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From Research to Reality -- Challenges and Opportunities in Complex System Design

The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.

Ian Levitt↗

NASA NTRS1979

Prebiotic coordination chemistry: The potential role of transition-metal complexes in the chemical evolution

In approaching the extremely involved and complex problem of the origin of life, consideration of the coordination chemistry appeared not only as a possibility but as a necessity. The first model experiments appear to be promising because of prebiotic-type synthesis by means of transition-metal complexes. It is especially significant that in some instances various types of vitally important substances (nucleic bases, amino acids) are formed simultaneously. There is ground to hope that systematic studies in this field will clarify the role of transition-metal complexes in the organizatorial phase of chemical evolution. It is obvious that researchers working in the fields of the chemistry of cyano and carbonyl complexes, and of the catalytic effect of transition-metal complexes are best suited to study these aspects of the attractive and interesting problem of the origin of life.

Beck, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Spectral evolution during a complex gamma ray burst observed with BATSE

More than 270 gamma ray bursts have been observed to date with the BATSE (Burst and Transient Source Experiment) aboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. Many have a duration of 10 seconds or more and complex structure with multiple peaks or spikes. Complex bursts in the energy range 30 keV to 1 MeV were systematically analyzed to determine the relations between intensity and spectral shape, or hardness. The burst hardness rises and falls in during spikes, but somewhat earlier than the intensity. A simple correlation between intensity and hardness is, therefore, not observed: the intensity lags instead. Results from one burst which shows evidence for longer lags in longer spikes are reported.

Gruber, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Chronology and Petrology of Silicates From IIE Iron Meteorites: Evidence of a Complex Parent Body Evolution

IIE iron meteorites contain silicate inclusions whose characteristics suggest a parent body similar to that of H-chondrites. However, these silicates show a wide range of alteration, ranging from Netschadvo and Techado, whose inclusions are little altered. to highly differentiated silicates like-those in Kodaikanal, Weekeroo Station and Colomera, which have lost metal and sulfur and are enriched in feldspar. We find these inclusions to show varying degrees of shock alteration. Because only a limited amount of data on - isotopic ages of HE silicates were available, we made Ar-39 - Ar-40 age determinations of Watson, Techado, miles Colomera, and Sombrerete. Watson has an Ar-Ar age of 3.653 +/- 0.012 Gyr, similar to previously reported ages for Kodaikanal and Netschadvo. We suggest that the various determined radiometric ages of these three meteorites were probably reset by a common impact event. The space exposure ages for these three meteorites are also similar to each other and are considerably younger than exposure ages of other IIEs. Ar-39 - Ar-40 ages inferred for the other four meteorites analyzed are considerably older than Watson and are: Techado =4.49 +/- 0.01 Gyr, Miles =4.412 +/- 0.016 Gyr, Colomera =4.469 +/- 0.012 Gyr, and Sombrerete =4.535 +/- 0.005 Gyr. These ages are in fair agreement with previously reported Rb-Sr isochron ages for Colomera and Weekeroo Station. Although several mechanisms to form HE meteorites previously were suggested, it is not obvious that a single mechanism could produce a suite of meteorites with very different degrees of silicate differentiation and with isotopic ages that differ by >0.8 Gyr. We suggest that those IIEs with older isotopic ages are a product of partial melting and differentiation within the parent body, followed by mixing of silicate and metal while both were relatively hot. Netschadvo and Watson may have formed by this same process or by impact mixing about 4.5 Gyr ago, but their isotopic ages were subsequently reset by shock heating. Kodaikanal apparently is required to have formed more recently, in which case impact melting and differentiation seems the only viable process. We see no compelling reasons to believe that IIE silicate and metal derived from different parent bodies or that the parent body of IIEs was the same as that of H-chondrites.

Bogard, Donald D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Understanding the Space Shuttle Main Engine Hydraulic Actuation System and Reviewing Its Evolution

The complex engine start and thrust control requirements of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) require unique valve, actuator and control system hardware. The Hydraulic Actuation System (HAS) was designed, developed, and now operates to meet tight engine control requirement limits to assure safe, reliable and correct engine thrust at all times. The actuator is designed to be fail safe and fail operate in the areas where redundancy is important. The HAS has an additional pneumatic operating capability that insures a safe sequential closure of all actuators and propellant valves in the event of the loss of hydraulic system pressure or loss of electrical closed loop control of the actuator. The objective of this paper is to provide a complete description of the actuator s internal operating system, along with its interaction with all SSME system interfaces. Additionally the paper addresses the challenges, problems identified, and corrected, and lessons learned, during the course of the almost 35 years of engine operation.

