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On the 2018 Outburst of the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1756.9-2508 As Seen with NICER

We report on the coherent timing analysis of the 182 Hz accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SwiftJ1756.92508during its 2018 outburst as observed with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Combiningour NICER observations with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts, we alsostudied the long-term spin and orbital evolution of this source. We find that the binary system is well describedby a constant orbital period model, with an upper limit on the orbital period derivative of Pb < 7.4 ´ 10-13 ss1.Additionally, we improve upon the source coordinates through astrometric analysis of the pulse arrival times,finding R.A.=17h56m57 18±0 08 and decl.=25°0627 8±3 5, while simultaneously measuring thelong-term spin frequency derivative as n = -7.3 ´ 10-16 Hzs1. We briefly discuss the implications of thesemeasurements in the context of the wider population of accreting millisecond pulsars. We reported on the coherent timing analysis of the 2018 outburst of Swift J1756 as observed with NICER. Consistent with analyses of the previous outbursts (Krimm et al. 2007b; Patruno et al. 2010), we find that the X-ray pulsations have energy dependent amplitudes; the fractional amplitude of the fundamental increases with energy, whereas the fractional amplitude of the harmonic shows a slight decline with energy. This energy dependent behavior is not unusual in AMXPs (Patruno & Watts 2012) and can be interpreted in terms of the thermal emission from the stellar hotspot and reprocessing in the accretion column (e.g., Gierliński et al. 2002; Ibragimov & Poutanen 2009). The pulse arrival times of the 2018 outburst are well described by a timing model consisting of a circular orbit with a constant spin frequency. The pulse phases with respect to this model do not show spurious residuals with time or orbital phase, and no evidence is found that the pulse arrival times exhibit an additional delay associated with passing through the gravitational well of the companion star (Shapiro delay). We note, however, that the expected Shapiro delay is given as (Shapiro et al. 1971) Equation (5) where Φ is the orbital phase, G is the gravitational constant, c is the speed of light, and i is the inclination. Even for the maximum allowed companion mass, ${M}_{C}=0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$ (Krimm et al. 2007b, but see Section 4.2 for more details) and an inclination of 90°, the largest delay we can expect is only 4 μs. As this time-delay is smaller than the uncertainty on our phase residuals by nearly two orders of magnitude (see Figure 1), we are not sensitive to Shapiro delays in Swift J1756. Comparing our measurements for the 2018 outburst with those of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts as observed with RXTE, we analyzed the long-term evolution of this source. We found that the binary system is consistent with having a constant orbital period and that the pulsar shows a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{\nu }=-7.3\times {10}^{-16}\,\mathrm{Hz}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$. 4.1. Spin-down Evolution The long-term spin frequency derivative measured in Swift J1756 is of the same order as the spin frequency derivatives measured in other AMXPs (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno 2010; Riggio et al. 2011). This frequency change is most likely driven by the neutron star's loss of rotational energy. If so, then the spin-down luminosity is given as Equation (6) where I represents the neutron star moment of inertia. The long-term spin-down of a neutron star is usually assumed to be dominated by the braking torque associated with a spinning magnetic field. Assuming this mechanism is responsible for the observed spin-down in Swift J1756, we can compute the magnetic dipole moment as (Spitkovsky 2006) Equation (7) where α is the misalignment angle between the rotational and magnetic poles. Considering α = 0°–90°, we then find a magnetic field strength of $B\simeq (4\mbox{--}6)\times {10}^{8}$ G at the stellar magnetic poles. This magnetic field strength estimate is in line with those obtained for other accreting millisecond pulsars (see Mukherjee et al. 2015 and references therein). 