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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Learning nonlinear operators in latent spaces for real-time predictions of complex dynamics in physical systems

Abstract Predicting complex dynamics in physical applications governed by partial differential equations in real-time is nearly impossible with traditional numerical simulations due to high computational cost. Neural operators offer a solution by approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional Banach spaces, yet their performance degrades with system size and complexity. We propose an approach for learning neural operators in latent spaces, facilitating real-time predictions for highly nonlinear and multiscale systems on high-dimensional domains. Our method utilizes the deep operator network architecture on a low-dimensional latent space to efficiently approximate underlying operators. Demonstrations on material fracture, fluid flow prediction, and climate modeling highlight superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods. Notably, our approach enables approximating large-scale atmospheric flows with millions of degrees, enhancing weather and climate forecasts. Here we show that the proposed approach enables real-time predictions that can facilitate decision-making for a wide range of applications in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deeply Rooted: Evaluating Plant Rooting Depth as a Means for Enhanced Soil Carbon Sequestration (Full Technical Report)

Soils store three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere, but are not at capacity, and enhanced soil C storage is considered an essential strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Agricultural soils have experienced substantial C loss in the past century due to poor agricultural practices and erosion. A shift towards deep-rooting crops and low-impact soil management could potentially increase long-term sequestration of C fixed by plants and stored in their root tissues, particularly for crops that have naturally deep root systems (>1 meter). A substantial amount of the CO 2 taken up by plants is allocated to their root systems, and because C deposited in deep soil layers has a longer residence time (up to millennia, in contrast to C deposited in topsoils), C increases at depth may have better long-term C sequestration potential than topsoils. However, the accrual, turnover, and stabilization of C in subsoils is a critical knowledge gap. We investigated a deeply rooted plant, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), as a means of increasing carbon stocks in marginal and agricultural soils. We hypothesized that deep (>30 cm) SOC stocks would be greater under bioenergy crops relative to stocks under shallow-rooted conventional crop cover. To test this hypothesis, we compared soil depth profiles beneath deeply rooted switchgrass (cultivated for 4-30 years) and paired shallowrooted annual controls. We studied 12 field sites, 3 that were collected in 2018 before the start of the project as part a Department of Energy (DOE) Sustainable Biofuels study, and 9 that we collected in 2019 on a national field sampling campaign across the eastern US. In our publication from the 2018 study, which was written in collaboration with the LLNL Soil Microbiome Scientific Focus Area (SFA), we found that C stocks increased under switchgrass, but that the increases were dependent on soil texture. In the 2019 study, we found that carbon accrual tended to occur most consistently in low C soil in the southern US, which could indicate that perennial grasses may be a viable strategy to increase SOC in marginals soils in this region. We have published two studies from the 2019 sampling campaign thus far, we measured microbial growth parameters that will aid in modeling subsoil carbon cycling, and we found that switchgrass appears to move water upward in the soil profile and could promote drought tolerance, which a phenomenon commonly performed by trees known as ‘hydraulic redistribution;’ our study is the first to show this can occur in deep-rooted grasses. Finally, we published a modeling paper in collaboration with the LLNL Soil Microbiome SFA, where we found that poorly crystalline minerals are abundant and strongly correlated with organic C in geographically limited zones with enhanced weathering rates. Our results will inform technological development in the agricultural carbon sequestration sector as well as future negative emissions policies.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Technology Applications on US Mine Land: Technical Analysis