McWade, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Temporal Evolution of a Streamer Complex: Coronal and In-Situ Plasma Parameters

In this paper we report on observations acquired by the Ultra Violet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), from 10 to 17 June 2000, at the time of a SOHO-Sun-Ulysses quadrature. UVCS took data at 1.6 and 1.9 solar radii, with a slit normal to the solar radius and centered along the radial to Ulysses. A streamer complex was sampled by UVCS, throughout the quadrature campaign, giving us the opportunity to derive plasma parameters in different streamers, and to compare them with plasma properties measured in situ. Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) images above 2 solar radii helped us understand the temporal evolution of the streamer complex. We derive densities, temperatures and elemental abundances in two streamers, which have different temperatures and element abundances. In spite of these differences, both structures have the same FIP bias. The Fe/O ratio, which may be considered a proxy for the FIP effect, was measured (\it in situ} by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) aboard the Ulysses spacecraft. Values of Fe/O measured in the corona, at the sites where in situ plasma originated, agree with in situ Fe/O values.

Bemporad, A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The magnetic evolution of the activity complex AR 7260: A roadmap

The active region NOAA 7260 rotated onto the north solar hemisphere as a mature bipole: a dominant negative-polarity sunspot with trailing plage and scattered small spots in attendance. The dominant p spot itself had strong magnetic fields and covered almost 400 x 10(exp -6) of a solar hemisphere. For a period of seven days beginning 14 August, 1992 this active region displayed rapid and drastic evolution: no fewer than 50 magnetic bipoles emerged in the area trailing the large sunspot, increasing the region's magnetic flux by more than 10(exp 22) Mx. This new group of sunspots formed a complex Beta gamma delta configuration with two delta spots and a high degree of magnetic shear. This region was very well observed by Yohkoh and various ground-based instruments. It presented opportunities to study new emerging flux, flares, and also the decay of a large sunspot. For the benefit of later studies we present a description of the global characteristics of this active region, a detailed 'roadmap' of its evolution during disk passage including the development of the two delta regions. We compare proper motion trends and flaring activity to observations of other delta-spots reported in the literature. We also comment on the observed outflow of magnetic elements from the decaying p spot.

Leka, K. D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Formation and Past Evolution of the Showers of 96P/Machholz Complex

In this work we model the dynamical evolution of meteoroid streams of comet 96P/Machholz, and the largest member of the Marsden sunskirters, comet P/1999 J6. We simultaneously fit the characteristics of eight meteor showers which have been proposed to be linked to the complex, using observations from a range of techniques - visual, video, TV and radar. The aim is to obtain a self-consistent scenario of past capture of a large comet into a short-period orbit, and its subsequent fragmentation history. Moreover, we also aim to constrain the dominant parent of these showers. The fit of our simulated shower characteristics to observations is consistent with the scenario of a capture of a proto-comet 96P/Machholz by Jupiter circa 20000 BCE (Before Christian Era), and a subsequent major breakup around 100-950 CE (Christian Era) which resulted in the formation of the Marsden group of comets. We find that the Marsden group of comets are not the immediate parents of the daytime Arietids and Northern and Southern delta-Aquariids, as previously suggested. In fact, the hypothesis that the Northern delta-Aquariids are related to the Marsden group of comets is not supported by this study. The bulk of the observational characteristics of all eight showers can be explained by meteoroid ejection primarily from comet 96P/Machholz between 10000 BCE and 20000 BCE. Assuming the Marsden group of comets originated between 100 CE-950 CE, we conclude that sunskirting comets contribute mainly to the meteoroid stream near the time of the peak of the daytime Arietids, Southern delta-Aquariids, kappa-Velids. Finally, we find that the meteor showers identified by Babadzhanov and Obrubov (1992) as the alpha-Cetids, the Ursids and Carinids correspond to the daytime lambda-Taurids, the November iota-Draconids or December alpha-Draconids and the theta-Carinids.

