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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

The development of explosions in axisymmetric ab initio core-collapse supernova simulations of 12–25 M{sub ⊙} STARS

We present four ab initio axisymmetric core-collapse supernova simulations initiated from 12, 15, 20, and 25 M{sub ⊙} zero-age main sequence progenitors. All of the simulations yield explosions and have been evolved for at least 1.2 s after core bounce and 1 s after material first becomes unbound. These simulations were computed with our Chimera code employing RbR spectral neutrino transport, special and general relativistic transport effects, and state-of-the-art neutrino interactions. Continuing the evolution beyond 1 s after core bounce allows the explosions to develop more fully and the processes involved in powering the explosions to become more clearly evident. We compute explosion energy estimates, including the negative gravitational binding energy of the stellar envelope outside the expanding shock, of 0.34, 0.88, 0.38, and 0.70 Bethe (B ≡ 10{sup 51} erg) and increasing at 0.03, 0.15, 0.19, and 0.52 B s{sup −1}, respectively, for the 12, 15, 20, and 25 M{sub ⊙} models at the endpoint of this report. We examine the growth of the explosion energy in our models through detailed analyses of the energy sources and flows. We discuss how the explosion energies may be subject to stochastic variations as exemplfied by the effect of the explosion geometry of the 20 M{sub ⊙} model in reducing its explosion energy. We compute the proto-neutron star masses and kick velocities. We compare our results for the explosion energies and ejected {sup 56}Ni masses against some observational standards despite the large error bars in both models and observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

( Hubble Space Telescope Hubble Space Telescope) proper motion (HSTPROMO) catalogs of galactic globular clusters. IV. Kinematic profiles and average masses of blue straggler stars

We make use of the Hubble Space Telescope proper-motion catalogs derived by Bellini et al. to produce the first radial velocity dispersion profiles σ(R) for blue straggler stars (BSSs) in Galactic globular clusters (GCs), as well as the first dynamical estimates for the average mass of the entire BSS population. We show that BSSs typically have lower velocity dispersions than stars with mass equal to the main-sequence turnoff mass, as one would expect for a more massive population of stars. Since GCs are expected to experience some degree of energy equipartition, we use the relation σ∝M{sup −η}, where η is related to the degree of energy equipartition, along with our velocity dispersion profiles to estimate BSS masses. We estimate η as a function of cluster relaxation from recent Monte Carlo cluster simulations by Bianchini et al. and then derive an average mass ratio M{sub BSS}/M{sub MSTO}=1.50±0.14 and an average mass M{sub BSS}=1.22±0.12 M {sub ⊙} from 598 BSSs across 19 GCs. The final error bars include any systematic errors that are random between different clusters, but not any potential biases inherent to our methodology. Our results are in good agreement with the average mass of M{sub BSS}=1.22±0.06 M {sub ⊙} for the 35 BSSs in Galactic GCs in the literature with properties that have allowed individual mass determination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Shock compression response of highly reactive Ni + Al multilayered thin foils

The shock-compression response of Ni + Al multilayered thin foils is investigated using laser-accelerated thin-foil plate-impact experiments over the pressure range of 2 to 11 GPa. The foils contain alternating Ni and Al layers (parallel but not flat) of nominally 50 nm bilayer spacing. The goal is to determine the equation of state and shock-induced reactivity of these highly reactive fully dense thin-foil materials. The laser-accelerated thin-foil impact set-up involved combined use of photon-doppler-velocimetry to monitor the acceleration and impact velocity of an aluminum flyer, and VISAR interferometry was used to monitor the back free-surface velocity of the impacted Ni + Al multilayered target. The shock-compression response of the Ni + Al target foils was determined using experimentally measured parameters and impedance matching approach, with error bars identified considering systematic and experimental errors. Meso-scale CTH shock simulations were performed using real imported microstructures of the cross-sections of the multilayered Ni + Al foils to compute the Hugoniot response (assuming no reaction) for correlation with their experimentally determined equation of state. It was observed that at particle velocities below ∼150 m/s, the experimentally determined equation of state trend matches the CTH-predicted inert response and is consistent with the observed unreacted state of the recovered Ni + Al target foils from this velocity regime. At higher particle velocities, the experimentally determined equation of state deviates from the CTH-predicted inert response. A complete and self-sustained reaction is also seen in targets recovered from experiments performed at these higher particle velocities. The deviation in the measured equation of state, to higher shock speeds and expanded volumes, combined with the observation of complete reaction in the recovered multilayered foils, confirmed via microstructure characterization, is indicative of the occurrence of shock-induced chemical reaction occurring in the time-scale of the high-pressure state. TEM characterization of recovered shock-compressed (unreacted) Ni + Al multilayered foils exhibits distinct features of constituent mixing revealing jetted layers and inter-mixed regions. These features were primarily observed in the proximity of the undulations present in the alternating layers of the Ni + Al starting foils, suggesting the important role of such instabilities in promoting shock-induced intermetallic-forming reactions in the fully dense highly exothermic multilayered thin foils.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bounds on the Rate-Dependent Plastic Flow of Tantalum up to 75 GPa

