Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “estimating methodology”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Deterministic Multiaxial Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancements for CARES/Creep Integrated Design Code

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of sum, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of Ns methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗

Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗

Satellite and airborne remote sensing of gross primary productivity in boreal Alaskan lakes

In terrestrial and marine ecosystems, remote sensing has been used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) for decades, but few applications exist for shallow freshwater ecosystems.Here we show field-based GPP correlates with satellite and airborne lake color across a range of optically and limnologically diverse lakes in interior Alaska. A strong relationship between in situ GPP derived from stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and space-based lake color from satellites (e.g. Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and CubeSats) and airborne imagery (AVIRIS-NG) demonstrates the potential power of this technique for improving spatial and temporal monitoring of lake GPP when coupled with additional field validation measurements across different systems. In shallow waters clear enough for sunlight to reach lake bottoms, both submerged vegetation (macrophytes and algae) and phytoplankton likely contribute to GPP. The stable isotopes and remotely sensed shallow lake color used here integrate both components. These results demonstrate the utility of lake color as a feasible means for mapping lake GPP from remote sensing. This novel methodology estimates GPP from remote sensing in shallow lakes by combining field measurements of oxygen isotopes with airborne, satellite and CubeSat imagery. This use of lake color for providing insight into ecological processes of shallow lakes is recommended, especially for remote arctic and boreal landscapes.

airborne remote sensing↗

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Version 6 Cloud Products

The version 6 cloud products of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) instrument suite are described. The cloud top temperature, pressure, and height and effective cloud fraction are now reported at the AIRS field-of-view (FOV) resolution. Significant improvements in cloud height assignment over version 5 are shown with FOV-scale comparisons to cloud vertical structure observed by the CloudSat 94 GHz radar and the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Cloud thermodynamic phase (ice, liquid, and unknown phase), ice cloud effective diameter D(sub e), and ice cloud optical thickness (τ) are derived using an optimal estimation methodology for AIRS FOVs, and global distributions for 2007 are presented. The largest values of tau are found in the storm tracks and near convection in the tropics, while D(sub e) is largest on the equatorial side of the midlatitude storm tracks in both hemispheres, and lowest in tropical thin cirrus and the winter polar atmosphere. Over the Maritime Continent the diurnal variability of tau is significantly larger than for the total cloud fraction, ice cloud frequency, and D(sub e), and is anchored to the island archipelago morphology. Important differences are described between northern and southern hemispheric midlatitude cyclones using storm center composites. The infrared-based cloud retrievals of AIRS provide unique, decadal-scale and global observations of clouds over portions of the diurnal and annual cycles, and capture variability within the mesoscale and synoptic scales at all latitudes.

infrared instruments↗

Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

Cost data for the tug DDT&E and operations phases are presented. Option 6 is the recommended option selected from seven options considered and was used as the basis for ground processing estimates. Option 6 provides for processing the tug in a factory clean environment in the low bay area of VAB with subsequent cleaning to visibly clean. The basis and results of the trade study to select Option 6 processing plan is included. Cost estimating methodology, a work breakdown structure, and a dictionary of WBS definitions is also provided.

Source record↗

A remote sensing-aided small grains inventory using sequential Landsat imagery

A procedure for manual acreage estimation from Landsat imagery is proposed which involves a stepwise sequence of area stratification, simple size estimation, acreage estimation, and acreage precision calculation. The sample design consists of a systematic point sample of the Landsat imagery for crop type presence calibrated by a double sample of several image points having crop season-coincident ground data. The sample point layout chosen for cost-efficiency in manual sampling is a doubly aligned point matrix. The significant advantage of this sampling approach is that crop information is available from throughout the agricultural reporting unit. For technique demonstration purposes three strata were selected for sampling. The proposed technique can complement more sophisticated computer-based acreage estimation methodologies, and refinements in the sampling techniques promise significant improvements for operational utility.