Abedin, Abedin↗

NASA NTRS1977

Evolution of mare basalts - The complexity of the U-Th-Pb system

An attempt has been made to gain more insight into mare-basalt evolution by performing a very detailed leaching and mineral-separation U-Th-Pb systematics study on mare basalt 15085. It is found that about 20-50% of the U, Th, and Pb reside on the grain boundaries or in the mesostasis and that the Pb-207/Pb-206 ratios of the grain boundaries and crystal interiors are distinctly different. These distinct trends appear to represent either continuous or episodic postcrystallizational disturbances to the U-Th-Pb system of this rock. Using U and Pb partition coefficients, it is concluded that existing two- and three-stage U-Pb evolution models do not accurately describe mare-basalt genesis. An alternative two-stage + KREEP mixing model is proposed as a simple approximation to U-Pb evolution in lunar rocks. Most Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd data are compatible with this model.

Unruh, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A molecular timescale of eukaryote evolution and the rise of complex multicellular life

BACKGROUND: The pattern and timing of the rise in complex multicellular life during Earth's history has not been established. Great disparity persists between the pattern suggested by the fossil record and that estimated by molecular clocks, especially for plants, animals, fungi, and the deepest branches of the eukaryote tree. Here, we used all available protein sequence data and molecular clock methods to place constraints on the increase in complexity through time. RESULTS: Our phylogenetic analyses revealed that (i) animals are more closely related to fungi than to plants, (ii) red algae are closer to plants than to animals or fungi, (iii) choanoflagellates are closer to animals than to fungi or plants, (iv) diplomonads, euglenozoans, and alveolates each are basal to plants+animals+fungi, and (v) diplomonads are basal to other eukaryotes (including alveolates and euglenozoans). Divergence times were estimated from global and local clock methods using 20-188 proteins per node, with data treated separately (multigene) and concatenated (supergene). Different time estimation methods yielded similar results (within 5%): vertebrate-arthropod (964 million years ago, Ma), Cnidaria-Bilateria (1,298 Ma), Porifera-Eumetozoa (1,351 Ma), Pyrenomycetes-Plectomycetes (551 Ma), Candida-Saccharomyces (723 Ma), Hemiascomycetes-filamentous Ascomycota (982 Ma), Basidiomycota-Ascomycota (968 Ma), Mucorales-Basidiomycota (947 Ma), Fungi-Animalia (1,513 Ma), mosses-vascular plants (707 Ma), Chlorophyta-Tracheophyta (968 Ma), Rhodophyta-Chlorophyta+Embryophyta (1,428 Ma), Plantae-Animalia (1,609 Ma), Alveolata-plants+animals+fungi (1,973 Ma), Euglenozoa-plants+animals+fungi (1,961 Ma), and Giardia-plants+animals+fungi (2,309 Ma). By extrapolation, mitochondria arose approximately 2300-1800 Ma and plastids arose 1600-1500 Ma. Estimates of the maximum number of cell types of common ancestors, combined with divergence times, showed an increase from two cell types at 2500 Ma to approximately 10 types at 1500 Ma and 50 cell types at approximately 1000 Ma. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that oxygen levels in the environment, and the ability of eukaryotes to extract energy from oxygen, as well as produce oxygen, were key factors in the rise of complex multicellular life. Mitochondria and organisms with more than 2-3 cell types appeared soon after the initial increase in oxygen levels at 2300 Ma. The addition of plastids at 1500 Ma, allowing eukaryotes to produce oxygen, preceded the major rise in complexity.

Evolution, Molecular↗

NASA NTRS2018

Observations of Organic Chemistry on Titan

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn, with a thick (1.45 bar) atmosphere composed primarily of molecular nitrogen and methane. Atmospheric photochemistry results in the production of a wide range of complex organic molecules, including hydrocarbons, nitriles, aromatics and species of possible pre-biotic relevance. Studies of Titan's atmospheric chemistry thus provide a unique opportunity to explore the origin and evolution of complex organic matter in a primitive (terrestrial) planetary atmosphere. Underpinned by laboratory measurements, remote and in-situ observations of hydrocarbons, nitriles and oxygen-bearing species provide important new insights in this regard. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is a powerful new facility, well suited to the study of molecular emission from Titan's upper and middle-atmosphere. This presentation will focus on detection and mapping of rotational emission lines from molecules including HNC, CO, HC3N, CH3CN, C2H3CN and C2H5CN, as well minor isotopologues. Possible chemical formation pathways for these species will be discussed, and the scope for improved understanding of non-aqueous organic chemistry through laboratory experiments and atmospheric/liquid-phase simulations under Titan-like conditions will be examined [5].

