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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Emissions of Trace Gases and Particles from Savanna Fires in Southern Africa

Airborne measurements made on initial smoke from 10 savanna fires in southern Africa provide quantitative data on emissions of 50 gaseous and particulate species, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane, ammonia, dimethyl sulfide, nonmethane organic compounds, halocarbons, gaseous organic acids, aerosol ionic components, carbonaceous aerosols, and condensation nuclei (CN). Measurements of several of the gaseous species by gas chromatography and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy are compared. Emission ratios and emission factors are given for eight species that have not been reported previously for biomass burning of savanna in southern Africa (namely, dimethyl sulfide, methyl nitrate, five hydrocarbons, and particles with diameters from 0.1 to 3 microns). The emission factor that we measured for ammonia is lower by a factor of 4, and the emission factors for formaldehyde, hydrogen cyanide, and CN are greater by factors of about 3, 20, and 3 - 15, respectively, than previously reported values. The new emission factors are used to estimate annual emissions of these species from savanna fires in Africa and worldwide.

Sinha, Parikhit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methane Exhaust Measurements at Gathering Compressor Stations in the United States

Unburned methane entrained in exhaust from natural gas-fired compressor engines (“combustion slip”) can account for a substantial portion of station-level methane emissions. A novel in-stack, tracer gas method was coupled with Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) species measurements to quantify combustion slip from natural gas compressor engines at 67 gathering and boosting stations owned or managed by nine “study partner” operators in 11 U.S. states. The mean methane emission rate from 63 four-stroke, lean-burn (4SLB) compressor engines was 5.62 kg/h (95% CI = 5.15–6.17 kg/h) and ranged from 0.3 to 12.6 kg/h. The mean methane emission rate from 39 fourstroke, rich-burn (4SRB) compressor engines was 0.40 kg/h (95% CI = 0.37– 0.42 kg/h) and ranged from 0.01 to 4.5 kg/h. Study results for 4SLB engines were lower than both the U.S. EPA compilation of air pollutant emission factors (AP-42) and Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (GHGI) by 8 and 9%, respectively. Study results for 4SRB engines were 43% of the AP-42 emission factor and 8% of the GHGI emission factor, the latter of which does not distinguish between engine types. Total annual combustion slip from the U.S. natural gas gathering and boosting sector was modeled using measured emission rates and compressor unit counts from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. Modeled results [328 Gg/y (95% CI = 235–436 Gg/y) of unburned methane] would account for 24% (95% CI = 17–31%) of the 1391 Gg of methane emissions for “Gathering and Boosting Stations”, or 6% of the net emissions for “Natural Gas Systems” (5598 Gg) as reported in the 2020 U.S. EPA GHGI. In conclusion, gathering and boosting combustion slip emissions reported in the 2020 GHGI (374 Gg) fall within the uncertainty of this model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flexible Operation of Natural Gas Power Plants in Texas: Startup and Shutdown Durations and Nitrogen Dioxide Emissions

This dataset provides insights into historical flexible operation of natural gas power plants in Texas, with a focus on startup and shutdown events. The dataset includes tables summarizing startup and shutdown durations as well as nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission factors during these events, and compares these emission factors with those observed during all other operating phases (referred to here as “steady-state operation”). The dataset is derived using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s Clean Air Markets Program Data (CAMPD). Historical hourly data from 2015–2024, including electricity generation, heat input, and NOx emission factors, are used for natural gas combined cycle units, combustion turbine units, and steam turbine units in Texas. This work was authored by the National Laboratory of the Rockies, operated by the Alliance for Energy Innovation, LLC, for the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) under contract no. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium, a strategic partnership between DOE and the national laboratories to bring together leading experts, technologies, and resources to collaborate on the goal of modernizing the nation’s grid. The views expressed in the dataset do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing Hazardous Gases from NMC811 Materials and Coin Cells with TGA and Tube-Furnace FTIR-MS Evolved-Gas-Analysis