As the United States transitions toward a clean energy economy, an opportunity exists for redeveloping the more than 17,000 mine land sites located across the nation with clean energy technologies, which have a combined potential for generating more than 85 GW of clean electricity. This report provides an overview of the potential of demonstrating and deploying clean energy projects on current and former mine land. Clean energy project refers to a project that demonstrates one or more of the following technologies: solar; microgrids; geothermal; direct air capture; fossil-fueled electricity generation with carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration; energy storage, including pumped storage hydropower and compressed air energy storage; and advanced nuclear technologies. The report discusses the following technologies and their potential for creating jobs and generating tax revenue that would result in direct and indirect benefits to the local economy: Solar photovoltaics (PV) is being developed on current and former mine land in various parts of the world, including the United States. This approach is attractive because it requires limited infrastructure investment and would utilize the bare surfaces of mines and tailing ponds. Solar resource availability may be greater in the southern regions, including the Interior and Appalachian Basins and the southwestern United States. However, since some mine land sites include areas of significant change in elevation, the deployment of PV on mine land may require sophisticated planning to account for shading and irradiance, or may require regrading of the areas. PV does not create significant environmental risks and generally does not face public resistance; Geothermal systems are often spatially and genetically associated with ore deposits, and in some cases, they have been discovered while in search for epithermal mineral resources. Numerous diverse geothermal applications have been employed at mine land around the world, including power generation, mineral extraction from geothermal brines, process heating, direct use for other mining operations, and direct use for non-mining operations and subsurface energy storage, including geothermal heat pumps. Case studies highlighting these applications provide key lessons relating to identifying drivers and barriers to geothermal resource deployment and can be used to create screening tools for identifying the types and locations of mine land most amenable to utilizing geothermal resources; Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration technologies include direct air capture (DAC) and enhanced weathering. DAC technologies include air contactors, regeneration systems, and CO 2 compression systems. Captured CO 2 can be converted to valuable feedstocks or possibly injected into abandoned subsurface mines where it would be absorbed by alkaline rock waste and mine tailings or by the porous minerals along the walls of the mine. DAC systems can be coupled with energy sources such as wind, solar, grid, or geothermal. Many DAC systems require a source of water or steam; however, some are expected to be net producers of water. Local impacts of DAC systems are expected to be low, and are related to land footprint, material disposal, and upstream impacts of energy and material production; Compressed air energy storage is an established energy storage technology in salt caverns. It has the potential for implementation in underground mines by pressurizing and storing a large amount of air using electrical compressors when excess electricity is available. When a need for discharge emerges, the air is used to spin turbines and produce the necessary volume of electricity. Abandoned or unused mine openings, including shafts, adits, access tunnels, and mined workings of any orientation, offer potential for vast amounts of compressed air energy storage if the site characteristics meet operational requirements; Pumped hydropower storage can be implemented in surface and subsurface mines. In surface mine applications, both reservoirs may be located in a mine pit or artificial reservoirs made of excavated materials. In subsurface mines, the lower reservoir may be implemented by waterproofing and flooding mine shafts and tunnels. The water is then pumped from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir during periods of low load and high production, and it is discharged through the turbines during periods of peak demand. The potential environmental damages associated with acidity of mine water or the presence of toxic chemicals incentivizes the development of closed-loop technologies, in which water circulates inside the pumped hydropower facility without being discharged into the external water basins; Advanced nuclear energy technologies include small modular reactors, which can be deployed locally to produce electricity and heat. Such units require seismic stability and a supply of cooling water, but population constraints may exist in some areas. Therefore, remote mine land could represent an optimal location for siting advanced nuclear energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phytoremediation potential of Nerium oleander and Salix alba for heavy metal removal in rock-amended soils: a natural and cost-effective approach

Enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of ground rock is a competitive carbon removal strategy. Adoption of this technology at a meaningful scale requires a systematic assessment of its long-term feasibility, especially with regard to soil quality from the application of rock amendments that contain varying levels of heavy metal (loid)s (HM) such as Cu, Ni, Cr, Co, and Pb. The potential accumulation of these metal (loid)s could be an unintended consequence of repeated large-scale EW applications, necessitating careful evaluation for use in croplands. This study explores the idea of using phytoremediation as a natural, low-cost means of remediating rock-amended soils. Specifically, we examined the ability of Nerium oleander and Salix alba species to remove HM from rock-amended soils in their tissues (i.e., leaves, stems, and roots). In this study, the relative abundance of HM accumulation in hyperaccumulator plants followed the order: Si > Rb > Cu > Sn > Cr > Cd > Pb > Ni > Mo > Co > As > Sb > Se > Cs. Our results indicate that HM accumulation in soils treated with rock were significantly below permissible limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Further, in reasonable amounts, some of these HM serve as essential micronutrients required by plants. In fact, we found increased growth and higher biomass for both plants under rock application than without. We further found a significant uptake of most HM in rock-amended soils planted with S. alba. Comparatively, uptake of certain HM like Ni, Mo, Cs, Pb and Cu was relatively higher in the roots of N. oleander. In contrast to N. oleander, S. alba accumulated higher levels of HM in its stems and leaves than in its roots. Interestingly, 31–35% weathering of metabasalt (applied rock) was observed across plant types over a 5-month period. Overall, we conclude that S. alba has a greater potential for phytoremediation in rock-amended soils, although both plants may be useful in remediating soils with varying levels and types of contamination.