4.2. Orbit Evolution The observed long-term binary evolution of Swift J1756 is consistent with this source having a constant orbital period and a lower limit on the evolutionary timescale of Equation (8) Binary evolution theory predicts that systems of this type evolve due to angular momentum loss through gravitational radiation (Kraft et al. 1962; Rappaport et al. 1982; Verbunt 1993). For conservative mass transfer, the binary period derivative is given by di Salvo et al. (2008), Equation (9) where MNS is the neutron star mass, $q={M}_{C}/{M}_{\mathrm{NS}}$ is the binary mass ratio, and −1/3 < n < 1 is the mass–radius index of the companion star. Depending on the source inclination, Krimm et al. (2007b) derived a companion mass of ${M}_{C}\,=0.007\mbox{--}0.022\,{M}_{\odot }$ for a neutron star mass of 1.4 ${M}_{\odot }$. For a neutron star mass of 2.2 ${M}_{\odot }$, the allowed range increased to ${M}_{C}=0.009\mbox{--}0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$. In both cases, they assumed an upper limit on the inclination of i < 85°, motivated by the fact that Swift J1756 does not show eclipses in its light curve. Accounting for the extreme cases of stellar masses and n, the binary may either be contracting or expanding. In either case, however, the rate of change is limited to $| {\dot{P}}_{b}| \lesssim 7\times {10}^{-14}$ s s−1, which is well below the upper limit obtained in this work. Although the binary evolution timescale we obtain for Swift J1756 is consistent with theory, it is worth noting that this is not generally true for low-mass X-ray binaries (see Patruno et al. 2017, for a comprehensive discussion). The AMXP SAX J1808.4–3658, in particular, has been found to evolve on a much shorter timescale, with a first derivative on the orbital period of $3.5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1 (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno et al. 2012; Sanna et al. 2017a). Two models have been proposed to explain this discrepancy: highly nonconservative mass transfer due to irradiation of the companion star by the pulsar (di Salvo et al. 2008; Burderi et al. 2009), and spin–orbit coupling in the companion star (Hartman et al. 2008, 2009). While the latter depends on the companion star, and may vary from source to source, the former should operate in all AMXPs (see also Patruno 2017; Sanna et al. 2017c), including Swift J1756. The spin-down luminosity impinging on the companion star can be estimated as Equation (10) where ${\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}$ is the ablation luminosity, RL2 is the Roche lobe radius of the companion (Eggleton 1983), and a the binary separation. The irradiation fraction is $f={\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}/{\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{sd}}$, which, accounting for the range of allowed neutron star and companion masses, evaluates to f = 0.15%–0.35%. The associated mass loss for the companion is given by Equation (11) such that, assuming an efficiency of η = 100%, ${\dot{M}}_{C}\,\sim -3\times {10}^{-10}\,{M}_{\odot }$ yr−1. The effect of this mass loss on the orbital period follows through the relation (Frank et al. 2002) Equation (12) giving a period derivative due to mass loss of ${\dot{P}}_{b,\mathrm{ML}}\,=5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1. This value is well above our limit on the period derivative. Hence, in order for this mechanism to be consistent with our observations of Swift J1756, the efficiency at which the companion star converts the incident luminosity into mass loss must be η < 15%. This value is very different from the 40% required in SAX J1808.4–3658 (Patruno et al. 2016) and is instead in line with the <5% efficiency determined for IGR J00291+5934 (Patruno 2017). This work was supported by NASA through the NICER mission and the Astrophysics Explorers Program, and made use of data and software provided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center (HEASARC). P.B. was supported by an NPP fellowship at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. D.A. acknowledges support from the Royal Society.