Abuse testing is useful for informing the risks of different battery chemistries but has been limited to larger formats. This paper conducted thermal abuse tests at the smaller coin cell level to determine its relevance in specifying vent gas flammability and toxicity. A nitrogen purge carried the evolved gases into a parallel Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) and a mass spectrometer (MS) downstream of the tube furnace. The experimental system was validated by comparing evolved gas data for single components between the tube furnace system and a thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) instrument. Multiple samples were tested during validation, including CaCO3, electrolyte, delithiated NMC 811 cathode, and lithiated graphite anode. Temperature-resolved gas evolution of HF, CO2, CO, H2, and hydrocarbons from isolated components helped to characterize the emission sources. A previously unreported H2 generation mechanism was found. It was shown that the reduced NMC cathode acts as a catalyst to crack polypropylene-decomposed hydrocarbons into H2 at around 450 degrees C. It was also shown, while studying LiPF6 thermal decomposition, that using the tube furnace with a coin cell casing as the sample holder has some advantages for evolved-gas analysis of environmentally sensitive samples relative to testing in TGA instruments. After validation with single components, a fully charged NMC 811 coin cell was failed in the tube furnace. The measured evolved gases were found to be a combination of the species measured from the single component tests. H2 formation related to the reduced cathode was found to have greater abundance than H2 formed from the anode. Hydrogen fluoride emission factors and diethyl carbonate conversion emission factors assist in understanding the gaseous hazards for larger format cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling residential heating decarbonization through hydronic low-temperature thermal distribution using forced-air assistive devices

Space heating represents approximately one-tenth of the United States’ energy use and has a breadth of potential for emission reduction. An element of space heating, hydronic heat distribution methods, use water supply temperatures up to 82.2 °C (180 °F). However, this operating temperature can be incompatible with high-efficiency heat generation systems, which typically provide heating temperatures of up to 60 °C (140 °F). In this work, a low-cost retrofit solution is developed using experimentally validated computational tools by incorporating an airflow distributor that preferentially directs the airflow from a fan to enhance heat transfer over the finned-tube heat exchanger found in conventional baseboards. The same heat output of traditional baseboard heat distribution systems operating at higher water supply temperatures (71.1 – 82.2 °C) can also be achieved at lower temperatures (≤60 °C). Specifically, results indicate that the technology can produce more than a 46.7% improvement in the heat transfer output at temperatures as low as 60 °C (140 °F), effectively matching the same output range achieved by 71.1 – 82.2 °C (160–180 °F) water supply temperatures. An important benefit of this solution is that it utilizes the existing infrastructure as opposed to requiring the replacement of the entire distribution system. Additionally, this technology enables existing building infrastructure to be coupled with newer, high-efficiency heating systems such as condensing boilers, solar-thermal systems, and geothermal/air-to-water heat pumps that may produce lower water supply temperatures (60 °C). A geospatially resolved techno-economic and environmental analysis is completed and presented to further understand the equivalent carbon footprint of enabling higher efficiency heat generation systems with the improved efficiency heat distribution system disclosed. Using 2021 grid-average emission factors, an emission reduction of up to a 67.5% decrease (2658 kgCO 2 /yr) for a single-family home, depending on state and climate region, could be realized by replacing a traditional natural gas-fired boiler with an air-to-water heat pump coupled to the same high-temperature heat distribution system along with the low-cost retrofit solution. A complete CO 2 emission reduction of 6688 kgCO 2 /yr, depending on state and climate region, could be realized if all electricity is further renewably sourced. Thus, this study provides a possible pathway towards enabling the reduction of operational emissions in space heating.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methane Emissions from Gathering Compressor Stations in the U.S.

