperspectral Imaging and Sounding of the Environment (OSA HISE) Meeting, 19-23 July 2021, Virtual Meeting, https://www.osa.org/enus/meetings/osa_meetings/optical_sensors_and_sensing_congress/program/hyperspectral_imaging_and_sounding_of_the_environm/

Synthetic↗
NASA NTRS1980

The carbon isotope biogeochemistry of the individual hydrocarbons in bat guano and the ecology of the insectivorous bats in the region of Carlsbad, New Mexico

The structures and C-13 contents of individual hydrocarbons extracted from bat guano found in the Carlsbad region of New Mexico are analyzed in order to elucidate details of the carbon flow in the plant-insect-bat ecosystem. Carbon isotopic analyses indicate that equivalent numbers of plants with C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways occupy the feeding area of the bats, which supports alfalfa and cotton as well as native plants. The molecular composition of the guano is consistent with an origin in two distinct populations of insects with different feeding habits, one of which may graze predominantly on crops. It is also pointed out that isotopic analyses of more ancient guano deposits may be useful in characterizing prevalent vegetation and climate of earlier periods.

Des Marais, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Biogeochemical evolution of ponded meltwater in a High Arctic subglacial tunnel

Subglacial environments comprise ∼10 % of Earth's land surface, host active microbial ecosystems, and are important components of global biogeochemical cycles. However, the broadly inaccessible nature of subglacial systems has left them vastly understudied, and research to date has been limited to laboratory experiments or field measurements using basal ice or subglacial water accessed through boreholes or from the glacier margin. In this study, we extend our understanding of subglacial biogeochemistry and microbiology to include observations of a slushy pond of water that occupied a remnant meltwater channel beneath a polythermal glacier in the Canadian High Arctic over winter. The hydraulics and geochemistry of the system suggest that the pond water originated as late-season, ice-marginal runoff with less than ∼15 % solute contribution from subglacial sources. Over the 8 months of persistent sub-zero regional temperatures, the pond gradually froze, cryo-concentrating solutes in the residual water by up to 7 times. Despite cryo-concentration and the likely influx of some subglacial solute, the pond was depleted in only the most labile and biogeochemically relevant compounds, including ammonium, phosphate, and dissolved organic matter, including a potentially labile tyrosine-like component. DNA amplicon sequencing revealed decreasing microbial diversity with distance into the meltwater channel. The pond at the terminus of the channel hosted a microbial community inherited from late-season meltwater, which was dominated by only six taxa related to known psychrophilic and psychrotolerant heterotrophs that have high metabolic diversity and broad habitat ranges. Collectively, our findings suggest that generalist microbes from the extraglacial or supraglacial environments can become established in subglacial aquatic systems and deplete reservoirs of nutrients and dissolved organic carbon over a period of months. These findings extend our understanding of the microbial and biogeochemical evolution of subglacial aquatic ecosystems and the extent of their habitability.

Ashley J Dubnick↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Comprehensive Plan for the Long-Term Calibration and Validation of Oceanic Biogeochemical Satellite Data

The primary objective of this planning document is to establish a long-term capability and validating oceanic biogeochemical satellite data. It is a pragmatic solution to a practical problem based primarily o the lessons learned from prior satellite missions. All of the plan's elements are seen to be interdependent, so a horizontal organizational scheme is anticipated wherein the overall leadership comes from the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry (OBB) Program Manager and the entire enterprise is split into two components of equal sature: calibration and validation plus satellite data processing. The detailed elements of the activity are based on the basic tasks of the two main components plus the current objectives of the Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap. The former is distinguished by an internal core set of responsibilities and the latter is facilitated through an external connecting-core ring of competed or contracted activities. The core elements for the calibration and validation component include a) publish protocols and performance metrics; b) verify uncertainty budgets; c) manage the development and evaluation of instrumentation; and d) coordinate international partnerships. The core elements for the satellite data processing component are e) process and reprocess multisensor data; f) acquire, distribute, and archive data products; and g) implement new data products. Both components have shared responsibilities for initializing and temporally monitoring satellite calibration. Connecting-core elements include (but are not restricted to) atmospheric correction and characterization, standards and traceability, instrument and analysis round robins, field campaigns and vicarious calibration sites, in situ database, bio-optical algorithm (and product) validation, satellite characterization and vicarious calibration, and image processing software. The plan also includes an accountability process, creating a Calibration and Validation Team (to help manage the activity), and a discussion of issues associated with the plan's scientific focus.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

BIOGEOCHEMICAL STUDIES OF PHOTOSYNTHETIC MICROBIAL MATS AND THEIR BIOTA

Photosynthetic microbial mats offer an opportunity to define holistic functionality at the millimeter scale. At the same time. their biogeochemistry contributes to environmental processes on a planetary scale. These mats are possibly direct descendents of the most ancient biological communities; communities in which oxygenic photosynthesis might have been invented. Mats provide one of the best natural systems to study how microbial populations associate to control dynamic biogeochemical gradients. These are self- sustaining, complete ecosystems in which light energy absorbed over a dial (24 hour) cycle drives the synthesis of spatially-organized, diverse biomass. Tightly-coupled microorganisms in the mat have specialized metabolisms that catalyze transformations of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and a host of other elements.