In this study we report on the continued development of thermodynamics-based analysis of shock waves propagation with the objective of extracting information related to materials strength at high strain rates and pressures. Building on previous results reported for peak stresses of 10 GPa and 25 GPa, we present a series of three-step gas-gun shock experiments designed to explore the pressure and strain rate dependence of plastic flow in polycrystalline tantalum. These experiments at nominal peak stresses of 50 GPa and 75 GPa show the irreversible deformation before pullback to be almost entirely confined to the shock loading, with negligible plastic relaxation on the post-shock plateau. We also add a reverse-ballistics shot at 25 GPa, which was designed to reveal the pullback response with negligible interference from free-surface effects. General thermodynamic considerations allow us to place bounds on the plastic behavior even for parts of the curve that change far too rapidly for the velocimetric time resolution of (conservatively) ~ 5 ns. To analyze the data, we found it necessary to substantially improve the interpolation/extrapolation scheme in order to improve its robustness, flexibility and range of applicability. We describe the new scheme based on splines, as well as an extension of free-surface corrections to the post-shock rarefaction waves. Reanalysis with the new scheme produces results essentially within the error bars previously reported, showing that the known systematic errors associated with free-surface effects are relatively inconsequential for determining thermodynamic paths.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical error analysis of SOLPS-ITER simulations of EAST

Abstract Plasma edge simulations with codes like SOLPS-ITER are widely employed to interpret fusion experiments. However, numerical errors appearing in such simulations are rarely investigated, despite their potential large impact on simulation results. These errors consist of the statistical error and the bias, both resulting from the finite number of employed EIRENE Monte Carlo particles and incomplete convergence, and the discretization error due to the finite resolution of the computational grids. In this contribution, the resulting numerical errors on simulations of pure deuterium and neon seeded H-mode EAST discharges are examined. The statistical error can be kept small compared to other numerical error contributions by averaging the plasma profiles. This allows investigating the bias and discretization errors using Richardson extrapolation. It is shown that grid refinement and the number of employed Monte Carlo particles have the largest influence on the result, in agreement with similar studies of an ITER deuterium case. For the first time, numerical error bars on the entire simulated target profiles are determined showing that the largest numerical error is 17.9%, mainly due to the plasma grid discretization. On top, also numerical errors on simulated neutral pressures are investigated in detail, for which the statistical error is dominant. The analysis demonstrates which setup is needed to keep numerical errors limited: the SOLPS-ITER averaging procedure should be employed including enough EIRENE particles, and the involved grids should be sufficiently refined to reduce discretization errors.

Boeyaert, Dieter (ORCID:0000000309208660)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

BAO from angular clustering: optimization and mitigation of theoretical systematics