Using results from a nationally representative measurement campaign at 180 gathering compressor stations conducted with nine industry partners, this study estimated emissions for the U.S. gathering sector, where sector-specific emission factors have not been previously available. The study drew from a partner station population of 1705 stations—a significantly larger pool than was available for prior studies. Data indicated that whole gas emission rates from components on gathering stations were comparable to or higher than emission factors utilized by the EPA’s greenhouse gas reporting program (GHGRP) but less than emission factors used for similar components on transmission compressor stations. Field data also indicated that the national population of stations likely has a higher fraction of smaller stations, operating at lower throughput per station, than the data used to develop the per-station emission factor used in EPA’s greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI). This was the first national study to incorporate extensive activity data reported to the GHGRP, including 319 basin-level reports, covering 15,895 reported compressors. Further, combining study emission data with 2017 GHGRP activity data, the study indicated statistically lower national emissions of 1290 [1246–1342] Gg methane per year or 66% [64–69%] of current GHGI estimates, despite estimating 17% [12–22%] more stations than the 2017 GHGI (95% confidence interval). Finally, we propose a replicable method that uses GHGRP activity data to annually update GHGI gathering and boost sector emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Significant Tropospheric O3 Production from Extratropical Forest Fires:When? When Not?

There is significant controversy on whether extratropical fires contribute importantly to widespread ozone productionabsent the addition of urban pollutant nitrogen oxides (Jaffe and Widger, 2012, Singh et al., 2012,2013). Wereport a significant range of O3 production early in the fire plume history and report controls on which notable O3production occurs. The current data set is the airborne observations made on board NASAs highly instrumentedDC-8 aircraft during the ARCTAS (2008) and SEAC4RS (2013) campaigns within the Western United States. Aclear analysis of fire emissions was aided considerably by MERET (a Mixed Effects Regressions Emissions Technique).This technique allows consistent emission factors and enhancement ratios for O3 for individual aircraftsamples largely free from uncertainties resulting from mixing and entrainment which plague many published estimates.(Yokelson et al, 2013, Chatfield and Andreae, 2016). We find support for the reasonable idea that the ratioof nitrogen oxides (NOx) to volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions controls new O3 production. The evidence isfor significant O3 production from high-fuel-nitrogen fuels (as evidenced by acetonitrile) and extremely hot largefires (like the Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013 which we analyze), while others do not. VOC emissions factors varysignificantly from fire to fire (and from different samples in the Rim Fire). Relative CO production (aka modifiedcombustion efficiency) is only one factor describing VOC emissions factors.

Chatfield, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methane Emissions Produced by Pneumatic Devices and Produced Water Tanks on Natural Gas Wellsites

In recent years, more scrutiny has been placed on the release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) by the oil and gas industry in North America as climate concerns increase. In the coming years, stricter regulations proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning the release of GHGs will further direct attention to GHG emissions quantification, modeling, and overall reduction. Active natural gas wellsites employ production equipment that routinely emits methane during normal operation. Production equipment often includes, but is not limited to, gas production units (GPUs), pneumatic controllers (PCs) and actuators powered by produced natural gas, and produced water storage tanks. This work details direct methane emission measurements taken at active natural gas wellsites originating from intermittent pneumatic controllers and produced water storage tanks. Efforts to model methane flows originating from these sources are also detailed, and those results are compared to direct measurement. The direct methane emissions measurement campaign collected flow data from two active dry wellsites in the Marcellus shale region. These measurement campaigns captured, in total, several weeks of continuous data from these sites. Data included multiple pneumatic device vent flowrate channels, a single channel monitoring total emissions vented from the produced water storage tanks, and corresponding site weather data. Periodic composition measurements were taken from flows vented from produced water tanks. Computational modeling efforts attempted to mimic a given site’s methane emissions behavior given limited input parameters. Direct measurement data and simulation data yielded, through reduction and analysis, apparent methane emissions factors, statistics on pneumatic device actuation events, important relationships between GPU parameters and pneumatic device actuation events, produced water storage tank vent flows and flow compositions, and parameters most contributing to the magnitude and frequency of these fugitive methane emissions. Measurements, considering data from a 72hr period, produced PC emissions factors from 0.008 to 0.03 SCFH per device with an average device emitting 0.026 SCFH at the first site. The second site produced PC emissions factors spanning from 0.05 to 25.47 SCFH with an average device emitting 1.93 SCFH not including the 25.47 SCFH device, which was assumed to be malfunctioning. Two unique water tank emission measurements were made, 618 g CH4 per hour and 32.6 g CH4 per hour. On a water basis, the water tank emissions factors were 0.66 and 0.042 kg CH4 per bbl of water, respectively.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Use Passenger Vessel Emission Rates of Black Carbon and Nitrogen Oxides