DesMarais, David↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ocean Carbon Flux, Transport, and Burial Within the Western and Eastern US Coastal Zones

This project has been to develop and apply a regional. eddy-resolving circulation and biogeochemistry model of both the western and eastern U.S. coastal regions, capable of simulating the processes that control the carbon cycle. Validation has been by statistical comparison with analyses from various satellite measurements, including those from EOS sensors, as well as from in situ measurements. Sensitivity studies were carried out to investigate how the coastal ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles respond to changes in climate, large-scale eutrophication from indus- trial pollution, and other anthropogenic induced changes. The research has been conducted in collaboration with research groups at UCLA. NASA/GSFC (Wallops), Rutgers, and SIO. Overall. the project was focused on several key modeling issues, each of which tie back into completing the primary task of developing a coastal carbon model for both the eastern and western US. coasts. Individual groups within the entire program are still collaborating to address these specific tasks. These include: implementation of the coupled circulation/biogeochemical model within the U.S. West Coast. including high-resolution, embedded subdomains for the Southern California Bight and Monterey Bay region; development of a biogeochemical model with resolved carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles; development of data assimilation techniques for use of satellite data sets; reconfiguration of the model domain to U.S. East Coast; development of coastal forcing fields: development of methods to compare the model against remotely sensed data; and, the test of model sensitivity to environmental conditions. Below, we present a summary of the progress made toward achieving these soak. Because this has been a multi-institutional, collaborative effort, we note the groups involved with particular activities.

McWilliams, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

One Step Closer to Mars with Aquaponics: Cultivating Citizen Science in K12 Schools

The Microbial Ecology and Biogeochemistry Research Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center focuses primarily on the nutrient cycling and diversity of complex microbial communities. NASA is interested in the composition and functioning of microbial mat communities as these processes fundamentally shape the form and function of these analogs for the earliest forms of life on Earth (3.6 billion years ago), and likely will on other planets as well. Aquaponics systems are supported by microbial communities who perform many complex ecosystem services, including cycling nitrogen. Microbes are integral to the stability and productivity of aquaponics systems, which are analogous to microbial communities in food production systems that are essential for building efficient life support systems for long-distance space travel. Students at Meadow Park Middle School created 10 parallel aquaponics systems and took temporal microbial samples to characterize whether any macro-ecology variables impacted or changed the microbial diversity of these systems. Students additionally created a website so that other classrooms can pursue similar projects in their own schools (https://go.nasa.gov/2uJhxmF). Our lab at NASA Ames has sequenced water samples from each of the 10 tanks at 3 timepoints using a MinION sequencer. MPMS students will be involved in the analysis of the bioinformatics data generated through this collaboration. Our ongoing collaboration aims to collect and analyze data in the classroom setting that has utility for research scientists, while involving students as collaborators in the research process.

Kolattukudy, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2023

Broader Impacts and Outreach Videos on Ocean Physics and Biogeochemistry

This is just a preliminary NF1676 in advance of filming for a project....A convergent team of experts in biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, mathematics, and computational modeling examine how dynamic and coupled phytoplankton-pathogen-particle-predator linkages coalesce to explain the observed high spatial variability in the efficiency of the export of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the deep ocean. They elucidate and quantify the linkages between viruses and ballast minerals to increase understanding of carbon cycling in the oceanic biological carbon pump and the impact of viruses within it. By providing knowledge than can be used to improve the parameterization of carbon export in Earth system models, the project will help reduce uncertainty in regional marine biogeochemical projections, potentially improving marine ecosystem and fisheries management on timescales from seasons to decades. The project includes activities that provide teaching resources and hands-on training to educators within a ‘Tools of Science’ program that provides a simple and succinct way to communicate the process of scientific research to students in a way that is useful to teachers. The project couples laboratory-based experiments on model host-virus-grazer systems with extensive field based observational and manipulative studies on natural populations of diatoms and coccolithophores, the two phytoplankton groups that account for most of the estimated particulate organic matter flux to the deep ocean. Experiments and measurements integrate diagnostic biological and chemical controls on infection and particle coagulation theory with microscale physics and grazing to quantify links to each hypothesized export mechanism under field-relevant turbulent conditions. Cutting-edge engineering and analytical tools are used to diagnose and track infection dynamics while characterizing and quantifying particle aggregation and disaggregation, mineral dissolution, sinking dynamics, grazing rates, and fecal pellet production at unprecedented resolution and under well-defined, microscale physical regimes. Field campaigns elucidate the relative efficiency of hypothesized mechanisms in stimulating POC export in natural blooms, while providing bulk and size-resolved estimates of POC flux.

Daniel B Whitt↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessment of landscape-scale fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in subtropical coastal wetlands of South Florida

Coastal wetlands play a significant role in the storage of “blue carbon,” indicating their importance in the carbon biogeochemistry in the coastal zone and in global climate change mitigation strategies. We present airborne eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 2 fluxes collected in southern Florida as part of the NASA BlueFlux mission during April 2022, October 2022, February 2023, and April 2023. The flux data generated from this mission consists of over 100 flight hours and more than 6,000 km of horizontal distance over coastal saline and freshwater wetlands. We find that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in CO 2 and CH 2 exchange is primarily influenced by season, vegetation type, ecosystem productivity, and soil inundation. The largest CO 2 uptake fluxes of more than 20 μmol m -2 s -1 were observed over mangroves during all deployments and over swamp forests during flights in April. The greatest CH 4 effluxes of more than 250 nmol m -2 s -1 were measured at the end of the wet season in October 2022 over freshwater marshes and swamp shrublands. Although the combined Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve region was a net sink for carbon, CH 4 emissions reduced the ecosystem carbon uptake capacity (net CO 2 exchange rates) by 11%–91%. Average total net carbon exchange rates during the flight periods were −4 to −0.2 g CO 2 -eq m -2 d -1 . Our results highlight the importance of preserving mangrove forests and point to potential avenues of further research for greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2020

Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

canopy radiative transfer↗