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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Safety Performance of Airborne Separation: Preliminary Baseline Testing

The Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) study is a suite of Monte Carlo simulation experiments designed to analyze and quantify safety behavior of airborne separation. This paper presents results of preliminary baseline testing. The preliminary baseline scenario is designed to be very challenging, consisting of randomized routes in generic high-density airspace in which all aircraft are constrained to the same flight level. Sustained traffic density is varied from approximately 3 to 15 aircraft per 10,000 square miles, approximating up to about 5 times today s traffic density in a typical sector. Research at high traffic densities and at multiple flight levels are planned within the next two years. Basic safety metrics for aircraft separation are collected and analyzed. During the progression of experiments, various errors, uncertainties, delays, and other variables potentially impacting system safety will be incrementally introduced to analyze the effect on safety of the individual factors as well as their interaction and collective effect. In this paper we report the results of the first experiment that addresses the preliminary baseline condition tested over a range of traffic densities. Early results at five times the typical traffic density in today s NAS indicate that, under the assumptions of this study, airborne separation can be safely performed. In addition, we report on initial observations from an exploration of four additional factors tested at a single traffic density: broadcast surveillance signal interference, extent of intent sharing, pilot delay, and wind prediction error.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

An empirical model of energetic solar proton fluxes with applications to earth orbiting spacecraft

An empirical model for energetic solar proton fluxes is presented. With this model, the effects of such protons on geocentric space missions, to be flown during the next solar active period (1966-1983) and with orbits involving partial magnetospheric shielding, may be estimated. A synoptic background review is given, followed by a detailed discussion of the model's analytic development. Also given are comments on the model's use, errors, uncertainties, and limitations, including sample calculations which demonstrate the application of specific or general project missions. Finally, for circular trajectories, percentage exposure maps are presented, depicting fractional mission times spent outside particular L-shells as functions of orbit altitude and inclination.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Empirical solar proton model for orbiting spacecraft applications

An empirical model for energetic solar proton fluxes is presented. With this model the effects of such protons on geocentric space missions, to be flown during the next solar active period (1977-1983), and with orbits involving partial magnetospheric shielding, may be estimated. A synoptic background review is given, followed by a detailed discussion of the model's use, errors, uncertainties, and limitations, including sample calculations which demonstrate the application of specific or general project missions. Finally, for circular trajectories, percentage exposure maps are presented, depicting fractional mission times spent outside particular L shells as functions of orbit altitude and inclination.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Demonstration of remote clock monitoring by VLBI with three baseline closures

The capability of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to monitor the stability of remotely located hydrogen maser frequency standards has been demonstrated by a series of experiments conducted between Deep Space Stations in Australia, Spain, and California. The measured stabilities of the clock systems, over approximately 10 day intervals, were 1 to 3 parts in 10 to the 13th power, with the instabilities due to the oscillators, the clock distribution systems, the receiving system delays, and the VLBI measurement error. Experiments were conducted independently using two different systems (BLOCK 0 and WBDAS). Later comparison shows agreement on the order of 1 part in 10 to the 13th power. Closure was demonstrated on three separate occasions to 33, 10, and 13 ns with an error uncertainty of + or - 42 ns. The results represent an important consistency check on VLBI measurements.

Cheetham, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Quadrennial International Ozone Symposium, Boulder, CO, August 4-9, 1980, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

Recent developments in observational techniques are examined, taking into account a review of some unresolved problems in the measurement/estimation of total ozone and the vertical ozone profile, the sensitivity of Dobson total ozone estimations to wavelength band calibration uncertainties, errors in Dobson total measurements arising from aerosol attenuation, and optical stop and focussing effects in the Dobson instrument. Other subjects considered are related to total ozone observations, tropospheric ozone, upper air ozone observations, observations of trace gases in the atmosphere, ozone photochemistry and directly related photochemical models, the interaction of ozone and atmospheric circulation, ozone effects on climate, and solar activity and ozone variations. Programs and recommendations involving ozone theory and observations are also discussed, giving attention to current problems of ozone chemistry, the upper atmosphere research satellite program, a French contribution to ozone related studies, and ozone and the middle atmosphere program.

London, J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Execution monitoring for a mobile robot system

Due to sensor errors, uncertainty, incomplete knowledge, and a dynamic world, robot plans will not always be executed exactly as planned. This paper describes an implemented robot planning system that enhances the traditional sense-think-act cycle in ways that allow the robot system monitor its behavior and react in emergencies in real-time. A proposal on how robot systems can completely break away from the traditional three-step cycle is also made.