This study quantified emission factors of black carbon (BC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) from 21 engines on in-use excursion vessels and ferries operating in California's San Francisco Bay, including EPA uncertified and Tier 1-4 engines and across engine operating modes. On average, ~60 fuel-based emission factors per engine were measured using a novel combination of exhaust plume capture combined with GPS location and speed data that can be more readily deployed than common portable emissions measurement systems. Here, BC and NO x emission factors (g kg -1 ) were lowest and least variable during fast cruising and highest during maneuvering and docked operation. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) reduced NO x emissions by ~80% when functional. However, elevated NO x emissions that exceeded corresponding exhaust standards were measured on most Tier 3 and Tier 4 engines sampled, which can be attributed to inactive SCR during frequent low engine load operation. In contrast, BC emissions exceeded the PM emission standard for only one engine, and SCR systems employed as a NO x reduction technology also reduced emitted BC. Using these measured emission factors to compare commuting options, we show that the CO 2 -equivalent emissions per passenger-kilometer are comparable when commuting by car and ferry, but BC and NO x emissions can be several to more than ten times larger when commuting by ferry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in European electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon prices

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies them to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017–2019. Based on the calculated electricity prices, standardized daily load shifts were simulated which indicated that carbon emissions increased for 8 of the 20 countries and by 2.1% on average. Thus, under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to carbon emissions increases, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. MEF-based load shifts reduced the mean resulting carbon emissions by 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to price-based load shifts. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. The Spearman correlation coefficient between carbon intensity and marginal cost along the German merit order substantially increased with increasing carbon price. The coefficients were -0.13 for the 2019 carbon price of 24.9 €/t, 0 for 42.6 €/t, and 0.4 for 100.0 €/t. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Methane Emissions Model to Assess Fuel Recovery Potential at Gas Well Sites Using On Site Compression

The U.S. natural gas production and consumption has increased 85.5% since 2005 primarily due to the unconventional production methods of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Natural gas used as a fuel has a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint than coal and petroleum due to lower Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions when combusted. However, the “greener” benefit to natural gas may be negated by leaks in production and transmission systems. Methane (CH4), the primary hydrocarbon in natural gas, has an estimated Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 28-36 over 100 years, meaning it can absorb 28-36 more energy than CO2 which has a GWP of 1.0. Natural gas well sites are prone to methane emissions, or leaks and irregular gas releases, vented to atmosphere throughout production and transmission. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently granted West Virginia University (WVU) funding under agreement DE-FOA-0002005, to “Advance technologies to mitigate methane emissions and increase the efficiency of the natural gas transportation infrastructure”. As part of this funding WVU was tasked with identifying and quantifying sources of methane emissions at unconventional well sites, processing this data, and developing a system to recapture these emissions. A 0-D Simulink model was developed, utilizing standardized methodologies, data from previously conducted studies, as well as collected data from well sites in the Marcellus shale play region. The model was developed to predict emission rates from various components at natural gas well sites as well as the potential to utilize these emissions as fuel for the natural gas powered compressor engines on-site. This model was utilized to run high, medium, and low cases for four identified emission sources, engine size, pneumatic controller count, liquid level production which dictates tank emissions, and compressor packing vent emissions. Due to discrepancies in transient tank emission data, a high and low emission factor for tanks was used, resulting in two sets of 81 executed cases, and 162 unique cases of total site emissions and potential for fuel consumption. Each of the cases were run over 86,400 seconds at a 1 Hz, representative of a full 24 hour day of operation. The fuel consumption offset an average of 557% of fuel consumption on an energy density basis across all 81 cases with the high tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 2334%. The fuel consumption offset was an average of 82.9% for all 81 cases with the low tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 337%. This study highlights flaws in the use of publicly available methane number calculations to determine natural gas’s suitability as an engine fuel as well as the lack of public data for transient liquid storage tank emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing the Use of High- to Low-Cost Black Carbon and Carbon Dioxide Sensors for Characterizing On-Road Diesel Truck Emissions