Thomas, R. W.↗

On-orbit Systems Identification of Flexible Spacecraft Technol., 1984, Pt. 2 p 465-481

Future spacecraft include configurations which are too flexible to be adequately tested prior to flight and which will require on-orbit systems identification to ensure safe operation of the flight control system. The structural dynamics model will evolve and its accuracy will improve in stages as ground tests of full-scale components and replica-scale models are performed. State Space Modeling and Conditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation methodology can provide the formal probability-based framework for the process of upgrading a model as additional test results are obtained. Although the number of unknown parameters can be reduced by the use of canonical forms for the stability matrix, the number of unknown model parameters quickly becomes unmanageable unless advantage is taken of the relationship of a much fewer number of global model parameters. Distributed parameter systems or partial differential equation models are one way to take advantage of such global parameters to reduce the number of unknown model parameters.

Taylor, L.↗

Space Station Freedom operations costs

Measures to reduce the operation costs of the Space Station which can be implemented in the design and development stages are discussed. Operational functions are described in the context of an overall operations concept. The provisions for operations cost responsibilities among the partners in the Space Station program are presented. Cost estimating methodologies and the way in which operations costs affect the design and development process are examined.

Accola, Anne L.↗

A comparison of transportation node costs and their primary drivers

This paper describes the process for defining and evaluating the costs of alternative transportation node concepts for Space Station Freedom. A cost estimating methodology including costs of development, production, delivery, assembly, steady state operations, and mission-specific operations is described in detail. The primary drivers of transportation node costs are identified and discussed.

Comstock, Douglas A.↗

But what will it Cost? The history of NASA cost estimating

Within two years of being chartered in 1958 as an independent agency to conduct civilian pursuits in aeronautics and space, NASA absorbed either wholly or partially the people, facilities, and equipment of several existing organizations. These included the laboratories of the National Advisory Committee of Aeronautics (NACA) at Langley Research Center in Virginia, Ames Research Center in California, and Lewis Research Center in Ohio; the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA) at Redstone Arsenal Alabama, for which the team of Wernher von Braun worked; and the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) and their ongoing work on big boosters. These were especially valuable resources to jump start the new agency in light of the shocking success of the Soviet space probe Sputnik in the autumn of the previous year and the corresponding pressure from an impatient American public to produce some response. Along with these inheritances, there came some existing systems engineering and management practices, including project cost estimating methodologies. This paper will briefly trace the origins of those methods and how they evolved within the agency over the past three decades.

Hamaker, Joseph W.↗

Precision of Four Acoustic Bone Measurement Devices

Though many studies have quantified the precision of various acoustic bone measurement devices, it is difficult to directly compare the results among the studies, because they used disparate subject pools, did not specify the estimation methodology, or did not use consistent definitions for various precision characteristics. In this study, we used a repeated measures design protocol to directly determine the precision characteristics of four acoustic bone measurement devices: the Mechanical Response Tissue Analyzer (MRTA), the UBA-575+, the SoundScan 2000 (S2000), and the Sahara Ultrasound Done Analyzer. Ten men and ten women were scanned on all four devices by two different operators at five discrete time points: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Month 3 and Month 6. The percent coefficient of variation (%CV) and standardized coefficient of variation were computed for the following precision characteristics: interoperator effect, operator-subject interaction, short-term error variance, and long-term drift, The MRTA had high interoperator errors for its ulnar and tibial stiffness measures and a large long-term drift in its tibial stiffness measurement. The UBA-575+ exhibited large short-term error variances and long-term drift for all three of its measurements. The S2000's tibial speed of sound measurement showed a high short-term error variance and a significant operator-subject interaction but very good values ( < 1%) for the other precision characteristics. The Sahara seemed to have the best overall performance, but was hampered by a large %CV for short-term error variance in its broadband ultrasound attenuation measure.

