SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “effort estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

An introduction to Spent Nuclear Fuel decay heat for Light Water Reactors: a review from the NEA WPNCS

This paper summarized the efforts performed to understand decay heat estimation from existing spent nuclear fuel (SNF), under the auspices of the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. Needs for precise estimations are related to safety, cost, and optimization of SNF handling, storage, and repository. The physical origins of decay heat (a more correct denomination would be decay power) are then introduced, to identify its main contributors (fission products and actinides) and time-dependent evolution. Due to limited absolute prediction capabilities, experimental information is crucial; measurement facilities and methods are then presented, highlighting both their relevance and our need for maintaining the unique current full-scale facility and developing new ones. The third part of this report is dedicated to the computational aspect of the decay heat estimation: calculation methods, codes, and validation. Different approaches and implementations currently exist for these three aspects, directly impacting our capabilities to predict decay heat and to inform decision-makers. Finally, recommendations from the expert community are proposed, potentially guiding future experimental and computational developments. One of the most important outcomes of this work is the consensus among participants on the need to reduce biases and uncertainties for the estimated SNF decay heat. If it is agreed that uncertainties (being one standard deviation) are on average small (less than a few percent), they still substantially impact various applications when one needs to consider up to three standard deviations, thus covering more than 95% of cases. The second main finding is the need of new decay heat measurements and validation for cases corresponding to more modern fuel characteristics: higher initial enrichment, higher average burnup, as well as shorter and longer cooling time. Similar needs exist for fuel types without public experimental data, such as MOX, VVER, or CANDU fuels. A third outcome is related to SNF assemblies for which no direct validation can be performed, representing the vast majority of cases (due to the large number of SNF assemblies currently stored, or too short or too long cooling periods of interest). A few solutions are possible, depending on the application. For the final repository, systematic measurements of quantities related to decay heat can be performed, such as neutron or gamma emission. This would provide indications of the SNF decay heat at the time of encapsulation. For other applications (short- or long-term cooling), the community would benefit from applying consistent and accepted recommendations on calculation methods, for both decay heat and uncertainties. This would improve the understanding of the results and make comparisons easier.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strategies for community-sourced biocuration in bioinformatics: a case study on MIBiG 4.0

Biocuration is essential to transform molecular sequence data into standardized, machine-readable resources. Such curated datasets enable comparative analysis, predictive modeling, and data integration across bioinformatics platforms. While professional biocuration is resource-intensive and usually limited to institutional settings, community-driven approaches can mobilize large-scale annotation of specialized datasets and are more resilient to disruptions in scientific funding. Here, we present a model for community-powered curation applied to the Minimum Information about a Biosynthetic Gene Cluster (MIBiG) repository. Through a framework of workflows for metadata capture, annotation validation, and contributor coordination, the MIBiG 4.0 initiative recruited 267 scientists across 178 institutions from 33 countries, volunteering an estimated 4000 h of work. These efforts expanded the MIBiG repository by 22% and enhanced its usability in downstream molecular data analyses in comparative genomic analyses, natural product discovery, and machine learning applications. We provide strategies and actionable lessons for adopting this model, supporting the sustainability of curated bioinformatics resources central to nucleic acid research and related fields.

biocuration↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-resolution mapping reveals hotspots and sex-biased recombination in Populus trichocarpa