Charnley, Steven B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOx Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2003

Applicability of Complexity Theory to Martian Fluvial Systems: A Preliminary Analysis

In the last 15 years, terrestrial geomorphology has been revolutionized by the theories of chaotic systems, fractals, self-organization, and selforganized criticality. Except for the application of fractal theory to the analysis of lava flows and rampart craters on Mars, these theories have not yet been applied to problems of Martian landscape evolution. These complexity theories are elucidated below, along with the methods used to relate these theories to the realities of Martian fluvial systems.

Rosenshein, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Magnetic field evolution in white dwarfs: The hall effect and complexity of the field

We calculate the evolution of the magnetic fields in white dwarfs, taking into account the Hall effect. Because this effect depends nonlinearly upon the magnetic field strength B, the time dependences of the various multipole field components are coupled. The evolution of the field is thus significantly more complicated than has been indicated by previous investigations. Our calculations employ recent white dwarf evolutionary sequences computed for stars with masses 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 solar mass. We show that in the presence of a strong (up to approximately 10(exp 9) G) internal toroidal magnetic field; the evolution of even the lowest order poloidal modes can be substantially changed by the Hall effect. As an example, we compute the evolution of an initially weak quadrupole component, which we take arbitrarily to be approximately 0.1%-1% of the strength of a dominant dipole field. We find that coupling provided by the Hall effect can produce growth of the ratio of the quadrupole to the dipole component of the surface value of the magnetic field strength by more than a factor of 10 over the 10(exp 9) to 10(exp 10) year cooling lifetime of the white dwarf. Some consequences of these results for the process of magnetic-field evolution in white dwarfs are briefly discussed.

Muslimov, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The methodology of multi-viewpoint clustering analysis

One of the greatest challenges facing the software engineering community is the ability to produce large and complex computer systems, such as ground support systems for unmanned scientific missions, that are reliable and cost effective. In order to build and maintain these systems, it is important that the knowledge in the system be suitably abstracted, structured, and otherwise clustered in a manner which facilitates its understanding, manipulation, testing, and utilization. Development of complex mission-critical systems will require the ability to abstract overall concepts in the system at various levels of detail and to consider the system from different points of view. Multi-ViewPoint - Clustering Analysis MVP-CA methodology has been developed to provide multiple views of large, complicated systems. MVP-CA provides an ability to discover significant structures by providing an automated mechanism to structure both hierarchically (from detail to abstract) and orthogonally (from different perspectives). We propose to integrate MVP/CA into an overall software engineering life cycle to support the development and evolution of complex mission critical systems.

Mehrotra, Mala↗

NASA NTRS1991

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

Understanding of the evolution of complex life, and of the roles that changing terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments played in life's history, is dependent upon synthetic knowledge of the fossil record. Paleontologists have been describing fossils for more that two centuries. However, much of this information is dispersed in monographs and journal articles published throughout the world. Over the past several years, this literature was surveyed, and a data base on times of origination and extinction of fossil genera was compiled. The data base, which now holds approximately 32,000 genera, covers all taxonomic groups of marine animals, incorporates the most recent taxonomic assignments, and uses a detailed global time framework that can resolve originations and extinctions to intervals averaging three million years in duration. These data can be used to compile patterns of global biodiversity, measure rates of taxic evolution, and test hypotheses concerning adaptive radiations, mass extinctions, etc. Thus far, considerable effort was devoted to using the data to test the hypothesis of periodicity of mass extinction. Rates of extinction measured from the data base have also been used to calibrate models of evolutionary radiations in marine environments. It was observed that new groups, or clades of animals (i.e., orders and classes) tend to reach appreciable diversity first in nearshore environments and then to radiate in more offshore environments; during decline, these clades may disappear from the nearshore while persisting in offshore, deep water habitats. These observations have led to suggestions that there is something special about stressful or perturbed environments that promotes the evolution of novel kinds of animals that can rapidly replace their predecessors. The numerical model that is being investigated to study this phenomenon treats environments along onshore-offshore gradients as if they were discrete habitats. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.↗