Ibrahim, Naira [Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS (↗
DOE OSTI2025

A sequential Attacker-Defender game for distribution systems resilience enhancement against extreme weather events

Improving distribution system resilience against frequent extreme weather events is important for reliable power system operations. Especially when dealing with events such as hurricanes that have short-term predictions, proactive pre-event preparedness plays a vital role in system resilience performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to construct pre-event resource allocation plans for system operators to cope with upcoming threats through a sequential attacker-defender game framework. The sequential attacker-defender game is designed to model the interaction between the extreme weather and the system operator. In each round of the game, the attacker and the defender sequentially update their current strategies by accounting for the opponent’s action set. The attacker model is formulated as a bi-level problem to identify the severe outage scenarios, and the defender model is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem to determine the allocation of restoration resources including mobile responsive resources and repair crews. Two scale-reduction strategies are proposed to ensure the scalability of the game scheme. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus and a 7149-node practical utility system validate the effectiveness of the proposed sequential game and the efficiency of the scale-reduction strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidation and Associated Pore Structure Modification During Experimental Alteration of Granite

Weathering plays a crucial role in a number of environmental processes, and the microstructure and evolution of multi-scale pore space is a critically important factor in the weathering of geological formations. In igneous rocks the infiltration of meteoric water into initially relatively dry material can cause the rock to begin to disaggregate, increasing porosity and surface area, and allowing further disaggregation and weathering to occur. These processes, in turn, allow biota to colonize the rock, further enhancing the weathering rate. In some igneous rocks this may be driven by oxidation of primary minerals. One such mineral, biotite, has been repeatedly mentioned as a cause of cracking during oxidation. However, the scale-dependence of the processes by which this occurs are poorly understood. We cannot, therefore, accurately extrapolate laboratory reaction rates to the field in predictive numerical models. In order to better understand the effects of oxidation and test the hypothesis that fracture and disaggregation are initiated by swelling of oxidizing biotites, we reacted granite cores in a selenic acid-rich aqueous solution at 200°C for up to 438 days. Elevated temperatures and selenic acid were used to provide relatively fast reaction rates and highly oxidizing conditions in sealed reaction vessels. These experiments were analyzed using a combination of imaging, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and small- and ultra-small angle neutron scattering to interrogate porosity and microfracture formation. The experimental results show little observable biotite swelling, but significant transport and growth of iron oxides and/or clays along grain boundaries throughout the sample. Significant increases in porosity were also observed at the sample rim, likely associated with feldspar alteration. Fractures and transport were observed throughout the core, suggesting that stresses due to crystallization pressures caused by the growing iron phases may be the initiating factors in granite weathering, possibly followed by biotite swelling after sufficient permeability is achieved.