Bult, Peter↗

Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

Ramberg, I. B.↗

Experimental investigation of an RNA sequence space

Modern rRNAs are the historic consequence of an ongoing evolutionary exploration of a sequence space. These extant sequences belong to a special subset of the sequence space that is comprised only of those primary sequences that can validly perform the biological function(s) required of the particular RNA. If it were possible to readily identify all such valid sequences, stochastic predictions could be made about the relative likelihood of various evolutionary pathways available to an RNA. Herein an experimental system which can assess whether a particular sequence is likely to have validity as a eubacterial 5S rRNA is described. A total of ten naturally occurring, and hence known to be valid, sequences and two point mutants of unknown validity were used to test the usefulness of the approach. Nine of the ten valid sequences tested positive whereas both mutants tested as clearly defective. The tenth valid sequence gave results that would be interpreted as reflecting a borderline status were the answer not known. These results demonstrate that it is possible to experimentally determine which sequences in local regions of the sequence space are potentially valid 5S rRNAs.

Lee, Youn-Hyung↗

Adaptation, plant evolution, and the fossil record

The importance of adaptation in determining patterns of evolution has become an important focus of debate in evolutionary biology. As it pertains to paleobotany, the issue is whether or not adaptive evolution mediated by natural selection is sufficient to explain the stratigraphic distributions of taxa and character states observed in the plant fossil record. One means of addressing this question is the functional evaluation of stratigraphic series of plant organs set in the context of paleoenvironmental change and temporal patterns of floral composition within environments. For certain organ systems, quantitative estimates of biophysical performance can be made on the basis of structures preserved in the fossil record. Performance estimates for plants separated in time or space can be compared directly. Implicit in different hypotheses of the forces that shape the evolutionary record (e.g. adaptation, mass extinction, rapid environmental change, chance) are predictions about stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental trends in the efficacy of functional performance. Existing data suggest that following the evolution of a significant structural innovation, adaptation for improved functional performance can be a major determinant of evolutionary changes in plants; however, there are structural and development limits to functional improvement, and once these are reached, the structure in question may no longer figure strongly in selection until and unless a new innovation evolves. The Silurian-Devonian paleobotanical record is consistent with the hypothesis that the succession of lowland floodplain dominants preserved in the fossil record of this interval was determined principally by the repeated evolution of new taxa that rose to ecological importance because of competitive advantages conferred by improved biophysical performance. This does not seem to be equally true for Carboniferous-Jurassic dominants of swamp and lowland floodplain environments. In these cases, environmental disruption appears to have been a major factor in shaping the fossil record. This does not mean that continuing adaptation was not important during this interval, but it may indicate that adaptive evolution was strongest in environments other than those best represented in the paleobotanical record.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

On the Origin and Evolution of Stellar Chromospheres, Coronae and Winds

The final report discusses work completed on proposals to construct state-of-the-art, theoretical, two-component, chromospheric models for single stars of different spectral types and different evolutionary status. We suggested to use these models to predict the level of the "basal flux", the observed range of variation of chromospheric activity for a given spectral type, and the decrease of this activity with stellar age. In addition, for red giants and supergiants, we also proposed to construct self-consistent, purely theoretical, chromosphere-wind models, and investigate the origin of "dividing lines" in the H-R diagram. In the report, we list the following six specific goals for the first and second year of the proposed research and then describe the completed work: (1) To calculate the acoustic and magnetic wave energy fluxes for stars located in different regions of the H-R diagram; (2) To investigate the transfer of this non-radiative energy through stellar photospheres and to estimate the amount of energy that reaches the chromosphere; (3) To identify major sources of radiative losses in stellar chromospheres and calculate the amount of emitted energy; (4) To use (1) through (3) to construct purely theoretical, two-component, chromospheric models based on the local energy balance. The models will be constructed for stars of different spectral types and different evolutionary status; (5) To explain theoretically the "basal flux", the location of stellar temperature minima and the observed range of chromospheric activity for stars of the same spectral type; and (6) To construct self-consistent, time-dependent stellar wind models based on the momentum deposition by finite amplitude Alfven waves.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

Shaping the Dust Mass-Star-Formation Rate Relation

There is a remarkably tight relation between the observationally inferred dust masses and star-formation rates (SFRs) of Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies, M dust ∝ SFR 1.11(exp). Here we extend the M dust-SFR relation to the high end and show that it bends over at very large SFRs (i.e., dust masses are lower than predicted for a given SFR). We identify several distinct evolutionary processes in the diagram: (1) a star-bursting phase in which dust builds up rapidly at early times. The maximum attainable dust mass in this process is the cause of the bend-over of the relation. A high dust-formation efficiency, a bottom-light initial mass function, and negligible supernova shock dust destruction are required to produce sufficiently high dust masses. (2) A quiescent star-forming phase in which the subsequent parallel decline in dust mass and SFR gives rise to the M dust-SFR relation, through astration and dust destruction. The dust-to-gas ratio is approximately constant along the relation. We show that the power-law slope of the M dust-SFR relation is inversely proportional to the global Schmidt-Kennicutt law exponent (i.e., ~0.9) in simple chemical evolution models. (3) A quenching phase which causes star formation to drop while the dust mass stays roughly constant or drops proportionally. Combined with merging, these processes, as well as the range in total baryonic mass, give rise to a complex population of the diagram which adds significant scatter to the original M dust-SFR relation. (4) At very high redshifts, a population of galaxies located significantly below the local relation is predicted.