Here, we study the methodology and potential theoretical systematics of measuring Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) using the angular correlation functions in tomographic bins. We calibrate and optimize the pipeline for the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 dataset using 1800 mocks. We compare the BAO fitting results obtained with three estimators: the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Profile Likelihood, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The fit results from the MLE are the least biased and their derived 1-$\sigma$ error bar are closest to the Gaussian distribution value after removing the extreme mocks with non-detected BAO signal. We show that incorrect assumptions in constructing the template, such as mismatches from the cosmology of the mocks or the underlying photo-$z$ errors, can lead to BAO angular shifts. We find that MLE is the method that best traces this systematic biases, allowing to recover the true angular distance values. In a real survey analysis, it may happen that the final data sample properties are slightly different from those of the mock catalog. We show that the effect on the mock covariance due to the sample differences can be corrected with the help of the Gaussian covariance matrix or more effectively using the eigenmode expansion of the mock covariance. In the eigenmode expansion, the eigenmodes are provided by some proxy covariance matrix. The eigenmode expansion is significantly less susceptible to statistical fluctuations relative to the direct measurements of the covariance matrix because of the number of free parameters is substantially reduced

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of the top-quark pair hadroproduction and a precise determination of the top-quark pole mass at the LHC *

In this study, we calculate the $t\bar{t}$ pQCD production cross-section at the NNLO and determine the top-quark pole mass from recent measurements at the LHC at the center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV to a high precision by applying the principle of maximum conformality (PMC). The PMC provides a systematic method that rigorously eliminates QCD renormalization scale ambiguities by summing the nonconformal $\beta$ contributions into the QCD coupling constant. The PMC predictions satisfy the requirements of renormalization group invariance, including renormalization scheme independence, and the PMC scales accurately reflect the virtuality of the underlying production subprocesses. By using the PMC, an improved prediction for the $t\bar{t}$ production cross-section is obtained without scale ambiguities, which in turn provides a precise value for the top-quark pole mass. Moreover, the prediction of PMC calculations that the magnitudes of higher-order PMC predictions are well within the error bars predicted from the known lower-order has been demonstrated for the top-quark pair production. The resulting determination of the top-quark pole mass, $m_t^{\rm{pole}}=172.5\pm1.4$ GeV, from the LHC measurement at $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV agrees with the current world average cited by the Particle Data Group (PDG). The PMC prediction provides an important high-precision test of the consistency of pQCD and the SM at $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV with previous LHC measurements at lower CM energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Reconstruction and Parameter Estimation with SPTpol Data

Here, we perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg 2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be ${A}_{\phi }=0.949\,\pm \,0.122$ using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist "bias hardening" or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A Φ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A Φ along with A L , the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A Φ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of Robustness to Setup and Range Uncertainties for Head and Neck Patients Treated With Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate the robustness of head and neck plans for treatment with intensity modulated proton therapy to range and setup errors, and to establish robustness parameters for the planning of future head and neck treatments. Methods and Materials: Ten patients previously treated were evaluated in terms of robustness to range and setup errors. Error bar dose distributions were generated for each plan, from which several metrics were extracted and used to define a robustness database of acceptable parameters over all analyzed plans. The patients were treated in sequentially delivered series, and plans were evaluated for both the first series and for the combined error over the whole treatment. To demonstrate the application of such a database in the head and neck, for 1 patient, an alternative treatment plan was generated using a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) approach and plans of differing numbers of fields. Results: The robustness database for the treatment of head and neck patients is presented. In an example case, comparison of single and multiple field plans against the database show clear improvements in robustness by using multiple fields. A comparison of sequentially delivered series and an SIB approach for this patient show both to be of comparable robustness, although the SIB approach shows a slightly greater sensitivity to uncertainties. Conclusions: A robustness database was created for the treatment of head and neck patients with intensity modulated proton therapy based on previous clinical experience. This will allow the identification of future plans that may benefit from alternative planning approaches to improve robustness.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: local credible intervals

ABSTRACT Until recently, mass-mapping techniques for weak gravitational lensing convergence reconstruction have lacked a principled statistical framework upon which to quantify reconstruction uncertainties, without making strong assumptions of Gaussianity. In previous work, we presented a sparse hierarchical Bayesian formalism for convergence reconstruction that addresses this shortcoming. Here, we draw on the concept of local credible intervals (cf. Bayesian error bars) as an extension of the uncertainty quantification techniques previously detailed. These uncertainty quantification techniques are benchmarked against those recovered via Px-MALA – a state-of-the-art proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We find that, typically, our recovered uncertainties are everywhere conservative (never underestimate the uncertainty, yet the approximation error is bounded above), of similar magnitude and highly correlated with those recovered via Px-MALA. Moreover, we demonstrate an increase in computational efficiency of $\mathcal {O}(10^6)$ when using our sparse Bayesian approach over MCMC techniques. This computational saving is critical for the application of Bayesian uncertainty quantification to large-scale stage IV surveys such as LSST and Euclid.