Anovitz, Lawrence M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems’ Extreme Weather Resilience

We present scalable stochastic optimization approaches for improving power systems’ resilience to extreme weather events. We consider both proactive redispatch and transmission line hardening as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather, resulting in large-scale stochastic linear programs (LPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). We solve these stochastic optimization problems with progressive hedging (PH), a parallel, scenario-based decomposition algorithm. Our computational experiments indicate that our proposed method for enhancing power system resilience can provide high-quality solutions efficiently. With up to 128 scenarios on a 2,000-bus network, the operations (redispatch) and investment (hardening) resilience problems can be solved in approximately 6 min and 2 h of wall-clock time, respectively. Additionally, we solve the investment problems with up to 512 scenarios, demonstrating that the approach scales very well with the number of scenarios. Moreover, the method produces high quality solutions that result in statistically significant reductions in expected load shed. Our proposed approach can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or a combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling Sustainable Biochar Research & Commercialization for Agriculture & Conservation: A Summary from a Stakeholder Convening

Biochar is a carbon-rich substance with the potential to increase soil carbon sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve soil health. When used as part of soil health management systems, biochar can provide multiple synergistic benefits for the agricultural sector and society, while also supporting the production of renewable, climate-neutral biofuels. Establishing a pyrolysis biochar bioenergy industry (PBBI) is necessary to harness the environmental benefits of biochar. To galvanize the necessary coordination to support a PBBI, the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research (FFAR), the National Center for Appropriate Technology (NCAT), and American Farmland Trust (AFT) co-hosted a virtual convening event on biochar research and commercialization in March 2022. Participants represented a diverse set of stakeholders, including biochar producers, agricultural producers, and members of nonprofit, industry and government agencies. This whitepaper offers a summary of the convening, as well as insights from subsequent stakeholder engagement. Sustainably sourced, fit-for-purpose biochar can be a powerful tool in the soil health management systems and climate-smart toolbox, with decades of research supporting the soil, environment, production, and climate benefits. However, because biochar represents a range of feedstocks, processes and products, there is a critical need to: • Coordinate efforts to characterize and test the application of biochar types across locations with diverse soil and management conditions • Address research and decision-support gaps • Support the growing industry These objectives can be addressed or advanced through a coordinated strategy. To support establishment of this strategy, the convening participants identified key gaps in implementation and research. The experiences of foresters, ranchers, and farmers already using biochar, some of whom participated in the convening, helped inform priorities. Key gaps include: • Practical, applied on-farm research • Supporting management for agricultural productivity • Maximum benefits for conservation • Decision support • Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Quantification of climate mitigation potential Existing research gaps include: • Potential synergies among biochar, soil organic matter, and enhanced rock weathering • Development of new storage reservoirs for biochar in industrial products Convening participants further provided next steps for rapidly developing a PBBI to produce sustainable, fit-for-purpose biochars that increase soil health and mitigate climate change. Participants also stressed the need for actionable, coordinated, large-scale research relevant to commercial production in the next five years. To have a chance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we need an array of tools that would aid in mitigation; a coordinated strategy to enable biochar to be an effective tool in the climate-smart toolbox must be created; We cannot wait 50 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A numerical simulation of CCN impacts on weather modification efficiency

Aerosols affect development of clouds and precipitation by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). Considering the dramatically changing ambient aerosol concentration, it is important to examine the potential “side effect” of aerosol pollution on precipitation enhancement by weather modification. In this study, the cloud seeding was performed on a precipitation event in Beijing in the summer of 2008, which is simulated by the NSSL two-moment cloud scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivity tests were conducted by modifying the ambient aerosol concentration and the ice crystal seeding amount to investigate the cloud seeding efficacy in different CCN concentration scenarios. There was a slight difference in the precipitation distribution between the simulations with two ambient CCN concentrations: the northern precipitation center in polluted scenario was weaker and the southern center was stronger. Compared with normal CCN scenario, the cloud liquid water mass and ice crystal mass in the severe pollution scenario is larger, and the total contents of snow and graupel were not sensitive to the CCN concentration. With the same amount of man-made ice crystals seeding, the precipitation enhancement was quite different under different CCN conditions. The higher the CCN concentration usually leads to stronger precipitation suppression. As CCN concentration increase, the deposition growth of snow, auto-conversion and accretion of ice crystals to snow were weakened, as well as the conversion of melting snow and graupel into rainwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Landscape History Shapes Fluvial Chemistry, Ecosystem Carbon Balance, and Potential Trajectories of Future Change