Shaping↗

Tests of two convection theories for red giant and red supergiant envelopes

Two theories of stellar envelope convection are considered here in the context of red giants and red supergiants of intermediate to high mass: Boehm-Vitense's standard mixing-length theory (MLT) and Canuto & Mazzitelli's new theory incorporating the full spectrum of turbulence (FST). Both theories assume incompressible convection. Two formulations of the convective mixing length are also evaluated: l proportional to the local pressure scale height (H(sub P)) and l proportional to the distance from the upper boundary of the convection zone (z). Applications to test both theories are made by calculating stellar evolutionary sequences into the red zone (z). Applications to test both theories are made by calculating stellar evolutionary sequences into the red phase of core helium burning. Since the theoretically predicted effective temperatures for cool stars are known to be sensitive to the assigned value of the mixing length, this quantity has been individually calibrated for each evolutionary sequence. The calibration is done in a composite Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for the red giant and red supergiant members of well-observed Galactic open clusters. The MLT model requires the constant of proportionality for the convective mixing length to vary by a small but statistically significant amount with stellar mass, whereas the FST model succeeds in all cases with the mixing lenghth simply set equal to z. The structure of the deep stellar interior, however, remains very nearly unaffected by the choices of convection theory and mixing lenghth. Inside the convective envelope itself, a density inversion always occurs, but is somewhat smaller for the convectively more efficient MLT model. On physical grounds the FST model is preferable, and seems to alleviate the problem of finding the proper mixing length.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project

An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

Winston, M. M.↗

Lithium in the most extreme halo stars - Trends with metallicity

A grid of extremely metal-poor stellar evolutionary tracks (Z = 0.00001) is constructed to compare the predicted lithium abundance depletion to observations of the lithium abundance in correspondingly metal-poor stars (Fe/H = -3.3), and, combined with an earlier work to investigate trends of lithium isochrones with metal abundance. Lithium abundances in the most extreme halo stars hint at the possibility of small downward slope toward lower T(eff) in the flat Li-T(eff) relation (the Spite lithium plateau) observed in slightly less extreme stars; the models also predict this. In the cool star region of the Li-T(eff) plane, higher metallicity lithium isochromes are cooler at fixed lithium abundance, consistent with the observations. Current data thus agree well with the lithium trends from standard model.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗

Testing and Analysis of NEXT Ion Engine Discharge Cathode Assembly Wear

Experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to predict the wear of the discharge cathode keeper in the NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster. The ion current to the keeper was found to be highly dependent upon the beam current, and the average beam current density was nearly identical to that of the NSTAR thruster for comparable beam current density. The ion current distribution was highly peaked toward the keeper orifice. A deterministic wear assessment predicted keeper orifice erosion to the same diameter as the cathode tube after processing 375 kg of xenon. A rough estimate of discharge cathode assembly life limit due to sputtering indicated that the current design exceeds the qualification goal of 405 kg. Probabilistic wear analysis showed that the plasma potential and the sputter yield contributed most to the uncertainty in the wear assessment. It was recommended that fundamental experimental and modeling efforts focus on accurately describing the plasma potential and the sputtering yield.

Domonkos, Matthew T.↗

The effect of Livermore OPAL opacities on the evolutionary masses of RR Lyrae stars

We have investigated the effect of the new Livermore OPAL opacities on the evolution of horizontal-branch (HB) stars. This work was motivated by the recent stellar pulsation calculations using the new Livermore opacities, which suggest that the masses of double-mode RR Lyrae stars are 0.1-0.2 solar mass larger than those based on earlier opacities. Unlike the pulsation calculations, we find that the effect of opacity change on the evolution of HB stars is not significant. In particular, the effect of the mean masses of RR Lyrae stars is very small, showing a decrease of only 0.01-0.02 solar mass compared to the models based on old Cox-Stewart opacities. Consequently, with the new Livermore OPAL opacities, both the stellar pulsation and evolution models now predict approximately the same masses for the RR Lyrae stars. Our evolutionary models suggest that the mean masses of the RR Lyrae stars are about 0.76 and about 0.71 solar mass for M15 (Oosterhoff group II) and M3 (group I), respectively. If (alpha/Fe) = 0.4, these values are decreased by about 0.03 solar mass. Variations of the mean masses of RR Lyrae stars with HB morphology and metallicity are also presented.

