Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “error bars”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

X-ray imaging and electron temperature evolution in laser-driven magnetic reconnection experiments at the national ignition facility

We present results from x-ray imaging of high-aspect-ratio magnetic reconnection experiments driven at the National Ignition Facility. Two parallel, self-magnetized, elongated laser-driven plumes are produced by tiling 40 laser beams. A magnetic reconnection layer is formed by the collision of the plumes. A gated x-ray framing pinhole camera with micro-channel plate detector produces multiple images through various filters of the formation and evolution of both the plumes and current sheet. As the diagnostic integrates plasma self-emission along the line of sight, two-dimensional electron temperature maps ⟨Te⟩Y are constructed by taking the ratio of intensity of these images obtained with different filters. The plumes have a characteristic temperature ⟨Te⟩Y=240 ± 20 eV at 2 ns after the initial laser irradiation and exhibit a slow cooling up to 4 ns. The reconnection layer forms at 3 ns with a temperature ⟨Te⟩Y=280 ± 50 eV as the result of the collision of the plumes. The error bars of the plumes and current sheet temperatures separate at 4 ns, showing the heating of the current sheet from colder inflows. Using a semi-analytical model, we survey various heating mechanisms in the current sheet. We find that reconnection energy conversion would dominate at low density (ne≲7×1018 cm−3) and electron-ion collisional drag at high-density (≳1019 cm−3).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-n Rydberg transition spectroscopy for heavy impurity transport studies in W7-X (invited)

Here, we present a novel spectroscopy approach to investigate impurity transport by analyzing line-radiation following high-n Rydberg transitions. While high-n Rydberg states of impurity ions are unlikely to be populated via impact excitation, they can be accessed by charge exchange (CX) reactions along the neutral beams in high-temperature plasmas. Hence, localized radiation of highly ionized impurities, free of passive contributions, can be observed at multiple wavelengths in the visible range. For the analysis and modeling of the observed Rydberg transitions, a technique for calculating effective emission coefficients is presented that can well reproduce the energy dependence seen in datasets available on the OPEN-ADAS database. By using the rate coefficients and comparing modeling results with the new high-n Rydberg CX measurements, impurity transport coefficients are determined with well-documented 2σ confidence intervals for the first time. This demonstrates that high-n Rydberg spectroscopy provides important constraints on the determination of impurity transport coefficients. By additionally considering Bolometer measurements, which provide constraints on the overall impurity emissivity and, therefore, impurity densities, error bars can be reduced even further.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shock Hugoniot calculations using on-the-fly machine learned force fields with ab initio accuracy

We present a framework for computing the shock Hugoniot using on-the-fly machine learned force field (MLFF) molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we employ an MLFF model based on the kernel method and Bayesian linear regression to compute the free energy, atomic forces, and pressure, in conjunction with a linear regression model between the internal and free energies to compute the internal energy, with all training data generated from Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT). We verify the accuracy of the formalism by comparing the Hugoniot for carbon with recent Kohn–Sham DFT results in the literature. In so doing, we demonstrate that Kohn–Sham calculations for the Hugoniot can be accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude, while retaining ab initio accuracy. We apply this framework to calculate the Hugoniots of 14 materials in the FPEOS database, comprising 9 single elements and 5 compounds, between temperatures of 10 kK and 2 MK. We find good agreement with first principles results in the literature while providing tighter error bars. In addition, we confirm that the inter-element interaction in compounds decreases with temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accuracy of Kohn–Sham density functional theory for warm- and hot-dense matter equation of state

We study the accuracy of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) for warm- and hot-dense matter (WDM and HDM). Specifically, considering a wide range of systems, we perform accurate ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with temperature-independent local/semilocal density functionals to determine the equations of state at compression ratios of 3x–7x and temperatures near 1 MK. We find very good agreement with path integral Monte Carlo benchmarks, while having significantly smaller error bars and smoother data, demonstrating the accuracy of DFT for the study of WDM and HDM at such conditions. In addition, using a Δ-machine learned force field scheme, we confirm that the DFT results are insensitive to the choice of exchange-correlation functional, whether local, semilocal, or nonlocal.