Abstract Fine-scale meiotic recombination is fundamental to the outcome of natural and artificial selection. Here, dense genetic mapping and haplotype reconstruction were used to estimate recombination for a full factorial Populus trichocarpa cross of 7 males and 7 females. Genomes of the resulting 49 full-sib families (N = 829 offspring) were resequenced, and high-fidelity biallelic SNP/INDELs and pedigree information were used to ascertain allelic phase and impute progeny genotypes to recover gametic haplotypes. The 14 parental genetic maps contained 1,820 SNP/INDELs on average that covered 376.7 Mb of physical length across 19 chromosomes. Comparison of parental and progeny haplotypes allowed fine-scale demarcation of cross-over regions, where 38,846 cross-over events in 1,658 gametes were observed. Cross-over events were positively associated with gene density and negatively associated with GC content and long-terminal repeats. One of the most striking findings was higher rates of cross-overs in males in 8 out of 19 chromosomes. Regions with elevated male cross-over rates had lower gene density and GC content than windows showing no sex bias. High-resolution analysis identified 67 candidate cross-over hotspots spread throughout the genome. DNA sequence motifs enriched in these regions showed striking similarity to those of maize, Arabidopsis, and wheat. These findings, and recombination estimates, will be useful for ongoing efforts to accelerate domestication of this and other biomass feedstocks, as well as future studies investigating broader questions related to evolutionary history, perennial development, phenology, wood formation, vegetative propagation, and dioecy that cannot be studied using annual plant model systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural recharge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup database between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural re-charge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup data base between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polymers from Levoglucosenone and Other Anhydrosugars (CRADA Final Report)

The goal of this work is to identify promising drop-in or novel polymers that can be produced from levoglucosenone (LGO), CyreneTM, or other anhydrous sugars. LGO is a potentially important feedstock for polymers produced from renewable sources and can be produced in high yields by the company Circa from the pyrolysis of cellulose and biomass. NLR has a long history with anhydrosugars, pyrolysis and biomass-based polymers and has recently developed machine learning (ML) tools for predicting polymer properties. The DOE has recently supported efforts to identify coproducts from pyrolysis of biomass and their use in the production of performance advantaged polymers. DOE is also supporting the development of ML and molecular modeling for predicting and understanding polymer properties. NLR will leverage this expertise and experience to map out the pathways to polymers from LGO, use ML to identify the properties of novel polymers and estimate the market application space. From this effort NLR will deliver a summary report that outlines the most promising pathways based on quantitative and qualitative metrics for producing polymers from LGO.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fast estimation of ion-pairing for screening electrolytes: A cluster can approximate a bulk liquid

The propensity for ion-pairing can often dictate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of electrolyte solutions. Fast and accurate estimates of ion-pairing can thus be extremely valuable for supplementing design and screening efforts for novel electrolytes. We introduce an efficient cluster model to estimate the local ion-pair potential-of-mean-force between ionic solutes in electrolytes. The model incorporates an ion-pair and a few layers of explicit solvent in a gas-phase cluster and leverages an enhanced sampling approach to achieve high efficiency and accuracy. We employ harmonic restraints to prevent solvent escape from the cluster and restrict sampling of large inter-ion distances. We develop a cluster ion-pair sampling tool that implements our cluster model and demonstrate its potential utility for screening simple and poly-electrolyte systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for Quantifying Data Scarcity when Modeling Human Behavior via Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Computational models that formalize complex human behaviors enable study and understanding of such behaviors. However, collecting behavior data required to estimate the parameters of such models is often tedious and resource intensive. Thus, estimating dataset size as part of data collection planning (also known as Sample Size Determination) is important to reduce the time and effort of behavior data collection while maintaining an accurate estimate of model parameters. In this paper, we present a sample size determination method based on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for a specific Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) model of human behavior, in two cases: 1) pre-hoc experiment design—conducted in the planning stage before any data is collected, to guide the estimation of how many samples to collect; and 2) post-hoc dataset analysis—performed after data is collected, to decide if the existing dataset has sufficient samples and whether more data is needed. Here, we validate our approach in experiments with a realistic model of behaviors of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and illustrate how to pick a reasonable sample size target. Our work enables model designers to perform a deeper, principled investigation of effects of dataset size on IRL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of Self-Reported Bothersome Tinnitus in U.S. Army Soldiers From January 1, 2015, Through September 30, 2019