The exhaust plume capture method is a commonly used approach to measure pollutants emitted by in-use heavy-duty diesel trucks. Lower cost sensors, if used in place of traditional research-grade analyzers, could enable wider application of this method, including use as a monitoring tool to identify high-emitting trucks that may warrant inspection and maintenance. However, low-cost sensors have for the most part only been evaluated under ambient conditions as opposed to source-influenced environments with rapidly changing pollutant concentrations. This study compared black carbon (BC) emission factors determined using different BC and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sensors that range in cost from $200 to $20,000. Controlled laboratory experiments show that traditional zero and span steady-state calibration checks are not robust indicators of sensor performance when sampling short duration concentration peaks. Fleet BC emission factor distributions measured at two locations at the Port of Oakland in California with 16 BC/CO 2 sensor pairs were similar, but unique sensor pairs identified different high-emitting trucks. At one location, the low-cost PP Systems SBA-5 agreed on the classification of 90% of the high emitters identified by the LI-COR LI-7000 when both were paired with the Magee Scientific AE33. Conversely, lower cost BC sensors when paired with the LI-7000 misclassified more than 50% of high emitters when compared to the AE33/LI-7000. Confidence in emission factor quantification and high-emitter identification improves with larger integrated peak areas of CO 2 and especially BC. This work highlights that sensor evaluation should be conducted under application-specific conditions, whether that be for ambient air monitoring or source characterization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Methane Emissions Rate Quantification and Alert System for Natural Gas Storage Wells and Fields

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and other critical stakeholders (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), state regulators, and industry) seek to more accurately characterize and quantify methane emissions from natural gas storage wells. These efforts will reduce uncertainties in estimates of these emissions in USEPA’s current Green House Gas Inventory (GHGI) under their Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP; EPA, 2016). Emission factors currently used to estimate methane emissions from gas storage wells are the same factors used for onshore natural gas production wells (USEPA, 2016). This study has developed a robust and representative dataset of emissions from disaggregated gas station wellhead components and related emission factors that will inform future enhancements to the GHGI and GHGRP. Extensive methane emissions measurements and meteorological data were collected from three active storage facilities representing two of the three types of storage facilities (i.e., depleted gas reservoir and salt cavern) to support development of emissions factors specifically for gas storage wells and associated components. Methane emissions were quantified from both above-ground components (e.g., pipe fittings and valves) and seepage from the ground surface in proximity to gas storage wellheads.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗
NASA NTRS1982

Sources of atmospheric ammonia

The information available on factors that influence emissions from the principal societal sources of ammonia to the atmosphere, namely combustion processes, volatilization of farm animal wastes, and volatilization of fertilizers, is reviewed. Emission factors are established for each major source of atmospheric ammonia. The factors are then multiplied by appropriate source characterization descriptors to obtain calculated fluxes of ammonia to the atmosphere on a state-by-state basis for the United States.

Harriss, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Emissions Accounting for Commercial Buildings

Buildings account for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US. In order to aid in better decisions that reduce emissions from building operations, accurate emissions accounting is important. This report reviews existing operational GHG emission accounting approaches, frameworks, and data sources. We present the results of testing emissions accounting frameworks and emission factors with example data from two buildings and provide recommendations while using an emissions accounting framework.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Corn Production in the U.S. Midwest under Future Climate Scenarios using machine learning approach

Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanism models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated, and time-consuming. Efficient predictions of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production are lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate current and future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in 12 U.S. Midwest at county scale under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s climate scenarios (RCP2.6. 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for years 2009-2100. Results show that future life-cycle GW, EU and AD impacts of corn production will increase under all four scenarios, with the worst environmental impacts shown under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Significant spatial variation were estimated to be 3.6, 29.9 and 1.8-folds under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 6.6, 152.9 and 1.6-folds under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of considering county-level life-cycle environmental impacts and the influences of climate change in future years to aid in developing potential adaptation and mitigation programs and policies.

Machine learning, climate change, projections, env↗