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IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

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Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

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Study on Conversion from an Existing Alternating Current Medium-Voltage Line to a Direct Current Line: A Case of Load or Source Expansion

Simultaneous increase of power generation through renewable systems and load due owing to the rapid growth in electrified road transportation systems, leads to new challenges in the design, operation, and protection of distribution-level electrical power systems. This paper addresses challenges related to the integration of new sources or loads to a distribution grid through long alternating current lines. The International Council on Large Electric Systems medium-voltage benchmark model developed for North America was used for simulation studies. Use cases were developed to illuminate the issues related to long alternating current lines and the usefulness of medium-voltage direct current lines in a distribution network.

Jaldanki, Sreenivasa↗

Subcritical crack growth in soda-lime glass in combined mode I and mode II loading

Subcritical crack growth under mixed-mode loading was studied in soda-lime glass. Pure mode I, combined mode I and mode II, and pure mode II loadings were achieved in precracked disk specimens by loading in diametral compression at selected angles with respect to the symmetric radial crack. Crack growth was monitored by measuring the resistance changes in a microcircuit grid consisting of parallel, electrically conducting grid lines deposited on the surface of the disk specimens by photolithography. Subcritical crack growth rates in pure mode I, pure mode II, and combined mode I and mode II loading could be described by an exponential relationship between crack growth rate and an effective crack driving force derived from a mode I-mode II fracture toughness envelope. The effective crack driving force was based on an empirical representation of the noncoplanar strain energy release rate. Stress intensities for kinked cracks were assessed using the method of caustics and an initial decrease and a subsequent increase in the subcritical crack growth rates of kinked cracks were shown to correlate with the variations of the mode I and the mode II stress intensities.

Singh, Dileep↗

Sustained load crack growth design data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy tanks containing hydrazine

Results are presented for an experimental study intended to provide sustained load crack growth (SLCG) data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy tanks containing MIL-P-26536 hydrazine and refined hydrazine. Fracture mechanics data on crack growth threshold for heat-treated forgings, aged and unaged welds, and aged and unaged heat-affected zones (HAZ) are presented. All tests were made on uniaxially loaded fracture mechanics specimens involving part-through cracks, and an electrical discharge machined notch was used to start the crack. Fracture mechanics design curves of crack growth threshold stress intensity versus temperature are obtained for the temperature range 40-71 C. Major conclusions are that extreme susceptibility to SLCG in hydrazine is a universal property of unaged weld metal in Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy of normal interstitial content, and that aging both weld metal and HAZ at 510 C for 4 hr after welding completely removes all susceptibility to SLCG induced by hydrazine, with less susceptibility to SLCG in refined hydrazine.

Lewis, J. C.↗

Characterization of fatigue crack initiation and propagation in Ti-6Al-4V with electrical potential drop technique

Electrical potential methods have been used in the past primarily to monitor crack length in long crack specimens subjected to fatigue loading. An attempt was made to develop test procedures for monitoring the fatigue crack initiation and the growth of short fatigue cracks in a turbine disk alloy with the electrical potential drop technique (EPDT). In addition, the EPDT was also applied to monitor the fatigue crack growth in long crack specimens of the same alloy. The resolution of the EPDT for different specimen geometries was determined. Factors influencing the EPDT are identified and the applicability of EPDT in implementing damage tolerant design concepts for turbine disk materials is discussed. The experimental procedure adopted and the results obtained is discussed. No substantial differences were observed between the fatigue crack growth data of short and long crack specimens.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

Best Practices in Integrated Resource Planning: A guide for planners developing the electricity resource mix of the future

Most states today require regulated electric utilities to file an IRP every 1 to 5 years, and some utilities voluntarily prepare these plans. Planning needs have changed in recent years due to emerging load growth, plant retirements, rising costs, and more extreme weather events – among other factors. In response, Synapse Energy Economics and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory produced a joint report, Best Practices in Integrated Resource Planning: A guide for planners developing the electricity resource mix of the future. The guide offers best planning practices for electricity systems undergoing a major transition, but also contains a wealth of practical guidance to develop technically sophisticated, clearer, more effective, and state-of-the-art electric utility resource plans. The guide is for resource planning professionals and stakeholders involved in resource planning processes. This diverse group includes utility personnel tasked with conducting resource planning and making investment decisions, state regulatory commissions that develop planning guidance and oversee the resource planning process, and stakeholders that represent a wide range of interests—utility consumer advocates, environmental groups, industrial customers, local governments, independent power producers, and many other

