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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble

Abstract The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K −1 ), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.

Norris, Jesse (ORCID:0000000289883326)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Random matrix theory of the isospectral twirling

We present a systematic construction of probes into the dynamics of isospectral ensembles of Hamiltonians by the notion of Isospectral twirling, expanding the scopes and methods of ref. [1]. The relevant ensembles of Hamiltonians are those defined by salient spectral probability distributions. The Gaussian Unitary Ensembles (GUE) describes a class of quantum chaotic Hamiltonians, while spectra corresponding to the Poisson and Gaussian Diagonal Ensemble (GDE) describe non chaotic, integrable dynamics. We compute the Isospectral twirling of several classes of important quantities in the analysis of quantum many-body systems: Frame potentials, Loschmidt Echos, OTOCs, Entanglement, Tripartite mutual information, coherence, distance to equilibrium states, work in quantum batteries and extension to CP-maps. Moreover, we perform averages in these ensembles by random matrix theory and show how these quantities clearly separate chaotic quantum dynamics from non chaotic ones.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Carbon Budget 1800-2018 Loss of Additional Sink Capacity and Present Transient Difference

A dataset of two global carbon fluxes: the loss of additional sink capacity (LASC) and present versus transient difference (PTD). The loss of additional sink capacity is the loss of indirect anthropogenic sink capacity in land ecosystems caused by the loss of ecosystems that can increase carbon in response to changing environments, primarily forests. The present transient difference refers to the direct anthropogenic flux in land ecosystems (from land cover and land use change) and the difference in that flux when calculated assuming "present day" (actually more like 1980) ecosystem carbon stocks or when calculated assuming transient carbon stocks (i.e. caused by environmental change). In this dataset, the LASC and PTD fluxes were calculated using the TRENDY ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; Sitch et al., 2024) following the methods described therein and in Obermeier et al. (2021). For further details see Obermeier et al. (2021), Friedlingstein et al. (2019), Sitch et al. (2024), and Walker et al. (2025). The dataset includes ensemble means and standard deviations for annual fluxes, fluxes cumulated annually over the whole time period, and cumulated since 1959. These data were originally collected to compare different approaches (DGVMs versus bookkeeping models) for estimating land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions (Obermeier et al. 2021). More recently, and similarly, these data were used to harmonize the estimates of the direct and indirect anthropogenic fluxes in the global carbon cycle and to recalculate the global carbon budget (Walker et al., 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3)

Abstract. Predicting future climate change over a region of complex terrain, such as the western United States (US), remains challenging due to the low resolution of global climate models (GCMs). Yet the climate extremes of recent years in this region, such as floods, wildfires, and drought, are likely to intensify further as climate warms, underscoring the need for high-quality and high-resolution predictions. Here, we present an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations over the western US from 1980–2100 at 9 km grid spacing, driven by 16 latest-generation GCMs. This dataset is titled the Western US Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3). We describe the challenges of producing WUS-D3, including GCM selection and technical issues, and we evaluate the simulations' realism by comparing historical results to temperature and precipitation observations. The future downscaled climate change signals are shaped in physically credible ways by the regional model's more realistic coastlines and topography. (1) The mean warming signals are heavily influenced by more realistic snowpack. (2) Mean precipitation changes are often consistent with wetting on the windward side of mountain complexes, as warmer, moister air masses are uplifted orographically during precipitation events. (3) There are large fractional precipitation increases on the lee side of mountain complexes, leading to potentially significant changes in water resources and ecology in these arid landscapes. (4) Increases in precipitation extremes are generally larger than in the GCMs, driven by locally intensified atmospheric updrafts tied to sharper, more realistic gradients in topography. (5) Changes in temperature extremes are different from what is expected by a shift in mean temperature and are shaped by local atmospheric dynamics and land surface feedbacks. Because of its high resolution, comprehensiveness, and representation of relevant physical processes, this dataset presents a unique opportunity to evaluate societally relevant future changes in western US climate.