Miller, Christopher↗

Precision of Four Acoustic Bone Measurement Devices

Though many studies have quantified the precision of various acoustic bone measurement devices, it is difficult to directly compare the results among the studies, because they used disparate subject pools, did not specify the estimation methodology, or did not use consistent definitions for various precision characteristics. In this study, we used a repeated measures design protocol to directly determine the precision characteristics of four acoustic bone measurement devices: the Mechanical Response Tissue Analyzer (MRTA), the UBA-575+, the SoundScan 2000 (S2000), and the Sahara Ultrasound Bone Analyzer. Ten men and ten women were scanned on all four devices by two different operators at five discrete time points: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Month 3 and Month 6. The percent coefficient of variation (%CV) and standardized coefficient of variation were computed for the following precision characteristics: interoperator effect, operator-subject interaction, short-term error variance, and long-term drift. The MRTA had high interoperator errors for its ulnar and tibial stiffness measures and a large long-term drift in its tibial stiffness measurement. The UBA-575+ exhibited large short-term error variances and long-term drift for all three of its measurements. The S2000's tibial speed of sound measurement showed a high short-term error variance and a significant operator-subject interaction but very good values (less than 1%) for the other precision characteristics. The Sahara seemed to have the best overall performance, but was hampered by a large %CV for short-term error variance in its broadband ultrasound attenuation measure.

Miller, Christopher↗

Bayesian Super-Resolved Surface Reconstruction From Multiple Images

Bayesian inference has been wed successfully for many problems where the aim is to infer the parameters of a model of interest. In this paper we formulate the three dimensional reconstruction problem as the problem of inferring the parameters of a surface model from image data, and show how Bayesian methods can be used to estimate the parameters of this model given the image data. Thus we recover the three dimensional description of the scene. This approach also gives great flexibility. We can specify the geometrical properties of the model to suit our purpose, and can also use different models for how the surface reflects the light incident upon it. In common with other Bayesian inference problems, the estimation methodology requires that we can simulate the data that would have been recoded for any values of the model parameters. In this application this means that if we have image data we must be able to render the surface model. However it also means that we can infer the parameters of a model whose resolution can be chosen irrespective of the resolution of the images, and may be super-resolved. We present results of the inference of surface models from simulated aerial photographs for the case of super-resolution, where many surface elements project into a single pixel in the low-resolution images.

Smelyanskiy, V. N.↗

On-Orbit Calibration of Redundant Spacecraft Gyros by Optimal Reduction to Three Axes

The Aqua spacecraft will carry four single-axis gyros configured with three orthogonal axes and one skew axis. This redundancy presents a challenge for batch methods of on-orbit gyro calibration that use a spacecraft rotation model deterministically related to gyro data, in that sensor data can respond to at most three angular velocity components. When the number of gyros, N, is greater than 3, the 3xN matrix, G, that reduces the N gyro measurements to three body-frame angular-velocity components cannot be fully determined by such methods; there are many such matrices that produce essentially the same angular velocity history. In such a case, spacecraft operators require information about the Nx3 gyro linear response matrix, R, that relates gyro outputs to the body-frame angular velocities causing them. This matrix provides sufficient information to determine multiple reduced-dimension G-matrices for use in case of failure or degradation of one or more gyros, as well as to determine an optimal 3xN G for the fully-functional configuration. A viable proposal is to apply a 3xN pre-filter matrix, F, to the N gyro outputs before carrying out a conventional gyro calibration procedure. The angular-velocity history emerging from conventional calibration may then be used as input data, together with the same gyro data that generated it, to fit the alignment, scale-factor, and bias parameters of each gyro axis in turn. A difficulty of such a proposal is the arbitrariness in the choice of F. Due to gyro noise, different pre-filter matrices produce different calibrations. This paper presents a method of choosing F that is based on optimizing gyro consistency in the limit of infinite weight on gyro data, as compared to sensor data. The choice of F is independent of a priori alignment and is based on the gyro data alone. The method is applicable to any N of three or more, but reduces to conventional batch-estimation methodologies when N = 3. Results of computational comparison among calibration simulations using various choices of F will be presented for the Aqua gyro configuration with N = 4.