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Fatigue crack growth at elevated temperature 316 stainless steel and H-13 steel

Crack growths were measured at elevated temperatures under four types of loading: pp, pc, cp, and cc. In H-13 steel, all these four types of loading gave nearly the same crack growth rates, and the length of hold time had negligible effects. In AISI 316 stainless steel, the hold time effects on crack growth rate were negligible if the loading was tension-tension type; however, these effects were significant in reversed bending load, and the crack growth rates under these four types of loading varied considerably. Both tensile and compressive hold times caused increased crack growth rate, but the compressive hold period was more deleterious than the tensile one. Metallographic examination showed that all the crack paths under different types of loading were largely transgranular for both CTS tension-tension specimens and SEN reversed cantilever bending specimens. In addition, an electric potential technique was used to monitor crack growth at elevated temperature.

Chen, W. C.↗

Demand Response in Residential Energy Code: Technical Brief

As buildings account for over 75% of U.S. electricity use, effectively managing their loads can greatly facilitate the transition towards a clean, reliable grid. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) combine efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communication to provide occupant comfort and productivity while serving the grid as a distributed energy resource (DER). In turn, GEBs can play a key role in ensuring access to an affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern U.S. electric power system. Their national adoption could provide $\$$100-200 billion in U.S. electric power system cost savings over the next two decades. The associated reduction in CO 2 emissions is estimated at 6% per year by 2030 (DOE 2021). Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and continually evolve to include advanced technologies and innovative practices. Historically, national model energy codes establish minimum efficiency requirements for new construction (ICC 2020). Expanding codes to support GEB capabilities is a pivotal step towards realizing demand flexibility in support of a clean grid by addressing capabilities to improve interoperability between smart building systems, the grid, and renewable energy resources. Realizing GEBs requires buildings with automated demand response (DR) capabilities that enable standardized communication with or control of, subject to explicit consumer consent, energy smart appliances or home energy management systems. This is achieved through direct or indirect (i.e., via an aggregator) communication between appliances and the electric grid. Energy codes can also support DR communication standardization and advance the deployment of building-integrated DERs such as energy storage, generation, and electric vehicles (EVs). Incorporating automated DR capabilities in energy codes provides many benefits to the consumers. Specifically, it aligns building electric load demand with intermittent renewable energy source availability, decreases peak load on the electric grid, allows buildings to respond to utility price signals, supports electrical network reliability and market growth of products and processes aligned with clean economic growth. The incorporation of DR into the model residential energy codes was considered for both the 2021 and 2024 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) code development cycles. The approved DR measures in the 2021 cycle were removed in response to appeals (ICC 2020). Updated language was presented for consideration again for the 2024 IECC, where it was negotiated and again approved, and again removed in response to appeals (ICC 2024). This resulted in many sections, including sections on demand responsive controls, being moved to the credits options or an appendix as a voluntary application. This technical brief updates the proposed DR components such that they can be considered by states and local governments for direct incorporation into their codes, as well as for future IECC energy code development. The proposal refinements are intended to support consistency in approach and provide a degree of certainty for building owners, designers, contractors, manufacturers, and building and fire safety professionals. The scope of this technical brief includes three strategies for DR in residential buildings: 1) smart thermostats with demand-responsive control, 2) electric water heating incorporating demand-responsive controls and communication and 3) grid Integrated solar and energy storage systems.

2021 IECC↗

Speed to Power: Solutions for Accelerating Large Load Connections

Rapid growth in demand from data centers and other large loads is creating a range of new challenges for electricity planners, investors, system operators, and regulators, leading to bottlenecks that have slowed connection of large loads to the electric grid. In response, innovative solutions for accelerating large load connections are beginning to emerge across the U.S. Drawing on an extensive document and literature review, this report identifies more than 40 potential solutions for accelerating large load connections, organized into five functional areas: load forecasting, interconnection, resource planning and procurement, markets and operations, and cost allocation and ratemaking. The five functional areas provide a framework for organizing challenges and solutions to large load connection bottlenecks.