Miller, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Tidal Energy Dissipation from Topex/Poseidon

In a recent paper ({\it Nature, 405,} 775, 2000) we concluded that 25 to 30\% of the ocean's tidal energy dissipation, or about 1 terawatt, occurs in the deep ocean, with the remaining 2.6 TW in shallow seas. The physical mechanism for deep-ocean dissipation is apparently scattering of the surface tide into internal modes; Munk and Wunsch have suggested that this mechanism may provide half the power needed for mixing the deep-ocean. This paper builds further evidence for $1\pm 0.2$ TW of deep-ocean dissipation. The evidence is extracted from tidal elevations deduced from seven years of Topex/Poseidon satellite altimeter data. The dissipation rate Is formed as a balance between the rate of working by tidal forces and the energy flux divergence. While dynamical assumptions are required to compute fluxes, area integrals of the energy balance are, owing to the tight satellite constraints, remarkably insensitive to these assumptions. A large suite of tidal solutions based on a wide range of dynamical assumptions, on perturbations to bathymetric models, and on simulated elevation data are used to assess this sensitivity. These and Monte Carlo error fields from a generalized inverse model are used to establish error uncertainties.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Estimates of M2 Tidal Energy Dissipation from TOPEX/Poseidon Altimeter Data

Most of the tidal energy dissipation in the ocean occurs in shallow seas, as has long been recognized. However, recent work has suggested that a significant fraction of the dissipation, perhaps 1 TW or more, occurs in the deep ocean. This paper builds further evidence for that conclusion. More than 6 years of data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter are used to map the tidal dissipation rate throughout the world ocean. The dissipation rate is estimated as a balance between the rate of working by tidal forces and the energy flux divergence, computed using currents derived by least squares fitting of the altimeter data and the shallow water equations. Such calculations require dynamical assumptions, in particular about the nature of dissipation. To assess sensitivity of dissipation estimates to input assumptions, a large suite of tidal inversions based on a wide range of drag parameterizations and employing both real and synthetic altimeter data are compared. These experiments and Monte Carlo error fields from a generalized inverse model are used to establish error uncertainties for the dissipation estimates. Owing to the tight constraints on tidal elevation fields provided by the altimeter, area integrals of the energy balance are remarkably insensitive to required dynamical assumptions. Tidal energy dissipation is estimated for all major shallow seas (excluding individual polar seas) and compared with previous model and data-based estimates. Dissipation in the open ocean is significantly tnhanced around major bathymetric features, in a manner consistent with simple theories the generation of baroclinic tides.

Egbert, Gary D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) Radiometric Calibration of the Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer

The EOS/MISR instrument has completed preflight calibration and characterization of its nine cameras. The radiometric calibration requirements includes absolute radiometric accuracy to 3 percent. To meet this challenging requirement MISR has employed detector based calibration methodology. The source, a 1.65 m integrating sphere, is spatially and spectrally featureless. Thus, when viewing scenes that are likewise homogeneous, the sensor incident radiance is easily retrieved to high accuracy. To enhance the radiance product for arbitrary scene types, however, MISR is planning to incorporate spectral out-of-band, point-spread function deconvolution, and pixel nonuniformity of response corrections. A summary of the preflight calibration is presented in this paper, as well as the error uncertainties for specific scene types with and without these processing corrections.

radiometric calibration EOS MISR↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13635-DND

Objectives of AePW: Assess state-of-the-art Computational Aeroelasticity (CAe) methods as practical tools for the prediction of static and dynamic aeroelastic phenomena and responses on relevant geometries. - Perform comparative computational studies on selected test cases - Identify errors & uncertainties in computational aeroelastic methods - Identify gaps in existing aeroelastic databases - Provide roadmap of path forward (additional existing data sets, new experimental data sets, and analytical methods developments).

Walt Silva↗
NASA NTRS2019

Independent Calibration Approach for the CLARREO Pathfinder Mission

A CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF) mission has been funded to demonstrate retrieval of SI-traceable spectral reflectance with absolute uncertainty <0.3% (k=1). The mission consists of a Reflected Solar spectrometer that will be hosted on the International Space Station (ISS) in the 2023 timeframe and rely on a ratioing radiometer approach to retrieve the unprecedented accuracy. Demonstrating that the accuracy is achieved through an Independent Calibration effort similar in philosophy to the efforts in metrology laboratories relying on multiple, independent measurements to improve credibility for a sensor’s absolute and relative uncertainty error budgets. These measurements use different traceability paths and multiple instrument approaches and CPF’s Independent Calibration will be similar in this regard. The Independent Calibration relies on a pre-launch absolute radiometric calibration obtained from additional testing done after instrument thermal-vacuum (TVAC) testing. The added radiometric calibration is combined with a high fidelity instrument model to provide an on-orbit radiometric calibration independent from the ratioing radiometer approach. The current work describes the post-TVAC testing portion of the CPF Independent Calibration Plan and the Independent Model Development as well as planned on-orbit Evaluation of the Independent Calibration.