Purpose: Tinnitus is a symptom of auditory dysfunction or injury and can be a precursor to permanent hearing loss. Tinnitus can interfere with communication, sleep, concentration, and mood; when this occurs, it is referred to as bothersome tinnitus. Annual hearing surveillance in the U.S. Army includes screening for bothersome tinnitus. Estimating the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus can facilitate prioritization of prevention and education efforts. The objective of this study was to examine Army hearing conservation data to estimate the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus as a function of age, hearing, sex, service component, and pay grade. Method: The study employed a cross-sectional, retrospective design. Records from 1,485,059 U.S. Army Soldiers retrieved from the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System–Hearing Conservation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence of bothersome tinnitus and its associations with Soldiers' demographic characteristics. Results: The estimated prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was 17.1% between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019; 13.6% of the Soldiers reported “bothered a little” and 3.5% reported “bothered a lot.” Proportionally, the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was higher for males, older Soldiers, and Reserve Component Soldiers. For every 1-year increase in age, the odds of self-reporting “bothered a little” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all tinnitus” would be expected to increase by 2.2% (2.1%, 2.3%), and the odds of self-reporting “bothered a lot” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all” tinnitus would be expected to increase by 3.6% (3.5%, 3.7%). Conclusions: The self-reported prevalence of bothersome tinnitus in the U.S. Army (17.1%) is substantially higher than that of the general population, where prevalence of bothersome tinnitus is estimated at 6.6%. Examination of bothersome tinnitus among Soldiers is an important step toward optimizing prevention, education, and intervention efforts.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient Electrochemical Tanks-in-Series Model for Lithium Sulfur Batteries

This article applies and efficiently implements the Tanks-in-Series methodology ( J. Electrochem. Soc. , 167 , 013534 (2020)) to generate a computationally efficient electrochemical model for Lithium-Sulfur batteries. The original Tank model approach for Lithium-ion batteries is modified to account for porosity changes with time. In addition, an exponential scaling method is introduced that enables efficient simulation of the model equations to address the wide range of time constants present for different reactions in the Lithium-Sulfur system. The Tank Model achieves acceptable voltage error even for transport-limited discharged conditions. Predictions of internal electrochemical variables are examined, and electrochemical implications of the approximations discussed. This suggests significant potential for real-time applications such as optimal charging, cell-balancing, and estimation, and represents a step forward in efforts to incorporate detailed electrochemical models in advanced Battery Management Systems for Lithium-Sulfur batteries.

Parke, Caitlin D. (ORCID:0000000177324044)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-assisted generative adversarial network for X-ray tomography

X-ray tomography is capable of imaging the interior of objects in three dimensions non-invasively, with applications in biomedical imaging, materials science, electronic inspection, and other fields. The reconstruction process can be an ill-conditioned inverse problem, requiring regularization to obtain satisfactory results. Recently, deep learning has been adopted for tomographic reconstruction. Unlike iterative algorithms which require a distribution that is known a priori , deep reconstruction networks can learn a prior distribution through sampling the training distributions. In this work, we develop a Physics-assisted Generative Adversarial Network (PGAN), a two-step algorithm for tomographic reconstruction. In contrast to previous efforts, our PGAN utilizes maximum-likelihood estimates derived from the measurements to regularize the reconstruction with both known physics and the learned prior. Compared with methods with less physics assisting in training, PGAN can reduce the photon requirement with limited projection angles to achieve a given error rate. The advantages of using a physics-assisted learned prior in X-ray tomography may further enable low-photon nanoscale imaging.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

National Wind Energy Workforce Assessment: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Needs

The wind workforce gap is defined as the disconnect between employers having difficulty finding qualified candidates while potential wind energy workers report having difficulty finding jobs and educational institutions having difficulty placing students in industry. For this assessment, a system dynamics model - informed by a survey effort completed in 2022 and other anecdotal research - was created to better understand potential scenarios and actions that could be used to help close the workforce gap. The survey was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with BW Research Partnership, to understand the perspective of wind industry firms, wind educators, current wind energy industry employees, and current renewable energy students on the workforce pathways into the wind industry. The information gathered through the survey effort was used to help develop workforce estimation scenarios, gain insight into why the workforce gap exists, and evaluate areas of opportunity to reduce barriers of entry into the wind energy industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