Rahimi, Stefan (ORCID:0000000331884462)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the structural basis of targeted protein degradation by integrating molecular dynamics simulations with structural mass spectrometry

Targeted protein degradation (TPD) is a promising approach in drug discovery for degrading proteins implicated in diseases. A key step in this process is the formation of a ternary complex where a heterobifunctional molecule induces proximity of an E3 ligase to a protein of interest (POI), thus facilitating ubiquitin transfer to the POI. In this work, we characterize 3 steps in the TPD process. (1) We simulate the ternary complex formation of SMARCA2 bromodomain and VHL E3 ligase by combining hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry with weighted ensemble molecular dynamics (MD). (2) We characterize the conformational heterogeneity of the ternary complex using Hamiltonian replica exchange simulations and small-angle X-ray scattering. (3) We assess the ubiquitination of the POI in the context of the full Cullin-RING Ligase, confirming experimental ubiquitinomics results. Differences in degradation efficiency can be explained by the proximity of lysine residues on the POI relative to ubiquitin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning of accurate force field of ferroelectric HfO 2

The discovery of ferroelectricity in HfO 2 -based thin films opens up new opportunities for using this silicon-compatible ferroelectric to realize low-power logic circuits and high-density nonvolatile memories. The functional performances of ferroelectrics are intimately related to their dynamic responses to external stimuli such as electric fields at finite temperatures. Molecular dynamics is an ideal technique for investigating dynamical processes on large length and time scales, though its applications to new materials are often hindered by the limited availability and accuracy of classical force fields. Here we present a deep neural network–based interatomic force field of HfO 2 learned from ab initio data using a concurrent learning procedure. The model potential is able to predict structural properties such as elastic constants, equation of states, phonon dispersion relationships, and phase transition barriers of various hafnia polymorphs with accuracy comparable with density functional theory calculations. Here, the validity of this model potential is further confirmed by the reproduction of experimental sequences of temperature-driven ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transitions of HfO 2 with isobaric-isothermal ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. We suggest a general approach to extend the model potential of HfO 2 to related material systems including dopants and defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disordered interfaces of alkaline aluminate salt hydrates provide glimpses of Al 3+ coordination changes

Hypothesis: The precipitation and dissolution of aluminum-bearing mineral phases in aqueous systems often proceed via changes in both aluminum coordination number and connectivity, complicating molecular-scale interpretation of the transformation mechanism. Here, the thermally induced transformation of crystalline sodium aluminum salt hydrate, a phase comprised of monomeric octahedrally coordinated aluminate which is of relevance to industrial aluminum processing, has been studied. Because intermediate aluminum coordination states during melting have not previously been detected, it is hypothesized that the transition to lower coordinated aluminum ions occurs within a highly disordered quasi-two-dimensional phase at the solid-solution interface. Experiments and simulations: In this work, in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman and 27 Al nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy were used to monitor the melting transition of nonasodium aluminate hydrate (NSA, Na 9 [Al(OH) 6 ] 2 ·3(OH)·6H 2 O). A mechanistic interpretation was developed based on complementary classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations including enhanced sampling. A reactive forcefield was developed to bridge speciation in the solution and in the solid phase. Findings: In contrast to classical dissolution, aluminum coordination change proceeds through a dynamically stabilized ensemble of intermediate states in a disordered layer at the solid-solution interface. In both melting and dissolution of NSA, octahedral, monomeric aluminum transition through an intermediate of pentahedral coordination. The intermediate dehydroxylates to form tetrahedral aluminate (Al(OH)$_4^–$) in the liquid phase. This coordination change is concomitant with a breaking of the ionic aluminate-sodium ion linkages. The solution phase Al(OH)$_4^–$ ions subsequently polymerize into polynuclear aluminate ions. However, there are some differences between bulk melting and interfacial dissolution, with the onset of the surface-controlled process occurring at a lower temperature (~30 °C) and the coordination change taking place more gradually as a function of temperature. This work to determine the local structure and dynamics of aluminum in the disordered layer provides a new basis to understand mechanisms controlling aluminum phase transformations in highly alkaline solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adjusting the Energy Profile for CH–O Interactions Leads to Improved Stability of RNA Stem-Loop Structures in MD Simulations