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Distribution Operations: The Evolution of Distributed Energy Resources [Guest Editorial]

Utilities around the world are experiencing change with the increasing digitalization of their systems and those of their customers. Efforts to decarbonize the electric power system have led to growth in renewable energy resources, particularly distributed energy resources (DERs), such as generation, storage, and flexible load, both in front of and behind the meter. As this change occurs in any given utility service area, new tools, such as advanced distribution management systems (ADMSs), are needed to manage utility operations, planning, and business issues, some of which are discussed here.

distributed energy resources, DER, decarbonize, re↗

Electricity Rate Designs for Large Loads: Evolving Practices and Opportunities 2026 Update

Electricity demand from large-load customers such as data centers is projected to grow significantly in the near term. While these large loads play an important role in advancing technology innovation and economic growth in the United States, meeting their energy needs requires utilities and regulators to consider important operational and financial risks, such as insufficient energy supply or underutilized investments, that can impact all customers. This paper builds on similar research published in January 2025, providing an overview of how utilities and regulators are managing these risks through different tariffs, including rate structures and electric service agreements. Regulators, utilities, customers, and other stakeholders can use this paper as a foundation when discussing issues and sharing perspectives on developing or reviewing large-load tariffs.

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Regulation of adult cardiocyte growth: effects of active and passive mechanical loading

Fluctuations in hemodynamic load have been documented to modulate contractile protein turnover and myofibrillar structure in the heart; however, the relative importance of active and passive loading in regulating adult cardiocyte growth remains unresolved. To address this issue at the cellular level, adult feline cardiocytes were cultured either on Silastic membranes or plastic surfaces. Cardiocyte-laden membranes were stretched 10% of their rest length to enhance passive loading, whereas heart cells cultured on plastic or Silastic were field stimulated at 1 Hz to mimic active loading. Turnover of contractile proteins and structural integrity of the contractile-cytoskeletal apparatus were monitored for periods ranging from 4 to 72 h. Active and passive loading elevated contractile protein synthesis nearly equally (approximately 50%) and promoted the attachment of remodeled myofibrils to vinculin-positive focal contacts and/or costameres during the first 24 h of loading. Thereafter, rates of contractile protein synthesis returned to control values in passively stretched heart cells but remained elevated in field-stimulated cultures. The fractional rate of growth was increased significantly (approximately 8%/day) in electrically paced cells, whereas in passively stretched cardiocytes the growth rate rose only modestly (approximately 2%/day). Changes in the rate of myocyte growth appeared more closely correlated with the development of focal contacts and myofibril remodeling than with changes in myofibrillar protein turnover per se. 2,3-Butanedione monoxime, nifedipine, and, to a lesser extent, ryanodine blocked field-stimulated contractile protein synthesis and myofibrillar remodeling but had no impact on protein turnover or myofibril reassembly in passively loaded cardiocytes. The results of these experiments imply that both active and passive loading stimulate contractile protein turnover and myofibril remodeling, but the generation of active tension accelerates cardiocyte growth to a greater extent than passive loading. Furthermore, pharmacological interventions suggest that unique pathways may mediate these cellular events in actively and passively loaded adult cardiocytes.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

Plentiful electricity turns wholesale prices negative

In 2020, average wholesale electricity prices in the United States fell to $21/MWh, their lowest level since the beginning of the 21st century. Low natural gas prices and the proliferation of low marginal cost resources like wind and solar had already established a trend toward lower wholesale prices, and this trend was exacerbated by declining electricity demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Negative real-time hourly wholesale prices occurred in about 4% of all hours and wholesale market nodes across the United States, but these were not distributed evenly. Regional clusters emerged, for example, in the Permian Basin in western Texas, and in Kansas and western Oklahoma in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), negative prices accounted for more than 25% of all hours. Negative electricity prices result either from local congestion of the transmission system leading supply to exceed demand locally or due to system-wide oversupply. Looking at the latter condition in SPP, we find that all major generator types contribute to this excess supply, because of limited ramping flexibility or self-scheduled out-of-market unit commitments. Additional monetary production incentives such as renewable energy credits or tax credits also enable negative bids; indeed, negative prices predominantly occur when demand levels are low and wind production levels are high. Frequent negative prices can inform the value of additional renewable energy investments at specific locations, the need for transmission and storage development, and opportunities load growth or adaptation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume III – Stakeholder ecosystem management challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program stakeholder ecosystem management strategies, which provide information on value delivery and describe how program implementers leverage partner capabilities and collaborate to deliver customer and grid benefits. This report discusses the role of stakeholder ecosystem management in demand flexibility programs, identifies existing challenges to effective stakeholder management, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, customer relationship management strategies, and program life cycle.

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