Suryanarayana, Phanish (ORCID:0000000151720049)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 constraints on extended cosmological models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model, ΛCDM, and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from the Planck mission. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1. To test the dependence of our results on non-ACT data, we also explore combinations replacing Planck with WMAP and DESI with BOSS, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index dn s /d ln k = 0.0062 ± 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N eff = 2.86 ± 0.13, which combined with astrophysical measurements of primordial helium and deuterium abundances becomes N eff = 2.89 ± 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (∑m ν < 0.089 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N idr < 0.134), or for early-universe variation of fundamental constants, including the fine-structure constant (α EM /α EM,0 = 1.0043 ± 0.0017) and the electron mass (m e /m e,0 = 1.0063 ± 0.0056). Our data are consistent with standard big bang nucleosynthesis (we find Y p = 0.2312 ± 0.0092), the COBE/FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature (we find T CMB = 2.698 ± 0.016 K), a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant (w = -0.986 ± 0.025), and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity (γ = 0.663 ± 0.052). We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline ΛCDM model. In fits to models invoking early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or an arbitrary modified recombination history, we find H 0 = 69.9 +0.8 -1.5 , 69.1 ± 0.5, or 69.6 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc, respectively; using BOSS instead of DESI BAO data reduces the central values of these constraints by 1–1.5 km/s/Mpc while only slightly increasing the error bars. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored over ΛCDM by our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toroidal injection angle dependence of EC assisted plasma initiation at DIII-D

An experimental scan of the electron cyclotron waves (EC) toroidal injection angle in plasma breakdown is performed at the DIII-D tokamak. The second harmonic, extraordinary mode EC is used for the study. The dependence of n e and T e on the EC injection angle cannot be conclusively drawn from this study due to the large error bars in the n e and T e measurements. On the other hand, high T e data points are observed in some discharges which can be explained by nonlinear heating. The D α emission measurement shows a clear relation between the breakdown time and the injection angle. An experimental investigation of the cause of the dependence of breakdown delay on the EC injection angle suggests that when the injection angle is oblique, the EC heating after the reflection at the inboard wall may become ineffective and cause the breakdown delay even when the EC heating before and directly upon injection remains effective. A preliminary run of the heat and transport balance code DYON indicates that the obtained dataset is suitable for a quantitative validation of EC absorption models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting the dark matter-baryon abundance ratio

We discuss relaxation solutions to the dark matter-baryon coincidence problem in the context of QCD axion dark matter. In relaxation solutions, a moduli dynamically adjusts the mass of dark matter and baryons until their energy densities are 𝒪⁡(1) the same. Because the QCD axion is heavily connected to QCD, scanning the QCD axion mass inherently also scans the proton mass. In the context of relaxation solutions, this implies that the ratio of dark matter to baryon abundances (Ω DM /Ω B ) is a ratio of beta functions showing that these models can only accommodate discrete values of ΩDM/ΩB thereby “predicting” the ratio of the dark matter to baryon abundances. The original composite axion model has only a single integer degree of freedom 𝑁, the size of the gauge group, and we show that when 𝑁 =8 the observed value of Ω DM /Ω B =5.36 is reproduced to within its percent level error bars. Novel tests of this model include more precise measurements of Ω DM /Ω B , a better lattice determination of the dependence of the proton mass on the high energy QCD gauge coupling, as well as more traditional tests such as fifth force experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electromagnetic observables of open-shell nuclei from coupled-cluster theory

Here we develop a new method to describe electromagnetic observables of open-shell nuclei with two nucleons outside a closed shell. This approach combines the equation-of-motion coupled-cluster method for such systems and the Lorentz integral transform technique, expanding the applicability of coupled-cluster theory for electromagnetic observables beyond closed-(sub)shell nuclei. To validate this new approach, we compute the non-energy-weighted dipole sum rule and the dipole polarizability of 16,24 ⁢O in both the closed-(sub)shell and the new equation-of-motion coupled-cluster frameworks, finding agreement within error bars. We then analyze the evolution of the dipole polarizability along the oxygen and calcium isotopic chains. Our predictions agree well with available experimental data and other available theoretical calculations for the closed-(sub)shell 16,22 ⁢O and the open-shell 18 O. In the calcium isotopes, we observe that our dipole polarizability predictions for open-shell nuclei are lower than those of closed-(sub)shell nuclei. We expect that our predictions for 24 O and 54,56 ⁢Ca will motivate future experimental studies at the drip line.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing

This paper presents the results of a systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using data collected during the first year of running the Dark Energy Survey experiment. The study uses Lambda cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) as the cosmological model and two-point correlation functions for the weak lensing (WL) analysis. The results in this paper show that, independent of the WL analysis, projection biases of more than 1 σ exist and are a function of the position of the true values of the parameters h , n s , Ω b , and Ω ν h 2 with respect to their prior probabilities. For cosmic shear, and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing, this study shows that the coverage probability of the 68.27% credible intervals ranges from as high as 93% to as low as 16% and that these credible intervals are inflated, on average, by 29% for cosmic shear and 20% for the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. The results of the study also show that, in six out of nine tested cases, the reduction in error bars obtained by transforming credible intervals into confidence intervals is equivalent to an increase in the amount of data by a factor of 3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electromagnetic radii of light nuclei from variational Monte Carlo calculations

We present variational Monte Carlo calculations of charge and magnetic radii in 𝐴 ≤ 10 nuclei. The calculations are based on the Norfolk two- and three-nucleon interactions, and associated one- and two-nucleon electromagnetic charge and current operators derived up to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order in the chiral expansion. The charge and magnetic radii are extracted from the respective form factors. We find that the charge radii are within 5% of the experimental values for the nuclei considered. For the magnetic radii, a comparison is available only with 3 H and 3 ⁢He electron scattering data that are affected by large error bars. We hope that our predictions foster an interest in precisely measuring magnetic radii of heavier systems.

lepton induced nuclear reactions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Correlating Cosmological Probes for Stage-IV Surveys

The next few years will be populated with Stage-IV cosmological surveys. This paper forecasts the cosmological information we expect to constrain using probes from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and CMB Stage-4 surveys. We explore the effectiveness of different large-scale-structure probes, including the power spectra of galaxy weak lensing, galaxy positions, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlation. We use correlated lognormal simulations with the expected redshift distribution, number density of galaxies, and noise levels of the LSST survey, as well as CMB-S4 lensing simulations with anticipated noise levels, to obtain the expected error bars of each of the probes. We investigate the constraining power of the cosmological parameters for the individual probes and their combinations in an idealized scenario, where we do not account for astrophysical and observational parameters such as galaxy bias variations and photometric redshift uncertainties.

Gibbins, Grace↗
NASA NTRS1971

Density accuracy from the accelerometer inflatable falling sphere.

Computed error bars are added to the upper-air density measurements of January 31, 1969, at Wallops Island, Virginia, reported by Faucher and Morrissey. A triaxial accelerometer-instrumented inflated falling sphere was used for the measurements. Bases for the computation are presented. The conclusions of Faucher and Morrissey are substantiated to about 100 km if comparable uncertainty in each of the five soundings reported is assumed.

Staffanson, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Studies of cluster X-ray sources, energy spectra for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters

Final Uhuru X-ray differential-energy spectra are presented for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters. Power-law and isothermal bremsstrahlung model spectra with low-energy cutoffs are given, and the energy-dependent Gaunt factor is calculated for the bremsstrahlung. The spectra, which are best fits to the Uhuru data between 2 and 10 keV, are compared with previous observations of these sources in the energy range from 0.1 to 100 keV. The problem of parameter estimation is discussed, error bars with 68% confidence are given for the independently determined slope and cutoff parameters, and the 68% confidence limits are plotted for the fitted spectral functions. The data for Perseus above 20 keV marginally favor the bremsstrahlung fit, those for Virgo between 0.25 and 1.0 keV clearly favor that curve, and those for Coma indicate a low-energy turnover or cutoff. Implications of such a cutoff are briefly discussed.

Kellogg, E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The abundance of deuterium relative to hydrogen in interstellar space

Copernicus satellite observations of the deuterium and hydrogen Lyman lines in the lines of sight to mu COl, gamma-2 Vel, alpha Cru AB, and alpha Vir AB are reported. Together with previously published data for beta Cen A, the results yield a value N(D)/N(H) of approximately 0.000018 (m.e.) or a total deuterium mass portion of approximately 0.000025. Values for all stars with their error bars are contained within a band ranging from 0.25 to 2.0 times the quoted mean ratio. These limits are probably representative of the region within 200 pc of the sun. The results for these stars are essentially independent of assumptions about the Doppler parameter describing the formation of the lines, although this value can be derived from the observations. The results are consistent with a maximum temperature of 6000 K for the lines of sight studied.

York, D. G.↗