Radomski, M. S.↗

Unique Tuft Test Facility Dramatically Reduces Brush Seal Development Costs

Brush seals have been incorporated in the latest turbine engines to reduce leakage and improve efficiency. However, the life of these seals is limited by wear. Studies have shown that optimal sealing characteristics for a brush seal occur before the interference fit between the brush and shaft is excessively worn. Research to develop improved tribopairs (brush and coating) with reduced wear and lower friction has been hindered by the lack of an accurate, low-cost, efficient test methodology. Estimated costs for evaluating a new material combination in an engine company seal test program are on the order of $100,000. To address this need, the NASA Lewis Research Center designed, built, and validated a unique, innovative brush seal tuft tester that slides a single tuft of brush seal wire against a rotating shaft under controlled loads, speeds, and temperatures comparable to those in turbine engines. As an initial screening tool, the brush seal tuft tester can tribologicaly evaluate candidate seal materials for 1/10th the cost of full-scale seal tests. Previous to the development of the brush seal tuft tester facility, most relevant tribological data had been obtained from full-scale seal tests conducted primarily to determine seal leakage characteristics. However, from a tribological point of view, these tests included the confounding effects of varying contact pressures, bristle flaring, high-temperature oxidation, and varying bristle contact angles. These confounding effects are overcome in tuft testing. The interface contact pressures can be either constant or varying depending on the tuft mounting device, and bristle wear can be measured optically with inscribed witness marks. In a recent cooperative program with a U.S. turbine engine manufacturer, five metallic wire candidates were tested against a plasma-sprayed Nichrome-bonded chrome carbide. The wire materials used during this collaboration were either nickel-chrome- or cobaltchrome-based superalloys. These tests corroborated full-scale seal test results and provided insight into previously untested combinations. As the cycle temperature for improved efficiency turbine engines increases, new brush seal materials combinations must be considered. Future brush seal tuft testing will include both metallic and ceramic bristles versus commercial and NASA-developed shaft coatings. The ultimate goal of this work is to expand the current data base so that seal designers can tailor brush seal materials to specific applications.

Fellenstein, James A.↗

Staging Airliner Service

There is a general consensus building that historically high fuel prices and greater public awareness of the emissions that result from burning fuel are going to be long-term concerns for those who design, build, and operate airliners. The possibility of saving both fuel and reducing emissions has rekindled interest in breaking very long-range airline flights into multiple stages or even adopting in-flight refueling. It is likely that staging will result in lower fuel burn, and recent published reports have suggested that the savings are substantial, particularly if the airliner is designed from the outset for this kind of operation. Given that staging runs against the design and operation historical trend, this result begs for further attention. This paper will examine the staging question, examining both analytic and numeric performance estimation methodologies to quantify the likely amount of fuel savings that can be expected and the resulting design impacts on the airliner.

Hahn, Andrew S.↗

Human Response to Low-Intensity Sonic Booms Heard Indoors and Outdoors

Test subjects seated inside and outside a house were exposed to low-intensity N-wave sonic booms during a 3-week test period in June 2006- The house was instrumented to measure the booms both inside and out. F-18 aircraft were flown to achieve a variety of boom overpressures from approximately .1 to .6 psf During four test days, seventy-seven test subjects heard the booms while seated inside and outside the house. Using the Magnitude Estimation methodology and artificial reference sounds ; the subjects rated the annoyance of the booms. Since the same subjects heard similar booms both inside and outside the house, comparative ratings of indoor and outdoor annoyance were obtained. For a given metric level, indoor subjects gave higher annoyance scores than outdoor subjects. For a given boom; annoyance scores inside were on average the same as those outside. In a post-test questionnaire, the majority of subjects rated the indoor booms as more annoying than the outdoor ones. These results are discussed in this paper.

Sullivan, Brenda M.↗

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

DeLoach, Richard↗