CLARREO Pathfinder↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced Dimensionality Analysis of TEMPO Ozone Profile Retrievals Using the Compact Phase Space (CPSR) Algorithm

TEMPO ozone (O 3 ) profile retrievals are expected to have fidelity in the troposphere due the sensitivities of the associated averaging kernels. However, those averaging kernels are severely rank deficiency meaning that a visual inspection of the vertical structure of the averaging kernel profile sensitivities is misleading due linear dependencies in the profile. The Compact Phase Space Retrieval (CPSR) algorithm use singular value decompositions of the averaging kernels and the ‘compressed’ retrieval solution error covariance to project the transformed averaging kernels into a space that removes the linear dependencies and accounts for the solution error uncertainties. In this oral presentation and poster, we apply the CPSR dimensional reduction analysis to TEMPO and TROPOMI O 3 profile retrievals for 13:45 UTC March 29, 2024 to study the phase space characteristics of the transformed averaging kernels as a function of latitude for North America. Our results show that TEMPO generally has more phase space vertical structure in the troposphere than TROPOMI. TEMPO has four to five dominant modes, and TROPOMI has five to six dominant modes. That means that dimensional reduction can reduce the TEMPO resource requirements by ~77% and the TROPOMI requirements by ~81%. Finally, we found that after removing linear dependences and after accounting for solution uncertainties TEMPO still has sensitivities throughout the troposphere.

TEMPO↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing the Calibration History of Radiometers for Determining Optimal Calibration Day(s)

This study investigates the effects of calibrating radiometers using one day or multiple cloudless days as recommended by ASTM and ISO standards. The results demonstrate good responsivity agreement with estimated uncertainty error bars over the years for various radiometers under various Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) events at both the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Southern Great Plains facility. The BORCAL method appears to justify the use of a single calibration day with enough data points to attain repeatable calibration results.

BORCAL↗
NASA NTRS2002

Error Estimation and Uncertainty Propagation in Computational Fluid Mechanics

Numerical simulation has now become an integral part of engineering design process. Critical design decisions are routinely made based on the simulation results and conclusions. Verification and validation of the reliability of the numerical simulation is therefore vitally important in the engineering design processes. We propose to develop theories and methodologies that can automatically provide quantitative information about the reliability of the numerical simulation by estimating numerical approximation error, computational model induced errors and the uncertainties contained in the mathematical models so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be verified and validated. We also propose to develop and implement methodologies and techniques that can control the error and uncertainty during the numerical simulation so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be improved.

Zhu, J. Z.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Performance Metrics, Error Modeling, and Uncertainty Quantification

A common set of statistical metrics has been used to summarize the performance of models or measurements-­ the most widely used ones being bias, mean square error, and linear correlation coefficient. They assume linear, additive, Gaussian errors, and they are interdependent, incomplete, and incapable of directly quantifying un­certainty. The authors demonstrate that these metrics can be directly derived from the parameters of the simple linear error model. Since a correct error model captures the full error information, it is argued that the specification of a parametric error model should be an alternative to the metrics-based approach. The error-modeling meth­odology is applicable to both linear and nonlinear errors, while the metrics are only meaningful for linear errors. In addition, the error model expresses the error structure more naturally, and directly quantifies uncertainty. This argument is further explained by highlighting the intrinsic connections between the performance metrics, the error model, and the joint distribution between the data and the reference.

Quantification↗
NASA NTRS1989

Identification and verification of termination conditions in fine motion in presence of sensor errors and geometric uncertainties

Results are reported from a search for reasonable constraints under which an automatic uncertainty-handling strategy (for robot part-mating tasks) is guaranteed to succeed. The concept of contact formations is introduced to describe contacts among parts in a system, aiming at reducing the dimensionality of assembly verification. Also described is a technique for identifying contact formations in spite of errors in sensing and geometric uncertainties. It is impossible to verify termination conditions in general. Design constraints for which verification can be guaranteed are formulated and shown to be reasonable in the sense that they do not impose unrealistic conditions on typical designs. Results of implementation on a robot system consisting of a PUMA robot with RTI force/torque sensors support the theoretical derivations and show empirically that good results can still be obtained when the theoretical constraints are relaxed somewhat.

Desai, Rajiv S.↗