Yi, Sukyoung↗

Engineering in the 21st century

Reasonable evolutionary trends in federal outlays for aerospace research and development predict a continuing decline in real resources (1970 dollars) until the mid eighties, and a growth thereafter to the 1970 level by 2000, still well below the 1966 peak. Employment levels will parallel this trend with no shortage of available personnel foreseen. These trends characterize a maturing industry. Shifts in outlook toward the economic use of resources, rather than minimum risk at any cost, and toward missions aligned with societal needs and broad national goals will accompany these trends. These shifts in outlook will arise in part in academia, and will, in turn, influence engineering education. By 2000, space technology will have achieved major advances in the management of information, in space transportation, in space structures, and in energy. The economics of space systems must be the primary consideration if the space program foreseen for the 21st century is to become an actuality.

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.↗

Ship and satellite bio-optical research in the California Bight

Mesoscale biological patterns and processes in productive coastal waters were studied. The physical and biological processes leading to chlorophyll variability were investigated. The ecological and evolutionary significance of this variability, and its relation to the prediction of fish recruitment and marine mammal distributions was studied. Seasonal primary productivity (using chlorophyll as an indication of phytoplankton biomass) for the entire Southern California Bight region was assessed. Complementary and contemporaneous ship and satellite (Nimbus 7-CZCS) bio-optical data from the Southern California Bight and surrounding waters were obtained and analyzed. These data were also utilized for the development of multi-platform sampling strategies and the optimization of algorithms for the estimation of phytoplankton biomass and primary production from satellite imagery.

Smith, R. C.↗

The Search for the Gamma Lyrid Progenitor

On 5 February 2015, a previously unknown meteor shower, the γ Lyrids were observed for the first time. Because of the Sun-Earth-Moon viewing geometry, however, stream members were observed almost exclusively by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). The γ Lyrids did not appear again until 2018, and that outburst was stronger than in 2015. This study analyzed the 2015 and 2018 CMOR data in order to determine the orbital parameters of the stream in an attempt to determine the γ Lyrid parent body. Of primary importance is to determine if the γ Lyrids will recur in a predictable manner. Two bodies, with dramatically different orbital parameters and evolutionary behaviors, emerged as the leading candidates: 2003 EH1 and 1854 R1.

Grazier, Kevin R.↗

Ultrahigh energy neutrinos from galactic neutron stars

An attempt is made to estimate the production rate of ultrahigh energy (UHE) neutrinos from galactic neutron stars. The statistics of various stellar populations are reviewed as well as an evolutionary scheme linking several neutron star environments. An observational test for predicting stellar evolution is made using two mass ratio intervals of less than 0.3 and greater than or approximately equal to 0.3, which is supported by kinematical evidence. Attention is given to the problem of the target material that is required by UHE protons accelerated from the pulsar's surface to their rotational kinetic energy, and to the detectability of neutron stars in the UHE neutrinos by employing the deep underwater muon and neutrino detector (DUMAND) array.

Helfand, D. J.↗

System model development for nuclear thermal propulsion

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. This is crucial for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, including startup, shutdown, and post operation cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce the design, testing, and cost and time required for the technology to reach flight-ready status. Since Oct. 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD), and NASA have initiated critical technology development efforts for NTP systems to be used on Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions to the Moon and Mars. This paper presents the strategy and progress of an interagency NASA/DOE/DOD team for NTP system modeling. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs to simulate various NTP systems. The first level will provide rapid, parameterized calculations of overall system performance. Succeeding computer programs will provide analysis of each component in sufficient detail to guide the design teams and experimental efforts. The computer programs will allow simulation of the entire system to allow prediction of the integrated performance. An interagency team was formed for this task to use the best capabilities available and to assure appropriate peer review.

Walton, James T.↗

Development of NASA/DOE NTP System Performance Models

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. The ability to predict the system performance is critical for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing, as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, such as start-up, shut-down and after-cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce testing, cost and time required for the technology to again reach flight-ready status. An integrated NASA/DOE team was formed in late 1991 to develop and implement a strategy for modeling NTP systems. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs, which vary in detail, to simulate NTP systems based on either prismatic, particle or advanced fuel forms. This paper presents an overview of the models under development by the interagency team. In addition, the status of the development and validation efforts for the Level 1 steady-state parametric model is discussed.

Walton, James T.↗

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