The role of ribonucleic acid (RNA) in biology continues to grow, but insight into important aspects of RNA behavior is lacking, such as dynamic structural ensembles in different environments, how flexibility is coupled to function, and how function might be modulated by small molecule binding. In the case of proteins, much progress in these areas has been made by complementing experiments with atomistic simulations, but RNA simulation methods and force fields are less mature. It remains challenging to generate stable RNA simulations, even for small systems where well-defined, thermostable structures have been established by experiments. Further many different aspects of RNA energetics have been adjusted in force fields, seeking improvements that are transferable across a variety of RNA structural motifs. In this work, the role of weak CH···O interactions is explored, which are ubiquitous in RNA structure but have received less attention in RNA force field development. By comparing data extracted from high-resolution RNA crystal structures to energy profiles from quantum mechanics and force field calculations, it is shown that CH···O interactions are overly repulsive in the widely used Amber RNA force fields. A simple, targeted adjustment of CH···O repulsion that leaves the remainder of the force field unchanged was developed. Then, the standard and modified force fields were tested using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with explicit water and salt, amassing over 300 μs of data for multiple RNA systems containing important features such as the presence of loops, base stacking interactions as well as canonical and noncanonical base pairing. In this work and others, standard force fields lead to reproducible unfolding of the NMR-based structures. Including a targeted CH···O adjustment in an otherwise identical protocol dramatically improves the outcome, leading to stable simulations for all RNA systems tested.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining the Robustness of Weakened Orographic Influence on Precipitation in Downscaled Climate Projections Over the Western US

Assessing local climate change impacts often requires downscaling coarse global climate model (GCM) output to finer resolution. Two main approaches exist: dynamical downscaling using high-resolution regional climate models, and statistical downscaling based on historical relationships between large-scale and local variables. In a recent analysis of five dynamically downscaled simulations over the western United States, Koszuta et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl107298) found that warming weakens orographic influence on winter precipitation, damping increases on windward slopes and amplifying them in rain-shadowed regions. Here we show that this effect is robust across seasons and multiple dynamically downscaled ensembles, and is more pronounced at higher model resolutions. However, it is absent in projections from a widely used statistical model (LOCA2), even when trained on high-resolution future simulations (LOCA2-Hybrid). This highlights a key limitation of many statistical downscaling methods: their preservation of parent GCM trends, which usually fail to capture emergent changes in orographic precipitation patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vegetation biogeography is a main source of uncertainty in modelling the land carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere exchanges a large amount of CO 2 with the atmosphere through photosynthesis and respiration, determining the magnitude of land carbon sink and consequently influencing the rate of global warming. The magnitudes of global photosynthesis and respiration, however, vary widely across models (100-200 PgC/year), constituting a key and persistent source of uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate modelling. Here, we argue that the uncertainty in the land carbon cycle modelling is largely attributable to the uncertainty in biogeography – the distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). Using an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), we find a strong dependence of total photosynthesis on total area for each PFT. The dependence allows us to reduce the spread of land carbon cycle estimates by ~75% using remote sensing-based PFT maps. We further find that 56 ± 21% of climate-driven changes in global photosynthesis modelled by DGVMs are caused by changes in PFT distribution in the last two decades. Our study identifies vegetation biogeography as a main controlling factor of uncertainty in land carbon cycle modelling and highlights the importance of biogeography-climate interactions in carbon cycle and climate studies.

Zhao, Ruiying [National Univ. of Singapore (Singap↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-Kasha fluorescence of pyrene emerges from a dynamic equilibrium between excited states

Pyrene fluorescence after a high-energy electronic excitation exhibits a prominent band shoulder not present after excitation at low energies. The standard assignment of this shoulder as a non-Kasha emission from the second-excited state (S 2 ) has been recently questioned. To elucidate this issue, we simulated the fluorescence of pyrene using two different theoretical approaches based on vertical convolution and nonadiabatic dynamics with nuclear ensembles. To conduct the necessary nonadiabatic dynamics simulations with high-lying electronic states and deal with fluorescence timescales of about 100 ns of this large molecule, we developed new computational protocols. The results from both approaches confirm that the band shoulder is, in fact, due to S 2 emission. We show that the non-Kasha behavior is a dynamic-equilibrium effect not caused by a metastable S 2 minimum. However, it requires considerable vibrational energy, which can only be achieved in collisionless regimes after transitions into highly excited states. This strict condition explains why the S 2 emission was not observed in some experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computing Free Energies with Fluctuation Relations on Quantum Computers