Intensifying permafrost thaw alters carbon cycling by mobilizing large amounts of terrestrial substrate into aquatic ecosystems. Yet, few studies have measured aquatic carbon fluxes and constrained drivers of ecosystem carbon balance across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, we characterized hydrochemical and landscape controls on fluvial carbon cycling, quantified fluvial carbon fluxes, and estimated fluvial contributions to ecosystem carbon balance across 33 watersheds in four ecoregions in the continuous permafrost zone of the western Canadian Arctic: unglaciated uplands, ice-rich moraine, and organic-rich lowlands and till plains. Major ions, stable isotopes, and carbon speciation and fluxes revealed patterns in carbon cycling across ecoregions defined by terrain relief and accumulation of organics. In previously unglaciated mountainous watersheds, bicarbonate dominated carbon export (70% of total) due to chemical weathering of bedrock. In lowland watersheds, where soil organic carbon stores were largest, lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (50%) and efflux of biotic CO 2 (25%) dominated. In watersheds affected by thaw-induced mass wasting, erosion of ice-rich tills enhanced chemical weathering and increased particulate carbon fluxes by two orders of magnitude. From an ecosystem carbon balance perspective, fluvial carbon export in watersheds not affected by thaw-induced wasting was, on average, equivalent to 6–16% of estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Finally, in watersheds affected by thaw-induced wasting, fluvial carbon export approached 60% of NEE. Because future intensification of thermokarst activity will amplify fluvial carbon export, determining the fate of carbon across diverse northern landscapes is a priority for constraining trajectories of permafrost region ecosystem carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nanoscale Mg-Depleted Layers Slow Carbonation of Forsterite (Mg 2 SiO 4 ) When Water Is Limited

Passivation of silicate surfaces by accumulated reaction products is an obstacle to efficient CO 2 mineralization. In this study, we investigate a unique passivation effect during the carbonation of the basalt mineral forsterite (Mg 2 SiO 4 ) in humid supercritical CO 2 (50 °C, 90 bar). Using in situ high-pressure infrared spectroscopy, we demonstrate that dissolution of forsterite into a thin water film slows significantly after reaction for ˜24 h, even under far-from-equilibrium conditions. Further, 29 Si magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy detects a highly polymerized amorphous silica at this stage. On the basis of transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, we show that the silica is present as a Mg-depleted layer that is just 2–3 nm thick on the reacted forsterite particles. The decrease in the level of forsterite dissolution in the presence of an extraordinarily thin Mg-depleted layer can be strongly linked to properties of the thin fluid film at the surface, highlighting the importance of water during mineral carbonation. This study furthers our understanding of silicate mineral carbonation under select low-water, humidified fluid conditions relevant to basaltic geologic reservoirs, recovery of critical elements by carbonation of mafic ores, and sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 by enhanced rock weathering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Effects of Iron and Manganese Doping on the Carbonation of Brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ]

Brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ] is a promising sorbent for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its availability and low calcination temperatures. However, natural and synthetic brucites tend to contain metal impurities, such as iron or manganese, and how these impurities affect the interfacial chemical reactivity is uncertain. Here, in this study, the impact of low concentrations of iron and manganese impurities on the carbonation efficiency of Mg(OH) 2 was examined. Mg(OH) 2 with small amounts (1–5 mol %) of Fe and Mn was synthesized. The increasing substitution of Fe into Mg(OH) 2 was accompanied by the oxidation of Fe. The phase transformation sequence during the carbonation was found to be brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ] → amorphous magnesium carbonate (MgCO 3 ·nH 2 O) → nesquehonite (MgCO 3 ·3H 2 O), regardless of impurity concentration. Both the Fe- and Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 samples were more reactive than endmember Mg(OH) 2 , possibly due to their higher surface areas and lower stabilities. During carbonation, 3 mol % Fe- and Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 showed the highest reactivity. The variance in reactivity for Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 was less than that of Fe-doped Mg(OH) 2 . These results suggest that natural or industrial waste Mg(OH) 2 with less than 5 mol % Fe and Mn impurities may be targeted as more effective CDR sorbents than endmember Mg(OH) 2 .

Carbon dioxide removal↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