Price, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multiredshift limits on the 21 cm power spectrum from paper

The epoch of the reionization (EoR) power spectrum is expected to evolve strongly with redshift, and it is this variation with cosmic history that will allow us to begin to place constraints on the physics of reionization. The primary obstacle to the measurement of the EoR power spectrum is bright foreground emission. We present an analysis of observations from the Donald C. Backer Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER) telescope, which place new limits on the H i power spectrum over the redshift range of 7.5<z<10.5, extending previously published single-redshift results to cover the full range accessible to the instrument. To suppress foregrounds, we use filtering techniques that take advantage of the large instrumental bandwidth to isolate and suppress foreground leakage into the interesting regions of k-space. Our 500 hr integration is the longest such yet recorded and demonstrates this method to a dynamic range of 10{sup 4}. Power spectra at different points across the redshift range reveal the variable efficacy of the foreground isolation. Noise-limited measurements of Δ{sup 2} at k = 0.2 hr Mpc{sup −1} and z = 7.55 reach as low as (48 mK){sup 2} (1σ). We demonstrate that the size of the error bars in our power spectrum measurement as generated by a bootstrap method is consistent with the fluctuations due to thermal noise. Relative to this thermal noise, most spectra exhibit an excess of power at a few sigma. The likely sources of this excess include residual foreground leakage, particularly at the highest redshift, unflagged radio frequency interference, and calibration errors. We conclude by discussing data reduction improvements that promise to remove much of this excess.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Biases on cosmological parameter estimators from galaxy cluster number counts

Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) surveys are promising probes of cosmology — in particular for Dark Energy (DE) —, given their ability to find distant clusters and provide estimates for their mass. However, current SZ catalogs contain tens to hundreds of objects and maximum likelihood estimators may present biases for such sample sizes. In this work we study estimators from cluster abundance for some cosmological parameters, in particular the DE equation of state parameter w{sub 0}, the amplitude of density fluctuations σ{sub 8}, and the Dark Matter density parameter Ω{sub c}. We begin by deriving an unbinned likelihood for cluster number counts, showing that it is equivalent to the one commonly used in the literature. We use the Monte Carlo approach to determine the presence of bias using this likelihood and study its behavior with both the area and depth of the survey, and the number of cosmological parameters fitted. Our fiducial models are based on the South Pole Telescope (SPT) SZ survey. Assuming perfect knowledge of mass and redshift some estimators have non-negligible biases. For example, the bias of σ{sub 8} corresponds to about 40% of its statistical error bar when fitted together with Ω{sub c} and w{sub 0}. Including a SZ mass-observable relation decreases the relevance of the bias, for the typical sizes of current SZ surveys. Considering a joint likelihood for cluster abundance and the so-called ''distance priors'', we obtain that the biases are negligible compared to the statistical errors. However, we show that the biases from SZ estimators do not go away with increasing sample sizes and they may become the dominant source of error for an all sky survey at the SPT sensitivity. Finally, we compute the confidence regions for the cosmological parameters using Fisher matrix and profile likelihood approaches, showing that they are compatible with the Monte Carlo ones. The results of this work validate the use of the current maximum likelihood methods for present SZ surveys, but highlight the need for further studies for upcoming experiments. To perform the analyses of this work, we developed fast, accurate, and adaptable codes for cluster counts in the framework of the Numerical Cosmology Library.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The isobaric multiplet mass equation for A≤71 revisited

Accurate mass determination of short-lived nuclides by Penning-trap spectrometers and progress in the spectroscopy of proton-rich nuclei have triggered renewed interest in the isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME). The energy levels of the members of T=1/2,1,3/2, and 2 multiplets and the coefficients of the IMME are tabulated for A≤71. The new compilation is based on the most recent mass evaluation (AME2011) and it includes the experimental results on energies of the states evaluated up to end of 2011. Taking into account the error bars, a significant deviation from the quadratic form of the IMME for the A=9,35 quartets and the A=32 quintet is observed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