As a central thermodynamic property, free energy enables the calculation of virtually any equilibrium property of a physical system, allowing for the construction of phase diagrams and predictions about transport, chemical reactions, and biological processes. Thus, methods for efficiently computing free energies, which in general is a difficult problem, are of great interest to broad areas of physics and the natural sciences. The majority of techniques for computing free energies target classical systems, leaving the computation of free energies in quantum systems less explored. Recently developed fluctuation relations enable the computation of free energy differences in quantum systems from an ensemble of dynamic simulations. While performing such simulations is exponentially hard on classical computers, quantum computers can efficiently simulate the dynamics of quantum systems. Here, we present an algorithm utilizing a fluctuation relation known as the Jarzynski equality to approximate free energy differences of quantum systems on a quantum computer. In this work we discuss under which conditions our approximation becomes exact, and under which conditions it serves as a strict upper bound. Furthermore, we successfully demonstrate a proof of concept of our algorithm using the transverse field Ising model on a real quantum processor. As quantum hardware continues to improve, we anticipate that our algorithm will enable computation of free energy differences for a wide range of quantum systems useful across the natural sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Oil Production in Oleaginous Yeast by Cell-Wide Measurements and Genome-Based Models (Final Report)

The work funded under this DOE genomics grant focused on characterizing, modifying and developing genetic engineering tools for the then very promising but under-characterized oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica. To-date, all biodiesel production facilities rely on vegetable oils and animal fats as feedstocks, which are very limited. Nature, on the other hand, is very well equipped for making carbohydrates, which are very plentiful throughout the world and rather well distributed in various forms. While numerous (biochemical and thermochemical) technologies exist presently for carbohydrate conversion to alcohols, there is none available for the cost-efficient production of lipids from carbohydrate feedstocks. Such a technology would have wide-ranging implications in land use, renewable resource utilization and production of transportation fuels with minimal carbon footprint. The global research objectives of this award were to develop tools for cell-wide measurement of metabolites and lipids that, along with transcriptional data, will allow the construction of genome-scale metabolic models, as well as models of transcriptional regulation, that will guide the further metabolic engineering of Yarrowia lipolytica. To achieve these goals, a very strong international and diverse team consisting of research groups at MIT, UCLA, PNNL and Chalmers University was put together, whose specific goals, achievements and breakthroughs are included in this report.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Infinite neural network quantum states: entanglement and training dynamics

We study infinite limits of neural network quantum states (∞-NNQS), which exhibit representation power through ensemble statistics, and also tractable gradient descent dynamics. Ensemble averages of entanglement entropies are expressed in terms of neural network correlators, and architectures that exhibit volume-law entanglement are presented. The analytic calculations of entanglement entropy bound are tractable because the ensemble statistics are simplified in the Gaussian process limit. A general framework is developed for studying the gradient descent dynamics of neural network quantum states (NNQS), using a quantum state neural tangent kernel (QS-NTK). For ∞-NNQS the training dynamics is simplified, since the QS-NTK becomes deterministic and constant. An analytic solution is derived for quantum state supervised learning, which allows an ∞-NNQS to recover any target wavefunction. Numerical experiments on finite and infinite NNQS in the transverse field Ising model and Fermi Hubbard model demonstrate excellent agreement with theory. ∞-NNQS opens up new opportunities for studying entanglement and training dynamics in other physics applications, such as in finding ground states.

quantum state supervised learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing many-body dynamics in a two-dimensional dipolar spin ensemble

Abstract The most direct approach for characterizing the quantum dynamics of a strongly interacting system is to measure the time evolution of its full many-body state. Despite the conceptual simplicity of this approach, it quickly becomes intractable as the system size grows. An alternate approach is to think of the many-body dynamics as generating noise, which can be measured by the decoherence of a probe qubit. Here we investigate what the decoherence dynamics of such a probe tells us about the many-body system. In particular, we utilize optically addressable probe spins to experimentally characterize both static and dynamical properties of strongly interacting magnetic dipoles. Our experimental platform consists of two types of spin defects in nitrogen delta-doped diamond: nitrogen-vacancy colour centres, which we use as probe spins, and a many-body ensemble of substitutional nitrogen impurities. We demonstrate that the many-body system’s dimensionality, dynamics and disorder are naturally encoded in the probe spins’ decoherence profile. Furthermore, we obtain direct control over the spectral properties of the many-body system, with potential applications in quantum sensing and simulation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